Short Answer

The market considers it unlikely that Costco total cardholders will exceed 151 million in fiscal 2027. Recent fiscal 2026 results and analytical estimates project significantly higher figures for fiscal 2027, with the model at 12% against the market's 0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Above 151 million cardholders is likely, driven by 33 planned fiscal 2027 warehouse openings.
  • Executive membership growth is expected to modestly improve renewal rates, supporting higher cardholder counts.
  • Fiscal 2026 cardholder growth of 3.6% appears to support continued increases in 2027.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 151 million 0.0% 12.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 152 million 0.0% 12.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 153 million 0.0% 12.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 154 million 0.0% 12.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 155 million 0.0% 12.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.

Current Context

Costco closed fiscal 2026 with 150.4 million total cardholders, projecting normalized growth. Total cardholders rose 3.6% year over year from 145.2 million, comprising 84.1 million paid members and 66.3 million household cards [1][2]. Key membership KPIs entering fiscal 2027 include 42.3 million Executive members, up 9.4% year over year, with U.S./Canada renewal at 92.3% and worldwide renewal at 89.8% [1][3][4]. Executive members contribute approximately 75.2% of worldwide sales [5]. While renewal rates improved slightly, paid-member growth slowed [4][5]. Management's fiscal 2027 outlook emphasizes continued sales and market-share growth, targeting roughly 30 net new warehouses annually, including 33 planned openings (five relocations) [6][4][7]. Management described recent membership growth as normalized, without providing a specific fiscal 2027 cardholder target [4][7]. Zacks consensus estimates project fiscal 2027 revenue of $328.53 billion, up 8.4% from fiscal 2026, and EPS of $22.70, up 11%; these are not company guidance [2][8].
Analytical projections forecast 156.0–157.0 million cardholders; markets show limited conviction. A base-case estimate for fiscal 2027 year-end total cardholders is approximately 156.0–157.0 million, derived from applying 3.8%–4.4% growth to the 150.4 million fiscal 2026 base [1][4][7]. This is an analytical projection, not Costco guidance or published analyst consensus [7]. The annual fiscal 2027 cardholder prediction market, settling around September 23, 2027, shows less than 1% probability for thresholds above 151, 152, and 153 million, and its search snippet does not expose a reliable central estimate [9][10]. For the Q1 fiscal 2027 cardholder market, a median around 151.52 million cardholders was cited [11][10]. The market priced 87% probability above 151.0 million, 75% above 151.2 million, 43% above 151.6 million, and 22% above 151.8 million [11][10]. This Q1 contract, with a cited threshold above 150.6 million, settles April 9, 2027 [11][10]. Expert commentary is broadly constructive but mixed [7][5][12]. Analysts highlight improving renewal rates, record Executive penetration, younger-member acquisition, digital growth, and value proposition [7][5]. Concerns include decelerating paid-member growth and the stock's premium valuation requiring follow-through [7][12]. Cited views include CNBC's hold-equivalent rating and Evercore ISI's maintained Buy/$1,100 target [7][5].
Upside and downside risks surround fiscal 2027 cardholder projections. Upside risks to the base case include higher renewal rates from expanding Executive penetration and potentially outsized membership gains from Asian warehouse openings [1][4][7]. Downside risks include normalized or slower membership growth, weaker renewal behavior among digitally acquired members, and mature-market saturation [1][4][7]. Key dates are September 24, 2026, for fiscal 2026 results and the fiscal 2027 outlook [1][2][6]; December 10, 2026, for the Q1 cardholder market close [11][10]; April 9, 2027, for Q1 market settlement [11][10]; and approximately September 23, 2027, for the annual fiscal 2027 cardholder market settlement [9][11][10].
Sources (12)
  1. 1COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW Form 10-K for the period ended August 30, 2026sec.gov
  2. 2Costco Wholesale Corporation - Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Operating Resultsinvestor.costco.com
  3. 3costex9928-k92426sec.gov
  4. 4Costco Q4 Earnings Call Highlights Expansion and Digital Growthfinance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Costco makes progress on a key membership metric. Here's our new price target on the stockcnbc.com
  6. 6COST Q4 FY2026 earnings call - BigGo Financefinance.biggo.com
  7. 7Costco Wholesale (COST) Q4 FY26 Earnings Recap: Hold — Aardvark Labsresearch.aardvarklabs.co
  8. 8Is COST a Buy as Strong Growth Meets a Premium Earnings Valuation?finance.yahoo.com
  9. 9Costco total cardholders in fiscal 2027 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  10. 10Costco total cardholders in Q1 (total cardholders in Q1 2027): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  11. 11Costco total cardholders in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  12. 12Costco Stock (COST): Here’s Why Wall Street Remains Split After the Retail Giant’s Q4 Earningstipranks.com

2. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if Costco's total cardholders in fiscal year 2027 are above 151 million. If the total is 151 million or less, the market resolves to NO. Trading begins on September 23 at 4:00 PM EDT, with the maximum payout date set for December 21, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 151 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 152 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 153 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 154 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 155 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 156 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 157 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 158 million $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 159 million $0.00 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

Costco exited fiscal 2026 with 150.4 million total cardholders, leading to a base-case estimate of approximately 155–156 million for fiscal 2027 by applying roughly 3.6% annual growth [1][2][3]. The primary debate involves balancing decelerating membership growth against improving renewal quality and executive-member penetration [3][4]. While the fiscal 2027 annual prediction market currently shows low probabilities for thresholds above 151M, 152M, and 153M, related Q1 FY2027 market pricing implied a median of approximately 151.52 million total cardholders [5][6][1][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Costco total cardholders in Q1 (total cardholders in Q1 2027): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  2. 2Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) (Q4 2026) Earnings Call...finance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Costco makes progress on a key membership metric....cnbc.com
  4. 4Costco Q4 Earnings Call Highlights Expansion and Digital Growthfinance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Costco total cardholders in fiscal 2027 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  6. 6Costco total cardholders in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  7. 7Prediction Markets - Costco total cardholders in Q1coinbase.com

3. What is the consensus among Wall Street analysts for Costco's total cardholders at the end of fiscal 2027?

FY2026 Total Cardholders150.4 million [1][2][3]
Estimated FY2027 Total Cardholders156-158 million [4][1][2][3]
Annual Growth Rate Used for EstimateRoughly 4% [4][1][2][3]
Wall Street lacks a clearly published analyst consensus specifically for Costco's total cardholder count at fiscal-year-end 2027; mainstream estimate pages focus on financial metrics, with key performance indicators generally reported historically [4][1][2]. Costco last reported 150.4 million total cardholders at the end of fiscal 2026, following 148.5 million for Q3 FY2026 [1][2][3]. The year-over-year growth rate was approximately 4.0% in the latest SEC supplemental data, though paid membership growth had slowed to 3.8% by FY2026 Q4 [1][2][3][5].
An analyst-style projection estimates 156–158 million cardholders by FY2027. This extrapolation begins from the 150.4 million fiscal 2026 base, applying the latest roughly 4% annual growth rate and allowing for normalization, suggesting a midpoint of approximately 157 million cardholders by the end of fiscal 2027 [4][1][2][3]. This projection is further supported by Costco's plans for approximately 28 new warehouse openings in fiscal 2027, which typically contributes to continued membership growth [1][5].
Estimates for cardholders can significantly differ from Costco's reported results. While total cardholders are sometimes included in quarterly KPI consensus, these estimates can vary materially from actual reported figures [2][6]. For example, the average of two analyst estimates for Q3 FY2026 was 151.084 million cardholders, compared to Costco's officially reported 148.5 million [2][6]. Additionally, the Kalshi fiscal-2027 market displays thresholds for cardholders, but this should not be interpreted as a direct Wall Street consensus [4][1][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Costco makes progress on a key membership metric. Here's our new price target on the stockcnbc.com
  2. 2costex9928-k52826sec.gov
  3. 3Costco Membership Income Jumps Double Digits: What Is Driving Growth? — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  4. 4Costco total cardholders in fiscal 2027 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  5. 5https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/gb:0i47/earningstipranks.com
  6. 6Compared to Estimates, Costco (COST) Q3 Earnings: A Look at Key Metricsfinance.yahoo.com
  7. 7Costco earnings odds: Here's what Kalshi traders are forecasting for Thursday's Q3 callnews.kalshi.com

4. How might the 33 planned warehouse openings in fiscal 2027 impact Costco's cardholder growth rate compared to its historical average?

