Costco total cardholders in Q1
Short Answer
Costco is likely to have above 150.8 million total cardholders in Q1 2027, consistent with an inferred analyst estimate of approximately 151.7 million and continued, normalizing growth, with the market pricing this outcome at 94.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's low valuation is a direct response to Costco's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report, which established a baseline of 150.4 million cardholders as of August 30, 2026. The contract resolves on whether the Q1 2027 total will exceed 150.6 million. The market price, which has remained below 12%, reflects the low perceived probability of Costco adding a net 200,000 members in a single quarter.
The price action has been confined to a narrow band, with an early drop from 8% to 2% on October 2, suggesting a quick consensus formed around the difficulty of reaching the target. No subsequent news appears to have altered this fundamental calculation. Total traded volume is low, indicating limited conviction or interest in betting against the baseline established by the latest financial disclosures.
- Costco's Q1 2027 total cardholders are estimated near 151.7 million.
- This estimate supports outcomes above 151.2 million.
- Cardholder growth normalization likely limits Q1 2027 totals below 151.8 million.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 152.2 million | 2.0% | 9.0% | This threshold is further above the inferred estimate, and membership growth is normalizing. |
| Above 151.2 million | 79.0% | 70.2% | The inferred 151.7 million cardholder estimate is above this threshold. |
| Above 152 million | 15.0% | 10.1% | This threshold is notably above the inferred estimate and practical range. |
| Above 150.8 million | 94.0% | 90.7% | The inferred analyst estimate of 151.7 million cardholders is comfortably above this threshold. |
| Above 151 million | 91.0% | 86.3% | The inferred 151.7 million cardholder estimate is well above this threshold. |
Current Context
Q1 2027 cardholder figures are awaited for December 10. Costco's Q1 2027 earnings call will occur on December 10, 2026 [4]. Prediction markets, including platforms such as Kalshi, have established contracts tied to total cardholders for Q1 2027 [5][6]. These contracts feature threshold targets, notably 151.8 million cardholders [5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter andglobenewswire.com
- 2Costco (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 3Costco Wholesale Q4 Earnings Call Highlightsamericanbankingnews.com
- 4Q1 2027 Earnings Call - Costco Wholesale Corporationinvestor.costco.com
- 5Costco total cardholders in Q1 | Prediction Markets - Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 6Costco total cardholders in Q1 Odds & Predictions 2027 - Kalshikalshi.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 October 01, 2026: 87.0pp spike
Price increased from 7.0% to 94.0%
Outcome: Above 150.8 million
What happened: There is no evidence in the provided research to suggest an 87.0 percentage point spike occurred in the "Costco total cardholders in Q1" prediction market on October 1, 2026 [1][2]. On that date, Costco news focused on fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, inflationary pressures, and a LIFO charge, with no mention of a social media catalyst or stock spike related to 150.8 million cardholders [1][3][4]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, as no primary driver for the described market movement is evidenced by the available information [1][2].
Sources (4)
- 1Costco (NASDAQ:COST) Steadies After Quarterly Beatkalkinemedia.com
- 2Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST): The Retail Stocks Name Making Headlines Right Nowkalkinemedia.com
- 3Costco Warns Holiday Shoppers: Memory Chip Shortage to Push Electronics Prices Higherfinance.biggo.com
- 4Even Costco's buyers can't stop what's coming for these prices.thestreet.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market predicts Costco's total cardholders in Q1. A YES resolution occurs if the total cardholders are above 151.4 million, while a NO resolution occurs if they are 151.4 million or less. The market closes on December 10 at 4:15 PM EST, with the maximum payout scheduled for April 9, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 150.8 million | $0.95 | $0.07 | 94% |
| Above 151 million | $0.95 | $0.13 | 91% |
| Above 151.2 million | $0.77 | $0.25 | 79% |
| Above 151.8 million | $0.28 | $0.80 | 24% |
| Above 152 million | $0.18 | $0.91 | 15% |
| Above 152.8 million | $0.05 | $0.96 | 11% |
| Above 152.2 million | $0.10 | $0.92 | 2% |
| Above 150.6 million | $0.96 | $0.05 | 0% |
| Above 151.4 million | $0.52 | $0.50 | 0% |
| Above 151.6 million | $0.48 | $0.67 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The prediction market targets whether Costco's total cardholders in Q1 2027 will exceed 151.8 million [1]. This compares to Costco's reported 105.9 million total cardholders for fiscal Q1 2026, a 5.1% year-over-year increase, with management noting "healthy but 'a little slower'" membership growth attributed partly to digitally acquired members renewing at lower rates [2]. While prior prediction markets for Q3 2026 indicated traders were forecasting around 146–149 million cardholders, this figure appears significantly higher than the reported Q1 2026 baseline [3].
