Short Answer

CAVA's Q3 2026 same-restaurant sales growth is not expected to reach the higher thresholds of 6%, 7%, or 11%, with management guidance and analyst forecasts projecting a significant deceleration to mid-single digits. The market prices this outcome as unlikely (13.0%).

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

TO: Desk RE: Prediction Market Analysis - CAVA Q3 Same-Restaurant Sales (KXCAVA-26NOVCOMP-3)
This market's jump from 1.0% to 13.0% between October 12 and October 20 appears to be a direct reaction to CAVA's recently reported Q2 2026 performance. The company posted strong 9.0% same-restaurant sales growth for the second quarter, which concluded July 12. That figure was driven by a 5.3% increase in guest traffic and a 3.7% benefit from menu price and product mix.
With the Q3 2026 earnings release scheduled for November 4, the market seems to be pricing in a continuation of Q2's momentum. No specific news event coincides with the timing of the price move. The entire re-rating occurred on very light volume, with only 100 contracts traded in total, suggesting the current level may reflect initial positioning rather than broad conviction.
  • Since last update (~12h): The model's "Above 6%" probability plummeted -54.2pp, flipping the edge as market odds remained flat.
  • Our model decreased "Above 7%" by -6.0pp, widening the edge, with market probability unchanged.
  • Model consistently lowered higher outcome probabilities, compressing edges, and boosted confidence by +1.0pp.
  • CAVA's Q3 2026 sales growth is expected to decelerate to mid-single digits, driven by traffic.
  • Management's reaffirmed full-year guidance implies significant second-half growth deceleration.
  • UBS forecasts Q3 2026 same-restaurant sales growth at approximately 3%.

Current Context

CAVA's Q3 2026 results are pending, following strong Q2 growth. CAVA has not yet reported fiscal Q3 2026 results as of October 24, 2026. The company scheduled its Q3 earnings release for Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at approximately 4:10 p.m. ET, followed by a 5:00 p.m. ET conference call [1][2]. Fiscal Q2 2026, which concluded July 12, 2026, generated 9.0% same-restaurant sales growth. This figure consisted of 5.3% guest-traffic growth and 3.7% menu-price/product-mix growth [2]. Q2 2026 financial key performance indicators included $365.4 million in CAVA revenue, 17 net new restaurants, 476 total restaurants, $3.088 million average unit volume (AUV), and a 25.7% restaurant-level profit margin. Digital revenue mix stood at 39.0%, with net income of $23.0 million and adjusted EBITDA of $54.7 million [3][2]. Management reaffirmed fiscal-2026 guidance after Q2, projecting 75–77 net new openings, 4.5%–6.5% same-restaurant sales growth, 23.7%–24.3% restaurant-level profit margin, $181–$191 million adjusted EBITDA, and $22.0–$22.5 million in pre-opening costs [2].
Q3 estimates anticipate deceleration; market pricing favors low-to-mid single digits. Expert estimates point to deceleration in Q3, with UBS expecting approximately 3.0% same-store sales growth, compared to a 3.6% consensus on October 22. An earlier UBS snapshot cited 4.3%; UBS attributed the cautious view to food-safety headlines and macro pressure [4][5]. Third-party earnings aggregators cited Q3 revenue expectations around $358.4–$359.9 million and adjusted EPS around $0.12. These estimates should be treated cautiously, however, given conflicts in reporting-date metadata and their non-primary company guidance status [6][7]. Prediction-market pricing on October 24 implied approximately an 85% chance that Q3 same-restaurant sales growth would exceed 3%, a 58% chance for exceeding 4%, and a 29% chance for exceeding 5% [8][9]. UBS identified principal Q3 catalysts as sales trends through Q3 and into Q4, any continuing food-safety effects, and the performance of newly opened restaurants. UBS maintained expectations for 75–77 2026 openings and anticipated roughly 16% unit-growth guidance for 2027 [4]. The bullish case highlights Q2’s 9.0% comp and 5.3% traffic growth as indicative of strong underlying demand. The bearish case notes management’s full-year 4.5%–6.5% comp range implies a material second-half slowdown, with analyst expectations clustering near low-to-mid single digits [2]. Our analytical forecast projects Q3 same-restaurant sales growth is more likely to land in the low-to-mid single digits, roughly 3%–5%, rather than repeating Q2’s 9%; the market most strongly favors above 3% but assigns substantially lower odds above 5% [1][2][4][8].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 4th, 2026investor.cava.com
  2. 2Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Group Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  3. 3CAVA Group (CAVA) Form 10-Q SEC Filing - Q3 FY2026opencapital.sh
  4. 4UBS cuts Cava stock price target to $85 on near-term headwinds By Investing.cominvesting.com
  5. 5CAVA 2Q Preview - StreetSignalstreetsignal.substack.com
  6. 6CAVA Group (CAVA) Q3 2026 Earnings — Beat Estimatesopencapital.sh
  7. 7CAVA Group Q3 2026 Earnings Date & Estimatesmarketbeat.com
  8. 8CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  9. 9CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 October 22, 2026: 80.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 80.0%

