Fed Decision in September? Polymarket
25 bps decrease
Market Model 1.6% 0.9%
No change
Market Model 48.0% 46.4%
Others Markets
Active Markets (15)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.2% 4.2%
Yes
Market Model 6.0% 3.8%
NBA: 2027 Champion Polymarket
Philadelphia 76ers
Market Model 13.6% 16.4%
Golden State Warriors
Market Model 1.1% 1.2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.5% 1.5%
MLS Cup Winner 2026 Polymarket
Columbus Crew
Market Model 1.3% 1.4%
Real Salt Lake
Market Model 1.6% 1.4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 6.0% 4.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 5.6%
F1 Constructors' Champion Polymarket
Williams
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Cadillac
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.7% 3.7%
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei
Market Model 84.8% 82.9%
Mohammad Khatami
Market Model 0.1% 0.5%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket
0 (0 bps)
Market Model 88.6% 81.6%
11 (275 bps)
Market Model 0.1% 0.8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 12.0%
September 30
Market Model 3.9% 2.2%
December 31
Market Model 9.0% 5.2%
Venezuela leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Richard Grenell
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Frank Donovan
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in September? Top outcome: 25 bps decrease | 1.6% | 0.9% | Med | $13,869,810.64 | Refresh |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 4.2% | 4.2% | Med | $11,690,014.7 | Refresh |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 6.0% | 3.8% | Med | $10,540,473.38 | Refresh |
| NBA: 2027 Champion Top outcome: Philadelphia 76ers | 13.6% | 16.4% | High | $15,280,230.79 | Refresh |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.5% | 1.5% | Med | $17,565,210.95 | Refresh |
| MLS Cup Winner 2026 Top outcome: Columbus Crew | 1.3% | 1.4% | High | $19,599,933.69 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 6.0% | 4.0% | High | $21,710,920.25 | Refresh |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 5.6% | Med | $23,928,465.12 | Refresh |
| F1 Constructors' Champion Top outcome: Williams | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | $28,248,254.12 | Refresh |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.7% | 3.7% | Med | $35,227,250.4 | Refresh |
| Iran leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Mojtaba Khamenei | 84.8% | 82.9% | High | $37,693,534.33 | Refresh |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 (0 bps) | 88.6% | 81.6% | High | $46,587,328.08 | Refresh |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 18.0% | 12.0% | Med | $56,409,640.72 | Refresh |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Top outcome: September 30 | 3.9% | 2.2% | High | $69,657,941.78 | Refresh |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Richard Grenell | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | $95,108,007.51 | Refresh |
