McDonald's total restaurants in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect McDonald's total restaurants in fiscal 2026 to be Above 46800, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- McDonald's guidance and Q1 2026 results support outcomes above 47,400 restaurants.
- The company is on pace for 2,100 net restaurant additions worldwide in 2026.
- Materially exceeding approximately 47,456 total restaurants appears tempered by current projections.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 47000 | 92.0% | 89.9% | Market higher by 2.1pp |
| Above 47200 | 86.0% | 89.9% | Model higher by 3.9pp |
| Above 46800 | 97.0% | 89.9% | Market higher by 7.1pp |
| Above 47400 | 64.0% | 88.4% | Model higher by 24.4pp |
| Above 47600 | 36.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 36.0pp |
Current Context
McDonald's reported 45,699 total systemwide restaurants worldwide as of March 31, 2026 [^] [^] [^] . For the first quarter of 2026, which concluded on the same date, the company reported consolidated revenues of $6.517 billion and a diluted EPS of $2.78. Global comparable sales increased by 3.8% during the period [^][^].
McDonald's projects 2,100 net restaurant additions for fiscal year 2026 [^] . The company aims to achieve 50,000 global restaurants by the end of 2027 [^]. Capital expenditures for 2026 are estimated to range between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion [^]. In June 2026, McDonald's introduced its McDonald's > NEXT global growth strategy. This strategy focuses on new restaurant design, improved food and drinks, consumer-led innovation, and enhanced customer service [^][^].
Fiscal year 2026 restaurant count data is unavailable from certain sports media sources [^] [^] . As of July 2026, no publicly available information regarding McDonald's total systemwide restaurant count for fiscal year 2026 was present in the provided ESPN or NFL sources [^][^]. These sources primarily cover sports business news, such as the Green Bay Packers' financial disclosures, rather than McDonald's corporate financial reports [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market saw its probability estimate jump from 1.0% to 83.0% on July 29, 2026, where it has since remained. The entire 82-percentage-point move occurred in a single day, establishing a new and stable price level. This price action, however, is not supported by significant market activity. Total volume traded is only 2 contracts, with the sample data points showing zero volume. This indicates an extremely illiquid market where the price was likely set by a very small number of participants. The lack of trading volume suggests the current 83.0% level does not reflect broad market conviction.
The current price implies high confidence that McDonald's will reach its target for total systemwide restaurants in fiscal 2026. The latest public filing shows the company had 45,699 restaurants as of March 31, 2026. The provided research does not contain a specific news event or data release on July 29 that would serve as a direct catalyst for the price spike. The Q1 2026 results, including the restaurant count, were reported in May. While the price stabilization at 83.0% could suggest a new consensus, the absence of trading volume makes it a weak signal. The market is effectively dormant at its current level.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 July 29, 2026: 85.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 86.0%
Outcome: Above 47200
What happened: The provided research does not evidence an 85.0 percentage point spike in a prediction market for "McDonald's total restaurants in fiscal 2026" above 47200 on July 29, 2026. The number "47200" appears to be a postal code for Marmande, France, not a financial key performance indicator or restaurant count; McDonald's reported 45,699 systemwide restaurants as of March 31, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. There is no record of an 85.0% market spike or any corresponding social media activity or traditional news release that would drive such a movement on that date [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, as no primary driver for the described, unsubstantiated market movement can be identified.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" contract resolves if McDonald's total number of restaurants in fiscal year 2026 is strictly above the threshold specified in the contract (e.g., above 47,400). Conversely, a "No" contract resolves if the total number of restaurants is at or below that specified threshold. The market ends trading on January 27 at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of April 27, 2027. No special settlement conditions are explicitly mentioned.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 46800 | $0.99 | $0.05 | 97% |
| Above 47000 | $0.92 | $0.15 | 92% |
| Above 47200 | $0.88 | $0.14 | 86% |
| Above 47400 | $0.64 | $0.43 | 64% |
| Above 47600 | $0.36 | $0.71 | 36% |
Market Discussion
As of March 31, 2026, McDonald's operated 45,699 systemwide restaurants worldwide [^][^]. For the full year 2026, the company targets approximately 2,600 gross restaurant openings, expecting a net increase of approximately 2,100 restaurants [^][^]. This growth aligns with McDonald's long-term strategy to reach 50,000 global restaurants by the end of 2027 [^][^][^].
