Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that CAVA will have Above 500 total restaurants in fiscal 2026, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market experienced a sharp, vertical repricing on extremely low volume. The probability of CAVA meeting its fiscal 2026 restaurant count target jumped from 1.0% to a current price of 96.0% over the course of a single trading day. This entire move occurred on a total volume of just 10 contracts. Such thin liquidity indicates the price was set by a minimal number of participants and may not reflect a broad consensus. With price history limited to a single day's spike, no technical support or resistance levels can be established.
The catalyst for the sudden price move is not contained within the provided research materials. The supplied context concerns an Argentine soccer club, which is unrelated to the CAVA restaurant chain that is the subject of the market. The abrupt shift in sentiment from highly improbable to near-certain suggests that traders acted on external information, likely related to company guidance on unit growth. The current 96.0% price implies very high conviction among the few active traders, but the lack of trading depth makes this signal fragile.
  • CAVA will likely exceed 510 restaurants, driven by updated 2026 guidance.
  • Historical accuracy and potential overperformance suggest total restaurants will surpass 515.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 520 46.0% 15.0% Market higher by 31.0pp
Above 515 62.0% 66.3% Model higher by 4.3pp
Above 505 96.0% 97.0% Model higher by 1.0pp
Above 500 99.0% 98.0% Market higher by 1.0pp
Above 530 18.0% 1.0% Market higher by 17.0pp

Current Context

The provided research output contains a definitive interpretation for the entity CAVA. In the context of the provided sources, CAVA refers to the Argentine football club Victoriano Arenas, which is competing in the 2026 Primera División C de Argentina [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. The raw research explicitly states this entity is a football club, rather than a business with restaurant locations or corporate key performance indicators. Based on this definition, CAVA (Victoriano Arenas) has no restaurants.
Despite this specific interpretation, other portions of the raw research output detail CAVA Group, Inc.'s restaurant operations and guidance. As of April 19, 2026, the end of fiscal first quarter 2026, CAVA Group, Inc. operated 459 restaurants [14][15][16]. The company updated its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, targeting 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings for the year [14][15][17][18].
CAVA Group, Inc. reported strong Q1 2026 financial performance and positive market sentiment. Key indicators for fiscal Q1 2026 included 32.2% revenue growth to $434.4 million, 9.7% same-restaurant sales growth driven by 6.8% traffic growth, and a 25.1% restaurant-level profit margin [15][17][18]. Full-year 2026 guidance for CAVA Group, Inc. also includes expected same-restaurant sales growth of 4.5% to 6.5%, restaurant-level profit margins of 23.7% to 24.3%, and adjusted EBITDA of $181 million to $191 million [14][17][18]. Market observers maintain a generally positive outlook, citing aggressive expansion, unit economics, and operational momentum as drivers for long-term value, despite high valuations [19].
Sources (19)
  1. 1CAVA vs. Sacachispas (May 23, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
  2. 2CAVA 1-0 Mercedes (Mar 14, 2026) Final Score - ESPNespn.com
  3. 3Lamadrid vs. CAVA (Apr 17, 2026) Team Stats - ESPNespn.com
  4. 4CAVA 1-0 Mercedes (Mar 14, 2026) Team Stats - ESPNespn.com
  5. 5CAVA vs. Juventud Unida (Sep 26, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
  6. 6Sacachispas vs. CAVA (Sep 19, 2026) Live Scoreespn.com
  7. 7CAVA vs. JJ Urquiza (Jul 25, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
  8. 8CAVA vs. Berazategui (Aug 22, 2026) Live Scoreespn.com
  9. 9CAVA vs. Lamadrid (Aug 15, 2026) Live Scoreespn.com
  10. 10Lugano vs. CAVA (Aug 8, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
  11. 11CAVA vs. Estrella (May 3, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
  12. 12CAVA vs. Juventud Unida (26 Sep, 2026) Live Score - ESPNafrica.espn.com
  13. 13CAVA 0-0 Español (Mar 23, 2026) Final Score - ESPNespn.com
  14. 14CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  15. 15CAVA GROUP REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ___________________________________________ YEAR OVER YEAR CAVA REVENUE GROWTH OF 32.2% INCLUDING SAME RESTAURANT SALES OF 9.7% DRIVEN BY GUEST TRAFFIC GROWTH OF 6.8% ___________________________________________ 20 NET NEW CAVA RESTAURANT OPENINGS DURING QUARTER ___________________________________________ FIRST QUARTER 2026 CAVA RESTAURANT-LEVEL PROFIT MARGIN OF 25.1% ___________________________________________ WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 19, 2026) - CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA) (“CAVA Group” or the “Company”), the category-defining Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026. “Amid today's broader macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainty, our first quarter results reflect our position as a clear industry leader and our ability to meet the moment for the modern consumer," said Brett Schulman, Co-Founder and CEO. "First quarter same restaurant sales grew 9.7%, including traffic growth of 6.8%, and we opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, with recent new market entries across the Midwest in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus. These results, which include the lap of strong prior year comparisons, speak to the structural strength of our business, the resonance of our compelling value proposition, and our position as the dominant leader in Mediterranean – all of which fuel our confidence to sustain this momentum going forward." Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Highlights:s202.q4cdn.com
  16. 16CAVA Group - 10-Q quarterly report FY2026 Q1companiesmarketcap.com
  17. 17Cava (CAVA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  18. 18CAVA Group (CAVA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  19. 19CAVA: Expansion Remains On Track As Comps Improve (NYSE:CAVA) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 July 29, 2026: 90.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%

