Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Chipotle's total restaurant count in Q2 2026 to be above 4100, seeing no actionable edge.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price has been static since inception, holding at a 98.0% YES probability across all recorded data points. There have been no significant price movements, spikes, or drops to analyze. The chart indicates a flat trend, with 98.0% acting as the single price level where activity has occurred. This suggests an immediate and durable consensus was formed when the market opened.
Volume is minimal, with a total of 23 contracts traded. All trading volume occurred at the market's opening. The subsequent lack of volume indicates negligible participation and an absence of opposing views strong enough to generate new trades. This low liquidity and static price point to high market conviction. The sentiment is decisively positive, reflecting the near-certainty of the outcome based on publicly available data. The last reported restaurant count at the end of Q1 2026 was 4,104, which is already above the 4100 threshold implied by the contract. The market has simply priced in this information.
  • Since last update (~24h): Model for Above 4150 rose +27.6pp, flipping the edge as market increased +15.0pp.
  • Model for Above 4140 surged +20.9pp, compressing the edge while market rose +5.0pp.
  • Model for Above 4160 increased +14.8pp, flipping the edge despite market dropping -2.0pp.
  • Overall headline model probability rose +0.8pp; confidence score also increased by +1.0pp.
  • Total restaurant count is expected above 4,140, building on 4,104 from Q1.
  • The count likely exceeds 4,150, driven by typical Q2 opening acceleration.

Current Context

Chipotle's total restaurant count for Q2 2026 is not yet disclosed. As of March 31, 2026, the end of Q1 2026, Chipotle reported a total restaurant count of 4,104 locations [1][2]. This figure included 4,090 company-owned restaurants and 14 partner-operated units [1][2]. The confirmed Q2 2026 total restaurant count will be released with the company's second quarter financial results on July 29, 2026, at 4:30 p.m. ET [3][4][1].
The company targets 350 to 370 new restaurant openings for the full year 2026 [5][6]. This guidance includes 10 to 15 international partner-operated locations [5][6]. This expansion aligns with Chipotle's 'Recipe for Growth' strategy, which prioritizes operational excellence, menu innovation, digital modernization, global expansion, and talent cultivation [7][6][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - Apr 29, 2026newsroomeu.chipotle.com
  2. 2CMG-2026.04.29-EX99.1 v FINALfilecache.investorroom.com
  3. 3CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL TO ANNOUNCE SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ON JULY 29, 2026 - Jun 2, 2026newsroom.chipotle.com
  4. 4Chipotle sets Q2 2026 results call for July 29stocktitan.net
  5. 5CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - Apr 29, 2026newsroom.chipotle.com
  6. 6The Story of Where Chipotle Got Off Track, and How it Found its Way Back - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
  7. 7Chipotle unveils growth plan after another negative quarternrn.com
  8. 8Chipotle adopts new growth plan as sales slide | Restaurant Diverestaurantdive.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 July 13, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 60.0% to 75.0%

Outcome: Above 4150

What happened: The primary driver of the 15 percentage point spike in the "Chipotle total restaurant count in Q2" prediction market on July 13, 2026, was Chipotle's official announcement that day of its first entry into the Mexican market with a restaurant opening on July 16, 2026 [1][2]. This news likely signaled aggressive ongoing expansion, leading prediction market traders to increase their expectations for Chipotle's Q2 restaurant count to exceed the "Above 4150" threshold [1][2][3]. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant as a driver for this specific price movement.

📉 July 10, 2026: 57.0pp drop

Price decreased from 71.0% to 14.0%

Outcome: Above 4150

What happened: The provided web research indicates there is no verifiable public information regarding a 57.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for "Chipotle total restaurant count in Q2" on July 10, 2026, nor a social media catalyst for such a move [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][3][11]. Chipotle's Q2 2026 results, which would contain the official restaurant count, are not scheduled for release until July 29, 2026 [4]. Therefore, based on the available information, the described price movement and any associated social media driver cannot be confirmed. Social media was irrelevant as the event itself lacks verifiable evidence.

