McDonald's total systemwide restaurants in Q1 2027
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Count below 47,200 likely, driven by McDonald's revised 2028 total unit target.
- Inflationary development costs and a pressured consumer environment slow expansion pace.
- Kalshi market consensus for Q1 2027 aligns with slower net restaurant additions.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 47200 | 0.0% | 0.7% | Kalshi market consensus indicates the Q1 2027 restaurant count will be below 47,200. |
| Above 47300 | 0.0% | 0.6% | Kalshi market consensus indicates the Q1 2027 restaurant count will be below 47,200. |
| Above 47500 | 0.0% | 0.5% | Kalshi market consensus indicates the Q1 2027 restaurant count will be below 47,200. |
| Above 47700 | 0.0% | 0.4% | Kalshi market consensus indicates the Q1 2027 restaurant count will be below 47,200. |
| Above 47900 | 0.0% | 0.3% | Kalshi market consensus indicates the Q1 2027 restaurant count will be below 47,200. |
Current Context
Sources (19)
- 1mcd-20260331sec.gov
- 2McDonald’s Weighs Refranchising as Company-Operated Performance Lags - QSR Magazineqsrmagazine.com
- 3R24.htmsec.gov
- 4R12.htmsec.gov
- 5Documentsec.gov
- 6McDonald’s targeting approximately 2600 gross restaurant openings in 2026tipranks.com
- 7McDonald's Q2 2026 Results: U.S. Traffic Drops Due to Promotion Overload and Execution Issues - News and Statistics - IndexBoxindexbox.io
- 8[McDonald's Q2 2026 Earnings Call] McDonald's Blames 'Bad Trade' on Value as U.S. Comps Slip to 0.8% — CEO Insists 'We Don't Have a Strategy Problem'finance.biggo.com
- 9MCD Q2 Earnings Call Flags U.S. Execution Gaps - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
- 10MCD Q2 Earnings Call Flags U.S. Execution Gaps - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
- 11McDonald's says its value meals have become too complicated | Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 12McDonald's Q2 Results Reveal Pressured Consumer: Flat-to-Negative Traffic, Value Wars, and Negative July Compspro.edgex.exchange
- 13MCD Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Guidance & Transcript - Alpha Spreadalphaspread.com
- 14McDonald's outlines $8.5 billion plan to support franchisees | Reutersreuters.com
- 15McDonald's total systemwide restaurants next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 16McDONALD'S REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2026 RESULTS - Nov 4, 2026mcdonalds.mediaroom.com
- 17McDonald's (MCD) Q3 2026 earningscnbc.com
- 18McDonald's reaffirms plan for about 50000 restaurants by...seekingalpha.com
- 19MCD Earnings — Estimates, Results & Call Transcripts | Backpack Securitiesbackpack.exchange
2. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For each individual contract, a YES resolution occurs if McDonald's total systemwide restaurants for the specified "next quarter" is strictly above the stated numerical threshold (e.g., 47,200), and a NO resolution occurs if it is at or below the threshold. Trading for this market concludes on May 6, 7:00 am EDT. The maximum payout for contracts is scheduled for September 3, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 47200 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 47300 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 47500 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 47700 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 47900 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 48100 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 48300 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
McDonald's reported 46,028 total systemwide restaurants at June 30, 2026, following 45,699 at March 31, 2026 [1][2]. The company guides for approximately 2,100 net restaurant additions in FY2026, projecting roughly 47,456 restaurants by year-end 2026, and has delayed its 50,000-restaurant target from 2027 to 2028 [3][4][5][6][7]. A prediction market shows less than 1% probability for total systemwide restaurants exceeding 47,200, 47,300, or 47,500 in Q1 2027 [8][9], despite McDonald's NEXT strategy targeting nearly 2.5% contribution to systemwide sales growth from unit expansion in 2027 [10].
