CAVA same restaurant sales growth in Q1 2027

CAVA projects moderate long-term same-restaurant sales growth. The company's FY2027 long-term algorithm forecasts low- to mid-single-digit same-restaurant sales growth, approximately 2%-5%, alongside at least 16% unit-count expansion ^[1][2][3][4]. CFO Tricia Tolivar stated this on the November 4, 2026, Q3 2026 earnings call ^[1][2][3][4]. CAVA reported Q1 FY2026 same-restaurant sales growth of 9.7%, driven by 6.8% traffic and 2.9% pricing/mix ^[5][6][7][8]. This was its strongest quarterly comparable since Q1 2025's 10.8% ^[5][6][7][8]. Total Q1 FY2026 revenue reached $434.4M, a 32.2% year-over-year increase, with 459 restaurants in operation ^[5][6][7][8]. On November 4, 2026, CAVA revised its FY2026 same-restaurant sales guidance upward from 4.5%-6.5% to 6.0%-7.0% ^{[9][3][10][11][12][4]}. It also raised net new restaurant openings from 75-77 to 76-78 ^{[9][3][10][11][12][4]}. This guidance update followed Q3 2026 comparable sales growth of 3.1%, which was reduced by roughly 150 basis points due to a Cyclospora outbreak and related fresh-produce concerns ^[9][10]. CAVA reached 500 restaurants in Q3 2026, ahead of schedule, reporting average unit volumes (AUV) of $3.1M ^{[9][12][4][1][2]}. This AUV represents an increase from $2.9M a year prior and approximately $2.4M several years ago ^{[9][12][4][1][2]}. New restaurant productivity stands at roughly 100% ^[4]. The company targets at least 1,000 locations by 2032, with plans to enter the Las Vegas market later in 2026 ^{[9][12][4][1][2]}.

Market sentiment points to lower Q1 2027 same-restaurant sales growth. Kalshi prediction markets for CAVA's Q1 2027 same-restaurant sales growth (ending May 18, 2027) show 'above 0.0%' and 'above 2.5%' both trading at less than 1% Yes ^[13]. This suggests market expectations for very low or negative comparable growth in that period ^[13]. Total restaurant count markets show less than 1% probability of exceeding 525, 530, or 535 restaurants by Q1 2027 ^[14]. CAVA's Q1 FY2027 earnings report is anticipated around February 22, 2027, with the fiscal Q1 spanning 16 weeks ^{[15][16][17][18]}. The company's stock declined 11% following its Q3 2026 earnings release on November 4, 2026 ^[11]. Q3 revenue of $356.4M missed the $358.4M consensus, and adjusted EBITDA of $42M fell short of the $44M expected ^[11][19][20]. Following these results, DA Davidson lowered its price target from $75 to $60, maintaining a Neutral rating ^[11][19][20]. RBC, KeyBanc, and Telsey also reduced their price targets ^[11][19][20]. The average analyst price target is $83.13, implying 34% upside from the November 4 close ^[19]. Analysts project CAVA's revenue growth to decelerate from 32% in Q1 2026 to 28% in Q2 2026, 24% in Q3 2026, 23% in Q4 2026, and stabilize near 20% by mid-2027 ^[21][22][18]. This deceleration is attributed to the 16-week fiscal first quarter rolling off and new-unit comparisons hardening ^[21][22][18]. FY2027 revenue is estimated at $1.82B with an EPS of $0.74 ^[21][22][18].