5. Trust Index
Company-reported metric: finance and investor relations know the number before the earnings release
Integrity risk· Information exposure
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good
Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score60Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score71Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. What is the consensus among Wall Street analysts for Costco's total cardholders in their Q1 2027 earnings report?
| Analyst Consensus Q1 FY2027 Cardholders | Not published [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Total Cardholders Q4 FY2026 | 150.4 million [1][4][5] |
| Inferred Q1 FY2027 Cardholders | Approximately 151.7 million [1][4][5] |
Wall Street analysts lack a direct consensus for Costco's Q1 FY2027 cardholders. Publicly available analyst-consensus pages do not publish a distinct estimate for Costco's Q1 FY2027 total cardholder key performance indicator [1][2][3]. Despite this, an inference based on the company's reported growth suggests a lean slightly below the prediction market's threshold of 151.8 million cardholders [1][4][5].
Inferred cardholder figures derive from Costco's Q4 FY2026 growth. Costco concluded Q4 FY2026 with 150.4 million total cardholders, reflecting a 3.6% year-over-year increase, a rate management described as normalizing [1][4][5]. Applying this growth rate to the Q4 FY2026 base implies approximately 151.7 million cardholders for Q1 FY2027 [1][4][5]. This inferred figure is just below the prediction market's 151.8 million cardholder threshold, indicating the evidence-based consensus leans slightly below this mark with low precision [6][1][4][5]. A practical analyst-style range for Q1 FY2027 total cardholders is approximately 151.5–151.8 million, with 151.8 million acting as the key cutoff [7][1][4].
Sources (7)
- 1What analysts are saying about Costco after its earnings reportseekingalpha.com
- 2Costco Wholesale Corporation: Financial Data Forecasts Estimates and Expectations | COST | US22160K1051 | MarketScreener Canadaca.marketscreener.com
- 3Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) After Its Yearly Results - Simply Wall St Newssimplywall.st
- 4Costco Delivers Top-Line Sales Growth for Q4, FY2026 | Progressive Grocerprogressivegrocer.com
- 5Costco (COST) Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings Call: Sales Rise 11.2...tradingkey.com
- 6Costco total cardholders in Q1 | Prediction Markets - Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 7Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings Call...seekingalpha.com
7. What key initiatives or macroeconomic trends during Fiscal Q1 2027 could cause Costco's cardholder growth to accelerate or decelerate from its Q4 2026 rate?
| FY2027 New Warehouses | Approximately 30 net-new warehouses planned (plan) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Renewal Rate Improvement | 10-basis-point sequential improvement (U.S./Canada and worldwide) [4][5][6] |
| Q4 Digital Sales Growth | 19.5% rise in digitally enabled comparable sales [1][2][7] |
Costco anticipates cardholder growth deceleration in Q1 2027 from Q4 2026. This expected slowdown is primarily attributed to the normalization of new member sign-ups and the conclusion of the year-over-year benefit derived from the September 2024 U.S./Canada fee increase [8][4][5][9][1]. Management indicates that while new sign-ups continue to increase, their nature is becoming more typical as younger, digitally acquired members transition into renewal cohorts [4][5][9]. The Q4 period marked the last quarter to experience a year-over-year boost from the fee increase, shifting the dependence for net additions more heavily towards new sign-ups and renewals [8][1][5]. Furthermore, a higher proportion of online members may exert pressure on renewal rates, and broader macroeconomic conditions such as cautious discretionary spending, weaker income and job growth, and rising unemployment could constrain discretionary membership purchases [1][2][7][10][11][3].