Outcome: Above 515

What happened: There is no evidence of a 90.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market "CAVA total restaurants in fiscal 2026" on July 29, 2026 [1]. The provided information indicates the query may be referencing a misinterpretation of a $90 price target set by Morgan Stanley on July 15, 2026, which led to a 6.1% stock increase for CAVA but is unrelated to a prediction market's percentage point movement on restaurant count [2][3][4][1]. Therefore, no primary driver for the described market movement on July 29, 2026, can be identified, and social media activity was irrelevant as no such event is confirmed.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Why CAVA Group (CAVA) Stock Is Up Today | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com
  2. 2Why Is CAVA (CAVA) Stock Soaring Todayinvestor.wedbush.com
  3. 3CAVA is 'not a cheap stock.' Investors should buy it anyway, Morgan Stanley sayscnbc.com
  4. 4Why Is CAVA (CAVA) Stock Soaring Todaybusiness.theantlersamerican.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves based on CAVA's total number of restaurants in fiscal year 2026. A YES resolution occurs if the total number of restaurants is above the specified numerical threshold for a given contract (e.g., above 520), while a NO resolution occurs if the total is at or below that threshold. Trading for this market ends on February 25 at 4:00 PM EST.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 500 $0.99 $0.05 99%
Above 505 $0.98 $0.06 96%
Above 510 $0.91 $0.15 89%
Above 515 $0.62 $0.42 62%
Above 520 $0.56 $0.53 46%
Above 530 $0.19 $0.89 18%
Above 525 $0.27 $0.76 17%

Market Discussion

CAVA Group announced 459 total restaurants at the end of the first quarter of 2026 (ended April 19, 2026), and on May 19, 2026, it raised its fiscal full-year 2026 guidance to 75–77 net new restaurant openings [1][2][3][4][5][6]. With 439 restaurants at the end of fiscal 2025, this guidance implies an estimated fiscal 2026 year-end total of 514 to 516 restaurants [7][8][9][10][11][12]. Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, consistently framing CAVA as a high-growth expansion story with strong new store productivity [6][13][14][15][7][8][9][10][11][12].

