McDonald's total restaurants in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- McDonald's guidance and Q1 2026 results support outcomes above 47,400 restaurants.
- The company is on pace for 2,100 net restaurant additions worldwide in 2026.
- Materially exceeding approximately 47,456 total restaurants appears tempered by current projections.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 47000 | 84.0% | 89.9% | Model higher by 5.9pp |
| Above 47600 | 37.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 37.0pp |
| Above 47400 | 62.0% | 88.4% | Model higher by 26.4pp |
| Above 47200 | 86.0% | 89.9% | Model higher by 3.9pp |
| Above 46800 | 95.0% | 89.9% | Market higher by 5.1pp |
Current Context
Sources (10)
- 1R24.htmsec.gov
- 2McDonald’s Q1 2026 revenue hits $6,517M | MCD 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 3McDONALD'S REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - May 7, 2026mcdonalds.mediaroom.com
- 4Mcdonalds Corp (MCD) 10-Q Quarterly Report May 2026last10k.com
- 5McDonald's (MCD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 6Documentcdn.yahoofinance.com
- 7McDonald's MCD unveils growth strategycnbc.com
- 8Our Next Era of Growth & Productivity: Introducing...corporate.mcdonalds.com
- 9Packers CEO says financial bump needed to stay competitive - ESPNespn.com
- 10CEO Ed Policy discusses long-term adjustments Packers could make to stay financially competitivenfl.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 July 29, 2026: 85.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 86.0%
Outcome: Above 47200
Sources (14)
- 1Documentcdn.yahoofinance.com
- 2McDonald - 10-Q quarterly report FYcompaniesmarketcap.com
- 3McDonald’s Q1 2026 revenue hits $6,517M | MCD 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 4McDonald's from Marmandemenuweb.menu
- 5McDonald's Marmande sur Commerces.com - Ouvert le 15 août 2026commerces.com
- 6MCDONALD'S, Marmande - Route De Bordeauxtripadvisor.com
- 7McDonald's Marmande à Route Nationale 113, 47200 Marmande, France - Restaurant: adresse, horaires, photos, les avislocalitybiz.fr
- 8McDonald's - Menu, avis & réservation en lignepagesjaunes.fr
- 9McDonald's Stock Rises 2% as Investors Position Ahead of August 4 Earnings Amid Broader Blue-Chip Rallyibtimes.com.au
- 10McDonald’s Stock Rises 2% as Investors Position Ahead of August 4 Earnings Amid Broader Blue-Chip Rally – WordUp Newswordupnews.com
- 11McDonald’s shares could move 3.2% ahead of earnings as options signal moderate volatility · Business Upturnbusinessupturn.com
- 12McDonald's stock consolidation risk rises as volatility climbs and upside momentum peaks: weekly analysistradersunion.com
- 13McDonald's Corp Stock (MCD) Closed Up by 3.18% on Jul 16: Key Drivers Unveiledtradingkey.com
- 14MCD_Q12026, Page: 5Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" contract resolves if McDonald's total number of restaurants in fiscal year 2026 is strictly above the threshold specified in the contract (e.g., above 47,400). Conversely, a "No" contract resolves if the total number of restaurants is at or below that specified threshold. The market ends trading on January 27 at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of April 27, 2027. No special settlement conditions are explicitly mentioned.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 46800 | $0.99 | $0.05 | 95% |
| Above 47200 | $0.89 | $0.14 | 86% |
| Above 47000 | $0.92 | $0.10 | 84% |
| Above 47400 | $0.66 | $0.38 | 62% |
| Above 47600 | $0.37 | $0.71 | 37% |
Market Discussion
As of March 31, 2026, McDonald's operated 45,699 systemwide restaurants worldwide [1][2]. For the full year 2026, the company targets approximately 2,600 gross restaurant openings, expecting a net increase of approximately 2,100 restaurants [3][4]. This growth aligns with McDonald's long-term strategy to reach 50,000 global restaurants by the end of 2027 [3][5][4].
Sources (5)
- 1McDonald’s Q1 2026 revenue hits $6,517M | MCD 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 2McDONALD'S REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - May 7, 2026mcdonalds.mediaroom.com
- 3McDonald's Investor Overview Deckcorporate.mcdonalds.com
- 4McDonald's Corporation (MCD US) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript - February 11, 2026 | Roic AIroic.ai
- 5Our Next Era of Growth & Productivity: McDonald's > NEXTcorporate.mcdonalds.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. How might the 'McDonald's > NEXT' global growth strategy affect the rate of net restaurant additions through fiscal year 2026?