Outcome: Above 3%

What happened: The provided research does not identify a primary driver for an 80.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for CAVA's Q3 same-restaurant sales growth above 3% on October 22, 2026. On that date, traditional news was bearish, with UBS cutting CAVA's price target and reports highlighting traffic concerns [1][2][3][4]. Furthermore, social media analysis found no specific catalyst for such a positive move on October 22, 2026 [5]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, and traditional news would have likely pushed the market probability in the opposite direction.

📈 October 15, 2026: 81.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 81.0%

Outcome: Above 3%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market's increased probability for CAVA's Q3 same-restaurant sales growth to be "Above 3%" on October 15, 2026, was likely the positive sentiment generated by traditional financial news [6][7]. Melius Research upgraded CAVA to Buy with a $95 price target on that date, which, alongside reports of institutional investment and positive company developments like reaching its 500th restaurant milestone and a new menu launch, bolstered confidence in CAVA's performance [6][8][7][9]. No specific social media posts from key figures, company executives, or influential analysts directly predicting Q3 sales figures or driving an 81.0 percentage point spike were identified in the available information. Therefore, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant as a primary driver.
Sources (9)
  1. 1UBS cuts Cava stock price target to $85 on near-term headwinds By Investing.cominvesting.com
  2. 2UBS Maintains Buy on Cava Group, Lowers Price...benzinga.com
  3. 3How Investors Are Reacting To CAVA (CAVA) Traffic Concerns Before Earnings - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
  4. 4CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA) Shares Down 3.7% on Analyst Downgrade - Defense Worlddefenseworld.net
  5. 5Topic $cava | LunarCrush for AIlunarcrush.ai
  6. 6Institutional Cash And Upgrade Send CAVA Surgingblog.tipranks.com
  7. 7异动解读｜CAVA Group Inc.盘中上涨5.18%，Melius上调评级余温延续 - 老虎证券itiger.com
  8. 8CAVA Group (CAVA) Stock News: Why It's Moving, Oct 2026 | Clearthesisclearthesis.ai
  9. 9【异动解读】CAVA Group10月15日大涨：500店+千店计划+地中海快餐news.10jqka.com.cn

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if CAVA's same restaurant sales growth for Q3 is above 3%. Conversely, it resolves to "No" if the sales growth for Q3 is 3% or less. The market is scheduled to end on November 4th at 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of March 20, 2027.

Market Discussion

As of October 24, 2026, CAVA Group had not yet reported fiscal Q3 2026 results, with the next report scheduled for November 4, 2026 [1][2]. The company's strong 9.0% same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026, which included 5.3% guest-traffic growth, led to some initial bullishness in prediction markets post-Q2 [3][4][5][6]. However, management's reaffirmed full-year guidance implied a significant deceleration for Q3, aligning with pre-Q2 Street estimates around 4.3%-5.0% and a more cautious broader investor sentiment in October, citing sector-wide traffic concerns [3][4][7][8][9]. Prediction market pricing on October 24 reflected these mixed views, indicating an approximately 58% chance of Q3 growth above 4% and 29% above 5% [10][11][9].

