Short Answer

EUR/USD is likely to trade above 1.127 on September 25, 2026, though a hawkish Federal Reserve and widening policy-rate differentials contribute to a generally bearish outlook for the pair (99.0%).

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This contract's probability dropped sharply following reports on September 24 that Federal Reserve official Williams warned of more interest rate hikes. Hawkish Fed commentary typically strengthens the dollar, putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The market price collapsed from 40% to 5.0% on that day, directly coinciding with the news.

The preceding rally to 40% on September 23 is not explained by any specific development in the provided information. The moves have occurred on thin volume, suggesting low liquidity may be amplifying price swings in response to news flow. The contract settles based on the official European Central Bank reference rate, not a specific spot price at the time of expiry.

EUR/USD is expected above 1.135, but faces significant technical resistance above 1.137.
A hawkish Federal Reserve and widening policy differential favor USD strength.
Options market positioning indicates an upside cap near 1.1450.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
Above 1.145	5.0%	9.5%	Significant technical resistance and bearish sentiment suggest an upside cap, making upward movement unlikely.
Above 1.147	5.0%	9.5%	Significant technical resistance and bearish sentiment make substantial upward movement above 1.147 unlikely.
Above 1.143	29.0%	19.6%	Bearish bias makes sustaining above this threshold less likely due to identified technical resistance.
Above 1.139	35.0%	24.4%	Bearish bias makes sustaining above this threshold less likely due to identified technical resistance.
Above 1.141	11.0%	19.6%	Bearish bias makes sustaining above this threshold less likely due to identified technical resistance.

Current Context

The EUR/USD prediction market settles on ECB data, not a 5 PM spot. A prediction market on EUR/USD for September 25, 2026, lists brackets at 1.10, 1.105, and 1.11, with trading concluding at 7:10 AM CT on the event date ^[1]. Settlement for this contract relies on the ECB-reported rate, not a 5:00 PM ET New York spot quote ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. No verified EUR/USD fixing or spot price for Friday, September 25, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT was retrieved ^[5]. The Federal Reserve H.10 source available is a historical rate page with a September 14, 2026, release date, not a September 25 5 PM quote ^[5]. September 25, 2026, is a Friday; the Federal Reserve calendar does not list an H.10 foreign-exchange-rate release for that day at 5:00 PM EDT; the next is Monday, September 28 at 4:15 PM EDT ^[6]^[7]. Therefore, an official Fed H.10 rate should not be assumed to equal a 5 PM EDT market quote ^[6]^[7]. No reliable source in the retrieved results states the actual EUR/USD price at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2026, as this timestamp is in the future relative to the research date ^[8]^[9]^[10].

EUR/USD traded near 1.1375–1.1400, pressured by bearish factors. As of September 24, 2026, the pair faced downward pressure from a strengthening US dollar, hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, expectations for further Fed hikes, and German political risk ^[11]^[2]^[4]. Near-term technical forecasts indicated bearish sentiment ^[12]^[13]. Support levels were identified near 1.1450, then 1.1368/1.1300, while a material improvement in the outlook required a recovery above 1.1545–1.1600 ^[12]^[13]. Daily analysis focused immediate downside near 1.1360 ^[13]. The policy-rate differential favored the dollar, with the Fed target range reported at 3.75%–4.00% after a September 16 hike, compared to the ECB deposit rate of 2.50% after a September 10 hike ^[3]^[13]. US September Composite PMI registered 58.4, while the euro-area Composite PMI was 53.1 ^[3]^[13]. Recent commentary noted upside inflation and geopolitical risks; Governor Waller stated persistent inflation could necessitate a hike ^[14]. Cboe reported rising oil prices, Middle East tensions, and an upside core-inflation surprise, with OIS-implied odds of a Fed hike increasing from 58% to 90% ahead of the September FOMC ^[15]. The September 15–16, 2026, FOMC meeting projections, released September 16, showed median federal-funds-rate projections of 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027 ^[16]^[17]^[18]. S&P Global Ratings' September 23, 2026, Europe outlook offered qualitative regional context, but did not provide a numeric EUR/USD forecast ^[19].

