Grand Theft Auto VI: PS5 price
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~3d): Model probability for 'More than $70' surged +51.4pp, flipping its edge while model-led.
- Our model's overall edge against the market flipped +2.1pp, with confidence increasing +1.0pp.
- Model probabilities for 'More than $80' and 'More than $100' decreased, widening its edge.
- Rockstar Games announced GTA VI PS5 base price at $79.99 on June 24, 2026.
- GTA VI's development cost significantly surpasses prior major AAA releases.
- PS5 AAA game pricing in 2024 was not uniformly $79.99.
- Previous Rockstar titles launched with a standard $59.99 price.
- Rockstar set GTA VI's PS5 release for November 19, 2026.
- Preorders for Grand Theft Auto VI begin on June 25, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| More than $80 | 1.0% | 0.0% | Rockstar Games announced the base price for GTA VI is $79.99, not exceeding $80. |
| More than $70 | 99.0% | 100.0% | Rockstar Games announced the base price for GTA VI is $79.99, confirming it is above $70. |
| More than $100 | 1.0% | 0.0% | Rockstar Games announced the base price for GTA VI is $79.99, confirming it is not above $100. |
| More than $90 | 1.0% | 0.0% | Rockstar Games announced the base price for GTA VI is $79.99, confirming it is not above $90. |
| More than $60 | 99.0% | 100.0% | Rockstar Games announced the base price for GTA VI is $79.99, confirming it is above $60. |
Current Context
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: More than $70
📈 June 24, 2026: 42.0pp spike
Price increased from 57.0% to 99.0%
📈 June 22, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 49.0% to 59.0%
📈 June 20, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 37.0% to 49.0%
📈 June 19, 2026: 15.0pp spike
Price increased from 37.0% to 52.0%
Outcome: More than $80
📈 June 21, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 25.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A YES resolution occurs if the base game price of Grand Theft Auto VI for PS5 is announced to be above $80 USD; otherwise, it resolves NO. The market opened on February 8, 2025, at 10:00 am EST, and will close upon the game's price announcement, or by January 1, 2030, at 10:00 am EST, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. The outcome is verified by Rockstar Games, and insider trading by individuals with material non-public information or employed by source agencies is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| More than $60 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| More than $70 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| More than $100 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| More than $80 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| More than $90 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Traders widely anticipate the base game price of Grand Theft Auto VI for PS5 to be above $70, but there's a strong consensus it will not exceed $80. Key arguments for the "No" outcome on the price being "More than $80" cite reports, including from IGN, stating the price at $79.99. While one user suggested a much higher price for a "standard" edition, the prevailing sentiment and market odds strongly indicate that the base game will be priced at $79.99.
5. Trader Trust Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
More than $60PrimaryTrader Trust79Liquidity84Move Quality71Resolution90Quote Risk15Avoid Risk13
- Liquidity quality+16.8
- Feed & book health+16.2
- Resolution clarity+13.5
- Quote safety+12.8
- Move quality+10.7
- liquidity
- 84
- move_quality
- 71
- quote_risk
- 15
- resolution
- 90
- Spread tightness+40
- Recent trade activity+22.2
- 24h volume+21.5
- spread
- 1
- volume_24h
- 4447.60
- orderbook_depth_5lvl
- —
- recent_trades
- 50
- Move persistence+30
- Orderly vs noisy+23.4
- Volume confirmation+11.2
- Related-market confirmation+6.5
- net_move
- 0.02
- realized_vol
- 0.01
- volume_vs_median
- 0.50
- related_dir_agreement
- -0.50
- Rule specificity+40
- Settlement time clarity+25
- Lifecycle certainty+25
- rules_length
- 119
- clarity_signals
- 3
- series_clean_rate
- —
- Volatility+6.6
- Move-quality risk+5.4
- Approaching close+1.9
- Spread instability+1.6
- spread
- 1
- realized_vol
- 0.01
- hours_to_close
- 30889.80
- suggested_action
- Quote normally
- Liquidity risk+4
- Data coverage risk+2.8
- Volatility risk+2.1
- Staleness / coverage+1.5
- Resolution risk+1.5
- liquidity_score
- 84
- resolution_score
- 90
- candle_history_points
- 208
- has_orderbook_snapshot
- No
More than $90Trader Trust79Liquidity72Move Quality89Resolution90Quote Risk15Avoid Risk17
- Feed & book health+16.2
- Liquidity quality+14.4