Sources (15)
  1. 1CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  2. 2Q1 2024 Earnings Supplemental Materialss202.q4cdn.com
  3. 3CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  4. 4CAVA raises 2026 outlook after strong Q1 report, shares popproactiveinvestors.com
  5. 5Is CAVA Stock Undervalued in 2026? TIKR’s $213 Target Implies Around 139% Total Return | TIKR.comtikr.com
  6. 6Here’s Why CAVA Stock Raised Guidance After a 7% Traffic Quarter Despite Macro Pressure | TIKR.comtikr.com
  7. 7www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  8. 8www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  9. 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  10. 10www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  11. 11www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  12. 12www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  13. 13CAVA gets fresh Buy rating at UBS as growth story stands out in tough macro environmentproactiveinvestors.com
  14. 14CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA) Stock Forecast & Analyst...simplywall.st
  15. 15CAVA Stock: UBS Turns Bullish, Sees 'Compelling Growth...stocktwits.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 63 Caution

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score69Caution
Trade quality20% of score40High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score63Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXCAVAA-27FEBREST-500 carried 44% of its $568 tape (print is 51d old)

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Above 510” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
48Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

7 contracts · worst first

Above 51032
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 52060
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 500—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 505—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 515—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 530—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 525—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

7 contracts · worst first

Above 500—
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Above 505—
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Above 510—
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Above 515—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Above 520—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Above 530—
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Above 525—
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

7 contracts · worst first

Above 500100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 505100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 510100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 515100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 520100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 530100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 525100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
40High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 50 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: book too thin to fill

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Above 500–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 505–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 51032Market scoreLiquidity32Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 32
Liquidity
32 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 515–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 52060Market scoreLiquidity60Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 60
Liquidity
60 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 530–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 525–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 18, 2026

6. What macroeconomic trends in the final three quarters of fiscal 2026 could cause CAVA to revise its new restaurant opening guidance?

FY2026 Net New Restaurant Openings Guidance75 to 77 [1][2][3]
Guidance DateMay 19, 2026 [1][2][3]
Restaurant Operators No New Locations H2 202657% [4]
CAVA’s restaurant opening guidance faces risks from labor market challenges. CAVA Group’s fiscal full-year 2026 guidance for net new restaurant openings is currently 75 to 77, as stated on May 19, 2026 [1][2][3]. Management previously increased this guidance, citing that the primary constraint on their pace of expansion is the ability to build a robust pipeline of leaders ready for new roles [5][6][7]. Consequently, macroeconomic trends that exacerbate labor availability issues, drive wage inflation, or reduce consumer demand to an extent that impairs CAVA’s ability to adequately staff, train, and launch new restaurants with the desired operational quality represent the clearest risk for a revision to this guidance [5][6][7].
Various economic pressures could complicate CAVA's future restaurant expansion plans. Macroeconomic risks emerging in the second half of fiscal 2026 that could necessitate revisions to CAVA's expansion guidance include sustained cost pressures across labor, food, construction, and insurance sectors [8][9][4][10]. Additionally, tightening household budgets could reduce guest traffic, while elevated interest rates might impact capital expenditures, and geopolitical uncertainty could disrupt supply chains [8][9][4][10]. These conditions could make it more difficult to recruit and train leaders for new stores, put pressure on unit economics, or diminish confidence in the planned opening pace if new-store sales or traffic decline [5][6][7].
Broader industry trends suggest caution in restaurant expansion efforts. This outlook aligns with the wider restaurant industry, where a significant 57% of operators do not plan to open new locations in the second half of 2026 [4]. This indicates a general shift away from aggressive scaling towards a more sustainable and intentional approach to site selection [4].
Sources (10)
  1. 1CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  2. 2CAVA GROUP REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ___________________________________________ YEAR OVER YEAR CAVA REVENUE GROWTH OF 32.2% INCLUDING SAME RESTAURANT SALES OF 9.7% DRIVEN BY GUEST TRAFFIC GROWTH OF 6.8% ___________________________________________ 20 NET NEW CAVA RESTAURANT OPENINGS DURING QUARTER ___________________________________________ FIRST QUARTER 2026 CAVA RESTAURANT-LEVEL PROFIT MARGIN OF 25.1% ___________________________________________ WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 19, 2026) - CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA) (“CAVA Group” or the “Company”), the category-defining Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026. “Amid today's broader macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainty, our first quarter results reflect our position as a clear industry leader and our ability to meet the moment for the modern consumer," said Brett Schulman, Co-Founder and CEO. "First quarter same restaurant sales grew 9.7%, including traffic growth of 6.8%, and we opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, with recent new market entries across the Midwest in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus. These results, which include the lap of strong prior year comparisons, speak to the structural strength of our business, the resonance of our compelling value proposition, and our position as the dominant leader in Mediterranean – all of which fuel our confidence to sustain this momentum going forward." Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Highlights:s202.q4cdn.com
  3. 3Cava (CAVA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 42026 State of the Restaurant Industry: Mid-Year Report | Restaurant365restaurant365.com
  5. 5CAVA_Q12026, Page: 3Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  6. 6CAVA_Q12026, Page: 7Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  7. 7CAVA_Q12026, Page: 4Octagon Agentoctagonai.co
  8. 8Restaurant Industry H1 2026 Outlook: No Catalysts for Turnaround | QSR Proqsr.pro
  9. 9Restaurant Demand Outlook: H1 2026 in Review and H2 Scenariosclearcogs.com
  10. 10Press Releases | National Restaurant Associationrestaurant.org