Near-term outlook points to a downside bias for EUR/USD. A reasonable scenario estimate for the September 25, 2026, 5 PM ET spot rate was approximately 1.13–1.145, with a bearish central estimate around 1.138 ^[12]^[20]^[11]^[2]^[13]. This represents an analytical projection and not a quoted market price or guaranteed forecast ^[12]^[20]^[11]^[2]^[13]. Scheduled catalysts include US and euro-area data releases, Fed communications, ECB speakers, the October 28 Fed decision, and the October 29 ECB decision ^[2]^[3]^[4]. The combination of reported U.S. inflation/rate-hike risk and geopolitical/oil volatility creates a near-term downside bias for EUR/USD against a neutral baseline ^[19]^[16]^[14]^[15]. The retrieved evidence is insufficient to justify a point forecast ^[19]^[16]^[14]^[15]. A broad planning range would be ±0.5% around the verified September 24 spot rate, which was not retrieved; no exact 5 PM value should be asserted ^[19]^[16]^[14]^[15].

Sources (20)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 1.137

📉 September 24, 2026: 54.0pp drop

Price decreased from 94.0% to 40.0%

What happened: The 54.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price was primarily driven by traditional financial news and macroeconomic factors rather than social media activity. The main catalyst for the EUR/USD decline on September 24, 2026, was a sharp repricing toward additional Federal Reserve tightening, including strong September U.S. flash PMI data, hawkish commentary from New York Fed President John Williams, and rising Treasury yields ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]. These events increased market-implied October hike odds to nearly 70%, strengthening the dollar and pushing EUR/USD lower ^[4]. There is no verified social media post or social media-driven catalyst identified as responsible for this significant market movement ^[1]^[2]^[8]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7], indicating social media was irrelevant to the primary driver.

Outcome: Above 1.141

📉 September 23, 2026: 79.0pp drop

Price decreased from 90.0% to 11.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was traditional news and announcements signaling a more hawkish U.S. monetary policy and stronger U.S. economic outlook. On September 23, 2026, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr indicated expectations for further rate adjustments due to persistent inflation, complementing stronger-than-expected US flash S&P Global PMI data that increased market-implied odds of an October Fed hike ^[9]^[10]^[11]^[12]. These factors strengthened the USD and significantly pressured EUR/USD downwards, making the "Above 1.141" outcome much less likely ^[9]^[13]^[12]. No social media activity was identified as influencing this price movement, indicating it was irrelevant.

Outcome: Above 1.147

📉 September 22, 2026: 17.0pp drop

Price decreased from 50.0% to 33.0%

What happened: The 17.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price for EUR/USD to be "Above 1.147" on September 22, 2026, was primarily driven by conventional macroeconomic and political factors. The euro declined due to a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and rising US interest rate expectations, weakening Eurozone consumer confidence, German political uncertainty after regional election losses, and French fiscal concerns ^[14]^[15]^[16]^[17]. Geopolitical developments also acted as a secondary catalyst ^[18]^[19]. Social media was irrelevant, as no reliable evidence was found of any social media activity causing or significantly influencing this price movement ^[14]^[20]^[15]^[16]^[17]^[18]^[19].

Outcome: Above 1.145

📈 September 21, 2026: 63.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 64.0%

What happened: No specific social media activity was identified as a catalyst for the reported 63.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on September 21, 2026 ^[21]. While the EUR/USD pair was influenced by broader macro and geopolitical factors such as a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, elevated US yields, Middle East risks, and Eurozone economic concerns ^[22], these drivers do not specifically account for the prediction market's sudden spike. Consequently, the primary driver for this particular market movement could not be confirmed from the available information ^[21], rendering social media irrelevant as a driver in this instance.

