Chipotle total restaurant count in Q3
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Chipotle's total restaurant count in Q3 2026 to be Above 4250, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's price action is defined by a single, sharp upward spike immediately after its launch. The contract opened at 0.0% on July 30 before jumping to 92.0% on the same day. This move was a direct reaction to Chipotle's Q2 2026 financial results. The report, issued just prior to the market's opening, disclosed a total of 4,201 restaurants as of June 30. This figure left the company just 49 net new locations short of the 4,250 unit count required for the contract to resolve to YES. The immediate pricing to over 90% indicates traders believe the company's Q3 opening pace will easily clear this threshold, likely based on management's outlook and raised full-year guidance.
Total trading volume is low at 33 contracts, suggesting the market's price was set by a small number of participants with high conviction rather than broad activity. The initial spike to 92.0% occurred on a single contract trade. Since that peak, the price has settled slightly, establishing a narrow trading range with nascent support around 90.0% and resistance at the 92.0% high. Overall, the chart reflects a strong and stable market sentiment that Chipotle reaching at least 4,250 restaurants by the end of Q3 2026 is a near certainty.
- Chipotle's projected Q3 count of 4,293 comfortably exceeds thresholds 4250, 4260, 4270.
- The projected count is likely above 4290, consistent with annual expansion guidance.
- Q3 restaurant count is unlikely to reach 4320, as projected count falls below.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4290 | 20.0% | 24.0% | Model higher by 4.0pp |
| Above 4280 | 24.0% | 25.9% | Model higher by 1.9pp |
| Above 4320 | 5.0% | 2.0% | Market higher by 3.0pp |
| Above 4270 | 66.0% | 59.8% | Market higher by 6.2pp |
| Above 4260 | 80.0% | 83.8% | Model higher by 3.8pp |
Current Context
Chipotle reported 4,201 total restaurants as of June 30, 2026 [1][2][3]. This count comprised 4,186 company-owned locations and 15 partner-operated units [1][2][3]. Chipotle's financial results for Q3 2026 are not yet available, given the date of July 31, 2026, and the typical reporting schedule for quarterly earnings in late October [4].
The company maintains guidance for 350 to 370 new restaurant openings in 2026 [5][2][4]. Over 80% of these new locations are expected to feature a 'Chipotlane' drive-thru format [5][2][4]. For Q3 2026, Chipotle anticipates comparable sales growth of approximately 1% and intends to increase pricing into the mid-2% range [4].
Sources (5)
- 1Chipotle Mexican Grill Releases Q2 2026 Financial Results - Alphastreetnews.alphastreet.com
- 2Chipotle Q2 Revenue $3.3B, Raises 2026 Guidance | CMG Stock Newsstocktitan.net
- 3CHIPOTLE RAISES FULL YEAR COMPARABLE SALES GUIDANCE ON STRONG Q2 MOMENTUM - Jul 29, 2026ir.chipotle.com
- 4Earnings call transcript: Chipotle beats Q2 2026 estimates...investing.com
- 5CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2025 RESULTSir.chipotle.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 July 30, 2026: 82.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 82.0%
Outcome: Above 4260
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market spike was the release of Chipotle's strong Q2 2026 earnings report on July 29, 2026, which led to a significant positive market response on July 30, 2026 [1][2][3]. This traditional news event announced higher-than-expected revenue and a raise in full-year comparable sales guidance, indicating robust company performance and strong growth prospects [1][2]. Although Chipotle reported 4,201 restaurants as of June 30, 2026 [4][5], this overwhelmingly positive outlook likely increased market confidence in the company's ability to exceed 4260 total restaurants in Q3. Social media was not identified as a primary driver.
