Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for Robinhood's fiscal 2026 event contracts trading volume exceeding $50 billion, assigning 20.0% probability versus the market's 0.0%. This divergence stems from significant volume growth in H1 2026, including a record Q2, with continued momentum expected from catalysts like the football season and US midterm elections.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The prediction market for Robinhood's 2026 event contract volume saw a single, sharp price movement. The contract opened at 0.0% probability and spiked to 50.0% on August 4, 2026, where it has remained. This jump followed the release of Robinhood's Q2 2026 earnings report on July 29. That report announced a record 13.6 billion event contracts traded in the quarter, with revenue from the product surpassing both crypto and equities. The price action suggests the market immediately priced in a significantly higher probability of the total 2026 volume exceeding the contract's threshold based on this strong quarterly performance.
Despite the dramatic price change, trading volume has been zero. This indicates the 50.0% price level was established without any transactional activity. The absence of volume suggests a lack of market participation and conviction behind the current price. The price itself reflects an initial market-maker setting or an untested offer rather than a consensus formed through buying and selling. The 50.0% level acts as the sole reference point, but without volume, it cannot be considered a tested support or resistance level. Market sentiment, as reflected by the price, is a 50/50 proposition, but the zero volume implies this sentiment is either not widely held or has not yet been expressed through capital allocation.
  • Record Q2 2026 volume makes above $50 billion likely for fiscal 2026.
  • Continued momentum from football season and elections may drive volume above $55 billion.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above $60 billion 77.0% 15.0% Market higher by 62.0pp
Above $90 billion 7.0% 0.3% Market higher by 6.7pp
Above $75 billion 19.0% 1.5% Market higher by 17.5pp
Above $80 billion 16.0% 1.0% Market higher by 15.0pp
Above $65 billion 65.0% 7.0% Market higher by 58.0pp

Current Context

Robinhood's event contract segment showed strong growth in Q2 2026. The platform reported a record 13.6 billion event contracts traded during the quarter, a notable increase from 8.8 billion in Q1 2026 [1][2][3]. This activity generated $156 million in revenue from event contracts for Q2 2026, marking a more than tenfold year-over-year increase. Event contract revenue surpassed both crypto ($100 million) and equities ($129 million) for the same period [1][2][4][3]. Customer engagement also expanded, with approximately 2 million customers trading event contracts by the end of Q2 2026, up from 1.5 million at the close of Q1 2026 [5]. Management indicated that average daily event contract volumes in July 2026 remained broadly consistent with Q2 2026 average levels [5].
New ventures and partnerships expanded Robinhood's event contract offerings. Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, launched in June 2026. Rothera handled 2.1 billion event contracts and generated $17 million in revenue during its inaugural month of operation [6][1][4]. Robinhood also offers sports-based event contracts through a partnership with the financial exchange Kalshi, which facilitates trading on the outcomes of professional and college football games [7].
Regulatory uncertainty persists for Robinhood's event contract markets. As of August 2026, Robinhood and Kalshi are involved in ongoing legal disputes with multiple U.S. states regarding the regulation of prediction markets [7][8][9]. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) maintains that it possesses exclusive regulatory authority over these markets [7][8]. The regulatory environment for event contracts remained highly uncertain in 2026, with the CFTC recently requesting public comment for rulemaking on event contracts and sports betting-like products [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Robinhood Reports $156M in Prediction Market Revenue Beating Crypto and Talks Perps - DeFi Ratedefirate.com
  2. 2Robinhood's Q2 Revenue Hits Record $1.31B as Prediction Markets Fuel 10x Surge in Event Contractscryptopotato.com
  3. 3Robinhood Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.robinhood.com
  4. 4Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) Q2 Results Signal Prediction Markets Surpass Cryptots2.tech
  5. 5Robinhood Says Rothera Is Top-3 Prediction Market Exchangegamblinginsider.com
  6. 6Robinhood June 2026 Trading Colorinvestors.robinhood.com
  7. 7NCAA 'concerned' by college football prediction marketsespn.com
  8. 8CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois over prediction market regulation - ESPNespn.com
  9. 9Future is unpredictable for prediction markets as courts add...espn.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 04, 2026: 50.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 50.0%