Total Cardholders (Fiscal 2026)150.4 million [1][2]
Cardholder Growth Rate (Fiscal 2026)3.6% [1][2]
Planned Warehouse Openings (Fiscal 2027)33 [1][2]
Costco's recent cardholder growth has fallen below historical averages. At the close of fiscal 2026, Costco reported 150.4 million total cardholders, marking a 3.6% year-over-year increase [1][2]. This growth rate is noticeably lower than the approximate 6.7% historical average observed across fiscal years 2023 to 2025 [3][4].
New warehouses in 2027 are expected to stimulate membership growth. For fiscal 2027, Costco plans to open 33 warehouses, which includes five relocations, resulting in approximately 28 net-new buildings [1][2]. While these new locations are anticipated to boost cardholder acquisition and potentially slow the recent deceleration, the growth rate is projected to remain below the historical 6%-7% average [1][2]. This forecast is partly due to the mix of new-market warehouses, which attract more new members, and mature-market infill locations, which typically generate fewer sign-ups [1][5]. An extrapolation suggests fiscal 2027 could see cardholders reaching about 155.8 million, indicating a growth rate improved from the latest but still beneath historical norms [1][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Costco (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW Form 10-K for the period ended August 30, 2026sec.gov
  3. 3cost-20240901sec.gov
  4. 4cost-20250831sec.gov
  5. 5Costco Ends Its Fiscal Year on a High Note, Eyes Big Expansionalphasignals.com

5. How did Costco's membership growth rate in fiscal 2026 compare to its primary competitors, Sam's Club and BJ's Wholesale Club?

Costco Total Cardholder Growth3.6% (fiscal 2026 year over year) [1][2][3]
Costco Paid Memberships Growth3.8% (fiscal 2026 year over year) [1][2][3]
Sam's Club U.S. Membership Income Growth8.7% (fiscal 2026 year over year) [4][5][6][7]
Costco reported steady membership growth during fiscal year 2026. The company concluded the period with 150.4 million total cardholders, reflecting a 3.6% year-over-year growth rate [1][2][3]. Paid memberships also increased, rising by 3.8% to 84.1 million during the same fiscal year [1][2][3].
Comparable full-year membership-count growth for competitors was not available. Directly comparable full-year membership-count growth rates for Sam's Club U.S. and BJ's Wholesale Club for fiscal 2026 were not disclosed [4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Sam's Club U.S. reported an 8.7% increase in membership-and-other income for fiscal 2026, reaching $2.525 billion [4][5][6][7]. BJ's Wholesale Club's membership fee income grew by 9.9% year-over-year in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, and the company reported a record 8.5 million members during that quarter [8][9][10].
Direct comparisons are challenging, but trends suggest differing growth rates. Due to differing disclosure practices, direct comparisons between Costco, Sam's Club, and BJ's Wholesale Club are difficult. Costco provided specific cardholder and paid-member counts, whereas Sam's Club reported only fee-income growth, and BJ's offered a midyear member count alongside fee-income growth [1][2][8][9]. Based on the available evidence, Costco's fiscal 2026 membership-count growth appears slower than the fee-income growth reported by both Sam's Club and BJ's [1][2][8][9].
Sources (10)
  1. 1COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW Form 10-K for the period ended August 30, 2026sec.gov
  2. 2costex9928-k92426sec.gov
  3. 3Costco Wholesale Corporation - Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Operating Resultsinvestor.costco.com
  4. 4wmt-20260131sec.gov
  5. 5Walmart, Inc.stock.walmart.com
  6. 6https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000055/R34.htmsec.gov
  7. 7Walmart-owned Sam's Club raises its annual membership fee to $60cnbc.com
  8. 8BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results – BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.investors.bjs.com
  9. 9Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) 10-Q Quarterly Report August 2026last10k.com
  10. 10BJ's Wholesale Club Investor Presentations22.q4cdn.com

6. What is Costco's reporting schedule for membership data in fiscal 2027, and which quarterly reports will provide the most direct updates?

Q1 FY2027 Reporting DateDecember 10, 2026 (confirmed) [1][2]
Estimated Q2 FY2027 Reporting Datearound March 4, 2027 [2][3][4]
Source for Total Cardholder DataQuarterly earnings releases and supplemental information presentations [5][6][7]
Costco's fiscal 2027 reporting schedule begins December 10, 2026, for Q1. The Q1 FY2027 earnings release is officially confirmed for December 10, 2026, after market close [1][2]. Subsequent quarterly earnings releases are currently estimated: Q2 around March 4, 2027, Q3 around May 27, 2027, and Q4 approximately between September 23-30, 2027 [2][3][4]. Only the Q1 date is confirmed, with all other dates remaining estimates [2][3][4].
Membership data is available in quarterly earnings and supplemental reports. Updates on total cardholders will be directly accessible through Costco's quarterly earnings releases and their accompanying supplemental information presentations [5][6][7]. For the fiscal-year-end total cardholders figure for 2027, the Q4 FY2027 earnings release or the full-year report will serve as the most direct source [8][9]. The official publication date for Q4 FY2027 has not yet been confirmed [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Costco Wholesale Corporation - Q1 2027 Earnings Resultsinvestor.costco.com
  2. 2Costco Earnings Date, Report, Conference Call, Forecasted Dates (COST)wallstreethorizon.com
  3. 3COSTCO WHOLESALE AKTIE AKTIE Termine | Quartalszahlen | Zwischenbericht | 888351finanzen.net
  4. 4Costco Wholesale Stock Price | Stock Quote, News, and History | Markets Insidermarkets.businessinsider.com
  5. 5costex9928-k3526sec.gov
  6. 6costex9928-k121125sec.gov
  7. 7costex9928-k52826sec.gov
  8. 8EDGAR Filing Documents for 0000909832-25-000101sec.gov
  9. 9Costco Wholesale Corporation - Financials - Annual Reports and Proxy Statementsinvestor.costco.com

