Short Answer

Cheesecake Factory already operates 383 company-owned restaurants as of October 28, 2026, making it highly probable the total will remain above 380 by the end of fiscal 2026, an outcome the market prices at 85.0% against the model's 98.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market repriced sharply on October 27 after The Cheesecake Factory's Q3 2026 earnings report. That release confirmed the company operated exactly 380 company-owned restaurants as of September 29, the end of the third quarter, matching the market's resolution number. Management further noted that nine of its planned 26 new locations for fiscal 2026 had already opened during or just after Q3. This new data pushed the probability of finishing the year with at least 380 restaurants toward certainty, causing an 84 percentage point spike in the contract price.
The company's full-year projection is for 393 total restaurants, suggesting the final count will be above 380. After the initial spike to 85.0%, the contract's price has fallen back to the single digits. This reversal suggests traders believe the final official count is unlikely to land precisely at 380, and will instead be a higher number. No specific news development coincides with this price decline from the peak.
  • Cheesecake Factory already operates 383 restaurants as of October 28, 2026, confirming above 380.
  • Even optimistic forecasts project around 393 total restaurants, making above 400 highly unlikely.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 400 7.0% 3.0% It is highly unlikely to exceed 400 without significantly surpassing stated guidance for openings.
Above 380 85.0% 98.0% The company already operates 383 restaurants as of October 28, 2026, confirming the condition.
Above 395 17.0% 10.0% Optimistic forecasts project the total restaurant count around 393, making exceeding 395 challenging.
Above 385 0.0% 33.1% Management reaffirmed plans for additional openings, with optimistic forecasts projecting around 393 restaurants.
Above 390 0.0% 33.1% Management reaffirmed plans for additional openings, with optimistic forecasts projecting around 393 restaurants.

Current Context

The Cheesecake Factory projects 393 company-owned restaurants by fiscal year-end 2026. As of September 29, 2026, the end of fiscal-2026's third quarter, the company operated 380 company-owned restaurants, comprising 218 The Cheesecake Factory, 52 North Italia, 59 other Fox Restaurant Concepts, and 51 other units. Including 35 internationally licensed Cheesecake Factory restaurants, the total unit count stood at 415 [1][2]. Management reaffirmed plans to open as many as 26 new restaurants for fiscal 2026, including up to 5 Cheesecake Factory, 8 North Italia, 7 Flower Child, and 6 other FRC locations. Six of these restaurants opened during Q3, with three more opening after quarter-end, bringing the company-owned total to 383 units as of October 28, 2026 [1][3]. Assuming the company meets its maximum target of 26 openings, with no closures, and accounting for the post-Q3 openings, the year-end company-owned restaurant count is estimated at approximately 393 (380 as of September 29 plus 13 additional implied by the plan). A conservative range for company-owned units is 389-393, depending on potential closures and the exact opening schedule [1][3][4]. While the company's projection targets 393 company-owned restaurants by fiscal year-end 2026, the official fiscal-2026 year-end restaurant count had not been publicly disclosed as of October 28, 2026 [1][3][4].
Cheesecake Factory reported strong Q3 2026 results and provided positive guidance. Third-quarter fiscal 2026 saw revenue reach $1,033.4 million, up from $907.2 million year-over-year, with net income at $61.3 million and diluted EPS at $1.19. Adjusted net income was $52.3 million, yielding an adjusted diluted EPS of $1.02. Comparable sales for The Cheesecake Factory brand surged by 15.2% in Q3, substantially exceeding pre-earnings prediction market expectations of roughly 9.5%-11.5% [1][4][5]. Nine-month comparable sales rose 7.5%. Operating metrics included a Cheesecake Factory annualized unit volume of approximately $13.9 million and a restaurant-level margin of 18.7%, up 240 basis points year over year [1][4]. Adjusted EBITDA increased 38% to $98.7 million, with total liquidity at $585.3 million [1][4]. For Q4 fiscal 2026, management guided revenue to $1.04-$1.05 billion and an adjusted net-income margin of approximately 5.8% at the midpoint. The outlook anticipates low-single-digit commodity inflation and low-to-mid-single-digit labor inflation [3][4][6]. Initial fiscal-2027 outlook projects as many as 27 openings, approximately $4.425 billion in revenue, and a 6.0%-6.1% net-income margin [4][6].
Investor debate centers on sales momentum durability and future valuation. The primary discussion among experts and investors concerns the sustainability of the recent acceleration in traffic and sales. Management acknowledged the trend as encouraging but cautioned it was early, maintaining 2027 assumptions near its historical algorithm [4][6]. UBS maintained a Sell rating on the stock, despite raising its price target to $80, citing valuation and sustainability risks [7]. Other analyst commentary attributed potential drivers to menu innovation, rewards program engagement, social-media virality, and enhanced relevance among younger consumers [4][6][7]. No reliable publicly documented prediction market for the fiscal-year-end restaurant count was identified in the available sources [5].
Sources (7)
  1. 1The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Third Quarter of Fiscal 2026, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  2. 2The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Third Quarter of Fiscal 2026businesswire.com
  3. 3The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Third Quarter of Fiscal 2026, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  4. 4Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5Cheesecake Factory earnings on deck as traffic momentum faces test By Investing.cominvesting.com
  6. 6Earnings call transcript: Cheesecake Factory beats Q3 2026 estimates, shares slip By Investing.cominvesting.com
  7. 7UBS raises Cheesecake Factory stock price target on sales momentum By Investing.cominvesting.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 October 27, 2026: 84.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 85.0%

