CAVA total restaurants in Q3
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect CAVA's total restaurant count in Q3 2026 to be above 478, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- CAVA's Q3 2026 restaurant count is projected 496-498 from Q1 openings and guidance.
- Thresholds "Above 490" and "Above 495" are strongly supported by current projections.
- An "Above 500" outcome appears highly unlikely given the 496-498 projection.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 494 | 18.0% | 47.6% | Model higher by 29.6pp |
| Above 492 | 47.0% | 82.0% | Model higher by 35.0pp |
| Above 490 | 66.0% | 83.5% | Model higher by 17.5pp |
| Above 484 | 87.0% | 90.0% | Model higher by 3.0pp |
| Above 488 | 76.0% | 85.0% | Model higher by 9.0pp |
Current Context
CAVA reported 479 total restaurants at the end of fiscal Q3 2026. CAVA Group reported 479 total restaurant locations for fiscal Q3 2026, representing 20.2% year-over-year growth [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The company opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter [^][^][^][^][^][^]. CAVA's Q3 2026 financial results were published May 19, 2026, for the quarter that reportedly ended April 19, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Management indicated new market entries during this period included the Midwest, specifically Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Conflicting reports exist regarding the Q3 2026 results release. While some reports indicated CAVA's Q3 2026 financial results had not been released as of July 29, 2026 [^][^][^], the aforementioned details specify a May 19, 2026, publication date for these Q3 results. In Q1 2026, which ended April 19, 2026, CAVA had 459 restaurant locations [^]. The company maintains an aggressive expansion strategy for 2026, targeting 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings for the full year [^][^]. Q1 2026 financial performance included revenue growth of 32.2% year-over-year and same-restaurant sales increasing 9.7% [^][^]. Following Q1 results, full-year 2026 same-restaurant sales guidance was raised to 4.5%–6.5% [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market saw an immediate and decisive price movement on July 29, 2026, jumping from a starting price of 1.0% to 97.0%. The trend is a vertical spike with no intermediate price discovery. This price action was a direct reaction to publicly available information. CAVA Group was reported to have 479 total restaurants at the end of fiscal Q3 2026. As this figure exceeds the market's resolution threshold of 478 restaurants, the contract priced in a near-certain "YES" outcome.
Market depth and conviction appear extremely low. Total volume traded is only three contracts, indicating that the price shift occurred in a highly illiquid environment. This suggests the price reflects an arbitrage of a known fact by a minimal number of participants rather than a broad consensus formed over time. The key price levels are the effective floor at 1.0% and the current ceiling at 97.0%. The chart suggests market sentiment is not speculative but rather a direct reflection of the reported Q3 restaurant count, with participants treating the outcome as a settled matter.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 July 29, 2026: 88.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 89.0%
Outcome: Above 480
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price spike for CAVA's Q3 restaurant count outcome "Above 480" was a significant traditional news event that bolstered confidence in the company's growth trajectory. On July 15, 2026, Morgan Stanley upgraded CAVA stock to Overweight, citing strong fundamentals and an aggressive growth strategy [^][^][^]. This upgrade, coupled with CAVA's existing 458-463 restaurant locations as of July 2026 and a consistent rate of approximately 20 net new openings per quarter, likely led market participants to price in a high probability of exceeding 480 restaurants by Q3 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no related posts or narratives were found coinciding with the price move.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if CAVA's total number of restaurants in Q3 is above the specific threshold stated in the individual contract (e.g., Above 494). Conversely, it resolves to NO if the total number of CAVA restaurants in Q3 is at or below that threshold. Trading for this market ends on November 3, 4:00 PM EST; no special settlement conditions or official data sources are specified in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 480 | $0.99 | $0.04 | 97% |
| Above 478 | $0.99 | $0.04 | 96% |
| Above 482 | $0.97 | $0.11 | 88% |
| Above 484 | $0.93 | $0.13 | 87% |
| Above 486 | $0.87 | $0.20 | 81% |
| Above 488 | $0.80 | $0.27 | 76% |
| Above 490 | $0.74 | $0.32 | 66% |
| Above 492 | $0.50 | $0.58 | 47% |
| Above 494 | $0.21 | $0.87 | 18% |
Market Discussion
CAVA Group's Q3 2026 financial results, including total restaurant count, have not been released or discussed in official filings as of July 29, 2026, with the company scheduled to announce its Q2 2026 results on August 11, 2026 [^][^]. The most recent Q3 data available from CAVA's Q3 2025 financial report indicated a total of 415 restaurants as of October 5, 2025 [^][^][^]. Current social media and trader discussions reflect a divided sentiment regarding CAVA, with some sources indicating bearish sentiment and others tracking technical setups and historical earnings reactions [^][^][^].
5. What forward-looking statements in CAVA's upcoming Q2 2026 earnings report could alter projections for its Q3 restaurant count?
| Q2 2026 Earnings Report Date | August 11, 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Full-year 2026 Net New Restaurant Opening Guidance | 75 to 77 [^][^][^] |
| Total Restaurants at end of Q1 2026 | 459 [^][^] |
CAVA Group’s Q2 earnings report will significantly influence Q3 restaurant count projections. CAVA Group is anticipated to release its Q2 2026 earnings report on August 11, 2026 [^][^]. This report will contain forward-looking statements crucial for accurately projecting the company's Q3 2026 restaurant count. The most critical information expected to alter these projections includes any updates to the fiscal full-year 2026 net new restaurant opening guidance. Additionally, commentary on development timelines and disclosures regarding potential supply chain, labor, or regulatory delays affecting construction or permitting will be closely monitored [^][^][^].