Conversely, several factors could potentially accelerate cardholder growth in Q1. Specific Q1 warehouse openings, including new locations in Amherst, New York, and Lawrence, Kansas, are expected to generate localized sign-ups [1][2][3]. Sustained improvements from targeted digital communications and retention strategies are crucial for boosting cardholder retention, building on previous sequential improvements of 10 basis points in both U.S./Canada and worldwide renewal rates [4][5][6]. Stronger digital engagement, evidenced by a 19.5% rise in digitally enabled comparable sales and a 30% increase in site and app traffic in Q4, also presents an opportunity to accelerate new sign-ups [1][2][7]. Additionally, an increased penetration of executive memberships can support renewal rates and contribute to overall membership growth, while Costco's visible price leadership amidst inflationary pressures may attract value-oriented sign-ups [4][9][7][8][12][3].
Sources (12)
- 1Costco Q4 sales rise 11.2% to $93.9B | COST 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 2Costco Delivers Top-Line Sales Growth for Q4, FY2026 | Progressive Grocerprogressivegrocer.com
- 3Will October NFP and CPI data trigger another Fed hike?gomarkets.ltd
- 4Costco (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 5Earnings Whispers | Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptbeta.earningswhispers.com
- 6cost-20250831 - SEC.govsec.gov
- 7Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) (Q4 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Double-Digit Sales Growth, Digital Surge, and Membership Momentumgurufocus.com
- 8Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter andglobenewswire.com
- 9Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Earnings Call Transcript & Summaryearningscalls.dev
- 10October 2026 Macro Catalyst Outlook - Spheric Newsspheric.news
- 11PNC - Consumer Health Check - October 2026pnc.com
- 12Costco Wholesale Corporation - Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Third Quarter and Year-To-Date Operating Results For Fiscal 2026investor.costco.com
8. How has Costco's quarterly membership growth rate compared to that of Sam's Club over the past two fiscal years (FY2025-FY2026)?
| Costco Total Cardholder Growth FY2026 Q4 | +3.6% [1] |
|---|---|
| Costco Paid-Membership Growth FY2026 Q4 | +3.8% [2] |
| Sam's Club Membership Income Growth FY2025 | +13.3% [3] |
Costco's membership growth experienced a notable slowdown during fiscal year 2026. The total cardholder growth rate declined from +6.1% at the end of FY2025 to +3.6% by the end of FY2026 [1]. Quarterly paid-membership growth also fell below its historical 6%-7% range, recording +4.8% in Q2 FY2026, +4.1% in Q3, and +3.8% in Q4 [4][5][2]. Costco's management attributed this normalization to tougher year-over-year comparisons and the maturation of digitally engaged members, despite an increase in new member sign-ups during FY2026 [1][6][2].
Sam's Club reported faster membership-income growth, serving as a proxy metric. Sam's Club, which publicly discloses membership-income growth rather than direct member counts, showed a +13.3% increase for FY2025, including +12.5% in Q4 FY2025 [3][7][8]. This growth suggested Sam's Club outpaced Costco's mid-single-digit paid-member growth in FY2025 [9]. In FY2026, Sam's Club's membership-income growth continued to be robust, registering +7.6% in Q2, which was faster than Costco's +4.8% paid-member growth for the same quarter [10][11]. It is important to note that Sam's Club's public disclosures do not include a comparable quarterly member-count percentage series for direct comparison with Costco [3].
Sources (11)
- 1Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter andglobenewswire.com
- 2COST Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates on Sales and Digital Strengthfinance.yahoo.com
- 3Walmart Inc.stock.walmart.com
- 4The key metric investors are focused on when Costco reports earningscnbc.com
- 5Costco Wholesale: Q3-FY26 | MarketScreener Canadaca.marketscreener.com
- 6Costco (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 7Earnings Release (FY25 Q4)stock.walmart.com
- 8Earnings Presentation (FY25 Q4)stock.walmart.com
- 9Q4 2025 Earnings Callstock.walmart.com
- 10Walmart, Inc.stock.walmart.com
- 11August 20, 2026 - EX-99.1 - 8-K: Current report | Walmart Inc. (WMT)stock.walmart.com
9. What has been Costco's historical quarter-over-quarter growth in total cardholders specifically for Q1 reports from FY2022 to FY2026?