Outcome: Above $50 billion

What happened: The primary driver was likely a misinterpretation of Robinhood's Q2 2026 earnings report, released on July 29, 2026 [1][2]. The report announced a record 13.6 billion event contracts traded and $156 million in revenue from them, representing a tenfold year-over-year increase [3][4][5]. However, the "Above $50 billion" outcome for event contract trading volume in the prediction market likely confused the strong event contract growth with a separate announcement in the same report: the Robinhood Advisor Network reaching $50 billion in assets under management [1][2]. This apparent conflation of distinct metrics from the positive earnings likely caused the 50 percentage point spike on August 04, 2026. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Robinhood Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.robinhood.com
  2. 2Robinhood Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsglobenewswire.com
  3. 3Revenues up 32% year-over-year to a record $1.31 billionsec.gov
  4. 4Robinhood Reports $156M in Prediction Market Revenue Beating Crypto and Talks Perps - DeFi Ratedefirate.com
  5. 5Robinhood's Q2 Revenue Hits Record $1.31B as Prediction Markets Fuel 10x Surge in Event Contractscryptopotato.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "YES" if Robinhood's total trading volume for event contracts in fiscal 2026 exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., $75 billion for "Above $75 billion" contracts), and "NO" if it is equal to or less than that threshold. The market closes on February 11, 4:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of May 12, 2027. The provided content does not detail specific data sources or unique settlement conditions for determining the volume.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above $50 billion $0.95 $0.06 95%
Above $55 billion $0.89 $0.12 88%
Above $60 billion $0.78 $0.23 77%
Above $65 billion $0.65 $0.36 65%
Above $70 billion $0.38 $0.63 37%
Above $75 billion $0.20 $0.81 19%
Above $80 billion $0.16 $0.85 16%
Above $85 billion $0.09 $0.92 9%
Above $90 billion $0.07 $0.94 7%
Above $95 billion $0.06 $0.95 6%
Above $100 billion $0.06 $0.95 5%

Market Discussion

Robinhood reported substantial growth in event contract trading during Q2 2026, with 13.6 billion contracts traded, a 10x year-over-year increase, and $156 million in revenue, surpassing cryptocurrency revenue for the first time [1][2][3][4][5]. The launch of Rothera in June 2026, a joint venture, contributed significantly by handling 2.1 billion event contracts [6][7][8]. While analysts caution against extrapolating this growth indefinitely and legal scrutiny continues regarding product classification, there is no publicly available data on Robinhood's total event contract trading volume for fiscal 2026 [9][10][11][12].

Sources (12)
  1. 1Revenues up 32% year-over-year to a record $1.31 billionsec.gov
  2. 2Robinhood's Q2 Revenue Hits Record $1.31B as Prediction Markets Fuel 10x Surge in Event Contractscryptopotato.com
  3. 3Robinhood Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.robinhood.com
  4. 4Robinhood Reports $156M in Prediction Market Revenue Beating Crypto and Talks Perps - DeFi Ratedefirate.com
  5. 5Prediction Markets Outpace Crypto as Robinhood Hits Record $1.31B Revenuetechtimes.com
  6. 6Robinhood Says Rothera Is Top-3 Prediction Market Exchangegamblinginsider.com
  7. 7Three Things We Learned About Robinhood And Prediction Markets During Q2 Earningsnexteventhorizon.substack.com
  8. 8Robinhood Builds Rothera To Own the Event-Contract Fees It Once Paid Away | Sandmarksandmark.com
  9. 9Robinhood's Event Contracts Went From $10 Million to...fool.com
  10. 10Robinhood taps into event contracts to launch prediction markets hub | Reutersreuters.com
  11. 11Trading touchdowns: Robinhood launches Super Bowl prediction contractsreuters.com
  12. 12ESPN.com - U.S. senators ask CFTC to not weigh in on prediction market suitsespn.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 70 Good

