Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Sweetgreen's restaurant-level profit margin to be Above 9% in fiscal 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market, which speculates on Sweetgreen's restaurant-level profit margin for fiscal 2026, is inactive. The price has been static, trading in a narrow 100-basis-point range between 51.0% and 52.0%. With only five data points recorded, all on the same day, there is no discernible trend or significant price movement. The current price of 52.0% represents the top of this limited range.
The most critical technical factor is the complete absence of trading volume. Zero contracts have been traded, which indicates that the price shown does not reflect active market participation or conviction. The price points are likely artifacts of the market's initial seeding or an automated market maker's quotes rather than a consensus formed by trading activity. Consequently, the price action shows no reaction to fundamental news, such as the reported decline in Sweetgreen's Q1 2026 restaurant-level profit margin to 10.0% from 17.9% a year prior.
Given the lack of volume, it is not possible to identify meaningful support or resistance levels. The price itself offers no reliable insight into market sentiment or expectations for Sweetgreen's full-year 2026 margin performance. The market is effectively dormant.
- Sweetgreen's 2026 margin appears below 9%, following Q1 10.0% results.
- Negative 2026 same-store sales guidance further challenges margin improvement.
- Q2 2026 earnings report on August 6 may influence full-year guidance.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 12.5% | 14.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 14.0pp |
| Above 12% | 16.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 16.0pp |
| Above 15% | 5.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 5.0pp |
| Above 13.5% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 6.0pp |
| Above 13% | 10.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 10.0pp |
Current Context
Sweetgreen's Q1 2026 restaurant-level profit margin declined significantly. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended March 29, 2026, Sweetgreen reported a restaurant-level profit margin of 10.0%, a decrease from 17.9% in the comparable period of 2025 [^][^][^]. This Q1 2026 decline stemmed primarily from a 12.8% negative change in same-store sales, attributed to increased promotional activity, ingredient usage, and investments in chicken and tofu portions [^][^][^]. Despite this performance, Sweetgreen maintains its full-year 2026 guidance for restaurant-level profit margin at 14.2% to 14.7% [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Strategic initiatives and operational developments are underway to support future margins. The company's 'Sweet Growth Transformation Plan' focuses on enhancing operational efficiency, strengthening culinary standards, and aligning incentive structures with restaurant-level performance [^]. For 2026, Sweetgreen plans to open approximately 13 to 15 net new restaurants, with about half of these incorporating 'Infinite Kitchen' technology [^][^]. The company is also testing a wraps platform, with potential for broader expansion [^][^].
No updated 2026 margin guidance has been issued despite recent market events. Sweetgreen's most recent company update confirms the fiscal 2026 restaurant-level profit margin guidance of 14.2%–14.7% from its Q1 2026 financial results [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Recent market commentary has discussed a cyclospora outbreak and its potential impact on traffic and sales, as well as improving traffic trends and wraps rollout momentum [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. However, these discussions have not included a revised restaurant-level margin forecast [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Sweetgreen is scheduled to release its second-quarter 2026 results on August 6, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Sweetgreen's restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026 is reported as above 12.5%; otherwise, it resolves to NO. Trading for this market concludes on February 25, 4:00 PM EST, and the maximum payout date is May 26, 2027. Settlement is determined by Sweetgreen's officially reported restaurant-level profit margin for fiscal 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 9% | $0.98 | $0.08 | 96% |
| Above 9.5% | $0.94 | $0.10 | 89% |
| Above 10% | $0.74 | $0.30 | 72% |
| Above 10.5% | $0.58 | $0.49 | 54% |
| Above 11% | $0.43 | $0.66 | 34% |
| Above 11.5% | $0.33 | $0.76 | 28% |
| Above 12% | $0.27 | $0.80 | 16% |
| Above 12.5% | $0.19 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Above 13% | $0.15 | $0.89 | 10% |
| Above 13.5% | $0.07 | $0.99 | 6% |
| Above 14.5% | $0.08 | $0.97 | 5% |
| Above 15% | $0.04 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Above 14% | $0.09 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Above 15.5% | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Sweetgreen has provided public guidance, stating its fiscal year 2026 restaurant-level profit margin is expected to be in the range of 14.2% to 14.7% [^][^][^][^][^]. However, the company reported a restaurant-level profit margin of 10.0% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, reflecting an approximate 800 basis point decline compared to the prior year due to negative same-store sales, higher ingredient usage, and increased promotional activity [^][^][^][^]. Specific trader discussion or prediction market commentary regarding this metric for the remainder of 2026 was not explicitly surfaced in the available data [^].
