CAVA total restaurants in Q3
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- CAVA's Q3 2026 restaurant count is projected 496-498 from Q1 openings and guidance.
- Thresholds "Above 490" and "Above 495" are strongly supported by current projections.
- An "Above 500" outcome appears highly unlikely given the 496-498 projection.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 494 | 86.0% | 47.6% | Market higher by 38.4pp |
| Above 492 | 90.0% | 82.0% | Market higher by 8.0pp |
| Above 490 | 95.0% | 83.5% | Market higher by 11.5pp |
| Above 488 | 98.0% | 85.0% | Market higher by 13.0pp |
| Above 484 | 90.0% | 90.0% | Model and market aligned |
Current Context
Sources (12)
- 1www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 2www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 3www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 4www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 5www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 6www.businesswire.comOctagon Agentbusinesswire.com
- 7CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 8CAVA to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 11, 2026marketscreener.com
- 9CAVA Group (CAVA) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
- 10CAVA to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial...businesswire.com
- 11CAVA: Expansion Remains On Track As Comps Improve (NYSE:CAVA) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 12CAVA Grew Revenue 32% and Opened 20 Restaurants Last Quarter. The Stock Is Down 30% From Its High | TIKR.comtikr.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 July 29, 2026: 88.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 89.0%
Outcome: Above 480
Sources (7)
- 1Why Is CAVA (CAVA) Stock Soaring Todayinvestor.wedbush.com
- 2CAVA is 'not a cheap stock.' Investors should buy it anyway, Morgan Stanley sayscnbc.com
- 3Morgan Stanley Upgrades CAVA Stock (CAVA): Should Investors Buy Now? - Blockonomiblockonomi.com
- 4How many Cava are there in the United States of America? | 2026 Updated & Comprehensive Data + Free Sample | Download Today!xmap.ai
- 5Cava Location Dataset — 463 Global locations | CREHQcrehq.com
- 6Inside CAVA's Growth Machine: What the | QSR Research Hubqsrresearchhub.com
- 7CAVA Group - 10-Q quarterly report FY2026 Q1companiesmarketcap.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if CAVA's total number of restaurants in Q3 is above the specific threshold stated in the individual contract (e.g., Above 494). Conversely, it resolves to NO if the total number of CAVA restaurants in Q3 is at or below that threshold. Trading for this market ends on November 3, 4:00 PM EST; no special settlement conditions or official data sources are specified in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 478 | $1.00 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above 480 | $1.00 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Above 486 | $0.99 | $0.05 | 98% |
| Above 488 | $0.99 | $0.05 | 98% |
| Above 490 | $0.99 | $0.07 | 95% |
| Above 484 | $0.99 | $0.04 | 90% |
| Above 492 | $0.96 | $0.09 | 90% |
| Above 482 | $0.99 | $0.04 | 88% |
| Above 494 | $0.97 | $0.21 | 86% |
| Above 496 | $0.98 | $0.47 | 61% |
| Above 498 | $0.73 | $0.79 | 0% |
| Above 500 | $1.00 | $0.88 | 0% |
Market Discussion
CAVA Group's Q3 2026 financial results, including total restaurant count, have not been released or discussed in official filings as of July 29, 2026, with the company scheduled to announce its Q2 2026 results on August 11, 2026 [1][2]. The most recent Q3 data available from CAVA's Q3 2025 financial report indicated a total of 415 restaurants as of October 5, 2025 [3][4][5]. Current social media and trader discussions reflect a divided sentiment regarding CAVA, with some sources indicating bearish sentiment and others tracking technical setups and historical earnings reactions [6][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1CAVA to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 11, 2026marketscreener.com
- 2CAVA Group (CAVA) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
- 3Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Group Reports Third Quarter 2025 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 4Documentsec.gov
- 5• CAVA Revenue grew 20.0% to $289.8 million as compared to $241.5 million in the prior year quarter and 66.8% as compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2023. • Net New CAVA Restaurant Openings of 17, bringing total CAVA Restaurants to 415, a 17.9% increase in total CAVA Restaurants year over year. • CAVA Same Restaurant Sales Growth of 1.9%. • CAVA AUV of $2.9 million as compared to $2.8 million in the prior year quarter excluding the 53rd week of fiscal 2023. • CAVA Restaurant-Level Profit of $71.2 million or growth of 15.1% over the prior year quarter, with CAVA Restaurant-Level Profit Margin of 24.6%. • CAVA Digital Revenue Mix was 37.6%. • CAVA Group Net Income of $14.7 million. • CAVA Group Adjusted EBITDA of $40.0 million compared to $33.5 million in the prior year quarter. • Year to date net cash provided by operating activities of $144.5 million with Free Cash Flow of $23.3 million.s202.q4cdn.com
- 6Cava Group (CAVA) Reddit Mentions & Stock Sentimentadanos.org
- 7Cava (CAVA.US) Stock Forum, Discussions & Community Posts | Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 8CAVA Group, Inc. Stock Forum (NYSE:CAVA) – TradingView Mindstradingview.com
5. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What forward-looking statements in CAVA's upcoming Q2 2026 earnings report could alter projections for its Q3 restaurant count?