Outcome: Above 380

What happened: The primary driver of the 84.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market was The Cheesecake Factory's official Q3 2026 earnings report released on October 27, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. This report confirmed the company had 380 restaurants as of September 29, 2026, and, crucially, stated that nine additional restaurant openings occurred after the Q3 quarter-end, directly indicating the "Above 380" outcome was highly likely for fiscal 2026 [1][2][5][6]. While management highlighted viral social media activity, such as a Cajun Salmon menu discussion, as contributing to strong Q3 earnings [3][4][5], and broader social media attention involving political figures amplified visibility [7][8], these narratives primarily focused on sales and brand engagement rather than providing direct information about the end-of-fiscal-year restaurant count. Social media activity was a contributing accelerant to overall positive sentiment, but the direct and specific details regarding restaurant count from the official earnings report were the primary driver.
Sources (8)
  1. 1The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Third Quarter of Fiscal 2026, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  2. 2The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Third Quarter of Fiscal 2026, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  3. 3Cheesecake Factory's (CAKE) Viral Cajun Salmon Was Already On The Menu, President Saysbullished.co
  4. 4Earnings call transcript: Cheesecake Factory beats Q3 2026 estimates, shares slip By Investing.cominvesting.com
  5. 5The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  6. 6Cheesecake Factory Q3 2026 slides: record volumes, $5B growth runway By Investing.cominvesting.com
  7. 7Cheesecake Factory, despite Obama’s gibe, is getting good reviews on Wall Street - The Washington Postwashingtonpost.com
  8. 8Cheesecake Factory serves up record earnings, holds the politicsusatoday.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "YES" if The Cheesecake Factory's total company-owned restaurants at the end of fiscal 2026 is above 380, and "NO" if it is 380 or less. Trading concludes on February 17, 2024, at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of May 18, 2027. Resolution will be based on The Cheesecake Factory's official reporting for "Total Company-Owned Restaurants" at the specified fiscal year end.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 380 $0.85 $0.16 85%
Above 395 $0.18 $0.83 17%
Above 400 $0.08 $0.93 7%
Above 385 $0.61 $0.40 0%
Above 390 $0.36 $0.65 0%

Market Discussion

As of October 28, 2026, prediction markets estimate Cheesecake Factory's total company-owned restaurants at fiscal-2026 year-end to be approximately 388, within a plausible range of 382–393 [1][2][3]. This market median is lower than the approximately 393 implied by adding management's Q4 opening guidance of 13 units to the 380 restaurants reported on September 29, 2026, suggesting traders are likely discounting potential closures, timing, or settlement methodology differences [1][3][4][5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Third Quarter of Fiscal 2026, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  2. 2Cheesecake Factory total restaurants at end of fiscal 2026 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  3. 3Cheesecake Factory total restaurants at end of fiscal 2026: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
  4. 4Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedroic.ai

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 61 Caution

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score60Caution
Trade quality20% of score62Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score61Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
59Caution

Outcome can be influenced

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Above 380” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
60Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 40047
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 38061
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

2 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 38070
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 12h

Above 40070
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 380100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 400100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
62Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 60 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 84.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 84.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 380Primary61Market scoreLiquidity61Move quality70Rule clarity100
Why 61
Liquidity
61 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 12h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 40047Market scoreLiquidity47Move quality70Rule clarity100
Why 47
Liquidity
47 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 28, 2026

6. How accurate has The Cheesecake Factory's annual new restaurant opening guidance been compared to its actual results over the past five fiscal years (2021-2025)?