Sources (22)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This prediction market resolves based on the EURUSD price at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25. A 'Yes' outcome is triggered if the EURUSD price is strictly above the market's specified threshold, and a 'No' outcome is triggered if it is at or below that threshold. The provided content does not detail any specific data sources or unusual settlement conditions.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
Above 1.127	$0.99	$0.10	99%
Above 1.135	$0.98	$0.21	86%
Above 1.137	$0.68	$0.69	40%
Above 1.139	$0.67	$0.65	35%
Above 1.143	$0.21	$0.96	29%
Above 1.149	$0.19	$0.97	15%
Above 1.141	$0.23	$0.96	11%
Above 1.157	$0.05	$0.98	10%
Above 1.151	$0.19	$0.97	8%
Above 1.153	$0.18	$0.95	7%
Above 1.145	$0.20	$0.98	5%
Above 1.147	$0.45	$0.98	5%
Above 1.159	$0.05	$0.99	5%
Above 1.165	$0.03	$0.99	1%
Above 1.129	$0.99	$0.24	0%
Above 1.131	$0.99	$0.25	0%
Above 1.133	$0.97	$0.39	0%
Above 1.155	$0.16	$0.98	0%
Above 1.161	$0.05	$0.99	0%
Above 1.163	$0.05	$0.99	0%

Market Discussion

As of September 24, 2026, the EUR/USD was trading near 1.1370–1.1395 with bearish momentum, influenced by strong U.S. data, hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, and European political/energy risks ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Technical commentary identifies downside support around 1.1353–1.1368, while some trader forecasts are bearish, targeting 1.13 or 1.12, though an oversold bounce toward 1.1466 is considered possible ^[2]^[4]^[5]^[6]. The evidence-based estimate for the September 25, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT fixing is approximately 1.133–1.142, with a bearish central estimate near 1.136–1.138 ^[7]^[1]^[2]^[3]^[8].

Sources (8)

5. Trust Index

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score77Good

Market integrity is low (65), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score32High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score68Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. How do the latest monetary policy statements from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank compare on forward guidance for Q4 2026?

Fed Funds Target Range	3.75%-4.00% (September 16, 2026) ^[1]
ECB Deposit Rate	2.50% (September 10, 2026) ^[2]^[3]^[4]
Fed Median Year-End Rate Projection	4.1% ^[1]

The Federal Reserve signals a tightening bias for Q4 2026. The latest statement from the Federal Reserve implies a stronger directional tightening signal for the fourth quarter of 2026, primarily through its rate projections and officials' distribution, even though explicit forward guidance was deliberately withheld ^[1]^[3]. In its September 16, 2026, statement, the Fed increased the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% ^[1]. Projections indicate a median year-end rate of 4.1%, with 16 of 18 officials foreseeing at least one additional hike by year-end. Inflation is projected at 3.7% in 2026 ^[1]^[5].

Conversely, the European Central Bank (ECB) preserves optionality, emphasizing data-dependent decisions. The ECB's guidance explicitly maintains optionality for Q4 2026, underscoring that future decisions will remain data-dependent and made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, without any pre-commitment to a specific rate path ^[2]^[3]^[4]. The ECB also raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 ^[2]^[3]^[4]. This action was prompted by concerns that inflation pressures related to the Middle East conflict will keep inflation significantly above target for an extended period. Headline inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026 ^[2]^[6]^[7].

Policy divergence between central banks favors the U.S. dollar. This asymmetry in communication—with the Fed implying tightening despite lacking explicit guidance, and the ECB maintaining a less directional commitment despite a hawkish inflation shock and recent hike—creates a policy differential currently supporting the dollar ^[1]^[2]^[8]^[4]. With the Fed funds ceiling at 4.00% and the ECB deposit rate at 2.50%, a 150 basis point gap exists ^[9]. While this situation is broadly dollar-supportive and euro-negative, the ECB's flexible, meeting-by-meeting framework introduces upside risk for EUR/USD should euro-area inflation necessitate additional rate hikes or if U.S. economic data weakens ^[3]^[8]^[4].

Sources (9)

7. What key economic data releases scheduled for September 25 could introduce last-minute volatility for EUR/USD before the 5:00 PM ET settlement?

