Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in Q3
Short Answer
Sweetgreen's Q3 2026 restaurant-level profit margin will likely exceed 8%, with the market incorporating anticipated Q3 headwinds relative to full-year guidance (60.0%); the model assigns a lower 48.7% probability.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market has seen no trading activity, with zero contracts traded since its inception. The price has remained static at a 1.0% probability and does not reflect any investor reaction to recent company performance or forward-looking catalysts.
Fundamental context, while not priced in by market participants, includes Sweetgreen's Q2 2026 results. The company reported a restaurant-level profit margin of 13.1%, a significant decline from 18.9% in Q2 2025. This was accompanied by a 6.2% decrease in same-store sales and an adjusted EBITDA of negative $0.2 million. The company is scheduled to release its Q3 2026 results on November 5, 2026.
- Since last update (~12h): The model's probability for "Above 9%" surged +47.7pp, leading to edge compression, model-led.
- Edges for "Above 11%" and "Above 12%" flipped, both model-led, reflecting large model increases.
- "Above 10%" saw the model rise +28.2pp, also model-led, compressing the edge.
- Sweetgreen's Q3 2026 margin likely above 8%, despite cyclosporiasis outbreak impact.
- Margin above 9% accounts for anticipated Q3 headwinds relative to full-year guidance.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 17% | 1.0% | 0.5% | Market higher by 0.5pp |
| Above 11% | 5.0% | 16.7% | Model higher by 11.7pp |
| Above 16% | 2.0% | 0.8% | Market higher by 1.2pp |
| Above 10% | 26.0% | 29.1% | Model higher by 3.1pp |
| Above 14% | 2.0% | 2.7% | Model higher by 0.7pp |
Current Context
Sweetgreen has not yet reported Q3 2026 results as of October 24, 2026. The company is scheduled to release its Q3 2026 results after market close on Thursday, November 5, 2026 [1][2]. In Q2 2026, Sweetgreen's restaurant-level profit was $25.2 million, resulting in a 13.1% restaurant-level profit margin, a decrease from 18.9% in Q2 2025 [3][4]. Q2 also saw a 6.2% decline in same-store sales, adjusted EBITDA of negative $0.2 million, and $192.7 million in revenue [3][4]. Management's latest full-year 2026 outlook projects a restaurant-level profit margin of 10.5%-11.0%, same-store sales change of negative 8.0% to negative 7.0%, and adjusted EBITDA of negative $27 million to negative $23 million [3][4]. Analyst consensus estimates Q3 2026 revenue at $169.26 million and EPS at negative $0.2597, compared to prior-year Q3 revenue of $172.39 million and EPS of negative $0.31; these consensus figures do not include restaurant-level margin estimates [2].
Outbreak impacts and market pricing suggest a constrained Q3 margin. Principal risks from Q2 to the current outlook included a multistate cyclosporiasis outbreak, softer consumer demand, higher ingredient usage, investments in chicken and tofu portions, and increased promotional activity [3][4]. The company estimated the outbreak could reduce comparable sales by 200-300 basis points, restaurant-level margin by 100-150 basis points, and EBITDA by $7-$10 million [3][4]. Prediction market pricing indicates a near-certain probability (94%-98%) that Q3 restaurant-level margin will exceed 6% [5][6][7][8]. However, the probability of exceeding 8% is about 69%-70%, exceeding 9% is 55%-60%, exceeding 10% is 35%-36%, and exceeding 11% is only about 5%-9% [5][6][7][8]. The prediction market is set to resolve on March 5, 2027 [5][7].
Q3 restaurant-level margin likely falls in the 8%-10% range. A reasonable pre-release synthesis suggests Q3 restaurant-level profit margin is more likely to land around 8%-10% than near the 10.5%-11.0% full-year guidance midpoint [3][5][4]. This inference is based on Q2's 13.1% margin, management's estimated 100-150 basis-point outbreak impact, and the prediction market assigning only about a one-in-three probability to exceeding 10% [3][5][4]. This represents an inference and is not company guidance [3][5][4]. Key performance indicators to monitor for Q3 include same-store sales and transactions, revenue, restaurant-level profit and margin, food and labor costs, promotional intensity, digital revenue mix, new openings, Infinite Kitchen penetration, and adjusted EBITDA [3][4].
