CAVA total restaurants in Q1 2027
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Above 535 restaurants likely, driven by CAVA's 16%+ unit growth target for 2027. CAVA reached 500 restaurants in Q3 2026; 35 more needed for 535 target.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 525 | 0.0% | 12.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 530 | 0.0% | 12.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 535 | 0.0% | 12.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 540 | 0.0% | 12.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above 545 | 0.0% | 12.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
Sources (15)
- 1CAVA total restaurants in Q1 2027: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 2Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Group Reports Third Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 3Cava Group Inc. (via Public) / Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending October 4, 2026 (Form 10-Q)ebs.publicnow.com
- 4CAVA’s Growth Story Keeps Building - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 5cava-20261004sec.gov
- 6CAVA Earnings Preview: Kalshi Traders Bet on Cyclospora Talk as Sales Recovery Faces Testfinance.yahoo.com
- 7CAVA Group (CAVA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 8CAVA Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Brett Schulman Say?benzinga.com
- 9CAVA posts $1.18B revenue, 72 net new restaurants in 2025 | CAVA SEC Filing - Form ARSstocktitan.net
- 10CAVA's Flat Earnings Forecast Suggests the Mediterranean Honeymoon Is Overbarchart.com
- 11CAVA Group (CAVA) Stock Price, Chart & Newsstockanalysis.com
- 12CAVA climbs as investors appear to position for earnings and continued growth | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com
- 13CAVA earnings on deck: Growth test amid fast casual headwinds By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 14CAVA (CAVA) Restaurant Count by Quarter - Stocknearstocknear.com
- 15CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA) - Earnings & Revenue Performance - Simply Wall Stsimplywall.st
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market, specifically for "Above 535" CAVA total restaurants next quarter (Q3 2026), resolves to 'YES' if the number of restaurants is strictly greater than 535, and 'NO' if it is 535 or less. Trading concludes on May 18, 4:00 PM EDT, with the maximum payout scheduled for September 15, 2027. The market is settled based on the total restaurant count reported for CAVA's Q3 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 525 | $0.98 | $0.11 | 0% |
| Above 530 | $0.86 | $0.24 | 0% |
| Above 535 | $0.58 | $0.52 | 0% |
| Above 540 | $0.29 | $0.80 | 0% |
| Above 545 | $0.13 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Above 565 | $0.06 | $0.99 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders are actively predicting CAVA's total restaurant count for Q1 2027, focusing on key thresholds of 530, 535, and 540 restaurants. The market shows a strong consensus for continued expansion, with an 81% chance of exceeding 530 restaurants, likely driven by CAVA's historical growth trend. However, there is significant debate around the 535-restaurant mark (53% Yes, 52% No), while exceeding 540 restaurants is considered unlikely by traders (24% chance).
4. Based on CAVA's Q3 2026 results and 2027 guidance, what is the projected path to reach the market's median forecast of 535 restaurants by Q1 2027?
| CAVA Restaurants Q3 2026 | 500 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Projected Net New Restaurants to Q1 2027 | approximately 35 [1][2][3][4] |
| FY2026 Net New Restaurant Guidance | 76-78 [1][3] |
Sources (7)
- 1CAVA Group (CAVA) Q3 2026 earnings call transcriptgloom.sh
- 2CAVA earnings: net income falls 10.5% to $13.2Mstocktitan.net
- 3Cava Group Inc (CAVA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: 500 Restgurufocus.com
- 4CAVA total restaurants in Q1 2027: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 5unit count Growth Guided at 16% for 2027 | Full Recordingyoutube.com
- 6CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictionssimplywall.st
- 7CAVA raises 2026 outlook after strong Q1 report, shares popproactiveinvestors.com
5. How might CAVA's Q4 2026 earnings report, expected in February 2027, alter its unit growth trajectory for the first quarter of 2027?
| Q4 2026 Earnings Report Timing | Late February 2027 (during Q1 2027) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Full-Year 2026 Net New Locations Forecast | 76-78 [3][4] |
| Long-Term Location Goal | 1,000 by 2032 [2][5] |
Sources (8)
- 1CAVA Group (CAVA) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
- 2CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA) - Earnings & Revenue Performancesimplywall.st
- 3CAVA Group shares slide 11% after missing estimatesproactiveinvestors.com
- 4CAVA outlines 2026 outlook with 76-78 net new openings and $184 M-...seekingalpha.com
- 5Should CAVA's 500th Store Milestone and 1000-Location Goal Reshape...finance.yahoo.com
- 6CAVA total restaurants in Q1 2027: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 7Cava To Open 75 New Stores, Hire 2500 Workersbisnow.com
- 8CAVA Group Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
6. How does CAVA's target of at least 16% unit growth in 2027 compare to the recent expansion rates and strategies of fast-casual peers like Chipotle and Sweetgreen?