| Projected Net Restaurant Additions FY2026 | Approximately 2,100 (McDonald's official projection) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Systemwide Restaurant Goal | 50,000 units by end of 2027 [5][6][7][8][9] |
| Projected Systemwide Restaurants End FY2026 | About 47,456 (based on management guidance) [10][11][12][13][14][15] |
Sources (15)
- 1mcd-20251231sec.gov
- 2Documentcdn.yahoofinance.com
- 3McDonald's Investor Overview Deckcorporate.mcdonalds.com
- 4McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) grows Q1 2026 sales 9% and...stocktitan.net
- 5Our Next Era of Growth & Productivity: McDonald's > NEXTcorporate.mcdonalds.com
- 6McDonald’s bets chicken, restaurant improvements will grow sales | Restaurant Diverestaurantdive.com
- 7McDonald's MCD unveils growth strategycnbc.com
- 8McDonald’s unveils new 'McDonald’s > NEXT' growth strategyverdictfoodservice.com
- 9McDonald's unveils 'Next'-gen plans for growth, productivity as competition increases | QSR Webqsrweb.com
- 10www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 11www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 12www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 13www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 14www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 15www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
7. Based on Q1 2026 results, is McDonald's on pace to achieve its full-year guidance of approximately 2,100 net restaurant additions?
| Full-year 2026 Net Restaurant Additions Guidance | Approximately 2,100 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Net Systemwide Restaurant Increase | 1,943 [1] |
| Total Systemwide Restaurants (End of Q1 2026) | 45,699 [1] |
Sources (10)
- 1Documentcdn.yahoofinance.com
- 2McDonald’s Q1 2026 revenue hits $6,517M | MCD 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 3McDonald's Corporation Annual Report 2026 Form 10-K (...stocklight.com
- 4MCDONALDS CORP (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 8Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 5MCDONALDS CORP (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 27Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 6MCDONALDS CORP (10-Q) - 2026-Q1, Page: 19Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
- 7247wallst.comOctagon Agent
- 8www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 9247wallst.comOctagon Agent
- 10McDonald's Investor Overview Deckcorporate.mcdonalds.com
8. How do McDonald's 2026 restaurant expansion plans and capital expenditures compare to those of its primary competitors, Yum! Brands and Starbucks?
| McDonald's 2026 Capital Expenditures | $3.7–$3.9 billion [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| McDonald's 2026 Net New Units | approximately 2,100 units [1][2][3] |
| Yum! Brands 2026 Capital Expenditures | approximately $400 million [4] |
Sources (6)
- 1McDonald's Investor Overview Deckcorporate.mcdonalds.com
- 2Documentcdn.yahoofinance.com
- 3McDonald’s Q1 2026 revenue hits $6,517M | MCD 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 4YUM BRANDS INC SEC 10-K Reporttradingview.com
- 5Starbucks Coffee Company - Starbucks Reports Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Resultsinvestor.starbucks.com
- 6Starbucks Corp.s203.q4cdn.com
9. Which SEC filings will provide the official total systemwide restaurant counts for McDonald's in 2026, and what is their anticipated release schedule?
| Reporting Document | Annual Report on Form 10-K (filed with SEC) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Fiscal Year for Count | 2026 [1] |
| Anticipated Release Date | late February 2027 [4][5][6] |
10. What is the expected breakdown of McDonald's 2026 net restaurant growth between its U.S. segment and its International Operated/Developmental Licensed Markets?
| Global Net Restaurant Additions 2026 | 2,100 (expected) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Global Gross Restaurant Openings 2026 | 2,600 (planned) [1][2][3] |
| Systemwide Restaurants (March 31, 2026) | 45,699 [1][4][5] |
Sources (7)
- 1Documentcdn.yahoofinance.com
- 2McDonald's Investor Overview Deckcorporate.mcdonalds.com
- 3McDonald's (MCD) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4McDonald’s Q1 2026 revenue hits $6,517M | MCD 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 5McDonald's Q1 2026 Earnings Beat Estimates | InsiderFinanceinsiderfinance.io
- 6McDonald's Corporation total systemwide restaurants in Q2...kalshi.com
- 7McDonald's Corporation total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026coinbase.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 27, 2027
- Closes: April 27, 2027
Sources (13)
- 1"McDonald's: Too Soon to Buy Just Because It's Cheap...Confirm the Bottom First"[Click e-Stock] - The Asia Business Dailyasiae.co.kr
- 2McDonald's Stock Price Forecast — MCD ($264) Lags the Market Into August 4 Earnings — Analyst Target $327tradingnews.com
- 3McDonald's Just Hit a New 52-Week Low. Don't Buy the...barchart.com
- 4McDonald’s Stock at $264 Faces August 4 Earnings Test as Defensive Rotation Builds | XInvest Newsxinvestnews.com
- 5https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/sites/corp/nfl/pdf/McDonald%27s%20Investor%20Overview%20Deck.pdfcorporate.mcdonalds.com
- 6Documentcdn.yahoofinance.com
- 7McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) grows Q1 2026 sales 9% and...stocktitan.net
- 8www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 9www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 10www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
- 11www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 12www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 13www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com