German GfK confidence	-26.6 (indicative prior value) ^[1]^[2]
Eurozone M3 growth	3.4% year over year (indicative prior value) ^[1]^[2]
U.S. durable-goods growth	1.1% month over month (indicative prior value) ^[1]^[2]

Key U.S. economic data releases could significantly impact EUR/USD volatility. These include the 8:30 a.m. ET U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders, followed by the 10:00 a.m. ET final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations ^[3]^[1]^[2]. These U.S. releases are considered the highest risk for volatility as they occur within the U.S. trading session and can influence Treasury yields and the dollar.

European data also poses a risk, with no scheduled FOMC decision. Earlier Euro-area releases such as German GfK Consumer Climate/Confidence around 12:00 a.m. ET, and Eurozone M3 money supply and private-loans data around 2:00 a.m. ET could affect EUR/USD ^[3]^[1]^[2]. While these are typically less market-moving than U.S. growth and sentiment data, materially surprising results could still impact the currency pair, particularly by shifting expectations for European economic activity and European Central Bank policy. The Federal Reserve's calendar for September 2026 does not indicate an FOMC decision for September 25, 2026, meaning the identified catalysts for volatility are economic data releases, not a routine Fed rate announcement ^[4].

Prior values offer context but are not firm consensus estimates. Indicative prior values for some releases include German GfK confidence at -26.6, Eurozone M3 growth at 3.4% year over year, U.S. durable-goods growth at 1.1% month over month, and final Michigan sentiment at 51.7 ^[1]^[2]. It is noted, however, that these are not firm consensus estimates and forecast fields may still be subject to revision.

Sources (4)

8. What do key technical indicators suggest for EUR/USD support and resistance levels heading into the September 25 market close?

EUR/USD Base Case Range (Sept 25)	1.1325–1.1420 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]
Bearish Tilt Target	1.1360–1.1370 ^[2]^[4]^[6]
Daily RSI	near 25.47/oversold ^[4]^[5]

EUR/USD faces a bearish outlook for the September 25 market close. Key technical indicators suggest a base-case range for EUR/USD on September 25 at 5:00 PM EDT of approximately 1.1325–1.1420, with a bearish tilt toward 1.1360–1.1370 unless the price reclaims 1.1414–1.1420 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]. This outlook is primarily influenced by a bearish H4/daily structure and a fundamental bias favoring USD strength ^[2]^[4]^[6].

Critical resistance and support levels define potential price movement. Immediate resistance levels are clustered between 1.1400–1.1420/25, with further resistance observed at 1.1415, 1.1433–1.1440, and 1.1470–1.1480 ^[3]^[4]^[5]. A sustained breach above 1.1420–1.1440 would reduce the immediate bearish pressure, but not necessarily reverse the overall trend. Near-term support is concentrated at 1.1370–1.1360, followed by 1.1353–1.1355, and the significant area of 1.1323–1.1325/1.1324 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]. A break below 1.1323 could expose 1.1244, with 1.1300 serving as an intervening psychological level ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5].

Current momentum and fundamental factors reinforce a bearish sentiment. Momentum indicators are reported as stretched, with the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 25.47 (indicating oversold conditions) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remaining below zero ^[4]^[5]. This implies the potential for a brief bounce, yet it primarily confirms ongoing bearish momentum rather than signaling a reliable bottom ^[4]^[5]. The fundamental bias for September 25 largely favored USD strength due to stronger U.S. September PMI data, elevated Treasury yields, and increasing expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, all contributing to pressure on EUR/USD ^[2]^[6]^[4]^[5]. Intraday volatility may arise from scheduled catalysts including German GfK consumer confidence, euro-area M3, U.S. durable-goods data, and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading ^[7]^[8]^[9].

Sources (9)

9. Which publicly available data feeds provide the most reliable quotes for tracking the EUR/USD spot rate around the specific 5:00 PM ET settlement time?