5. How might the 'McDonald's > NEXT' global growth strategy affect the rate of net restaurant additions through fiscal year 2026?
| Projected Net Restaurant Additions FY2026 | Approximately 2,100 (McDonald's official projection) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Systemwide Restaurant Goal | 50,000 units by end of 2027 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Projected Systemwide Restaurants End FY2026 | About 47,456 (based on management guidance) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
McDonald's 'NEXT' strategy supports continued, measured global expansion through 2026. Unveiled in June 2026, this global growth strategy aims to maintain a consistent pace of net restaurant additions rather than initiating a significant acceleration [^][^][^][^][^][^]. It reinforces the existing ambitious goal of reaching 50,000 systemwide units by the end of 2027 [^][^][^][^][^]. The 'NEXT' strategy focuses on driving unit economics and customer traffic through key pillars such as productivity enhancements, menu innovation, restaurant redesigns, and improved hospitality [^][^][^][^][^].
McDonald's projects 2,100 net restaurant additions for fiscal year 2026. Based on this official guidance [^][^][^][^] and a count of 45,356 systemwide restaurants at December 31, 2025, the company is on track to conclude fiscal year 2026 with approximately 47,456 systemwide restaurants [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The 'NEXT' strategy is anticipated to sustain these net additions by strengthening franchise economics, boosting customer traffic, and fostering systemwide sales growth, indicating a steady rate of expansion throughout FY2026 rather than a sharp increase in new restaurant openings [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
6. Based on Q1 2026 results, is McDonald's on pace to achieve its full-year guidance of approximately 2,100 net restaurant additions?
| Full-year 2026 Net Restaurant Additions Guidance | Approximately 2,100 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Net Systemwide Restaurant Increase | 1,943 [^] |
| Total Systemwide Restaurants (End of Q1 2026) | 45,699 [^] |
McDonald's is on track for 2,100 net restaurant additions. The company is on pace to achieve its full-year guidance of approximately 2,100 net restaurant additions in fiscal 2026, consistently maintaining this target [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. The expansion of net restaurant units is a critical driver for systemwide sales, underscoring its role as a core operating lever for the company [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Q1 2026 results show strong systemwide expansion. For the first quarter of 2026, McDonald's reported a net increase of 1,943 systemwide restaurants [^]. This brought the total number of restaurants to 45,699, compared to 43,756 at the end of Q1 2025 [^]. This first-quarter performance indicates a continued systemwide expansion consistent with the planned approximately 2,100 net restaurant additions for the full year 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
7. How do McDonald's 2026 restaurant expansion plans and capital expenditures compare to those of its primary competitors, Yum! Brands and Starbucks?
| McDonald's 2026 Capital Expenditures | $3.7–$3.9 billion [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| McDonald's 2026 Net New Units | approximately 2,100 units [^][^][^] |
| Yum! Brands 2026 Capital Expenditures | approximately $400 million [^] |
McDonald's plans extensive global expansion and capital investment for 2026. The company anticipates a significant capital expenditure ranging from $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion in 2026 [^][^][^]. This investment is primarily allocated towards expanding its global restaurant footprint by approximately 2,100 net new units [^][^][^]. This aggressive expansion initiative is a key component of McDonald's broader strategy to achieve a total of 50,000 global restaurants by the end of 2027 [^][^].