| Q2 2026 Earnings Report Date | August 11, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Full-year 2026 Net New Restaurant Opening Guidance | 75 to 77 [3][4][5] |
| Total Restaurants at end of Q1 2026 | 459 [3][4] |
Sources (5)
- 1CAVA Group (CAVA) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
- 2CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Stock Price, News, Quote & Historyfinance.yahoo.com
- 3CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 4CAVA GROUP REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ___________________________________________ YEAR OVER YEAR CAVA REVENUE GROWTH OF 32.2% INCLUDING SAME RESTAURANT SALES OF 9.7% DRIVEN BY GUEST TRAFFIC GROWTH OF 6.8% ___________________________________________ 20 NET NEW CAVA RESTAURANT OPENINGS DURING QUARTER ___________________________________________ FIRST QUARTER 2026 CAVA RESTAURANT-LEVEL PROFIT MARGIN OF 25.1% ___________________________________________ WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 19, 2026) - CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA) (“CAVA Group” or the “Company”), the category-defining Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026. “Amid today's broader macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainty, our first quarter results reflect our position as a clear industry leader and our ability to meet the moment for the modern consumer," said Brett Schulman, Co-Founder and CEO. "First quarter same restaurant sales grew 9.7%, including traffic growth of 6.8%, and we opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, with recent new market entries across the Midwest in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus. These results, which include the lap of strong prior year comparisons, speak to the structural strength of our business, the resonance of our compelling value proposition, and our position as the dominant leader in Mediterranean – all of which fuel our confidence to sustain this momentum going forward." Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Highlights:s202.q4cdn.com
- 5Documentsec.gov
7. How do analyst projections for CAVA's year-end 2026 restaurant count translate to an expected Q3 figure?
| CAVA locations end of Q1 2026 | 459 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Projected net new openings FY 2026 | 75 to 77 [1][4][2][3] |
| Projected total locations end of FY 2026 | 514–516 [5][1][3][6] |
Sources (6)
- 1CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 2CAVA GROUP REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ___________________________________________ YEAR OVER YEAR CAVA REVENUE GROWTH OF 32.2% INCLUDING SAME RESTAURANT SALES OF 9.7% DRIVEN BY GUEST TRAFFIC GROWTH OF 6.8% ___________________________________________ 20 NET NEW CAVA RESTAURANT OPENINGS DURING QUARTER ___________________________________________ FIRST QUARTER 2026 CAVA RESTAURANT-LEVEL PROFIT MARGIN OF 25.1% ___________________________________________ WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 19, 2026) - CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA) (“CAVA Group” or the “Company”), the category-defining Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026. “Amid today's broader macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainty, our first quarter results reflect our position as a clear industry leader and our ability to meet the moment for the modern consumer," said Brett Schulman, Co-Founder and CEO. "First quarter same restaurant sales grew 9.7%, including traffic growth of 6.8%, and we opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, with recent new market entries across the Midwest in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus. These results, which include the lap of strong prior year comparisons, speak to the structural strength of our business, the resonance of our compelling value proposition, and our position as the dominant leader in Mediterranean – all of which fuel our confidence to sustain this momentum going forward." Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Highlights:s202.q4cdn.com
- 3Cava Group, Inc. (CAVA) 8-K Earnings Release - May 2026last10k.com
- 4CAVA Rose 5% This Week. Here’s Where the Stock Could Be Headed in 2026 | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 5Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2025 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 6Financial News | myMotherLode.com - CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsmoney.mymotherlode.com
8. How does CAVA's projected 2026 unit growth percentage compare to that of key competitors like Chipotle and Sweetgreen?