7. What effect will the continued rise in Executive memberships have on Costco's overall worldwide renewal rate in fiscal 2027?

FY2026 Worldwide Renewal Rate89.8% [1]
Executive Members Q4 FY202642.3 million [2]
FY2027 Renewal Rate OutlookRoughly flat-to-slightly higher than 89.8% [1][3][4]
Executive membership growth is expected to modestly improve Costco's renewal rate. Costco concluded fiscal year 2026 with a worldwide membership renewal rate of 89.8% [1]. Management anticipates that an increase in Executive membership penetration will improve renewal rates over the longer term, as Executive members generally renew at higher rates than Gold Star members [3][4]. As of Q4 FY2026, Costco reported 42.3 million Executive members, indicating that Executive membership growth has outpaced overall membership growth [2].
Several factors will cause a gradual, rather than sharp, renewal rate increase. The positive effect on worldwide renewal rates is expected to be gradual rather than immediate [1]. This is because the worldwide renewal rate is a trailing measure, encompassing renewals from seven to eighteen months before the reporting date, meaning it lags current changes in the membership mix [1]. Furthermore, factors such as international market expansion and online memberships, which typically have slightly lower renewal rates, also influence the overall worldwide renewal figure [1]. Consequently, for fiscal year 2027, the continued adoption of Executive memberships is projected to produce a modest upward bias in Costco's worldwide renewal rate from the FY2026 baseline, likely resulting in a rate that is approximately flat-to-slightly higher than 89.8%, rather than a sharp increase [1][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW Form 10-K for the period ended August 30, 2026sec.gov
  2. 2costex9928-k92426sec.gov
  3. 3Costco (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Costco (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com

8. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Costco closed fiscal 2026 (August 30, 2026) with 150.4 million total cardholders, consisting of 84.1 million paid members and 66.3 million household cards; total cardholders grew 3.6% year over year from 145.2 million [1][2]. Renewal rates for fiscal 2026 were 92.3% in the U.S./Canada and 89.8% worldwide [1]. Management did not provide a precise FY2027 cardholder target, but indicated recent membership growth is probably more typical of the current environment [3][4]. A reasonable analytical base-case for FY2027 estimates approximately 155.5–156.4 million total cardholders, applying roughly 3.4%–4.0% growth to the FY2026 base [1][3]. The Kalshi FY2027 annual KPI market, which resolves around September 23, 2027, showed probabilities below 1% for outcomes exceeding 151 million, 152 million, or 153 million total cardholders at the time indexed [5]. Investors can monitor Q1 earnings on December 10, 2026, for further insights [6].
Bullish catalysts for FY2027 include 33 planned warehouse openings, resulting in 28 net additions, and approximately $7.5 billion in capital expenditure [3][4]. Stronger Executive membership penetration, improving renewal rates, digital engagement, and future Asian-market openings could further drive growth, with future Asian expansion potentially creating outsized membership growth [3][4]. Conversely, bearish catalysts include continued deceleration in membership growth and lower renewal rates among digitally acquired members [1][3][4]. Mature-market infill openings may also produce fewer new sign-ups, and the company faces potential tariff and merchandise-cost pressures [1][3][4]. Additionally, Costco's premium valuation leaves less room for execution misses [1][3][4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: December 22, 2027
  • Closes: December 22, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW Form 10-K for the period ended August 30, 2026sec.gov
  2. 2costex9928-k92426sec.gov
  3. 3COST Q4 2026 Earnings Call: Guidance & Transcript - Alpha Spreadalphaspread.com
  4. 4Earnings call transcript: Costco beats Q4 2026 forecasts,...investing.com
  5. 5Costco total cardholders in fiscal 2027 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  6. 6Costco Wholesale Corporation - Q1 2027 Earnings Callinvestor.costco.com