Sources (5)
- 1CMG Stock Jumps Overnight: Honey Chicken, Chipotlanes And AI Fuel Fresh Growth Hopesfinance.yahoo.com
- 2Chipotle Q2 2026 earnings beat, raises full-year sales forecastqz.com
- 3Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Q2 2026 earnings - LA Times Nowlatimesnow.com
- 4CHIPOTLE RAISES FULL YEAR COMPARABLE SALES GUIDANCE ON STRONG Q2 MOMENTUM - Jul 29, 2026ir.chipotle.com
- 5CHIPOTLE RAISES FULL YEAR COMPARABLE SALES GUIDANCE ON STRONG Q2 MOMENTUM - Jul 29, 2026newsroom.chipotle.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For each specific contract within this market, a "YES" resolution is triggered if Chipotle's total restaurant count in Q3 is above the stated threshold (e.g., above 4270 for the "Above 4270" contract). Conversely, a "NO" resolution occurs if the total restaurant count is at or below that threshold. Trading for this market closes on October 28, 4:00 pm EDT. No special settlement conditions beyond the numerical count are explicitly detailed on this page.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4250 | $0.96 | $0.09 | 92% |
| Above 4260 | $0.90 | $0.18 | 80% |
| Above 4270 | $0.50 | $0.59 | 66% |
| Above 4280 | $0.25 | $0.82 | 24% |
| Above 4290 | $0.14 | $0.94 | 20% |
| Above 4300 | $0.09 | $0.98 | 13% |
| Above 4310 | $0.08 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Above 4320 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
Market Discussion
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score70Good
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score34High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score63Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. What is the consensus among financial analysts for Chipotle's net new restaurant openings specifically for Q3 2026?
| Full-year 2026 New Restaurant Openings Guidance | 350 to 370 (includes 10 to 15 international partner-operated locations) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Total Restaurants as of June 30, 2026 | 4,201 (4,186 company-owned, 15 partner-operated) [1][2] |
| Q3 2026 Net New Restaurant Openings Market Consensus | No singular market consensus value found [3] |
Analysts do not provide specific consensus for Q3 2026 net new restaurant openings. The available research does not indicate a singular market consensus value specifically for Chipotle's Q3 2026 net new restaurant openings [3]. Chipotle management, however, maintains a full-year 2026 guidance of 350 to 370 new restaurant openings [3]. This comprehensive guidance for 2026 includes 10 to 15 international partner-operated locations [1][2][3].
Chipotle pursues a disciplined expansion strategy, opening about one restaurant daily. The company remains committed to this strategy, aiming for approximately one new restaurant per day, which analysts incorporate into their broader 2026 financial models [3]. As of June 30, 2026, Chipotle operated a total of 4,201 locations. This total consisted of 4,186 company-owned restaurants and 15 partner-operated restaurants [1][2].
7. What macroeconomic trends, such as construction costs or labor availability, could impact Chipotle's ability to meet its opening targets in the second half of 2026?
| Q2 2026 new openings | 100 new company-owned locations (Q2 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Total restaurants (July 2026) | Over 4,200 (as of July 29, 2026) [1][2][3] |
| Full-year 2026 openings guidance | 350 to 370 new restaurant openings (full-year 2026) [1][2][3] |
Macroeconomic headwinds pose potential risks to restaurant expansion goals. Significant increases in ground-up construction costs, with some new-build quick service restaurant sites exceeding $2.6 million, could challenge Chipotle's ability to meet its opening targets in the second half of 2026 [4][5][6]. Furthermore, persistent labor shortages, intensified by tighter immigration enforcement and structural wage inflation across major markets, present another substantial impediment to restaurant growth [4][5][6].
Chipotle's Q2 2026 results show resilience despite challenges. The company's performance in Q2 2026 surpassed general market expectations, indicating its capacity to manage current construction and labor issues [1][7][8]. As of July 29, 2026, Chipotle operated over 4,200 total restaurants, having opened 100 new company-owned locations during Q2 2026 [1][2][3]. The company remains confident in its expansion strategy, maintaining its full-year 2026 guidance of 350 to 370 new restaurant openings despite the prevailing economic environment [1][2][3].