| CAVA FY2027 Unit Growth Target | At least 16% [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] |
|---|---|
| CAVA Total Restaurants End 2026 | Approximately 514-516 [10] |
| Chipotle 2026 Unit Growth Rate | 8-10% [7][9] |
Sources (10)
- 1What CAVA Group (CAVA) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Calltradingview.com
- 2Cava Group Inc (CAVA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
- 3RBC cuts Cava stock price target on Q3 miss, maintains Outperforminvesting.com
- 4CAVA and Dutch Bros Sell Off as Slowing Traffic and Rising Costs...brief.sharpertrades.com
- 5Sweetgreen Finds More Ways to Grow - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 6Sweetgreen (SG) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 7Chipotle Mexican Grill Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
- 8Sweetgreen's same-store sales and traffic turn positivenrn.com
- 9Fast casual chains remain optimistic about unit development | Restaurant Diverestaurantdive.com
- 10CAVA Group Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsstocktitan.net
7. What publicly available data, such as real estate permits or 'coming soon' announcements, can provide leading indicators for CAVA's Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 openings?
| Fiscal 2026 Net New Openings Guidance | 75-77 restaurants (raised from 74-76 in Feb 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Target Locations by 2032 | 1,000 [4][5][3] |
| Kalshi Q1 2027 Total Restaurants Median | 535.5 (94% prob. > 525, 53% prob. > 535) [6] |
Sources (9)
- 1CAVA Group Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 2CAVA outlines raised FY2026 plan for 75-77 net new openings and 4.5%-6.5% same-restaurant salesseekingalpha.com
- 3CAVA Group posts 32% Q1 2026 revenue growth | CAVA 8-K Filingstocktitan.net
- 4Mediterranean restaurant chain Cava plans first West Michigan location in...crainsgrandrapids.com
- 5CAVA Group (CAVA) Targets 1000 Locations By 2032finance.yahoo.com
- 6CAVA total restaurants in Q1 2027: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 7Cava Group Inc (CAVA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
- 8CAVA Raises Pre-Opening Cost Guide 30% for One More Openingfourweekmba.com
- 9Mediterranean Food Chain CAVA to Open More Than 75 New Locations...thenationalherald.com
8. What assumptions about new restaurant openings underpin the bullish price targets for CAVA stock from analysts at TD Cowen ($100) and RBC ($105)?
| Long-term restaurant goal | 1,000+ restaurants by 2032 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Annual expansion pace | 75-80+ net new restaurants [1][3][4][5] |
| FY2026 new restaurant forecast | 76-78 net new restaurants [6][7] |
Sources (9)
- 1Cava Group (CAVA) Stock Sees Modest Fair Value Cut After Mixed...finance.yahoo.com
- 2CAVA Group (CAVA) Targets 1000 Locations By 2032finance.yahoo.com
- 3CAVA Group, Inc. Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (CAVA)perplexity.ai
- 4CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictionssimplywall.st
- 5Is Earnings Outlook Improving Altering The Investment Case For Cava Stock?simplywall.st
- 6CAVA Group shares slide 11% after missing estimatesproactiveinvestors.com
- 7CAVA outlines 2026 outlook with 76-78 net new openings and $184 M-...seekingalpha.com
- 8CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA) Price Target Cut to $65.00 by Analysts at...marketbeat.com
- 9Cava's Sales Growth to Continue as New Restaurants Outperform, RBC...finance.yahoo.com
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 15, 2027
- Closes: September 15, 2027
Sources (15)
- 1Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Group Reports Third Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestor.cava.com
- 2CAVA Group (CAVA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
- 3Cava Group Inc. (via Public) / Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending October 4, 2026 (Form 10-Q)ebs.publicnow.com
- 4CAVA’s Growth Story Keeps Building - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 5Cava Group, Inc. - CAVA Celebrates 500th Restaurant Milestoneinvestor.cava.com
- 6CAVA total restaurants in Q1 2027: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 7CAVA (CAVA) Restaurant Count by Quarter - Stocknearstocknear.com
- 8Compared to Estimates, Cava (CAVA) Q1 Earnings: A Look at Key Metricsfinance.yahoo.com
- 9CAVA Earnings Preview: Kalshi Traders Bet on Cyclospora Talk as Sales Recovery Faces Testbenzinga.com
- 10CAVA Stock Soars Overnight After Q2 Results: What’s Making Investors More Bullish? — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 11CAVA's Flat Earnings Forecast Suggests the Mediterranean Honeymoon Is Overbarchart.com
- 12CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Stock Quote & Options Analysis | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 13CAVA Stock Jumps on Q1 Beat, Guidance Liftedtrendspider.com
- 14https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/cava/earningstipranks.com
- 15CAVA Group (CAVA) Earnings Date, Estimates & Call Transcriptsmarketbeat.com
11. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXCAVA-26NOVREST-506: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXCAVA-26NOVREST-504: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXCAVA-26NOVREST-502: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXCAVA-26NOVCOMP-3: YES (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXCAVA-26NOVCOMP-4: NO (Nov 04, 2026)