CAVA total restaurants in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- CAVA will likely exceed 510 restaurants, driven by updated 2026 guidance.
- Historical accuracy and potential overperformance suggest total restaurants will surpass 515.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 520 | 41.0% | 15.0% | Market higher by 26.0pp |
| Above 505 | 92.0% | 97.0% | Model higher by 5.0pp |
| Above 500 | 94.0% | 98.0% | Model higher by 4.0pp |
| Above 530 | 9.0% | 1.0% | Market higher by 8.0pp |
| Above 515 | 61.0% | 66.3% | Model higher by 5.3pp |
Current Context
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 July 29, 2026: 90.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 91.0%
Outcome: Above 515
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on CAVA's total number of restaurants in fiscal year 2026. A YES resolution occurs if the total number of restaurants is above the specified numerical threshold for a given contract (e.g., above 520), while a NO resolution occurs if the total is at or below that threshold. Trading for this market ends on February 25 at 4:00 PM EST.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 500 | $0.97 | $0.09 | 94% |
| Above 505 | $0.93 | $0.09 | 92% |
| Above 510 | $0.89 | $0.19 | 83% |
| Above 515 | $0.62 | $0.46 | 61% |
| Above 520 | $0.42 | $0.66 | 41% |
| Above 525 | $0.23 | $0.84 | 16% |
| Above 530 | $0.09 | $0.92 | 9% |
Market Discussion
CAVA Group announced 459 total restaurants at the end of the first quarter of 2026 (ended April 19, 2026), and on May 19, 2026, it raised its fiscal full-year 2026 guidance to 75–77 net new restaurant openings [^][^][^][^][^][^]. With 439 restaurants at the end of fiscal 2025, this guidance implies an estimated fiscal 2026 year-end total of 514 to 516 restaurants [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, consistently framing CAVA as a high-growth expansion story with strong new store productivity [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
5. What macroeconomic trends in the final three quarters of fiscal 2026 could cause CAVA to revise its new restaurant opening guidance?
| FY2026 Net New Restaurant Openings Guidance | 75 to 77 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Guidance Date | May 19, 2026 [^][^][^] |
| Restaurant Operators No New Locations H2 2026 | 57% [^] |
6. How accurate was CAVA's new restaurant opening guidance in fiscal years 2024 and 2025 compared to its actual results?
| FY2024 Actual Net New Openings | 58 [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| FY2024 Final Guidance Range | 56 to 58 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| FY2025 Actual Net New Openings | 72 [^][^][^][^] |
7. How does CAVA's projected new unit growth rate for fiscal 2026 compare to fast-casual peers like Chipotle (CMG) and Sweetgreen (SG)?
| CAVA 2026 Net New Restaurant Openings | 75 to 77 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Chipotle 2026 New Restaurant Openings | 350 to 370 [^][^] |
| Sweetgreen 2026 Net New Restaurant Openings | Approximately 13 [^][^][^] |
8. What do alternative data sources, such as construction permit filings and real estate leasing data, indicate about CAVA's new restaurant pipeline for the remainder of fiscal 2026?
| Net new restaurants opened Q1 2026 | 20 (Q1 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Total restaurants | 459 (as of April 19, 2026) [^][^][^] |
| FY 2026 net new openings guidance | 75 to 77 [^][^][^] |
9. Which financial metrics in CAVA's upcoming Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings reports will be the strongest indicators of their ability to achieve their year-end store count target?
| Fiscal 2026 Net New Openings Guidance | 75 to 77 locations [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Fiscal 2026 Pre-opening Costs | $22.0 to $22.5 million [^][^] |
| Q1 2026 Same-Restaurant Sales Growth | 9.7% [^][^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 26, 2027
- Closes: May 26, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: CAVA Group updated its fiscal year 2026 guidance, projecting 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings, an increase from its earlier guidance of 74 to 76 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: As of the first quarter ended April 19, 2026, CAVA had 459 total restaurants [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The company's updated 2026 full-year outlook includes same-restaurant sales growth of 4.5% to 6.5%, restaurant-level profit margins of 23.7% to 24.3%, and Adjusted EBITDA of $181.0 to $191.0 million [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts for CAVA include strong same-restaurant sales growth driven by traffic, successful Midwest expansion, and digital channel momentum [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.