Sources (8)
- 1CHIPOTLE RAISES FULL YEAR COMPARABLE SALES GUIDANCE ON STRONG Q2 MOMENTUM - Jul 29, 2026ir.chipotle.com
- 2Chipotle Q2 2026 earnings beat, raises full-year sales forecastqz.com
- 3Chipotle Q2 Revenue $3.3B, Raises 2026 Guidance | CMG Stock Newsstocktitan.net
- 4Restaurant Industry H1 2026 Outlook: No Catalysts for Turnaround | QSR Proqsr.pro
- 5Press Releases | National Restaurant Associationrestaurant.org
- 6The Restaurant Labor Cliff: QSR Workforce Shortage Intensifies in 2026 | QSR Proqsr.pro
- 7Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4160 total… — 97% · Kalshi | SimpleFunctionssimplefunctions.dev
- 8Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Report Above 4160 Total Restaurant Count In Q2 2026? - The Liberty Portfoliothelibertyportfolio.com
8. How does Chipotle's projected new store growth rate for 2026 compare to key fast-casual competitors like CAVA and Sweetgreen?
| Chipotle 2026 Growth Rate | 8.56% to 9.04% (March 31, 2026 restaurant base) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| Chipotle 2026 New Openings | 350 to 370 restaurants [7][8][9][10] |
| CAVA 2026 New Openings | 75 to 77 net new restaurants [11][12][13] |
Chipotle anticipates steady new restaurant growth in 2026. The company is projected to achieve an implied new store growth rate of 8.56% to 9.04% for 2026, based on its anticipated 4,090 total restaurants by March 31, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Chipotle plans to open 350 to 370 new locations during 2026, which includes 10 to 15 international partner-operated sites [7][8][9][10]. This expansion pace is consistent with the 334 company-owned restaurants opened in 2025 [7][8][9][10].
Competitors CAVA and Sweetgreen show varied expansion strategies. In comparison, CAVA projects 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings for 2026, a growth rate generally faster than Chipotle's when considering its existing base [11][12][13]. Sweetgreen, however, plans a significant slowdown in its expansion, projecting only 15 new restaurant openings for 2026, a sharp decrease from the 35 net new units opened in 2025 [14]. A direct, like-for-like comparison of specific new store growth rates for CAVA and Sweetgreen to Chipotle is not fully supported by the available information, as their comparable Q3 2026 total restaurant counts or precise 2026 new-store growth rate projections are currently unavailable [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (14)
- 1www.fool.comOctagon Agentfool.com
- 2www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 3www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 4www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 5www.zacks.comOctagon Agentzacks.com
- 6www.proactiveinvestors.comOctagon Agentproactiveinvestors.com
- 7Can Unit Expansion Support Chipotle's Systemwide Sales in 2026?ainvest.com
- 8Chipotle Scales Unit Growth: What's the Cannibalization Impact?finviz.com
- 9Chipotle Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Comps Risefinance.yahoo.com
- 10Chipotle (CMG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 11Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Group Reports First Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 12Cava To Open 75 New Stores, Hire 2,500 Workersbisnow.com
- 13Cava wins Q1 with 9.7% same-store sales jumprestaurantdive.com
- 14Sweetgreen wanted to reach 1000 units by the end of the...restaurantbusinessonline.com
9. When will Chipotle release its Q3 2026 financial results, and which specific documents will contain the official total restaurant count?
| Q3 2026 Earnings Release Date | Not yet officially announced as of July 31, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Total Restaurants | 4,186 as of June 30, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] |
| Q3 2026 Restaurant Count Source | Expected in earnings press release, supplemental data, and Form 10-Q [8][1][2][3][4][5][6][7] |
Chipotle has not yet announced its Q3 2026 financial results release date. As of July 31, 2026, Chipotle has not officially announced when its Q3 2026 financial results will be released [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. A review of investor-relations announcements published within the last six months did not reveal any Q3 2026 earnings date [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. The latest official earnings notice pertained to Q2 2026, which stated that results would be released on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, at approximately 4:10 p.m. ET [1][2][3][4][5][6][7].
Official restaurant counts are provided in quarterly earnings documents and SEC filings. The official total restaurant count for Q3 2026 is expected to be disclosed in the company's quarterly earnings press release, supplemental financial and other data, and subsequent Form 10-Q filings with the SEC [8][1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. This official total restaurant count data is consistently provided in these investor-relations materials. For example, the Q2 2026 release included a table titled “CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC. SUPPLEMENTAL FINANCIAL AND OTHER DATA” which listed a total of 4,186 restaurants as of June 30, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7].