Sources (11)
  1. 1CAVA Group Q3 2023 Earnings Results & Reportmarketbeat.com
  2. 2CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
  3. 3CAVA 2Q Preview - StreetSignalstreetsignal.substack.com
  4. 4CAVA Group Q3 2024 Earnings Results & Reportmarketbeat.com
  5. 5CAVA CEO Sees 'Tipping Point' for Mediterranean Segment as Sales Soar - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
  6. 6CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE:CAVA) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript - Insider Monkeyinsidermonkey.com
  7. 7CAVA Group (CAVA) Q2 2026 Earnings — Beat Estimatesopencapital.sh
  8. 8CAVA Q3 2026 Earnings Report — CAVA GROUP, INC. Revenue & Financial Results | Market Cap Arenamarketcaparena.com
  9. 9CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  10. 10CAVA Group Reports Q3 2026 10-Q Filing with 116.8 Million Shares Outstandingkalkinemedia.com
  11. 11CAVA cuts full-year forecast as consumers pull backnrn.com

5. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Nov 4, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 57 Caution

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score56Caution
Trade quality20% of score60Caution
Trust score57Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity72
Outcome is hard to influenceGood
Info fairness40
High Risk
Trade quality60
Order book is thinCaution
Market integrity
72Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“KXCAVA 26NOVCOMP” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Trade quality
60Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

Move quality avg 60 across 1 legs

Above 7%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 40h

No trades in the last 40h — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 6%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality60Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
60 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 39h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 11%–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 4, 2026

6. What are the current Q3 2026 same-restaurant sales growth forecasts for CAVA from major analyst firms like UBS and the broader Wall Street consensus?

UBS Q3 2026 Sales Growth Forecast3% (UBS, October 22, 2026) [1]
Market-aggregation Median Q3 2026 Sales Growth4.36% [2]
Kalshi Market Probability (>3%)85% (as of October 24, 2026) [3]
UBS provided a Q3 2026 sales forecast below broader consensus. UBS forecasts CAVA's Q3 2026 same-restaurant sales growth at approximately 3%, which is below the broader consensus estimate of 3.6% [1]. Despite this lower forecast, UBS maintained a Buy rating for CAVA, though it did adjust its price target downward to $85 on October 22, 2026 [1].
Broader market sentiment indicates higher Q3 2026 sales growth expectations. A market-aggregation page indicates a higher median forecast of 4.36% for CAVA's Q3 2026 same-restaurant sales growth, with analyst estimates ranging from 3.42% to 5.5% [2]. Further market sentiment from the Kalshi market, as of October 24, 2026, implies an 85% chance that CAVA's Q3 2026 same-restaurant sales growth will exceed 3%, a 58% chance it will be above 4%, and a 29% chance it will surpass 5% [3]. This market is set to resolve following CAVA's earnings release on November 4 [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1UBS cuts Cava stock price target to $85 on near-term...investing.com
  2. 2CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Stock Price, News & Chart | 4Conservative Finance4conservative.com
  3. 3CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

7. Which components of same-restaurant sales—guest traffic or price/mix—are expected to drive the forecasted slowdown in CAVA's Q3 2026 growth?

Fiscal 2026 same-restaurant sales guidance4.5%–6.5% [1][2]
Q2 2026 same-restaurant sales pace9.0% [1][2]
Prediction market Q3 sales outlookHigh probability above 3%, lower probability above 5% (as of Oct 24, 2026) [3][4]
CAVA's Q3 2026 sales growth slowdown is likely driven by traffic. The company's same-restaurant sales growth for Q3 2026 is expected to decelerate, primarily due to weaker guest-traffic growth, although price/mix is still projected to contribute positively [1][2][5]. This specific attribution to traffic versus price/mix for Q3 2026 is an inference, as CAVA has not publicly released a detailed forecast for these individual components [1][2][5]. CAVA has reiterated its fiscal 2026 same-restaurant-sales guidance of 4.5%–6.5% [1][2], which suggests a slowdown from the 9.0% pace observed in Q2 2026 as the year progresses [1][2].
Management plans no pricing changes; prediction markets indicate modest growth. Commentary from CAVA management does not indicate any planned reductions in menu pricing or changes in mix contribution [1][5][6]. Consistent with a projected slowdown toward mid-single digits, the prediction market, as of October 24, 2026, indicated a high probability of Q3 same-restaurant sales exceeding 3% but a lower probability of exceeding 5% [3][4].
Sources (6)
  1. 1CAVA Group Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  2. 2CAVA Group, Inc. Press Release, datedsec.gov
  3. 3CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5Cava Q2 2026 earnings beat on same-store sales, traffic...finance.yahoo.com
  6. 6CAVA Q2 Earnings: New Store Cohorts Are Outselling the...tikr.com

8. How has CAVA's recent same-restaurant sales growth trended compared to its primary competitor, Chipotle (CMG), leading into the Q3 2026 reporting period?