Revisions to full-year restaurant opening guidance are most impactful for Q3 projections. In its Q1 2026 earnings report, released on May 19, 2026, CAVA updated its full-year 2026 guidance for net new restaurant openings to a range of 75 to 77 [^][^][^]. The company opened 20 net new restaurants during the first quarter of 2026, concluding the period with a total of 459 restaurants [^][^]. Therefore, any revisions to the fiscal full-year 2026 net new restaurant opening guidance within the Q2 2026 earnings report would be the most impactful forward-looking statements for Q3 restaurant count projections [^][^][^].
6. How do analyst projections for CAVA's year-end 2026 restaurant count translate to an expected Q3 figure?
| CAVA locations end of Q1 2026 | 459 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Projected net new openings FY 2026 | 75 to 77 [^][^][^][^] |
| Projected total locations end of FY 2026 | 514–516 [^][^][^][^] |
CAVA projects substantial restaurant count growth for fiscal year 2026. As of April 19, 2026, the company operated a total of 459 restaurant locations [^][^][^]. The updated guidance issued in May 2026 indicates an expectation of 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings for the fiscal year [^][^][^][^]. Considering a starting count of 439 restaurants at the beginning of fiscal 2026 [^], CAVA anticipates ending the year with approximately 514–516 total locations [^][^][^][^].
Specific Q3 2026 restaurant count projections are not available. While CAVA reported 20 net new restaurant openings during the first quarter of 2026 [^], the provided information does not include a detailed breakdown or specific projection for net new restaurant openings during the third quarter of 2026. Therefore, a direct estimate for CAVA's restaurant count specifically for Q3 2026 cannot be derived from the available data.
7. How does CAVA's projected 2026 unit growth percentage compare to that of key competitors like Chipotle and Sweetgreen?
| CAVA 2026 Unit Growth | 17.1% to 17.5% [^] |
|---|---|
| CAVA 2026 New Restaurant Openings | 75 to 77 [^][^][^] |
| CAVA vs. Competitor Growth | CAVA's projected unit growth (17.1%-17.5%) is higher than Chipotle (8.6%-9.1%) and Sweetgreen (4.6%) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
CAVA anticipates substantial unit growth for fiscal year 2026. The company is projected to achieve a unit growth rate of approximately 17.1% to 17.5% in fiscal 2026 [^]. This translates to an estimated 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings for the fiscal year, building upon its existing 439 restaurants at the close of fiscal 2025 [^][^][^][^].
CAVA's projected growth significantly exceeds its key competitors. In comparison, Chipotle forecasts 350 to 370 new restaurant openings for fiscal 2026, representing an 8.6% to 9.1% unit growth rate, based on its larger existing base of approximately 4,060 restaurants by the end of 2025 [^][^][^]. Sweetgreen, which had 281 restaurants at the close of 2025, projects approximately 13 net new openings, resulting in a unit growth rate of about 4.6%; this figure was recently revised downward [^][^][^]. This demonstrates CAVA's significant relative expansion plans compared to its peers [^].
8. What alternative data, such as location intelligence or permit filings, can provide leading indicators of CAVA's Q2 and Q3 2026 openings?
| FY26 Net New Restaurant Openings Target | 75–77 [^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 Fiscal Quarter Length | 16 weeks [^] |
| Q2, Q3, Q4 Fiscal Quarter Length | 12 weeks [^] |
Alternative data sources provide several key leading indicators for CAVA's new restaurant openings. Local municipal permit filings, often accessible in county development databases, offer insight into crucial site development activities [^]. News reported in local publications concerning new leases or site development, particularly for spaces like former retail locations such as MOD Pizza, also serves as a strong indicator [^][^]. Furthermore, location intelligence data can reveal critical pre-opening signs, including active site construction or an increase in pre-opening site visits, both signaling potential new restaurant openings [^].
CAVA targets substantial expansion in 2026, structured by its unique fiscal calendar. The company aims for 75–77 net new restaurant openings for fiscal year 2026 [^]. CAVA's fiscal calendar is structured with 16-week quarters for Q1, while Q2, Q3, and Q4 each comprise 12 weeks [^]. This structural difference results in a front-loading of restaurant opening counts during the first quarter relative to the subsequent quarters [^].
9. Based on CAVA's quarterly results from 2025 to Q1 2026, what is the typical pace and seasonality of their new restaurant openings?
| FY2025 Net New Restaurant Openings | 72 (total) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Net New Restaurant Openings | 20 [^][^] |
| FY2026 Net New Restaurant Opening Guidance | 75 to 77 [^][^][^] |
CAVA typically increases net new restaurant openings throughout its fiscal year, with the highest volume consistently observed in the fourth quarter. For fiscal year 2025, CAVA opened a total of 72 net new restaurants. This expansion followed a quarterly pattern of 15 openings in Q1, 16 in Q2, 17 in Q3, and 24 in Q4 [^][^][^][^]. The company's fiscal calendar designates Q1 as 16 weeks, while Q2, Q3, and Q4 each span 12 weeks [^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Operational performance and expansion plans offer further market drivers. CAVA operated 459 restaurants as of Q1 2026 and maintains full-year 2026 guidance for 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings [^][^]. Bullish factors include 9.7% same-restaurant sales growth in Q1 2026, successful expansion into new Midwest markets, and operational efficiency improvements [^]. Bearish pressures stem from macroeconomic headwinds in the restaurant sector, an elevated stock valuation, and insider selling [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 10, 2027
- Closes: March 10, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Upcoming Q2 2026 financial results are a near-term catalyst.
- Trigger: CAVA is scheduled to announce its Q2 2026 financial results on August 11, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Consensus analyst estimates for CAVA's Q3 2026 EPS are approximately $0.21, with a range between $0.17 and $0.25 [^] .
- Trigger: Operational performance and expansion plans offer further market drivers.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