Sources (8)
- 1CHIPOTLE RAISES FULL YEAR COMPARABLE SALES GUIDANCE ON STRONG Q2 MOMENTUM - Jul 29, 2026ir.chipotle.com
- 2www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 3www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 4www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 5www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 6www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 7www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
- 8https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000028/R7.htmsec.gov
10. How accurate has Chipotle's annual restaurant opening guidance been when compared to its actual results from 2023 to 2025?
| 2023 Actual Restaurant Openings | 271 restaurants [1][2] |
|---|---|
| 2024 Actual Restaurant Openings | 304 restaurants [1][3][2] |
| Total Restaurants End of Q3 2025 | 3,916 company-owned restaurants [4] |
Chipotle's restaurant opening guidance was accurate for 2023 and 2024. For both 2023 and 2024, Chipotle's actual new restaurant openings consistently fell within its projected ranges. In 2023, the company opened 271 restaurants, which was within its guidance of 255 to 285 openings [1][2]. Following this trend, Chipotle opened a record 304 new restaurants in 2024, aligning with its projection of 285 to 315 openings for that year [1][3][2].
Information is insufficient to assess Chipotle's 2025 opening guidance accuracy. However, current research does not provide enough data to determine the accuracy of Chipotle's annual restaurant opening guidance for 2025. While the company reported 3,916 company-owned restaurants at the end of the third quarter of 2025 [4], the available information lacks both Chipotle's specific annual guidance for 2025 restaurant openings and the total actual openings for the full year 2025.
Sources (4)
- 1Chipotle delivers strong Q4; to open 285 to 315 new locations in 2024chainstoreage.com
- 2Chipotle sets a record with 304 new restaurants in 2024 - Fast Companyfastcompany.com
- 3Chipotle on track to open record number of stores during...costar.com
- 4CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2025 RESULTS - Oct 29, 2025ir.chipotle.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Chipotle reported its Q2 2026 financial results on July 29, 2026, and raised its full-year comparable sales guidance to low single-digit growth [1][2][3]. The company has a streak of earnings beats, strong cash flow ($1.09 billion trailing free cash flow), and successful menu price increases to offset inflation [4][5]. As of late July 2026, Chipotle has more than 4,200 total restaurants [5][2].
A major bearish catalyst identified in July 2026 is a U.S. cyclospora outbreak [4][2]. Public concern reduced late-July 2026 sales by approximately 2 percentage points, despite Chipotle stating its supply chain is unaffected [4][2]. This outbreak also contributes to broader restaurant industry traffic declines affecting chains like Chipotle [6]. Bearish risks also involve margin pressure from rising food and labor costs, and the potential for food-safety headlines to impact Q3 performance [4][5].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 19, 2027
- Closes: February 19, 2027
Sources (6)
- 1CHIPOTLE RAISES FULL YEAR COMPARABLE SALES GUIDANCE ON STRONG Q2 MOMENTUM - Jul 29, 2026ir.chipotle.com
- 2Chipotle Q2 2026 earnings beat, raises full-year sales forecastqz.com
- 3CHIPOTLE RAISES FULL YEAR COMPARABLE SALES GUIDANCE ON STRONG Q2 MOMENTUM - Jul 29, 2026newsroom.chipotle.com
- 4Chipotle Raises Forecast After Q2 Beat; Outbreak Loomsbasisreport.com
- 5Chipotle Raises Full-Year Guidance After 9.3% Revenue Jump. Is the Turnaround Finally Here? | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 6US-Iran Strikes Extend to 10th Day; Trump Vows 50% Tariff on Canadian Goods | Bloomberg...youtube.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 18 markets in this series
Outcomes: 12 resolved YES, 6 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXCMG-26JULCOMP-N1.0: YES (Jul 29, 2026)
- KXCMG-26JULCOMP-0: YES (Jul 29, 2026)
- KXCMG-26JULREST-4170: YES (Jul 29, 2026)
- KXCMG-26JULREST-4150: YES (Jul 29, 2026)
- KXCMG-26JULREST-4130: YES (Jul 29, 2026)