FY2021 Total Openings14 actual openings (Guidance: 14) [1]
FY2024 Total Openings23 actual openings (Guidance: up to 22) [2][3]
FY2025 Cheesecake Factory Openings4 actual openings (Guidance: up to 4) [4][5]
Cheesecake Factory's guidance is a directional upper bound, sometimes met or exceeded. The company's annual guidance for new restaurant openings from fiscal years 2021-2025 typically served as a directional indicator, often presented as an upper bound and subject to in-year revisions [6]. The company successfully met its total-company development objective in fiscal 2021, opening 14 new restaurants as guided [1]. For fiscal 2024, total-company openings actually surpassed guidance by one, with 23 openings against a guidance of as many as 22 [2][3]. Furthermore, The Cheesecake Factory concept specifically achieved its fiscal 2025 guidance, opening exactly 4 restaurants [4][5].
Guidance often required adjustments due to various operational challenges. Despite instances of meeting or exceeding targets, guidance has frequently necessitated adjustments. In fiscal 2022, for example, total-company opening guidance was revised downward from an initial projection of up to 15-16 to up to 13 [7][8]. Similarly, initial guidance for both total-company and Cheesecake Factory openings in fiscal 2023 was reduced, primarily attributed to permitting delays [9][10]. The Cheesecake Factory concept also experienced a net decrease in company-owned restaurants in fiscal 2024, despite new openings, due to two relocations [2][11][3].
Fully assessing guidance accuracy is challenging due to data limitations. A complete five-year numerical error score for The Cheesecake Factory's new restaurant opening guidance is not fully determinable. This is because final full-year actuals for total-company openings are missing for both fiscal 2022 and 2025, and initial guidance snapshots are inconsistent [6][4][5].
Sources (11)
  1. 1The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 and Provides Business Update, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  2. 2The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for First Quarter of Fiscal 2024, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  3. 3The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2024, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  4. 4The Cheesecake Factory 2025 Annual Reports29.q4cdn.com
  5. 5The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Fourth...investors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  6. 60sec.gov
  7. 7The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 and Provides Business Update, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  8. 8The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Third Quarter of Fiscal 2022 and Provides Business Update, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  9. 9The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for First Quarter...investors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  10. 10The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Third Quarter of Fiscal 2023 and Provides Business Update, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  11. 11The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Second Quarter of Fiscal 2024, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com

7. What specific construction or permitting risks for the remaining planned Q4 2026 openings could delay them into fiscal 2027?

Primary Delay RiskPermitting/entitlement or final approval delay [1][2][3]
Company Identified RiskTiming of new-unit development and related permitting [3]
Precedent for DelaySubstantial permitting delays pressured opening timelines and caused some openings to shift into Q1 fiscal 2024 [2]
Permitting delays represent the most credible risk to Q4 2026 openings. A delay in permitting, entitlement, or final approval is the most likely cause for any Q4 2026 opening to be postponed into fiscal 2027 [1][2][3]. These delays can be exacerbated by issues such as construction completion, coordination with landlords or other third parties, supply-chain availability, adverse weather, or regulatory changes [1][2][3]. The company has specifically identified the timing of new-unit development and related permitting as a significant construction and permitting risk. Furthermore, its public filings detail the risks, associated costs, and uncertainties involved in opening new restaurants, noting that these factors are often influenced by government agencies, landlords, other third parties, and potential supply-chain disruptions [3][4].
The company has a history of permitting-driven delays impacting opening timelines. A precedent for such slippage was observed in Q3 fiscal 2023, when substantial permitting delays caused some planned openings to shift into Q1 fiscal 2024 [2]. Beyond permitting, other disclosed channels for delays include supply-chain disruptions; issues related to landlords or retail centers, including the economic health of landlords and other tenants; adverse weather conditions and natural disasters; and shifts in laws or governmental regulations [3][4]. However, the supplied sources do not identify any specific named 2026 project, jurisdiction, contractor, or permit that is currently blocked [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1[PDF] INVESTOR PRESENTATIONs29.q4cdn.com
  2. 2The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Third Quarter of Fiscal 2023 and Provides Business Update, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  3. 3The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Second Quarter of Fiscal 2026, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  4. 4The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for First Quarter of Fiscal 2026, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com

8. How does The Cheesecake Factory's projected unit growth rate for fiscal 2026 compare to that of key casual dining competitors like Darden Restaurants and Brinker International?