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score72Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score62Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score70Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
91Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
60Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

11 contracts · worst first

Above $75 billion44
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above $60 billion47
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above $90 billion48
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above $85 billion50
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above $70 billion52
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above $80 billion61
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above $50 billion65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above $65 billion79
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above $55 billion—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above $95 billion—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above $100 billion—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
80Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

11 contracts · worst first

Above $100 billion48
Mixed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 3d

Above $95 billion49
Mixed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 3d

Above $60 billion66
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Above $55 billion89
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Above $50 billion—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Above $65 billion—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Above $70 billion—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Above $75 billion—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Above $80 billion—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Above $85 billion—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Above $90 billion—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

11 contracts · worst first

Above $50 billion100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $55 billion100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $60 billion100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $65 billion100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $70 billion100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $75 billion100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $80 billion100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $85 billion100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $90 billion100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $95 billion100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $100 billion100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
62Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 61 (notional-weighted across 8 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 94.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 94.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Above $50 billion65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $55 billion–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality89Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
89 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $60 billion47Market scoreLiquidity47Move quality66Rule clarity100
Why 47
Liquidity
47 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
66 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $65 billion79Market scoreLiquidity79Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 79
Liquidity
79 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $70 billion52Market scoreLiquidity52Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 52
Liquidity
52 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $75 billion44Market scoreLiquidity44Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 44
Liquidity
44 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $80 billion61Market scoreLiquidity61Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 61
Liquidity
61 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $85 billion50Market scoreLiquidity50Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 50
Liquidity
50 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $90 billion48Market scoreLiquidity48Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 48
Liquidity
48 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $95 billion–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality49Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
49 · Mixed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $100 billion–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality48Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
48 · Mixed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 18, 2026

6. What are the potential outcomes of the CFTC's 2026 rulemaking, and how could they impact Robinhood's event contract volume?

Q2 2026 Event Contracts Traded13.6 billion [1][2][3][4][5]
CFTC Rulemaking Target Year2026 [6]
Rulemaking Goal for ApprovalsStreamlined and shorter review cycles [7][8][9]
The CFTC's 2026 rulemaking aims to clarify event contract evaluation. This initiative seeks to establish a structured and transparent framework, particularly for "Enumerated Activities," by replacing broad prohibitions with a public interest inquiry on a case-by-case basis [6][10]. The proposed rule is expected to provide clearer boundaries and potentially shorten review cycles for new product approvals, which could foster responsible innovation in the market [7][8][9]. However, these regulatory changes also introduce new standardized and granular data reporting requirements, which are likely to increase compliance burdens for firms [9][7][11].
Robinhood's event contract business could see significant growth. The anticipated clearer boundaries and shorter review cycles for new product approvals may facilitate the introduction or expansion of Robinhood's event contract offerings [7][8][9]. Robinhood's prediction market business has shown substantial growth, with 13.6 billion event contracts traded in Q2 2026 alone [1][2][3][4][5]. The company's strategic decision to migrate more activity to its Rothera exchange aims to improve economics and scale operations within this evolving regulatory environment [1][2][3][4][5]. While the rulemaking could support continued expansion through a more defined approval process, the new data reporting requirements could also increase compliance demands, potentially impacting the operational aspects of Robinhood's event contract volume [9][7]. The available research does not specify the net quantitative impact on Robinhood's total trading volume in fiscal 2026.
Sources (11)
  1. 1Robinhood Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.robinhood.com
  2. 2Revenues up 32% year-over-year to a record $1.31 billionsec.gov
  3. 3Robinhood Says Rothera Is Top-3 Prediction Market Exchangegamblinginsider.com
  4. 4Robinhood Reports $156M in Prediction Market Revenue Beating Crypto and Talks Perps - DeFi Ratedefirate.com
  5. 5Robinhood's Q2 Revenue Hits Record $1.31B as Prediction Markets Fuel 10x Surge in Event Contractscryptopotato.com
  6. 610 Takeaways from the CFTC Event Contracts Proposed...wilmerhale.com
  7. 7Game Plan or Game Changer? The CFTC Proposes New Rules for Event Contracts and Prediction Markets | Katten Muchin Rosenman LLPkatten.com
  8. 8CFTC Issues Proposed Rule Regarding Prediction Marketscongress.gov
  9. 917 CFR Parts 15, 16, 17: Data Reporting Requirements for Certain Event Contractscftc.gov
  10. 1035806govinfo.gov
  11. 11CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Notice of Proposed...cftc.gov

7. What key factors drove Robinhood's record Q2 2026 event contract volume, and do leading indicators suggest this trend will continue through fiscal year-end?