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score64Caution
Trade quality20% of score33High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score58Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
5. How might Sweetgreen's Q2 2026 earnings report on August 6 alter its full-year profit margin guidance of 14.2% to 14.7%?
| Q2 2026 Earnings Release | Thursday, August 6, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Full-Year 2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin Guidance | 14.2% to 14.7% [^][^][^] |
| Q1 2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin | 10.0% [^][^] |
Sweetgreen's Q2 earnings report may influence full-year profit margin guidance. Sweetgreen is set to release its second-quarter 2026 financial results on Thursday, August 6, 2026, after the market closes, with an earnings call scheduled for the same day [^][^][^]. The company has maintained its full-year 2026 guidance for restaurant-level profit margin at 14.2% to 14.7% following its Q1 2026 results in May [^][^][^]. However, the reported restaurant-level profit margin for the first quarter of 2026 was 10.0%, which is below the projected annual range [^][^].
Stronger performance is anticipated to meet Sweetgreen's annual financial targets. This Q1 discrepancy indicates management likely expects improved margin performance in subsequent quarters to achieve its annual objectives [^][^]. Several factors could influence Sweetgreen's Q2 2026 report and any potential guidance updates. These factors include the ongoing performance and scalability of its Infinite Kitchen technology, improvements in operational efficiencies, and trends in same-store sales, currently guided at -4.0% to -2.0% for 2026 [^][^][^].
Predicting guidance alteration from the Q2 report is currently not possible. Based on the information provided, it is not possible to explicitly state how the upcoming August 6 earnings report might alter Sweetgreen's full-year profit margin guidance.
6. What evidence from Q2 and Q3 2026 supports the effectiveness of the 'Sweet Growth Transformation Plan' in reversing the Q1 margin decline?
| Q1 2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin | 10.0% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Sweet Growth Transformation Plan Implementation | May 2026 [^] |
| FY 2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin Guidance | 14.2% to 14.7% [^][^][^][^] |
Specific evidence from Q2 and Q3 2026 is not yet available. The provided research does not contain specific outcomes for Q2 or Q3 2026 that demonstrate the effectiveness of the 'Sweet Growth Transformation Plan' in reversing the Q1 margin decline. Sweetgreen reported a Q1 2026 restaurant-level profit margin of 10.0%, which represented a significant year-over-year decrease [^][^][^]. However, the available facts do not include actual reported restaurant-level profit margins for Q2 or Q3 2026.
The 'Sweet Growth Transformation Plan' was initiated in May 2026 [^] . Company leadership has indicated that the plan is not expected to yield results in a single quarter, with management projecting improvements in the second half of 2026 due to easier year-over-year comparisons [^][^]. For the full fiscal year 2026, Sweetgreen has issued guidance for a restaurant-level profit margin ranging from 14.2% to 14.7% [^][^][^][^]. These figures represent management projections and full-year guidance rather than concrete Q2 or Q3 2026 results showing the plan's effectiveness during those periods.
7. How do Sweetgreen's fiscal 2026 restaurant-level margin targets and same-store sales growth compare to those of Shake Shack and Chipotle?
| Sweetgreen F26 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin | 14.2% to 14.7% [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Sweetgreen F26 Same-Store Sales Change | (4.0)% to (2.0)% [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Shake Shack F26 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin | 22.0% to 23.0% [^][^][^] |
Sweetgreen projects modest fiscal 2026 restaurant margins and negative sales growth. For fiscal year 2026, Sweetgreen anticipates a restaurant-level profit margin between 14.2% and 14.7%, alongside a projected same-store sales change ranging from (4.0)% to (2.0)% [^][^][^][^][^]. This outlook reflects a negative forecast for same-store sales.
Sweetgreen's projected restaurant margin is significantly lower than competitors'. Its anticipated restaurant-level profit margin for fiscal 2026 is notably below that of its rivals. Shake Shack has updated its fiscal 2026 guidance to expect a restaurant-level profit margin of 22.0% to 23.0% [^][^][^]. Chipotle reported a Q2 2026 restaurant-level operating margin of 25.2%, though it has not provided a specific full-year 2026 target for this metric [^][^][^].
Sweetgreen's negative sales growth contrasts with positive competitor forecasts. Regarding sales growth, Sweetgreen's forecast for a decrease in same-store sales for fiscal 2026 is contrary to its rivals' positive outlooks. Shake Shack expects positive low single-digit same-shack sales growth for fiscal 2026 [^][^][^], while Chipotle guides for full-year 2026 comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single-digit range [^][^].