| CAVA 2026 Unit Growth | 17.1% to 17.5% [1] |
|---|---|
| CAVA 2026 New Restaurant Openings | 75 to 77 [2][3][4] |
| CAVA vs. Competitor Growth | CAVA's projected unit growth (17.1%-17.5%) is higher than Chipotle (8.6%-9.1%) and Sweetgreen (4.6%) [1][5][6][7][8][9][10] |
Sources (10)
- 1Earnings Release 2025 Q4s202.q4cdn.com
- 2CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusiness.times-online.com
- 3CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 4CAVA GROUP REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ___________________________________________ YEAR OVER YEAR CAVA REVENUE GROWTH OF 32.2% INCLUDING SAME RESTAURANT SALES OF 9.7% DRIVEN BY GUEST TRAFFIC GROWTH OF 6.8% ___________________________________________ 20 NET NEW CAVA RESTAURANT OPENINGS DURING QUARTER ___________________________________________ FIRST QUARTER 2026 CAVA RESTAURANT-LEVEL PROFIT MARGIN OF 25.1% ___________________________________________ WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 19, 2026) - CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA) (“CAVA Group” or the “Company”), the category-defining Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026. “Amid today's broader macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainty, our first quarter results reflect our position as a clear industry leader and our ability to meet the moment for the modern consumer," said Brett Schulman, Co-Founder and CEO. "First quarter same restaurant sales grew 9.7%, including traffic growth of 6.8%, and we opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, with recent new market entries across the Midwest in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus. These results, which include the lap of strong prior year comparisons, speak to the structural strength of our business, the resonance of our compelling value proposition, and our position as the dominant leader in Mediterranean – all of which fuel our confidence to sustain this momentum going forward." Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Highlights:s202.q4cdn.com
- 5CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTSir.chipotle.com
- 6Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) | Trefistrefis.com
- 7Why Is Chipotle Stock So High in 2026?ultimamarkets.com
- 8Sweetgreen (SG) | Trefistrefis.com
- 9Sweetgreen reiterates FY2026 same-store sales outlook ofseekingalpha.com
- 10Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG) Future Performance Analysis (2026)koalagains.com
9. What alternative data, such as location intelligence or permit filings, can provide leading indicators of CAVA's Q2 and Q3 2026 openings?
| FY26 Net New Restaurant Openings Target | 75–77 [1] |
|---|---|
| Q1 Fiscal Quarter Length | 16 weeks [1] |
| Q2, Q3, Q4 Fiscal Quarter Length | 12 weeks [1] |
10. Based on CAVA's quarterly results from 2025 to Q1 2026, what is the typical pace and seasonality of their new restaurant openings?
| FY2025 Net New Restaurant Openings | 72 (total) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Net New Restaurant Openings | 20 [1][5] |
| FY2026 Net New Restaurant Opening Guidance | 75 to 77 [1][6][7] |
Sources (7)
- 1Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 2Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2025 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 3CAVA Group Reports Third Quarter 2025 Resultsbusinesswire.com
- 4Earnings Release 2025 Q4s202.q4cdn.com
- 5CAVA GROUP REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ___________________________________________ YEAR OVER YEAR CAVA REVENUE GROWTH OF 32.2% INCLUDING SAME RESTAURANT SALES OF 9.7% DRIVEN BY GUEST TRAFFIC GROWTH OF 6.8% ___________________________________________ 20 NET NEW CAVA RESTAURANT OPENINGS DURING QUARTER ___________________________________________ FIRST QUARTER 2026 CAVA RESTAURANT-LEVEL PROFIT MARGIN OF 25.1% ___________________________________________ WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 19, 2026) - CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA) (“CAVA Group” or the “Company”), the category-defining Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026. “Amid today's broader macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainty, our first quarter results reflect our position as a clear industry leader and our ability to meet the moment for the modern consumer," said Brett Schulman, Co-Founder and CEO. "First quarter same restaurant sales grew 9.7%, including traffic growth of 6.8%, and we opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, with recent new market entries across the Midwest in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus. These results, which include the lap of strong prior year comparisons, speak to the structural strength of our business, the resonance of our compelling value proposition, and our position as the dominant leader in Mediterranean – all of which fuel our confidence to sustain this momentum going forward." Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Highlights:s202.q4cdn.com
- 6Q1 2024 Earnings Supplemental Materialss202.q4cdn.com
- 7CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 10, 2027
- Closes: March 10, 2027
Sources (6)
- 1CAVA to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 11, 2026marketscreener.com
- 2CAVA Group (CAVA) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
- 3CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 4Inside CAVA's Growth Machine: What the | QSR Research Hubqsrresearchhub.com
- 5CAVA Stock Is Down Nearly 30% From Its High. Here’s Why the Stock Has Pulled Back Since | TIKR.comtikr.com
- 6Cava Group (CAVA) Stock Slides -22.9% in 30 Days on Valuation and Sector Pressurestickeron.com