CAVA Q2 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth9.0% [1][2]
Chipotle Q2 2026 Comparable-Restaurant Sales Increase2.2% [3][4]
Q2 2026 Sales Growth Difference (CAVA vs. Chipotle)6.8 percentage points [2][3]
CAVA significantly outpaced Chipotle in Q2 2026 sales growth. In Q2 2026, CAVA reported an acceleration in same-restaurant sales to 9.0%, which comprised 5.3% guest-traffic growth and 3.7% from menu-price and product-mix contributions [1][2]. Conversely, Chipotle’s comparable-restaurant sales increased by 2.2% in the same quarter, driven by 1.0% transaction growth and 1.2% average-check growth [3][4]. This performance resulted in CAVA exceeding Chipotle's comparable growth by approximately 6.8 percentage points in Q2 [2][3].
CAVA projected stronger Q3 growth, widening the gap with Chipotle. Looking ahead to Q3 2026, both companies’ guidance suggested an even wider disparity in sales performance. CAVA reaffirmed its full-year same-restaurant-sales guidance of 4.5%-6.5%, anticipating a recovery to mid-single-digit growth after a temporary disruption [1][2][5]. In contrast, Chipotle guided for Q3 2026 comparable sales of approximately 1%, citing a 200 basis point reduction due to an industry food-safety issue [3][4]. This projected CAVA for mid-single-digit recovery compared to Chipotle’s approximate 1% growth [2][3]. Analyst consensus and prediction market snapshots for CAVA’s Q3 same-restaurant sales growth were around 5.0% [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1CAVA Group Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  2. 2CAVA Group, Inc. Press Release, datedsec.gov
  3. 3Chipotle Raises Full-Year Same-Store Sales Forecast After...mlq.ai
  4. 4Chipotle InvestorRoom - Homeir.chipotle.com
  5. 5CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptliptonfinancialservices.com
  6. 6CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

9. What alternative data sources, such as foot traffic or credit card transaction data, are available for tracking CAVA's intra-quarter performance during Q3 2026?

Mobile Foot Traffic GrowthAbove 20% year over year (every month of 2026 so far) [1]
Alternative KPI TimingNear-real-time via Bloomberg Alternative Data Analytics [1]
KPI Nowcast Improvement3 G4 5 days (versus 7 G4 14 days with entitled data) [1]
Key alternative data sources track CAVA's intra-quarter performance during Q3 2026. These include mobile-location foot traffic and credit/debit card transaction panels, with Bloomberg's Alternative Data Analytics platform offering near-real-time key performance indicators [1]. While access to transaction data is generally commercial, Bloomberg Second Measure analytics are available via Bloomberg Data License [1]. For instance, mobile-location foot traffic data, such as from Placer.ai, indicated visits increased over 20% year over year in every month of 2026 thus far; however, this growth was largely influenced by new restaurant openings and does not serve as a direct proxy for same-restaurant sales [1].
Transaction data provides specific metrics for monitoring CAVA's spending and sales trends. Credit/debit-card transaction panels from sources like Bloomberg Second Measure can track spending, transaction counts, average ticket, and inferred sales trends [1]. Additional potentially useful sources to monitor include CAVA's first-party digital/app and ordering data, delivery-platform activity, Google Trends/search interest, and restaurant-level labor/job postings, though these were not identified as publicly available, CAVA-specific Q3 2026 quantified series in the search results [1].
An interpretation framework guides analysis of these nowcasting tools to assess CAVA's performance. This involves comparing foot-traffic growth with estimated card-spend growth, then adjusting for CAVA's net new restaurant openings [1]. If traffic significantly exceeds the comparable-store base, it implies transaction growth, while card spend growing faster than visits suggests pricing or mix/average-check expansion [1]. These alternative data sources serve as directional nowcasts, as they do not precisely replicate CAVA's reported same-restaurant-sales methodology, but entitled data can improve company KPI nowcasts to 3-5 days compared to 7-14 days without such data [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1Bloomberg Introduces Alternative Data Entitlements on the...bloomberg.com

10. How does CAVA’s management guidance for full-year 2026 necessitate a deceleration in same-restaurant sales for the second half of the year?