7. How accurate was CAVA's new restaurant opening guidance in fiscal years 2024 and 2025 compared to its actual results?

FY2024 Actual Net New Openings58 [1][2][3][4][5]
FY2024 Final Guidance Range56 to 58 [1][2][3][4][5]
FY2025 Actual Net New Openings72 [6][7][8][9]
CAVA accurately met its restaurant opening targets in fiscal year 2024. The company demonstrated high accuracy in its new restaurant opening guidance for the year. CAVA's final guidance for net new restaurant openings was 56 to 58, which represented an increase from an earlier projection of 54 to 57. The company successfully achieved 58 net new openings, aligning precisely with the top end of its raised guidance [1][2][3][4][5].
CAVA exceeded its restaurant opening projections for fiscal year 2025. The company initially guided for 62 to 66 net new restaurant openings. This guidance was subsequently raised twice; first to 64 to 68 in May 2025, and then to 68 to 70 in August 2025. Ultimately, CAVA surpassed its final guidance range, achieving 72 net new restaurant openings for fiscal 2025 [6][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1CAVA Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2024 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  2. 2Cava Group, Inc. (CAVA) 10-K Annual Report February 2025last10k.com
  3. 3cava group reports fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2024...sec.gov
  4. 4Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Group Reports Third Quarter 2024 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  5. 5Documentsec.gov
  6. 6CAVA Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2025 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  7. 7CAVA Group Reports Second Quarter 2025 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  8. 8Cava Group, Inc. (CAVA) 10-K Annual Report February 2026last10k.com
  9. 9Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Group Reports Second Quarter 2025 Resultsinvestor.cava.com

8. How does CAVA's projected new unit growth rate for fiscal 2026 compare to fast-casual peers like Chipotle (CMG) and Sweetgreen (SG)?