- Resolution clarity+13.5
- Move quality+13.3
- Quote safety+12.8
- liquidity
- 72
- move_quality
- 89
- quote_risk
- 15
- resolution
- 90
- Spread tightness+40
- 24h volume+29.8
- Recent trade activity+2.7
- spread
- 1
- volume_24h
- 28842.70
- orderbook_depth_5lvl
- —
- recent_trades
- 0
- Move persistence+30
- Volume confirmation+25
- Orderly vs noisy+23.7
- Related-market confirmation+10
- net_move
- -0.04
- realized_vol
- 0.01
- volume_vs_median
- 33.32
- related_dir_agreement
- 0
- Rule specificity+40
- Settlement time clarity+25
- Lifecycle certainty+25
- rules_length
- 119
- clarity_signals
- 3
- series_clean_rate
- —
- Volatility+9.5
- Move-quality risk+2.1
- Approaching close+1.9
- Spread instability+1.6
- spread
- 1
- realized_vol
- 0.01
- hours_to_close
- 30889.80
- suggested_action
- Quote normally
- Liquidity risk+7
- Volatility risk+3.1
- Data coverage risk+2.8
- Staleness / coverage+1.5
- Resolution risk+1.5
- liquidity_score
- 72
- resolution_score
- 90
- candle_history_points
- 247
- has_orderbook_snapshot
- No
More than $100Trader Trust79Liquidity74Move Quality86Resolution90Quote Risk18Avoid Risk18
- Feed & book health+16.2
- Liquidity quality+14.8
- Resolution clarity+13.5
- Move quality+12.9
- Quote safety+12.3
- liquidity
- 74
- move_quality
- 86
- quote_risk
- 18
- resolution
- 90
- Spread tightness+40
- 24h volume+31.6
- Recent trade activity+2.7
- spread
- 1
- volume_24h
- 39708.40
- orderbook_depth_5lvl
- —
- recent_trades
- 0
- Move persistence+30
- Volume confirmation+25
- Orderly vs noisy+21.1
- Related-market confirmation+10
- net_move
- -0.02
- realized_vol
- 0.02
- volume_vs_median
- 51
- related_dir_agreement
- 0
- Rule specificity+40
- Settlement time clarity+25
- Lifecycle certainty+25
- rules_length
- 120
- clarity_signals
- 3
- series_clean_rate
- —
- Volatility+12
- Move-quality risk+2.6
- Approaching close+1.9
- Spread instability+1.6
- spread
- 1
- realized_vol
- 0.02
- hours_to_close
- 30889.80
- suggested_action
- Quote normally
- Liquidity risk+6.5
- Volatility risk+3.8
- Data coverage risk+2.8
- Staleness / coverage+1.5
- Resolution risk+1.5
- liquidity_score
- 74
- resolution_score
- 90
- candle_history_points
- 179
- has_orderbook_snapshot
- No
More than $80Trader Trust78Liquidity76Move Quality85Resolution90Quote Risk22Avoid Risk18
- Feed & book health+16.2
- Liquidity quality+15.2
- Resolution clarity+13.5
- Move quality+12.8
- Quote safety+11.7
- liquidity
- 76
- move_quality
- 85
- quote_risk
- 22
- resolution
- 90
- Spread tightness+40
- 24h volume+33.3
- Recent trade activity+2.7
- spread
- 1
- volume_24h
- 90608.30
- orderbook_depth_5lvl
- —
- recent_trades
- 0
- Move persistence+25.8
- Volume confirmation+25
- Orderly vs noisy+23.8
- Related-market confirmation+10
- net_move
- -0.10
- realized_vol
- 0.02
- volume_vs_median
- 281.27
- related_dir_agreement
- 0
- Rule specificity+40
- Settlement time clarity+25
- Lifecycle certainty+25
- rules_length
- 119
- clarity_signals
- 3
- series_clean_rate
- —
- Volatility+15.9
- Move-quality risk+2.8
- Approaching close+1.9
- Spread instability+1.6
- spread
- 1
- realized_vol
- 0.02
- hours_to_close
- 30889.80
- suggested_action
- Quote normally
- Liquidity risk+6
- Volatility risk+5.1
- Data coverage risk+2.8
- Staleness / coverage+1.5
- Resolution risk+1.5
- liquidity_score
- 76
- resolution_score
- 90
- candle_history_points
- 311
- has_orderbook_snapshot
- No
More than $70Trader Trust77Liquidity76Move Quality86Resolution90Quote Risk30Avoid Risk21
- Feed & book health+16.2
- Liquidity quality+15.2
- Resolution clarity+13.5
- Move quality+12.9
- Quote safety+10.5
- liquidity
- 76
- move_quality
- 86
- quote_risk
- 30
- resolution
- 90
- Spread tightness+40
- 24h volume+33.3
- Recent trade activity+2.7
- spread
- 1
- volume_24h
- 53670.10
- orderbook_depth_5lvl
- —
- recent_trades
- 0
- Move persistence+30
- Volume confirmation+25
- Orderly vs noisy+24.6
- Related-market confirmation+6.5
- net_move
- 0.58
- realized_vol
- 0.05
- volume_vs_median
- 35.67
- related_dir_agreement
- -0.50
- Rule specificity+40
- Settlement time clarity+25
- Lifecycle certainty+25
- rules_length
- 119
- clarity_signals
- 3
- series_clean_rate
- —
- Volatility+23.7
- Move-quality risk+2.6
- Approaching close+1.9
- Spread instability+1.6
- spread
- 1
- realized_vol
- 0.05
- hours_to_close
- 30889.80
- suggested_action
- Slightly widen
- Volatility risk+7.6
- Liquidity risk+6
- Data coverage risk+2.8
- Staleness / coverage+1.5
- Resolution risk+1.5
- liquidity_score
- 76
- resolution_score
- 90
- candle_history_points
- 324
- has_orderbook_snapshot
- No
Liquidity and Quote Risk reflect an order-book snapshot taken at report time and may have changed since.