The Cheesecake Factory FY26 Projected Gross Unit Growth2.3% to 2.8% for flagship brand [1][2]
Darden Restaurants FY26 Net Unit Growth2.0% [3]
Brinker International FY26 Gross Unit Growth0.5% [4][5][6]
The Cheesecake Factory projects moderate flagship unit growth for fiscal 2026. The company anticipates approximately 2.3% to 2.8% gross unit growth for its flagship brand during this period, consistent with its long-term target of 2%-3% annual unit growth [1]. This projection encompasses plans for up to 26 new company-owned restaurants across its portfolio, including five new Cheesecake Factory units, eight North Italia locations, seven Flower Child restaurants, and six Fox Restaurant Concepts openings [1][2].
Darden Restaurants achieved 2.0% net unit growth, below its original forecast. In fiscal 2026, Darden added 43 net new restaurants, resulting in approximately 2.0% net unit growth across its 2,202 company-owned locations [3]. This outcome was lower than Darden's final fiscal 2026 outlook, which projected approximately 70 openings, as reported openings were partially offset by closures and other portfolio adjustments [3][7][8]. Darden’s stated long-term new-restaurant growth framework is 3%-4% [9].
Brinker International reported significantly slower unit growth in fiscal 2026. The company experienced minimal expansion, with only six company-owned openings, leading to approximately 0.5% gross unit growth and roughly 0.1% year-over-year ending-unit growth [4][5][6]. Management noted that Brinker's new-unit cycle is longer, typically 18-24 months, and consequently, no meaningful acceleration in unit growth was anticipated for fiscal 2026, with acceleration aimed for later years [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1INVESTOR PRESENTATIONinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  2. 2The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Fourth...investors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  3. 3Darden Restaurants Inc. - Darden Restaurants Reports Fiscal 2026 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results; Increases Quarterly Dividend; Authorizes New $1.5 Billion Share Repurchase Program; and Provides Fiscal 2027 Outlookinvestor.darden.com
  4. 4Brinker International, Inc. - BRINKER INTERNATIONAL REPORTS SECOND QUARTER OF FISCAL 2026 RESULTS AND UPDATES FISCAL 2026 GUIDANCEinvestors.brinker.com
  5. 5Brinker International, Inc. - BRINKER INTERNATIONAL REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR FISCAL 2026 RESULTS AND PROVIDES FISCAL 2027 GUIDANCEinvestors.brinker.com
  6. 6Brinker International, Inc. - BRINKER INTERNATIONAL REPORTS THIRD QUARTER OF FISCAL 2026 RESULTS AND UPDATES FISCAL 2026 GUIDANCEinvestors.brinker.com
  7. 7Darden Restaurants Reports Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter...investor.darden.com
  8. 8dri-20260531sec.gov
  9. 9Darden Restaurants (DRI) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfortune.com
  10. 10Brinker (EAT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com

9. Are there any public records, such as building permits or local news reports from Q3-Q4 2026, that confirm the status of planned new locations?

Green Acres OpeningDecember 15, 2026 [1][2]
West County Center OpeningEarly-November 2026 [1][2]
Expected New Company Restaurants Fiscal 2026Up to 26 [3][4]
Public reporting confirmed specific new Cheesecake Factory locations and timelines. Local reports and social media evidence from Q4 2026 indicated an announced opening at Green Acres in Valley Stream, New York, on December 15, 2026 [1]. Additionally, an advertised opening at West County Center was noted for approximately three weeks after October 21, consistent with an early-November debut [2].
Management reaffirmed plans for up to 26 new restaurants in fiscal 2026. Updates provided by management on October 27–28, 2026, reiterated the expectation of as many as 26 new company restaurants for the fiscal year [3]. By October 28, 2026, the company reported three post-quarter-end openings and projected an additional 13 openings in Q4. This projection suggested that the planned total of 26 openings remained active, although not explicitly guaranteed [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1The Cheesecake Factory sets Dec. 15 opening at Green...greaterlongisland.com
  2. 2The Cheesecake Factory opening at west county center 2026facebook.com
  3. 3The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Third Quarter of Fiscal 2026, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  4. 4Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q3 2026 Earnings Call...fool.com

10. What is the historical rate of restaurant closures for The Cheesecake Factory, and have analysts flagged any locations as potential closure risks in 2026?