Sources (8)
- 1Sweetgreen to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Results on November 5, 2026 | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
- 2Sweetgreen Q3 2026 Earnings Date & Estimatesmarketbeat.com
- 3Documentsec.gov
- 4Sweetgreen (SG) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlookquartr.com
- 5Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 6Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 9% restaurant-level profit margin in Q3 2026? Odds & Predictions — Predxypredxy.com
- 7Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 8Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in Q3 — restaurant-level profit margin in Q3 2026 - BetCryptobetcrypto.now
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on Sweetgreen's Q3 restaurant-level profit margin. A YES resolution is triggered if the profit margin is above 9%, and a NO resolution occurs if it is 9% or below. Trading for this market ends on November 5, 4:00pm EST, with the maximum payout scheduled for March 5, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 6% | $0.96 | $0.05 | 95% |
| Above 7% | $0.97 | $0.05 | 94% |
| Above 8% | $0.78 | $0.23 | 74% |
| Above 9% | $0.55 | $0.49 | 56% |
| Above 10% | $0.33 | $0.73 | 26% |
| Above 11% | $0.09 | $0.92 | 5% |
| Above 12% | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Above 14% | $0.03 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Above 15% | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Above 16% | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Above 13% | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Above 17% | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
Market Discussion
As of October 24, 2026, prediction market consensus suggests Sweetgreen's Q3 2026 restaurant-level profit margin will be approximately 9%-10%, with a modal threshold near 9% and a result above 10% being materially less likely [1]. This expectation is influenced by reduced FY2026 guidance of 10.5%-11.0% and Q2 2026 margin pressure attributed to higher ingredient usage and promotional activity [2]. Traders reportedly focus on same-store sales, operational efficiency, and the impact of promotions [3].
4. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score73Good
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score56Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score70Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
5. What is the projected financial impact on Sweetgreen's Q3 2026 margin from the cyclosporiasis outbreak and increased promotional activity?
| Q3 2026 Comparable Sales Reduction | 600–700 basis points [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| FY2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin Impact (Cyclospora) | 100–150 basis points [1][3] |
| Updated FY2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin Guidance | 10.5%–11.0% [1][3][4] |
The cyclosporiasis outbreak significantly impacted Sweetgreen's Q3 2026 financial performance. This disruption is estimated to have reduced Q3 2026 comparable sales by 600–700 basis points and is projected to decrease the Q3 2026 restaurant-level profit margin by approximately 100–150 basis points compared to initial plans [1][2][3]. For the full fiscal year 2026, the cyclospora disruption is anticipated to cost 100–150 basis points of restaurant-level profit margin, translating to a $7–$10 million reduction in adjusted EBITDA [1][3].
Sweetgreen lowered its full-year profit margin guidance following the outbreak. The company's updated FY2026 guidance implies a restaurant-level profit margin of 10.5%–11.0%, a notable reduction from the prior outlook of 14%–15%, with 100–150 basis points of this impact directly attributed to the disruption [1][3][4]. While increased promotional activity added an unquantified headwind to the Q3 margin, promotional discounts specifically represented approximately 200 basis points of sales mix in June 2026 [1]. Consequently, a reasonable central estimate for the Q3 2026 restaurant-level margin is around 8%–10%, which is below the full-year guidance due to the concentrated 600–700-basis-point sales shock experienced during that quarter [1][2][3].
6. What evidence supports prediction market pricing of an 8%-10% margin for Sweetgreen in Q3, despite FY2026 guidance of 10.5%-11.0%?
| Prediction Market Q3 2026 Margin | 8%-10% [1] |
|---|---|
| Current FY2026 Margin Guidance | 10.5%-11.0% [1][2][3] |
| Pre-revision FY2026 Margin Guidance | 14.2%-14.7% [4] |
Prediction markets anticipate Sweetgreen's Q3 2026 restaurant-level profit margin will be 8%-10%. Specifically, market data indicates a 69% probability above 8% and a 60% probability above 9%, suggesting a central tendency in the upper single digits to approximately 10% [1]. This market expectation is below the company's own FY2026 restaurant-level profit margin guidance of 10.5%-11.0% [1][2][3]. The divergence is primarily attributed to management's expectation of a significant 600-700 basis-point impact from disruption in Q3, which is projected to be the weakest pressure point for the year [2][3]. It is important to note that the company's 10.5%-11.0% FY2026 guidance is a full-year figure that already incorporates the expected Q3 disruption and an uncertain recovery trajectory [2][3].