CAVA 2026 Net New Restaurant Openings75 to 77 [1][2]
Chipotle 2026 New Restaurant Openings350 to 370 [3][4]
Sweetgreen 2026 Net New Restaurant OpeningsApproximately 13 [5][6][7]
CAVA projects substantial new unit expansion for fiscal year 2026. The company has provided guidance for 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings during this period [1][2]. Based on CAVA's 459 restaurants operating at the end of Q1 2026, the company anticipates a total of 516 to 518 restaurants by the close of fiscal year 2026 [1][8].
CAVA's growth rate differs significantly from fast-casual competitors. For the same fiscal year, Chipotle (CMG) has projected a considerably higher range of 350 to 370 new restaurant openings [3][4]. Sweetgreen (SG), conversely, anticipates approximately 13 net new restaurant openings for fiscal year 2026 [5][6][7].
Sources (8)
  1. 1CAVA Group posts 32% Q1 2026 revenue growth | CAVA 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
  2. 2CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  3. 3CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - Apr 29, 2026newsroom.chipotle.com
  4. 4CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTSir.chipotle.com
  5. 5Chipotle's 2026 Growth Plan: Cannibalization vs. New Market TAMainvest.com
  6. 6Sweetgreen, Inc. Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  7. 7Sweetgreen (SG) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  8. 8CAVA Crosses $1 Billion Revenue: Mediterranean Fast-Casual Growth Story | QSR Proqsr.pro

9. What do alternative data sources, such as construction permit filings and real estate leasing data, indicate about CAVA's new restaurant pipeline for the remainder of fiscal 2026?

Net new restaurants opened Q1 202620 (Q1 2026) [1][2][3]
Total restaurants459 (as of April 19, 2026) [1][2][3]
FY 2026 net new openings guidance75 to 77 [2][3][1]
Alternative data sources, including construction permit filings and real estate leasing information, suggest CAVA's new restaurant pipeline aligns with its expansion trajectory and company guidance [4][5][6][7][8][2][3][1]. CAVA successfully opened 20 net new restaurants in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, bringing its total to 459 locations as of April 19, 2026 [1][2][3]. The company has set guidance for 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings for the full fiscal year 2026, which implies an expectation of 55 to 57 net new openings during the remainder of the year [2][3][1].
This expansion is corroborated by construction permits and entry into new markets. Alternative data corroborates this growth through recent construction permit filings observed in locations such as Austin, Jacksonville, and Cleveland, alongside tracked real estate leasing activity for new build-outs and tenant infills through mid-2026 [4][5][6][7][8]. CAVA has also broadened its market presence by entering new areas including Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus, with additional Columbus locations already planned, indicating a widening pipeline beyond its established core markets [2][9][10][11][12][13][14]. However, while CAVA typically leases its restaurants with standard 10-year terms and 5-year renewal options, public data does not provide a specific permit-by-permit or lease-by-lease count for all future signed restaurants. Consequently, it is not possible to confirm the precise number of remaining fiscal 2026 openings using these alternative data sources alone [2][9][10][11][12][13][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Cava Group, Inc. (CAVA) 8-K Earnings Release - May 2026last10k.com
  2. 2Documentsec.gov
  3. 3CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  4. 4CAVA | Real Estate Contacts & Site Requirements | CREHQcrehq.com
  5. 5TDLR TABS - Project Detailstdlr.texas.gov
  6. 6CAVA OK’d to build-out at former Baymeadows Burger Barn | Jax Daily Recordjaxdailyrecord.com
  7. 7CAVA Mediterranean Restaurant Files $900K Permit for University Circle Location | Urbynurbynai.com
  8. 8CAVA Tech Ridge | Austin, TX | Opening ~Sep 2026 | Zabalistzabalist.com
  9. 9www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  10. 10www.defenseworld.netOctagon Agentdefenseworld.net
  11. 11www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  12. 12www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  13. 13www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
  14. 14www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com

10. Which financial metrics in CAVA's upcoming Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings reports will be the strongest indicators of their ability to achieve their year-end store count target?