8. Which specific food commodity price trends through fiscal 2026 pose the greatest risk to Sweetgreen meeting its cost of goods sold targets?
| Greatest near-term COGS risk | Protein inflation and portion pressure (chicken and tofu) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Restaurant-level profit margin | 10.0% [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Mid-2026 Lettuce price increase | Nearly 20% to 33% year-over-year [^] |
Protein inflation and volatile produce pose significant COGS risks. Sweetgreen faces substantial near-term risks to its cost of goods sold (COGS) targets from protein inflation and portion pressure, particularly for chicken and tofu [^][^][^][^][^][^]. These proteins are central to new menu items, and management has explicitly linked margin pressure to investments in chicken portions, identifying tofu as another margin headwind [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Additionally, volatile produce costs present a significant risk, especially for seasonal and organic sourcing [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Management highlighted ongoing weather-related produce costs as posing transitory risks throughout fiscal year 2026, exacerbated by the company's reliance on organic growers for specialty inputs, which increases exposure to supply shocks [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Q1 margins declined, with lettuce prices a top commodity concern. In Q1 2026, Sweetgreen's restaurant-level profit margin declined to 10.0%, primarily due to higher overall ingredient usage and investments in chicken and tofu portions [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. While specific commodity-by-commodity food inflation guidance for FY2026 was not disclosed, protein inputs, particularly chicken and tofu, are clearly projected as margin risks through the fiscal year [^][^][^][^][^][^]. However, a sharp, sustained increase in lettuce prices has been identified as the single most significant food commodity price risk for fiscal year 2026 [^]. USDA data reported retail price jumps of nearly 20% to 33% for lettuce by mid-2026 compared to the prior year [^].
9. What is the expected net impact of the 'Infinite Kitchen' rollouts and the new wraps platform on Sweetgreen's margins for the remainder of fiscal 2026?
| Infinite Kitchen Margin Advantage | 700-basis-point margin advantage [^][^] |
|---|---|
| FY2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin Guidance | 14.2% to 14.7% [^][^][^] |
| Q1 2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin | 10.0% [^][^] |
Sweetgreen's Infinite Kitchen (IK) rollouts are expected to positively impact margins. Locations with Infinite Kitchen technology consistently show an approximate 700-basis-point margin advantage over traditional stores, driven by labor efficiencies and improved throughput. Sweetgreen plans for nearly half of its 13 net new store openings in 2026 to incorporate this technology [^][^]. For the full fiscal year 2026, Sweetgreen has provided guidance for a restaurant-level profit margin between 14.2% and 14.7% [^][^][^].
The Wraps platform offers strategic benefits, though its immediate margin impact is mitigated. Its nationwide introduction in May 2026 aims to boost guest acquisition and retention through an accessible price point, which management anticipates will increase customer lifetime value and annual spending [^][^]. However, promotional activities and investment costs are expected to temper the immediate net effect of the Wraps platform on overall 2026 margins [^][^]. In Q1 2026, Sweetgreen reported a restaurant-level profit margin of 10.0%, a decrease from 17.9% in the prior-year period [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Sweetgreen's next major milestone is its second-quarter 2026 earnings report, scheduled for release after market close on Thursday, August 6, 2026 [^] . 6 Could Send the Stock Soaring. 3 Reasons Why. | The Motley Fool" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. The company anticipates a restaurant-level profit margin between 14.2% and 14.7% for fiscal year 2026 [^][^][^][^]. In the first quarter of 2026, the restaurant-level profit margin was 10.0%, a decline from 17.9% in the comparable prior-year quarter, attributed to negative same-store sales and increased operating costs [^][^][^].
Bullish catalysts include the nationwide launch of wraps, aimed at driving customer engagement, along with improved foot traffic trends [^] [^] . 6 Could Send the Stock Soaring. 3 Reasons Why. | The Motley Fool" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. The potential for a short squeeze due to high short interest and operational improvements focused on cost discipline also factor as positive drivers [^][^][^].
Bearish factors include intense competition from fast-casual rivals like Cava and Chipotle, continued consumer spending pressures from inflation, and a history of unprofitability in core operations [^] [^] [^] . My Honest Take Isn't as Optimistic. | The Motley Fool" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. Notably, recent net income was largely a result of a one-time asset sale (Spyce), rather than restaurant performance [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 26, 2027
- Closes: May 26, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Sweetgreen's next major milestone is its second-quarter 2026 earnings report, scheduled for release after market close on Thursday, August 6, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: The company anticipates a restaurant-level profit margin between 14.2% and 14.7% for fiscal year 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: In the first quarter of 2026, the restaurant-level profit margin was 10.0%, a decline from 17.9% in the comparable prior-year quarter, attributed to negative same-store sales and increased operating costs [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts include the nationwide launch of wraps, aimed at driving customer engagement, along with improved foot traffic trends [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