trust_dashboard_v1.0 · computed Jun 24, 2026
6. How does the rumored development budget for Grand Theft Auto VI compare to the inflation-adjusted budgets of other major AAA releases like Red Dead Redemption 2 and Cyberpunk 2077?
| Grand Theft Auto VI Development Cost | $1 billion to $1.5 billion (as of May 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Red Dead Redemption 2 Development Budget | $170 million to $240 million [^][^][^] |
| Cyberpunk 2077 Total Development & Marketing Costs | Exceeding $300 million [^][^] |
7. What pricing precedent has been set by other major AAA games released on the PlayStation 5 between 2024 and its Fall 2026 launch?
| Astro Bot Standard Price | $59.99 (PlayStation Store, Sep 6 2024) [^] |
|---|---|
| GTA VI Standard Price | $79.99 [^] |
| GTA VI Premium Edition Price | $99.99 [^] |
8. How might public statements from Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick on monetization or production costs leading up to Fall 2026 signal a departure from the standard $70 price point?
| CEO's Pricing Strategy | Deliver value significantly higher than consumer price (Strauss Zelnick [^][^][^][^]) |
|---|---|
| Potential Price Point | Above standard $70, possibly $70–$80 (Market observers [^][^][^][^]) |
| Official Price Status | No official departure from $70 announced (Take-Two Interactive [^][^][^]) |
9. What was the launch pricing structure for previous Rockstar Games titles, specifically Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2, across their various editions?
| Grand Theft Auto V Standard Edition Launch Price | $59.99 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Red Dead Redemption 2 Standard Edition Launch Price | $59.99 [^][^][^][^] |
| Grand Theft Auto V Collector's Edition Launch Price | $149.99 [^][^] |
10. What announcements from Take-Two Interactive regarding special editions or pre-order bonuses could influence the base price of GTA VI ahead of the June 25, 2026 pre-order date?
| Pre-order start date | June 25, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Game release date | November 19, 2026 [^][^][^] |
| Base price status | Not officially announced (speculated to be $69.99 or $79.99) [^][^] |
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2030
- Closes: January 01, 2030
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Rockstar set Grand Theft Auto VI's release for PlayStation 5 on November 19, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Preorders for the game are announced to begin on June 25, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets treat November 19, 2026, as the most likely release window [^] , and this date appears as the dominant GTA VI-related date in other market statistics [^] .
- Trigger: Regarding pricing, prediction market coverage reports greater than 98% probability for Grand Theft Auto VI's PlayStation 5 price to exceed $60, with approximately 52% expecting it above $70, and around 25% expecting it above $80 [^] .
14. Related News
Rockstar Confirms $80 GTA VI Price, Forcing Prediction Market Realignment
Rockstar Games has officially confirmed a $79.99 price for its highly anticipated title Grand Theft Auto VI, ending months of industry speculation and triggering a dramatic repricing in prediction mar...
European Retailer Leak Pushes GTA VI Price Bets Toward $70-$80 Range
A new pricing leak from a major European retailer, arriving just days before pre-orders are set to begin, has triggered a significant repricing in markets for the launch price of Grand Theft Auto VI. ...
GTA VI Price Market Shifts Lower, Bets Consolidate Around $70 Cap
The prediction market for the launch price of Grand Theft Auto VI on PlayStation 5 saw a significant downward repricing on Tuesday, June 02, 2026. Probabilities for the game costing more than $70, $80...
15. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.