Fiscal 2026 Net New Openings Guidance75 to 77 locations [1][2][3][4]
Fiscal 2026 Pre-opening Costs$22.0 to $22.5 million [3][4]
Q1 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth9.7% [3][4]
Pre-opening costs are a key financial indicator for store expansion. CAVA has increased its fiscal 2026 guidance for net new restaurant openings to between 75 and 77 locations [1][2][3][4]. The company's updated pre-opening cost range of $22.0 to $22.5 million for fiscal 2026 serves as a direct financial indicator of the scale and timing of this planned restaurant pipeline expansion [3][4]. Monitoring these costs in the Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings reports would reflect progress toward achieving the year-end store count target.
Robust financial performance underpins CAVA's significant unit growth plans. Strong financial performance, including Q1 2026 same-restaurant sales growth of 9.7% and restaurant-level profit margins of 25.1%, provides the financial liquidity and internal confidence necessary for the planned capital expenditure [3][4]. As of April 19, 2026, CAVA had reached a total of 459 restaurants, having opened 20 net new locations during Q1 2026 [3][4]. It is important to note that the fiscal calendar's Q1 spans 16 weeks, while subsequent quarters are 12 weeks each, which naturally front-loads store opening activity [5]. This seasonality should be considered when evaluating progress in Q2 and Q3.
Sources (5)
  1. 1CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  2. 2CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  3. 3Earnings Release 2026 Q1s202.q4cdn.com
  4. 4CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsbusinesswire.com
  5. 5Inside CAVA's Growth Machine: What the | QSR Research Hubqsrresearchhub.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

CAVA Group updated its fiscal year 2026 guidance, projecting 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings, an increase from its earlier guidance of 74 to 76 [1][2][3]. As of the first quarter ended April 19, 2026, CAVA had 459 total restaurants [1][2][3]. The company's updated 2026 full-year outlook includes same-restaurant sales growth of 4.5% to 6.5%, restaurant-level profit margins of 23.7% to 24.3%, and Adjusted EBITDA of $181.0 to $191.0 million [1][2][3].
Bullish catalysts for CAVA include strong same-restaurant sales growth driven by traffic, successful Midwest expansion, and digital channel momentum [4][5][6][7].
Conversely, bearish catalysts comprise a high valuation (P/E ratio), potential margin pressure from new menu items like Glazed Salmon, increased competitive intensity, and the challenge of lapping strong prior-year comparisons [4][5][6][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 26, 2027
  • Closes: May 26, 2027
Sources (7)
  1. 1CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
  2. 2CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Morningstarmorningstar.com
  3. 3CAVA GROUP REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS ___________________________________________ YEAR OVER YEAR CAVA REVENUE GROWTH OF 32.2% INCLUDING SAME RESTAURANT SALES OF 9.7% DRIVEN BY GUEST TRAFFIC GROWTH OF 6.8% ___________________________________________ 20 NET NEW CAVA RESTAURANT OPENINGS DURING QUARTER ___________________________________________ FIRST QUARTER 2026 CAVA RESTAURANT-LEVEL PROFIT MARGIN OF 25.1% ___________________________________________ WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 19, 2026) - CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA) (“CAVA Group” or the “Company”), the category-defining Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended April 19, 2026. “Amid today's broader macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainty, our first quarter results reflect our position as a clear industry leader and our ability to meet the moment for the modern consumer," said Brett Schulman, Co-Founder and CEO. "First quarter same restaurant sales grew 9.7%, including traffic growth of 6.8%, and we opened 20 net new restaurants during the quarter, with recent new market entries across the Midwest in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Columbus. These results, which include the lap of strong prior year comparisons, speak to the structural strength of our business, the resonance of our compelling value proposition, and our position as the dominant leader in Mediterranean – all of which fuel our confidence to sustain this momentum going forward." Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Highlights:s202.q4cdn.com
  4. 4Stock Research: CAVA – CAVA Group, Inc. | Jack Huiwp.jackhui.com.au
  5. 5CAVA Grew Revenue 32% and Opened 20 Restaurants Last Quarter. The Stock Is Down 30% From Its High | TIKR.comtikr.com
  6. 6CAVA Stock Forecast & Price Target 2026 | Is CAVA a Good Stock to Buy? | RockFlowrockflow.ai
  7. 7CAVA Stock Is Down Nearly 30% From Its High. Here’s Why the Stock Has Pulled Back Since | TIKR.comtikr.com