Q2 2026 Event Contract Volume13.6 billion contracts [1][2][3][4]
Q2 2026 Event Contract Revenue$156 million [1][5][6]
Q2 2026 Event Contract Revenue YoY Growthover 10x [1][5][6]
Robinhood achieved a record 13.6 billion event contracts in Q2 2026. This significant growth in event contract volume was fueled by several factors, including the introduction of the Rothera exchange, increased product development speed, and an expanding user base of nearly 2 million customers. High-interest global events, such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup, also contributed to this surge in activity [1][2][3][4].
Event contracts generated $156 million, surpassing cryptocurrency revenue in Q2. During Q2 2026, event contracts generated $156 million in revenue, marking an impressive over 10x year-over-year growth [1][5][6]. For the first time, event contract revenue surpassed cryptocurrency revenue, which stood at $100 million in the same period. Prediction markets had been projected to overshadow cryptocurrency trading revenue as early as the second quarter [1][5][6][7].
Leading indicators suggest continued strong event contract momentum through year-end. These indicators imply that the robust activity in event contracts is likely to persist through the fiscal year-end [1][8][4][9]. Key indicators include July trading volumes for event contracts, which remained consistent with the averages seen in Q2, and anticipation of the upcoming 2026 U.S. midterm elections, which are expected to drive further engagement [1][8][4][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Robinhood Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.robinhood.com
  2. 2Robinhood Q2 Revenue Hits a Record $1.31 Billion, Up 32%thequantumdispatch.com
  3. 3Robinhood's Q2 Revenue Hits Record $1.31B as Prediction Markets Fuel 10x Surge in Event Contractscryptopotato.com
  4. 4Robinhood Says Rothera Is Top-3 Prediction Market Exchangegamblinginsider.com
  5. 5Revenues up 32% year-over-year to a record $1.31 billionsec.gov
  6. 6Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) Q2 Results Signal Prediction Markets Surpass Cryptots2.tech
  7. 7Robinhood Chain Growth | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com
  8. 8Robinhood Reports $156M in Prediction Market Revenue for Q2 2026, Hits Record $1.31B Totalpredictionauthority.com
  9. 9Robinhood Reports $156M in Prediction Market Revenue Beating Crypto and Talks Perps - DeFi Ratedefirate.com

8. How does the growth and revenue profile of Robinhood's event contracts compare to its equities and cryptocurrency segments in fiscal 2026?