Competitors like Yum. Brands and Starbucks show different expansion strategies. Yum! Brands, which operates with an asset-light business model, projects its 2026 capital expenditures to be around $400 million [^]. Its focus is on strategic growth and digital investments rather than extensive unit ownership [^]. Starbucks also aims for global expansion in fiscal 2026, with plans to add approximately 600 to 650 net new coffeehouses as part of its ongoing restructuring [^][^]. However, Starbucks' capital expenditures in Q1 2026 demonstrated a notable decline compared to the previous year [^][^].
8. Which SEC filings will provide the official total systemwide restaurant counts for McDonald's in 2026, and what is their anticipated release schedule?
| Reporting Document | Annual Report on Form 10-K (filed with SEC) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Fiscal Year for Count | 2026 [^] |
| Anticipated Release Date | late February 2027 [^][^][^] |
McDonald's reports official systemwide restaurant counts in SEC filings. McDonald's Corporation officially details its total systemwide restaurant counts, categorized by ownership type, within its Annual Report on Form 10-K, which is submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) [^][^][^].
The 2026 restaurant count is expected in early 2027. The official total systemwide restaurant count for McDonald's fiscal year 2026 is projected for release in the 10-K filing anticipated in late February 2027 [^][^][^]. This expectation is based on historical precedent, as the 10-K report for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was filed on February 24, 2026 [^][^][^].
9. What is the expected breakdown of McDonald's 2026 net restaurant growth between its U.S. segment and its International Operated/Developmental Licensed Markets?
| Global Net Restaurant Additions 2026 | 2,100 (expected) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Global Gross Restaurant Openings 2026 | 2,600 (planned) [^][^][^] |
| Systemwide Restaurants (March 31, 2026) | 45,699 [^][^][^] |
Gross openings show a clear segment distribution, but net details are absent. For the 2026 gross opening plans, approximately 750 new restaurants are projected for the U.S. and International Operated Markets (IOM) combined. Additionally, more than 1,800 openings are anticipated in International Developmental Licensed Markets (IDL) [^][^][^]. However, the specific breakdown of net restaurant additions between these segments is not detailed in the available facts.
McDonald's systemwide restaurant count neared 46,000 by early 2026. As of March 31, 2026, McDonald's operated 45,699 systemwide restaurants [^][^][^]. Prediction markets for Q2 2026 total systemwide restaurants have considered whether the count would exceed various thresholds, including 45,800, 46,000, or 46,100 [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Q2 2026 earnings release on August 4, 2026, is a near-term catalyst [^] [^] [^] . Don't Buy the..." data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. Market sentiment entering this release is cautious, characterized by a bearish focus on declining U.S. customer traffic, down 3.9% in late June, and inflationary cost pressures [^][^][^]. This is countered by a bullish "defensive rotation" thesis, relying on McDonald's value strategy to capture trade-down consumers [^][^][^].
McDonald's targets 50,000 global units by the end of 2027 and expects approximately 2,100 net new restaurant additions in 2026 [^] [^] . Key 2026 financial outlook targets include a ~2.5% contribution from net restaurant unit expansion to systemwide sales growth and ~2.2% SG&A expenses as a percentage of systemwide sales [^][^]. The company also projects a mid-to-high 40% operating margin range, $3.7–$3.9 billion in capital expenditures, and a free cash flow conversion rate in the low-to-mid 80% range [^][^]. A potential investor event in September 2026 could also influence market probabilities [^].
As of March 31, 2026, McDonald’s operated 45,699 systemwide restaurants globally [^] . The company reported global systemwide sales up 11% in Q1 2026 and 7% for FY2025, indicating healthy demand and support for unit growth [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Recent brand and partnership announcements suggest continued investment in traffic drivers and long-term brand visibility [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 27, 2027
- Closes: April 27, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The Q2 2026 earnings release on August 4, 2026, is a near-term catalyst [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Market sentiment entering this release is cautious, characterized by a bearish focus on declining U.S.
- Trigger: Customer traffic, down 3.9% in late June, and inflationary cost pressures [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This is countered by a bullish "defensive rotation" thesis, relying on McDonald's value strategy to capture trade-down consumers [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