📉 July 06, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 71.0% to 62.0%

Outcome: Above 4150

What happened: The 9.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for "Chipotle total restaurant count in Q2" on July 6, 2026, as described, appears to correlate with a historical 9% drop in Chipotle's share price from July 2025, which was driven by the company cutting its same-store sales forecast [12]. On the specified date of July 6, 2026, Chipotle's stock experienced a more moderate decline, approximately 4.2%, primarily due to broader analyst downgrades and investor caution ahead of the Q2 2026 earnings release scheduled for July 29, 2026 [13]. The provided sources do not indicate any specific social media activity or a 9.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price for restaurant count on July 6, 2026. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement as described, which is not clearly evidenced as occurring on the stated date with that magnitude in the prediction market.
Sources (13)
  1. 1CHIPOTLE ENTERS MEXICO WITH FIRST RESTAURANT IN NUEVO LEÓN - Jul 13, 2026newsroom.chipotle.com
  2. 2Chipotle: US-based Mexican food chain opening first outlet in Mexico - BBC Newsbbc.co.uk
  3. 3Chipotle total restaurant count in Q2 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL TO ANNOUNCE SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ON JULY 29, 2026 - Jun 2, 2026newsroom.chipotle.com
  5. 5CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - Apr 29, 2026newsroomeu.chipotle.com
  6. 6cmg-20260331sec.gov
  7. 7CMG-2026.04.29-EX99.1 v FINALfilecache.investorroom.com
  8. 8Q1 2026 EARNINGSfortune.com
  9. 9News Releasesir.chipotle.com
  10. 10Chipotle InvestorRoom - Homeir.chipotle.com
  11. 11Chipotle total restaurant count in Q2 | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
  12. 12Chipotle stock tumbles 9% after chain cuts same-store sales forecast – NBC New Yorknbcnewyork.com
  13. 13Chipotle Falls as Investors Weigh Recent Downgrade, Margin Pressure, and a Cautious Setup Into Earningsmoomoo.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports above 4160 total company-owned restaurants for Q2 2026, and NO if they report 4160 or fewer. The market closes by August 21, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT, or earlier if the event occurs, with outcomes verified by Fiscal.ai based on reported total company-owned restaurants. Insider trading is prohibited.

Market Discussion

As of March 31, 2026, Chipotle reported a total of 4,104 restaurants, comprising 4,090 company-owned and 14 international partner-operated locations [1][2][3]. The company has stated an expectation to open approximately 350 to 370 new restaurants in total for the full year 2026 [2]. Chipotle is scheduled to announce its second quarter 2026 financial results on July 29, 2026 [4][5][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - Apr 29, 2026newsroomeu.chipotle.com
  2. 2cmg-20260331sec.gov
  3. 3CMG-2026.04.29-EX99.1 v FINALfilecache.investorroom.com
  4. 4CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL TO ANNOUNCE SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ON JULY 29, 2026 - Jun 2, 2026newsroom.chipotle.com
  5. 5News Releasesir.chipotle.com
  6. 6CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL TO ANNOUNCE SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ON JULY 29, 2026 - Jun 2, 2026ir.chipotle.com

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Jul 14, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality2
Poor
Liquidity
2

9 contracts · worst first

Above 41401
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 41501
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 41002
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 41603
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 4120—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 4130—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 4170—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 4180—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 4200—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

9 contracts · worst first

Above 4100—
Only 3 candle closes

Only 3 candle closes

Above 4140—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.86 log-odds, 5.0c, vol 2

Above 4120—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 4130—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 4150—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 4160—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 4170—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 4180—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Above 4200—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

9 contracts · worst first

Above 4100100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4140100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4120100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4130100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4150100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4160100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4170100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4180100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 4200100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 14, 2026

6. How will Chipotle's 'Recipe for Growth' strategy, particularly its international expansion efforts, affect the total restaurant count in Q2 2026?

Total Restaurants as of March 31, 20264,090 [1]
Expected Q2 2026 Restaurant CountHigher than 4,090 [2][3][4][5][6][7]
Targeted New Restaurant Openings for 2026350 to 370 [8][9][10][11][1]
Chipotle’s strategy anticipates a higher restaurant count in Q2 2026. The company’s "Recipe for Growth" strategy, with a particular focus on international expansion efforts, is expected to increase the total restaurant count by the second quarter of 2026 [2][3][4][5][6][7]. While an exact figure for Q2 2026 has not yet been publicly disclosed, the restaurant count is projected to be greater than 4,090 [2][3][4][5][6][7]. Chipotle is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 earnings, which will include the official restaurant count, on July 29, 2026 [9][2][3][4][5][6][7].
Chipotle’s expansion targets substantial new restaurant openings in 2026. As of March 31, 2026, Chipotle operated a global total of 4,090 restaurants, which included 3,983 in the U.S., 107 international locations, and 14 international partner-operated establishments [1]. For the full year 2026, the company aims to open between 350 and 370 new restaurants, with 10 to 15 of these specifically being international partner-operated establishments [8][9][10][11][1]. These extensive expansion efforts are a crucial element of the strategy to accelerate innovation and broaden Chipotle’s global presence [12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1cmg-20260331sec.gov
  2. 2www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  3. 3www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  4. 4www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  5. 5www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  6. 6www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  7. 7www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  8. 8CHIPOTLE ENTERS MEXICO WITH FIRST RESTAURANT IN NUEVO LEÓN - Jul 13, 2026newsroom.chipotle.com
  9. 9CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - Apr 29, 2026newsroomeu.chipotle.com
  10. 10Chipotle CFO zeroes in on international growth | CFO Divecfodive.com
  11. 11Chipotle to Open First Mexico-Based Restaurant - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
  12. 12Two Cents 7/11 - Is The Stock Market Justified?; World Cup Final Prices; Are You Saving Enough?youtube.com

7. How does Chipotle's projected new restaurant opening pace for 2026 compare to that of key competitors like CAVA and Sweetgreen?