Direct Match Benchmark	Bloomberg BFIX NYK 5:00 PM ^[1]^[2]
Public API Alternative	OANDA v20 candle endpoint (aligns 17:00 America/New_York) ^[3]^[4]
BFIX Spot Fixing Publication	Within 15 seconds ^[1]^[2]

For tracking the EUR/USD spot rate at the 5:00 PM ET settlement time, the Bloomberg BFIX NYK 5:00 PM service is identified as the most direct match, provided market regulations permit the use of a licensed benchmark. This service reliably calculates fixings every 30 minutes, publishing USD-based spot fixings within 15 seconds, and operates until Friday 5:00 PM New York time ^[1]^[2]. Its methodology involves forming a composite rate by using median bid/offer inputs derived from executable Bloomberg FXGO data ^[2].

OANDA provides a robust public alternative; other sources are less suitable. The OANDA v20 candle endpoint offers a strong, publicly accessible solution, supporting EUR_USD bid, mid, and ask components with explicit daily alignment at 17:00 in America/New_York ^[3]^[4]. Users should utilize the final completed 1-minute or 5-second candle that covers 17:00:00 EDT to accurately record the bid, ask, and midpoint ^[4]. In contrast, other commonly referenced sources are less appropriate due to their differing times or purposes; these include WM/Reuters (4:00 PM London) ^[5]^[6], ECB reference rates (14:10–14:15 CET, information-only) ^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10], and Federal Reserve H.10/FRED data (noon New York buying rates, retrospective) ^[11]^[12]^[13].

Reproducible settlement requires clear definition of source, value, timezone, and timestamp. To ensure reproducible settlement, it is critical to explicitly define the data source, the type of value being used (e.g., bid, ask, mid, trade, or a specific fixing), the exact timezone (America/New_York), and a precise timestamp or a clearly defined window rule for the rate capture ^[14]^[1]^[2].

Sources (14)

10. How does options market positioning for late September expiries reflect trader sentiment regarding a large price swing in EUR/USD?

Key Option Strikes	1.1400 and 1.1450 (Sep. 23, 2026) ^[1]^[2]
Market Outlook (late Sep)	Bearish for EUR/USD, but not crash-like ^[3]^[4]
Downside Continuation Target	1.1368 if 1.1450 support breaks ^[3]^[4]

Options positioning suggests a constrained price range for EUR/USD. The observable options market positioning for late September expiries indicates a nearby-strike pin or range with a downside skew, rather than a market-wide expectation of a large two-sided price swing in EUR/USD ^[1]^[5]^[3]. Available evidence for September 23, 2026, shows concentrations near spot at 1.1400 and 1.1450 ^[1]^[2]. These strikes are described as likely to pull the price towards 1.1400 or cap upside near 1.1450 ahead of the New York cut ^[1]^[2]. Options positioning should be interpreted through dealer gamma, where positive gamma generally leads dealers to buy dips and sell rallies, which can dampen realized volatility and pin spot near large strikes ^[5]^[2].

The market had a bearish bias with significant data gaps. The broader market backdrop leading into September 25 was bearish for EUR/USD, though not unambiguously suggesting a crash ^[3]^[4]. Forecasts identified support around 1.1450, with a potential downside continuation target near 1.1368 if that support broke. Elevated U.S. yields and European energy risks pressured the euro, although oversold conditions left room for a rebound ^[3]^[4]. However, the research sources consulted do not provide a verified September 25, 2026, EUR/USD dealer-gamma sign or a strike-by-strike open-interest dataset ^[5]^[2]. Additionally, reliable contemporaneous September 25 expiry implied-volatility, risk-reversal, or open-interest figures were not exposed by the search results ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9].

A large move depends on key technical breaks and dealer behavior. A large market move would become more plausible only if EUR/USD broke the 1.1400 area and dealer gamma turned negative ^[1]^[5]^[3]. However, the cited data are insufficient to assign a probability to either outcome or to validate a specific prediction-market price ^[1]^[5]^[3]. The referenced prediction market resolves from the EUR/USD value published by Pyth at 5:00 p.m. ET on September 25, 2026, and venue-specific contract rules must not be conflated ^[10]^[11]^[12].