Significant revisions and historical trends underline Q3's challenges. Prior to the August 2026 disruption-related revision, Sweetgreen's FY2026 guidance was considerably higher at 14.2%-14.7%, indicating a substantial deterioration [4]. Historically, Q3 has shown sensitivity, with the restaurant-level margin dropping from 20.2% in Q3 2024 to 13.1% in Q3 2025 due to declining same-store sales and rising costs [5][6]. In Q2 2026, the margin was 13.1%, pressured by negative comparable sales, higher ingredient usage, and increased labor costs [2][3]. Despite some mitigating factors, such as improving monthly transaction trends and growth in Infinite Kitchen restaurants, these had not yet overcome the significant Q3 sales shock [2][3]. A later market data snapshot on October 8, 2026, reaffirmed the FY2026 margin guidance at 10.5%-11.0% and projected same-store sales at negative 8% to negative 7%, consistent with the Q2 guidance and the challenging Q3 outlook [7].
Sources (7)
- 1Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2Sweetgreen (SG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
- 3Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG) Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcriptfinance.yahoo.com
- 4Sweetgreen Q1 2026 Earnings Reportmarketbeat.com
- 5Sweetgreen, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial...businesswire.com
- 6Sweetgreen reports steady growth and strategic expansionsinvesting.com
- 7Sweetgreen (SG)trefis.com
7. How do Sweetgreen's 'Infinite Kitchen' locations compare to its legacy restaurants in terms of Q2 2026 labor costs and profit margins?
| Infinite Kitchen Labor Savings | More than 700 basis points compared to classic restaurants [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Consolidated Restaurant-Level Profit Margin | 13.1% ($25.2 million profit) [3][2] |
| Infinite Kitchen Locations (Q2 2026) | 35 out of 287 total locations [2] |
Sweetgreen did not report specific Q2 2026 profit margins for Infinite Kitchens [3][2]. The company did not disclose separate Q2 2026 restaurant-level profit margins for its Infinite Kitchen locations compared to its legacy restaurants [3][2]. However, established Infinite Kitchen locations achieved over 700 basis points in labor savings compared to classic restaurants of similar age, alongside higher Average Unit Volumes (AUVs) [1][2]. This labor saving represents a relative advantage rather than a specific Q2 2026 segment profit and loss disclosure [1][2].
Consolidated Q2 2026 profit margins declined despite Infinite Kitchens' benefits [3][2]. Sweetgreen reported a consolidated Q2 2026 restaurant-level profit margin of 13.1% and a profit of $25.2 million, a decline from the 18.9% margin and $35.1 million profit in Q2 2025 [3][2]. Consolidated labor and related expenses for the quarter reached $56.313 million, representing 29.2% of revenue, an increase from 27.5% in Q2 2025 due to sales deleverage and wage inflation [3]. By the end of Q2 2026, Sweetgreen operated 35 Infinite Kitchen restaurants among its 287 total locations [2]. Although Infinite Kitchens possess structurally superior labor economics, their benefits were overshadowed by broader systemic challenges in Q2 2026 [3][2]. The overall consolidated margin was negatively impacted by systemwide sales deleverage, investments in ingredient usage and portions, and promotions [3][2].
8. How does Sweetgreen define and calculate 'restaurant-level profit margin' in its Q2 2026 SEC filings versus other industry KPIs?
| Q2 FY2026 Restaurant-Level Profit Margin | 13.1% [1] |
|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 Restaurant-Level Profit | $25.177 million [1] |
| FY2026 Full-Year Restaurant-Level Profit Margin Outlook | 10.5%-11.0% [1] |
Sweetgreen defines Restaurant-Level Profit Margin as a key non-GAAP metric. This metric is calculated by dividing Restaurant-Level Profit by total revenue, and it is designed to assess restaurant profitability by excluding expenses primarily attributed to its corporate Support Center, including general and administrative, depreciation and amortization, and pre-opening costs [1]. For Q2 FY2026, Sweetgreen reported a Restaurant-Level Profit Margin of 13.1%, which contrasts significantly with its Q2 FY2026 GAAP loss-from-operations margin of (14.2%) and net-loss margin of (13.6%) [1].
The Q2 FY2026 margin resulted from specific financial figures. During this period, the company achieved a Restaurant-Level Profit of $25.177 million from $192.7 million in total revenue [1]. Sweetgreen's Q2 filing updated its FY2026 full-year outlook for Restaurant-Level Profit Margin, projecting it to be between 10.5% and 11.0% [1]. However, the available information does not contain a direct Q3 FY2026 margin forecast from Sweetgreen [1]. The company explicitly cautions that Restaurant-Level Profit is not indicative of overall company results and may not be comparable to similar metrics reported by other companies [1].