Event contracts revenue Q2 2026$156 million [1][2][3][4]
Event contracts revenue growth YOYover 10x year-over-year [1][2][5][4]
Event contracts trading volume Q2 202613.6 billion contracts [1][6][5][7]
Robinhood's event contracts segment led revenue and growth in Q2 2026. In fiscal Q2 2026, Robinhood's event contracts segment generated $156 million in revenue, making it the highest earner. This significantly surpassed equities, which brought in $129 million, and cryptocurrencies, which earned $100 million during the same period [1][2][3][4]. The segment also demonstrated exceptional growth, with its revenue increasing over 10x year-over-year. In contrast, equities revenue grew by 95%, while cryptocurrency revenue experienced a 38% decline year-over-year [1][2][5][4].
Event contracts achieved record trading volumes, fueled by strategic growth. The total trading volume for event contracts reached a record 13.6 billion contracts in Q2 2026 [1][6][5][7]. This represents an increase of more than 10x compared to the same period in 2025 and a sequential increase of approximately 50% from Q1 2026 [1][6][5][7]. Reflecting a strategic focus on integrating derivatives and event-oriented trading, Robinhood expanded its platform in 2026 by adding CME cryptocurrency futures contracts, such as Bitcoin Friday futures [8]. The broader prediction market landscape is also experiencing strong expansion, with total market volumes potentially exceeding $20 billion per month by the end of 2026, driven by crypto and macro-linked event contracts [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Robinhood Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.robinhood.com
  2. 2Robinhood Q2 2026 Earnings: A Record Quarter, Its First-Ever Debt, and a One-Time Gain Hiding in Plain Sight | Beancount.iobeancount.io
  3. 3Robinhood's Event Contract Revenue Tops Crypto and Equities as Q2 Sales Hit a Record $1.31 Billion - Unchainedunchainedcrypto.com
  4. 4Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) Q2 Results Signal Prediction Markets Surpass Cryptots2.tech
  5. 5Robinhood Q2 2026 earnings beat on record prediction...qz.com
  6. 6Robinhood's Q2 Revenue Hits Record $1.31B as Prediction Markets Fuel 10x Surge in Event Contractscryptopotato.com
  7. 7Robinhood Says Rothera Is Top-3 Prediction Market Exchangegamblinginsider.com
  8. 8CF Benchmarks Newsletter - Issue 73 - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  9. 9Risk-On Reloaded: Monetary Easing, Catch-up Trades, and the Tokenization Buildout - CFBcfbenchmarks.com

9. What official data sources and company disclosures are available for tracking Robinhood's event contract volume throughout the remainder of 2026?

Monthly Volume DisclosureEvent Contracts Traded measured in billions of contracts via Investor Relations, monthly operating data, and Trading Color updates [1][2][3][4]
Event Contract DefinitionTotal contracts bought or sold on Prediction Markets Hub, each valued at $1 upon settlement [1][3][4]
Quarterly Data DisclosureEvent contract revenue and total volume in quarterly earnings releases (Form 10-Q) and SEC filings [5][2]
Robinhood’s event contract volume can be tracked through various official company disclosures. The company publicly reports its monthly "Event Contracts Traded" metric, presented in billions of contracts, via its Investor Relations website. This data is released through monthly operating data releases and periodic "Trading Color" updates [1][2][3][4]. This metric is specifically defined as the total number of event contracts bought or sold on the Prediction Markets Hub over a given period, with each contract having a settlement value of $1 [1][3][4].
Quarterly data is available through SEC filings and third-party platforms. Robinhood's official financial results, which encompass event contract revenue and total volume, are detailed in its quarterly earnings releases (Form 10-Q) and corresponding investor presentations filed with the SEC [5][2]. Beyond these direct company disclosures, third-party financial data platforms, such as The Block, also compile and track Robinhood's monthly event contract volume, offering an alternative aggregated data source [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Robinhood Markets, Inc. January 2026 Monthly Metricsinvestors.robinhood.com
  2. 2Robinhood Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsglobenewswire.com
  3. 3Robinhood Markets, Inc. Reports April 2026 Operating Data | Wed, 05/13/2026 - 16:05investors.robinhood.com
  4. 4Robinhood June 2026 Trading Colorinvestors.robinhood.com
  5. 5Revenues up 32% year-over-year to a record $1.31 billionsec.gov
  6. 6https://www.theblock.co/data/decentralized-finance/prediction-markets/robinhood-monthly-event-contracts-tradedtheblock.co

10. What is the projected H2 2026 contribution of the Rothera joint venture and the Kalshi sports contract partnership to Robinhood's total volume?