Sources (12)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The September 25, 2026 Robinhood EUR/USD prediction market settlement is based on the ECB-reported EUR/USD rate, with a final trade time of 7:10 a.m. CT (8:10 a.m. ET) ^[1]^[2]. No official source provides an EUR/USD fixing or tradable closing price for Friday, September 25, 2026, at exactly 5:00 p.m. EDT ^[3]^[4]^[5]. Immediate catalysts for September 25 include U.S. August PCE inflation, durable-goods orders, University of Michigan sentiment, and Fed communication ^[6]^[7]^[8]. PCE was expected near 2.7% headline and 2.9% core ^[6]. Routine U.S. releases on the target date include commercial paper at 1:00 p.m. EDT and H.15 and H.8 releases at 4:15 p.m. EDT ^[3]^[4].

The broader policy backdrop features central bank divergence. The Federal Reserve's September 15–16, 2026 FOMC was hawkish, raising its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% and projecting a 4.1% federal-funds rate at year-end 2026 ^[9]^[10]^[11]. This hawkish stance supports USD strength ^[9]^[10]. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on September 10 ^[12]. This widening Fed–ECB rate outlook applies bearish pressure on EUR/USD ^[7]. Analyst views varied, with ING assigning downside risk toward 1.1400 and possibly 1.1320, while MUFG saw possible EUR upside toward 1.2000 if the Fed held and ECB tightened ^[13]^[14].

As of September 24, EUR/USD traded around 1.1380, with published technical support approximately 1.1364–1.1400 and resistance near 1.1500–1.1570 ^[7]^[15]. The directional base case for EUR/USD into the requested timestamp is mildly bearish-to-neutral ^[9]^[10]. Key forward dates after September 25 include the next ECB meeting on October 29 and the next major Fed decision on October 28 ^[7]^[12]^[13]. These future policy meetings can materially reprice the EUR/USD rate differential ^[7]^[12]^[13].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: October 02, 2026
Closes: September 25, 2026

Sources (15)

12. Keep Exploring

IPO Tracker Companies preparing to go public, with the market's view on timing. More Foreign Exchange markets See more foreign exchange setups in the same theme. Browse all Financials markets Keep exploring adjacent financials markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

KXEURUSDAW-26SEP18-1.1710: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
KXEURUSDAW-26SEP18-1.1690: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
KXEURUSDAW-26SEP18-1.1670: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
KXEURUSDAW-26SEP18-1.1650: NO (Sep 18, 2026)
KXEURUSDAW-26SEP18-1.1630: NO (Sep 18, 2026)

EURUSD price on Sep 25 at 5:00 PM EDT

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: Above 1.137

📉 September 24, 2026: 54.0pp drop

Outcome: Above 1.141

📉 September 23, 2026: 79.0pp drop

Outcome: Above 1.147

📉 September 22, 2026: 17.0pp drop

Outcome: Above 1.145

📈 September 21, 2026: 63.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. How do the latest monetary policy statements from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank compare on forward guidance for Q4 2026?

7. What key economic data releases scheduled for September 25 could introduce last-minute volatility for EUR/USD before the 5:00 PM ET settlement?

8. What do key technical indicators suggest for EUR/USD support and resistance levels heading into the September 25 market close?

9. Which publicly available data feeds provide the most reliable quotes for tracking the EUR/USD spot rate around the specific 5:00 PM ET settlement time?

10. How does options market positioning for late September expiries reflect trader sentiment regarding a large price swing in EUR/USD?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: Above 1.137

📉 September 24, 2026: 54.0pp drop

Outcome: Above 1.141

📉 September 23, 2026: 79.0pp drop

Outcome: Above 1.147

📉 September 22, 2026: 17.0pp drop

Outcome: Above 1.145

📈 September 21, 2026: 63.0pp spike

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Key Dates & Catalysts

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