Sources (1)
9. What do leading indicators for consumer spending, such as Placer.ai and credit card data, suggest for Sweetgreen's Q3 2026 same-store sales?
| Q2 2026 Comparable Restaurant Sales | -6.2% [1] |
|---|---|
| Estimated Q3 Comparable Sales Range | -2% to -4% [1] |
| Sweetgreen Visits June 2026 YoY | 3.9% [1] |
Sweetgreen's Q3 2026 same-store sales project sequential improvement. Sweetgreen's Q3 2026 comparable sales are anticipated to improve significantly from the Q2 decline of -6.2%, though projections suggest they will remain negative year over year [1]. A base-case estimate for Q3 comparable sales ranges from -2% to -4%. Upside towards flat sales is possible if the May–June traffic improvements continued, while downside could occur if the impact of a recent health event lingered, consistent with management's guidance of a 600–700 basis-point disruption [1].
Traffic indicators suggest sequential improvement for Sweetgreen entering Q3. Leading indicators point to a meaningful sequential traffic inflection, with Sweetgreen visits rising 1.0% year over year in May 2026 and 3.9% in June 2026 [1]. This coincided with the nationwide launch of wraps on May 6. Management noted that Q2 2026 comparable transaction trends improved sequentially each month, achieving flat transaction comparable sales by June, despite overall Q2 comparable restaurant sales being down 6.2% [1]. However, this traffic improvement does not necessarily indicate a full recovery in dollar sales [1].
Broader consumer challenges temper confidence in Sweetgreen's outlook. The overall consumer environment remains difficult for fast-casual traffic, with reports indicating Sweetgreen visits lag the sector average [2]. Placer.ai commentary highlighted a pullback among lower-income consumers and ongoing concerns regarding value at the $15–$20 entree price points [3]. Confidence in the Q3 same-store sales estimate is medium-low, primarily because public, source-backed Q3 credit-card-spend figures are not yet available [1][3]. As of October 24, 2026, Q3 results were not yet released, with their publication expected around November 5, 2026 [4][1].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Sweetgreen had not reported Q3 2026 results as of October 24, 2026, with the earnings release scheduled for after market close on Thursday, November 5, 2026 [1]. Prediction markets imply approximately 69% probability for a Q3 2026 restaurant-level profit margin above 8%, 60% above 9%, and 36% above 10% [2][3]. The company's updated FY2026 outlook provides a relevant anchor, calling for a restaurant-level profit margin of 10.5% to 11.0%, and adjusted EBITDA of negative $27 million to negative $23 million [4]. A pre-release point estimate for Q3 restaurant-level profit margin is approximately 9% to 10%, with 9% as the central estimate [5]. Q2 2026 saw restaurant-level profit margin at 13.1%, down from 18.9% in Q2 2025, pressured by negative same-store sales, higher ingredient usage, and increased promotional activity [4]. Key KPIs for the November 5 report include restaurant-level profit margin, revenue, same-store sales, and any changes to FY2026 guidance [4].
Potential bullish catalysts center on evidence of temporary cyclospora impact, reflected in improving transactions and October sales [5]. Successful menu innovation, such as new wraps or the Molly Baz collaboration, could also drive performance [5]. The deployment of Infinite Kitchens has the potential to yield labor and throughput benefits [5]. The most significant bullish confirmation would be management commentary indicating traffic recovery and maintenance or increase of FY2026 guidance [5][4].
Bearish catalysts include the full-quarter exposure to cyclospora disruption in Q3, continued negative same-store sales, and ongoing promotional or ingredient-cost pressure [5][4]. A Q3 margin below 8% to 9% or a cut to FY2026 same-store-sales or adjusted-EBITDA guidance would represent significant downside [5][4]. Competitive pressure from Cava and Chipotle, alongside broader consumer spending weakness, also adds to downside risk [5].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 05, 2027
- Closes: March 05, 2027
Sources (5)
- 1Sweetgreen to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Results on November 5, 2026 | Nasdaqnasdaq.com
- 2Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in Q3 Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 3Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 9% restaurant-level profit margin in Q3 2026? Odds & Predictions — Predxypredxy.com
- 4Documentsec.gov
- 5SG stock analysis — Sweetgreen — FrontierPicksfrontierpicks.com