Robinhood Q2 2026 Total Trading Volume13.6 billion event contracts [1][2]
Rothera Q2 2026 Contribution2.1 billion contracts [1][2]
Rothera Q2 2026 Percentage Contribution15.4% [1][2]
The projected H2 2026 contribution remains unspecified in current research. Robinhood reported a total trading volume of 13.6 billion event contracts in Q2 2026. The Rothera joint venture exchange, which launched in late May, contributed 2.1 billion contracts during its first month of operation, accounting for approximately 15.4% of this total volume [1][2]. However, the available research does not currently provide specific projections for the H2 2026 contribution of either the Rothera joint venture or the Kalshi sports contract partnership to Robinhood's overall volume.
Robinhood plans a multi-exchange strategy for prediction markets. Robinhood anticipates migrating more trading volume to Rothera in the near to medium term to improve internal economics, establishing Rothera as the primary venue for high-volume markets, such as World Cup match outcomes [1][3][4]. Despite this, Robinhood intends to maintain a multi-exchange approach, continuing to utilize Kalshi for complex products like player-specific contracts, parlays, and other nuanced event categories [1][3][4]. Additionally, ForecastEx will be employed for specific contract types and to provide a backstop [1][3][4][5][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Robinhood Says Rothera Is Top-3 Prediction Market Exchangegamblinginsider.com
  2. 2Robinhood Reports $156M in Prediction Market Revenue Beating Crypto and Talks Perps - DeFi Ratedefirate.com
  3. 3Robinhood's Prediction Markets Surpass Crypto Revenue for First Timeblockhead.co
  4. 4Robinhood Says Rothera To Take Most But Not All Prediction Flowingame.com
  5. 5Robinhood's Rothera Launch Reshapes Its Role in the Event Contract Marketgamblinginsider.com
  6. 6Robinhood Launches Rothera Contracts To App Users, $2 Million Traded On First Weekendfinance.yahoo.com
  7. 7Robinhood bought a license. Kalshi had built a businesscrypto.news
  8. 8Robinhood shifts from Kalshi to Rothera for World Cup prediction marketscryptobriefing.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Prediction market growth drivers include Robinhood's significant trading volumes and new market entries. Robinhood reported a record 13.6 billion event contracts traded in Q2 2026, yielding $156 million in revenue, a 10x year-over-year increase [1][2][3]. Combined with Q1 2026 volume of 8.8 billion contracts, Robinhood processed at least 22.4 billion event contracts in the first half of 2026 [2][4]. Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, launched in June 2026, handling 2.1 billion contracts and generating $17 million in revenue in its first month [2][4]. Further bullish catalysts include Rothera's expansion, the upcoming September 2026 football season, and cross-selling prediction market users into other financial products [4][5]. Robinhood's revenue from prediction markets is set to overshadow that from cryptocurrency trading starting as soon as Q2 [6].
Countervailing forces stem from regulatory uncertainty and potential market restrictions. The regulatory environment for prediction markets remains complex and subject to ongoing litigation as of August 2026, with the CFTC, state gaming regulators, and federal legislators debating oversight of event contracts [7][8][9]. Robinhood has faced legal challenges from state gambling regulators in jurisdictions like New Jersey and Nevada regarding their sports market offerings, which are contested as unregulated gambling products [8][9]. Bearish risks include potential limits on event contract types and the ongoing drag from subdued cryptocurrency trading activity [4][5]. There is no publicly available, company-disclosed total trading volume figure for Robinhood's specific event contracts in fiscal 2026, as the industry faces significant regulatory scrutiny and pending rulemaking from the CFTC [7][9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 12, 2027
  • Closes: May 12, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1Revenues up 32% year-over-year to a record $1.31 billionsec.gov
  2. 2Robinhood Reports $156M in Prediction Market Revenue Beating Crypto and Talks Perps - DeFi Ratedefirate.com
  3. 3Robinhood Says Rothera Is Top-3 Prediction Market Exchangegamblinginsider.com
  4. 4The DOE Said 64 Days. They Did It in 16. – Stock Reportstockreport.com
  5. 5Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) Q2 Results Signal Prediction Markets Surpass Cryptots2.tech
  6. 6Robinhood Chain Growth | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com
  7. 7Future is unpredictable for prediction markets as courts add to confusion - ESPNespn.com
  8. 8NCAA 'concerned' by college football prediction marketsespn.com
  9. 9ESPN.com - U.S. senators ask CFTC to not weigh in on prediction market suitsespn.com