| Q1 FY2022 Cardholder Increase | 1.5 million (1.34%) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Total Cardholders Q1 FY2024 | 127.9 million [1][2][4][3] |
| Total Cardholders Q1 FY2026 | 145.9 million [1][2][4][3] |
Costco's cardholder base consistently grew, adding 1.5 million in Q1 FY2022. This increase represented a 1.34% rise compared to the preceding quarter, Q4 FY2021 [1][2][3]. The company has shown consistent expansion in its total cardholders across several fiscal years. At the close of Q1 FY2022, Costco reported 113.1 million cardholders. This figure subsequently grew to 120.3 million for FY2023 and an estimated 127.9 million for FY2024. Projections anticipate further growth, reaching 138.8 million for FY2025 and 145.9 million for FY2026 [1][2][4][3].
10. What were Costco's reported membership renewal rates for the U.S. & Canada and internationally in its Q4 2026 report, and how do these figures benchmark against previous years?
| U.S. and Canada Renewal Rate | 92.3% (Q4 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Worldwide Renewal Rate | 89.8% (Q4 2026) [1][2] |
| Total Cardholders | 150.4 million (Q4 2026) [1][2][3] |
Costco reported strong membership renewal rates with quarterly improvements in Q4 2026. The company's U.S. and Canada membership renewal rate reached 92.3%, while the worldwide renewal rate stood at 89.8% [1][2]. Both these figures indicated a 10 basis point improvement when compared to the previous quarter [1][2].
Membership renewal rates have shown consistent stability in recent years. From fiscal years 2022 to 2026, Costco's U.S. and Canada rates typically ranged between 92% and 93%, with worldwide rates generally staying within the 89%–90% range [1][2][4][5][6]. As of the conclusion of Q4 2026, the company reported a total of 150.4 million cardholders, marking a 3.6% increase from the previous year [1][2][3].
Sources (6)
- 1Costco (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
- 2Costco (COST) Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings Call: Sales Rise 11.2%, Expansion Acceleratestradingkey.com
- 3Costco Wholesale Q4 2026 Earnings Reportmarketbeat.com
- 4[PDF] Costco Annual Report 2025s201.q4cdn.com
- 520242024s201.q4cdn.com
- 6FISCAL YEAR ENDED AUGUST 28, 20222022ANNUAL REPORTs201.q4cdn.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Potential catalysts for Costco include the possibility of a special dividend [1]. Ongoing digital sales growth, driven by AI and app integrations, continues to develop [1][2]. Expansion in Asian markets presents a source for membership growth [1]. Bullish sentiment finds support in consistent comparable sales growth and membership renewal rates [1]. The ongoing pass-through of tariff refunds may impact reported margins in the first half of fiscal 2027 [1][2].
Conversely, risks encompass rising capital expenditures for fiscal 2027 [1]. Concerns also exist regarding the normalization of membership fee growth [1][3]. Potential margin pressure stems from inventory accounting and tariff-related price pass-throughs [2]. Costco reported 150.4 million total cardholders at the end of fiscal year 2026, August 30, 2026 [4][5]. The company is scheduled to report its Q1 fiscal year 2027 earnings around December 10, 2026 [6].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 09, 2027
- Closes: April 09, 2027
Sources (6)
- 1Costco earnings analysis: questions answered and next catalysts By Investing.comin.investing.com
- 2Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) (Q4 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Double-Digit Sales Growth, Digital Surge, and Membership Momentumgurufocus.com
- 3Costco (COST) Q4 FY2026 Earnings: Core Margin Rises, Fee Growth Slows | drillrdrillr.ai
- 4Costco Q4 FY2026 slides: 11% sales growth, digital surge...investing.com
- 5Costco Delivers Top-Line Sales Growth for Q4, FY2026 | Progressive Grocerprogressivegrocer.com
- 6https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/it:1cost/earningstipranks.com