Chipotle 2026 Projected Openings350 to 370 new restaurants (full year 2026) [1][2][3]
CAVA 2026 Projected Openings75 to 77 net new restaurants (full year 2026) [4][5]
Sweetgreen 2026 Projected Openings13 to 15 net new restaurants (full year 2026) [6]
Chipotle anticipates significant restaurant expansion in 2026. The company projects opening a robust number of new restaurants, with estimates ranging from 350 to 370 new locations for the full year [1][2][3]. This growth trajectory underscores an aggressive expansion strategy for Chipotle.
In contrast, key competitors CAVA and Sweetgreen project slower growth. CAVA expects to open 75 to 77 net new restaurants during the full year 2026 [4][5]. Sweetgreen's anticipated expansion is even more modest, with approximately 13 to 15 net new restaurant openings projected for the same period [6]. Chipotle's planned new restaurant opening pace significantly exceeds that of both CAVA and Sweetgreen for 2026.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Anticipates New Restaurant Openings in 2026 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  2. 2CMG-2026.04.29-EX99.1 v FINALfilecache.investorroom.com
  3. 3CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - Apr 29, 2026newsroomeu.chipotle.com
  4. 4CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  5. 5Cava will hire over 2K employees, open 75 units in 2026restaurantdive.com
  6. 6Fast-Casual Company-Owned Advantage: CAVA, Chipotle 2026 | QSR Proqsr.pro

8. Based on historical data from 2023-2025, does Chipotle typically see seasonal acceleration or deceleration in restaurant openings during Q2?

2025 Q1 Restaurant Openings57 [1][2][3]
2025 Q2 Restaurant Openings61 [1][2][3]
Total Restaurants (March 31, 2026)4,090 [4]
Chipotle restaurant openings typically accelerate in Q2 compared to Q1. Based on historical data from 2024 and 2025, Chipotle generally experiences an acceleration in restaurant openings during the second quarter (Q2) relative to the first quarter (Q1) [1][2][3]. Despite this Q2 acceleration, the number of openings in both Q1 and Q2 typically represents a deceleration when compared to the substantially higher opening figures observed in the fourth quarter (Q4) [1][2][3].
Historical data from 2024 and 2025 illustrates this acceleration. For instance, in 2025, Chipotle opened 57 restaurants in Q1, which increased to 61 in Q2. Similarly, in 2024, the company's restaurant openings accelerated from 47 in Q1 to 52 in Q2 [1][2]. These figures for Q1 and Q2 in both years remained lower than the Q4 openings, which were 132 in 2025 and 119 in 2024, respectively [1][2][3].
Chipotle's 2026 Q1 performance aligns with its development pace. As of March 31, 2026, Chipotle operated a total of 4,090 restaurants [4][3]. Following the opening of 49 restaurants in Q1 2026, the company's projected total restaurant count for Q2 2026 is consistent with its established development pace [4][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES SECOND QUARTER 2025 RESULTSprnewswire.com
  2. 2CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES SECOND QUARTER 2024 RESULTS - Jul 24, 2024ir.chipotle.com
  3. 3CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - Apr 29, 2026newsroomeu.chipotle.com
  4. 4CMG-2026.04.29-EX99.1 v FINALfilecache.investorroom.com

9. What publicly available data can be used to track individual Chipotle restaurant openings in Q2 2026 before the official July 29 earnings release?

Nashville Opening DateJune 30, 2026 [1]
Orlando Opening DateMay 11, 2026 [2]
2026 Full Year Guidance350-370 new restaurants [3][4]
Public data enables tracking of Chipotle's Q2 2026 restaurant openings. Publicly available sources, such as local news media outlets covering regional expansions, company press releases, and Chipotle's official 'locations' website, can be utilized to monitor individual restaurant openings before the official July 29 earnings release [1]. These sources offer insights as new stores become operational.
Several new Chipotle locations opened in Q2 2026. Specific openings identified include a restaurant in the Nashville area, reported on June 30, 2026 [1], and another in Orlando, which opened on May 11, 2026 [2]. Additionally, a company press release issued on July 13, 2026, confirmed Chipotle's expansion into Mexico with its first restaurant in Nuevo León [5].
Chipotle targets significant restaurant growth for the full year 2026. The company has provided guidance for a total of 350 to 370 new restaurant openings for the entire year. This annual target also includes an estimated 10 to 15 international partner-operated locations [3][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Chipotle opens new Nashville-area eateries, expands menu. What's newtennessean.com
  2. 2Chipotle opens in Orlando to continue aggressive Florida expansionnews-journalonline.com
  3. 3BIG MILESTONE IN THE "LITTLE APPLE:" CHIPOTLE OPENS ITS 4,000TH RESTAURANT, LOCATED IN MANHATTAN, KANSAS - Dec 12, 2025ir.chipotle.com
  4. 4Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Anticipates New Restaurant Openings in 2026 | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  5. 5CHIPOTLE ENTERS MEXICO WITH FIRST RESTAURANT IN NUEVO LEÓN - Jul 13, 2026newsroom.chipotle.com