Company-owned Restaurants Fiscal 2025371 (fiscal 2025 end) [1][2][3][4]
Cheesecake Factory Closures Post-Fiscal 20252 (representing 0.9% of 218-unit brand) [1][5]
Company-owned Restaurants Sept 2026380 (as of September 29, 2026) [6][7][8]
The Cheesecake Factory generally expands its company-owned restaurant footprint. The total number of company-owned restaurants increased from 218 in 2018 to 371 by the end of fiscal 2025 [1][2][3][4]. While some temporary closures were observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as three in February 2021 and two by April 2021, these instances did not establish a normal annual closure rate or indicate permanent status [9][10][11][5][1]. The most definitive recent permanent closures occurred after the fiscal 2025 quarter-end, when four restaurants closed, including two Cheesecake Factory locations. These two specific closures represented 0.9% of the 218-unit Cheesecake Factory brand [1][5].
Analysts have not identified specific Cheesecake Factory locations at risk in 2026. For 2026, analyst commentary indicates generic industry risks including labor inflation, capacity constraints, and broader macroeconomic conditions [12][13][14]. Some concept-level weakness was noted, with North Italia comparable sales reported down 3% [12][13][14]. However, analysts have not identified any particular Cheesecake Factory location as a potential closure risk [12][13][14]. As of September 29, 2026, The Cheesecake Factory reported 380 company-owned and operated restaurants, marking a 4% increase year-over-year [6][7][8]. Management is targeting up to 26 new openings in fiscal 2026, and its Q3 materials do not note any planned closures [6][7][8].
Sources (14)
  1. 1The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Fourth Quarter of...investors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  2. 2The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2023, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  3. 3The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2022 and Provides Business Update, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  4. 4the cheesecake factory incorporated - EDGAR Onlinecontent.edgar-online.com
  5. 5Tm266472d1 ex99 1.htmsec.gov
  6. 6The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Third Quarter of Fiscal...investors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  7. 7[PDF] INVESTOR PRESENTATIONinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  8. 8Cheesecake Factory Q3 2026 slides: record volumes, $5B...investing.com
  9. 9The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2020 and Provides Business Update, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  10. 10Tm2114340d1 ex99 1.htmsec.gov
  11. 11Tm216807d1 ex99 1.htmsec.gov
  12. 12Earnings call transcript: Cheesecake Factory beats Q3 2026...investing.com
  13. 13Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  14. 14The Cheesecake Factory at Barclays conference: growth, traffic and...investing.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Cheesecake Factory brand posted strong Q3 2026 results, with 15.2% comparable-sales growth, 9.5% traffic growth, and $13.9 million annualized unit volume, leading to an 18.7% restaurant-level margin. Consolidated revenue reached $1.033 billion, and adjusted EBITDA was $98.7 million [1][2][3]. Flower Child also contributed with 11% Q3 comparable-sales growth and a 20.2% restaurant-level margin [1][2][3]. Management projects Q4 revenue at $1.04-$1.05 billion, with approximately 5.8% adjusted net-income margin at the sales midpoint [2][4][3]. For FY2027, targets include approximately $4.425 billion revenue, 6.0%-6.1% net-income margin, and up to 27 openings [1][2][3].
Bearish risks include management's measured 2027 assumptions regarding the Cheesecake Factory sales inflection [2][4][3]. North Italia reported negative 3% Q3 comparable sales and a mature restaurant-level margin of 13.2%, down from 15.7% prior year [2][4][3]. Low-to-mid single-digit wage/minimum-wage inflation is anticipated [2][4][3]. Realizing up to 26 openings for fiscal 2026 requires approximately $210 million of cash CapEx [2][4][3]. As of Q3 fiscal 2026, the company operated 380 company-owned restaurants [1][2][4]. A base-case estimate for end-of-fiscal-2026 company-owned restaurants is approximately 390, while achieving 400+ requires unusually strong completion of the remaining development plan and no material closures [1][5][4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 18, 2027
  • Closes: May 18, 2027
Sources (5)
  1. 1The Cheesecake Factory Reports Results for Third Quarter of Fiscal 2026, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporatedinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  2. 2The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  3. 3Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4[PDF] INVESTOR PRESENTATIONinvestors.thecheesecakefactory.com
  5. 5THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED_June 30, 2026sec.gov