Full-Year 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Guidance4.5%–6.5% [1][2][3]
Q2 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth9.0% [1][2]
Implied H2 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth (midpoint)around 1.8% [1][2]
CAVA's reaffirmed guidance implies significant second-half sales deceleration. Despite reporting robust same-restaurant sales growth of 9.7% in Q1 and 9.0% in Q2, CAVA reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance range of 4.5%–6.5% [1][2][3]. This consistent guidance, following strong initial quarters, necessitates a considerably lower growth rate for the remainder of the year to align with the overall annual outlook [1][2][3].
Second-half sales growth is projected significantly below Q2 performance. Considering the full-year guidance in conjunction with the Q1 and Q2 results, the implied average same-restaurant sales growth for the second half of 2026 is approximately 0%–4.0%, with a midpoint around 1.8% [1][2]. This required second-half average is substantially lower than the 9.0% reported in Q2. Management also indicated that achieving the low end of the full-year guidance would necessitate slightly negative same-restaurant sales for the latter half of the year [1][2][3][4].
Management cites various factors for its cautious sales outlook. These include sales pressure stemming from Cyclospora-related food-safety concerns, broader macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, and assumptions regarding the duration of these pressures [3][4]. Prediction market data for Q3 2026 same-restaurant sales growth also suggested expectations below Q2's 9.0% performance, with probabilities of 85% for growth above 3%, 58% for growth above 4%, and 29% for growth above 5% [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1CAVA Group, Inc. Press Release, datedsec.gov
  2. 2CAVA Group Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  3. 3CAVA Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcripttickertrends.io
  4. 4CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptliptonfinancialservices.com
  5. 5CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

CAVA is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 2026 results on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, with the release expected around 4:10 p.m. ET and a conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET [1]. The prior quarter, fiscal Q2 2026 (ended July 12, 2026), showed 9.0% same-restaurant sales growth, including 5.3% guest-traffic growth and 3.7% menu-price/product-mix growth [2]. Revenue for Q2 2026 was $365.4 million (+31.3%), with 17 net new restaurants opened, restaurant-level margin of 25.7%, and adjusted EBITDA of $54.7 million (+30.0%) [2]. The company's digital revenue mix was 39.0% [2]. Management's fiscal-2026 outlook for same-restaurant sales growth is 4.5%-6.5%, restaurant-level profit margin 23.7%-24.3%, and adjusted EBITDA $181-$191 million [2][3]. Unchanged guidance implies materially slower Q3-Q4 comps than the 9% Q2 result [2][3]. Analyst snapshots place Q3 2026 same-restaurant-sales expectations around 3%-5%, with OctagonAI citing approximately 4.9%-5.0% consensus and UBS reportedly expecting near 3.0% versus a 3.6% consensus [4]. A Kalshi-linked market snapshot from October 24, 2026, indicated an 85% price for CAVA Q3 same-restaurant sales above 3% [5].
Bullish catalysts include same-restaurant sales above consensus, renewed traffic strength, stable restaurant-level margins, strong new-unit performance, and maintained or raised 2026 opening guidance [4][3]. Conversely, bearish catalysts include a comp near or below 3%, traffic deterioration, food-safety/macro pressure, margin compression from inputs and delivery mix, and unchanged guidance signaling a slowdown [4][3]. UBS maintained a Buy rating but cut its CAVA price target from $90 to $85 on October 22, 2026, citing near-term headwinds, highlighting Q3 trends, Q4 momentum, food-safety effects, and new-store performance as key investor focus areas [4]. An analysis suggests a Q3 comp above 7% with restaurant-level margin at least 25% would constitute a strong bullish surprise [3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 20, 2027
  • Closes: March 20, 2027
Sources (5)
  1. 1Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 4th, 2026investor.cava.com
  2. 2Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Group Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  3. 3CAVA Beat Earnings and the Stock Collapsed. Here's What the Price Actually Requires.ainvest.com
  4. 4UBS cuts Cava stock price target to $85 on near-term headwinds By Investing.cominvesting.com
  5. 5CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com