10. What potential macroeconomic factors, such as commercial real estate trends or construction labor costs in Q1-Q2 2026, could influence Chipotle's expansion timeline?

Commercial Real EstateTight supply and near-historic low vacancy rates in 2026 [1][2]
Restaurant Construction Cost Growth3-4% annually in 2026 [3][4]
Construction Labor Shortage89% of firms reported unfilled positions in Q1 2026 [3]
Chipotle's expansion timeline in 2026 faces macroeconomic headwinds from commercial real estate and construction costs. Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by tight supply and near-historic low vacancy rates, leading to heightened competition for prime locations and keeping occupancy costs elevated [1][2]. Although restaurant construction costs are stabilizing, they are projected to grow by approximately 3-4% annually in 2026, following more significant increases in prior years [3][4].
Additional macroeconomic factors, including labor shortages and global events, further complicate expansion efforts. Significant skilled trade labor shortages persist, with 89% of construction firms reporting unfilled positions in Q1 2026 [3]. Rising costs for kitchen equipment and raw materials like copper also present challenges [3]. Moreover, geopolitical conditions, specifically conflict in the Middle East, have caused delays in international partner-operated restaurant openings, potentially leading to fewer openings than initially anticipated [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 12026 U.S. Retail & Restaurant Real Estate Outlook - Audiensebuxtonco.com
  2. 2U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2026 - Retailcbre.com
  3. 3Fast-Casual Restaurant Construction Cost (2026): $/SF, $/Seat, by Region | TCGterrapincg.com
  4. 4Cost to Open a Restaurant for Operators 2026: Buyer's Guiderestaurantvelocity.com
  5. 5Chipotle (CMG) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6[CMG Q1 2026 Earnings Call] Chipotle's 'Recipe for Growth' Delivers Revenue Beat, but Margins Squeeze and Cautious Outlook Temper Enthusiasm — BigGo Financefinance.biggo.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Chipotle Mexican Grill is scheduled to announce its second quarter 2026 results on July 29, 2026 [1][2][3]. Prediction markets are tracking Q2 2026 key performance indicators, including a total restaurant count threshold (e.g., above 4,160) and comparable restaurant sales growth (e.g., above 2%) [4][5]. These prediction markets have expiration dates around August 21, 2026 [4][5]. As of March 31, 2026, Chipotle operated 4,090 company-owned restaurants and 14 partner-operated restaurants, totaling 4,104 locations [6][7][8].
Key bullish catalysts for Chipotle in the second half of 2026 include successful menu innovation, citing Chipotle Honey Chicken as an example, alongside digital and marketing initiatives such as the Summer of Extras [9][10][11]. Operational improvements are also expected from high-efficiency equipment package (HEEP) rollouts, and the expansion of catering [9][10][11]. Conversely, macroeconomic headwinds affecting middle-to-lower income consumers represent a bearish risk [9][10][11]. The ability for fast-casual restaurants like Chipotle to provide convenience through simplified access could differentiate them from drive-thru focused competitors [12].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 21, 2026
  • Closes: August 21, 2026
Sources (12)
  1. 1CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL TO ANNOUNCE SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ON JULY 29, 2026 - Jun 2, 2026newsroom.chipotle.com
  2. 2News Releasesir.chipotle.com
  3. 3News Releasesir.chipotle.com
  4. 4Chipotle total restaurant count in Q2 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  5. 5Chipotle comparable restaurant sales increase in Q2 | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  6. 6CMG-2026.04.29-EX99.1 v FINALfilecache.investorroom.com
  7. 7CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - Apr 29, 2026newsroomeu.chipotle.com
  8. 8cmg-20260331sec.gov
  9. 9Chipotle set for stronger second half as sales trends improve, UBS says | NYSE:CMGproactiveinvestors.com
  10. 10Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Stock Research Report | Flashflash.stocksentinel.ai
  11. 11Chipotle Stock Has a $43 Analyst Target. The Bull Case Could Go Higher. | TIKR.comtikr.com
  12. 12The Consumer Stocks To Own & Avoid with Evercore's Top Analysts | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 65youtube.com