Sources (10)
- 1McDonald's Corporation (MCD) - Moat Analysis | Find My Moatfindmymoat.com
- 2McDonald’s Q1 2026 revenue rises 9% to $6.5B | MCD Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
- 3McDonald’s journey to 50,000 restaurants will take a bit longernrn.com
- 4McDonald's (MCDL) Q2 2026 Earnings Report - Results, Call & Slides - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
- 5[McDonald's Q2 2026 Earnings Call] McDonald's Blames 'Bad Trade' on Value as U.S. Comps Slip to 0.8% — CEO Insists 'We Don't Have a Strategy Problem'finance.biggo.com
- 6McDonald's Q2 Earnings Beat Puts U.S. Traffic and Margins in Focus — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 7https://www.tipranks.com/news/ratings/mcdonalds-buy-rating-reaffirmed-as-operational-improvements-drive-recovery-340-price-target-maintained-ratings-newstipranks.com
- 8McDonald's total systemwide restaurants next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 9McDonald's total systemwide restaurants next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
- 10McDonald's Advances NEXT Strategy to Become First...corporate.mcdonalds.com
3. How will McDonald's revised 50,000-unit timeline and potential refranchising of company-owned stores shape its net restaurant growth in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027?
| Revised Global Restaurant Target | 50,000 restaurants by 2028 (revised from 2027) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Total Systemwide Restaurants | 46,028 as of June 30, 2026 [5][6] |
| 2027 Net Restaurant Unit Growth Target | Nearly 4.5% [7] |
Sources (8)
- 1McDonald’s journey to 50,000 restaurants will take a bit longernrn.com
- 2Full Transcript: McDonald's Q2 2026 Earnings Callbenzinga.com
- 3McDonald's Refranchises Corporate Stores: Margins Fall Behind1851franchise.com
- 4[McDonald's Q1 2026 Earnings Call] Global Comps Rise 3.8%, but U.S. Company-Operated Margins Deemed 'Unacceptable' — Refranchising Review Underwayfinance.biggo.com
- 5McDonald's Q2 2026 earnings: $7.1B revenue | MCD Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
- 6McDonald's (MCD) Number of Stores — Quarterly & Annualopencapital.sh
- 7McDonald's (MCD) Transcript: Investor Day 2026stockanalysis.com
- 8McDonald's (MCD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
4. What quarterly net restaurant addition rate through Q1 2027 is implied by Kalshi market consensus, and how does this compare to McDonald's official 2026 guidance?
| Implied Quarterly Net Restaurant Additions | 525-590 (through Q1 2027) [1] |
|---|---|
| McDonald's 2026 Net Restaurant Target | 2,100 (full-year) [2][3][4] |
| Kalshi FY2026 Total Systemwide Restaurants Median | 47,470 (as of late October 2026) [1] |
Sources (10)
- 1McDonald's total restaurants in fiscal 2026: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 2McDonald's (MCD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 3McDonald's (MCD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript and Summary | Gloomgloom.sh
- 4McDonald's outlines plan for 2,500 gross openings and $3.7B capex as it targets a new U.S. value program in early 2027 (NYSE:MCD) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 5McDonald's (MCD) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 6mcd-20251231sec.gov
- 7McDonald's Q2 2026 earnings: $7.1B revenue | MCD Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
- 8MCD - McDonald's Corp Earnings Reports, Summaries & Call Transcripts | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 9McDonald's (MCD) Q1 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimatesfinance.yahoo.com
- 10McDonald's Corporation total systemwide restaurants in Q3 2026 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
5. How do the FY2026-FY2027 unit growth strategies and development pipelines of McDonald's and Yum! Brands compare, particularly in international markets?
| McDonald's 50,000-restaurant target completion | End of 2028 (adjusted from end of 2027) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Yum! Brands global restaurants (as of Q2 2026) | 64,166 [3][4][5][6] |
| McDonald's FY2026 net additions guidance | Approximately 2,100 [1][7] |
Sources (14)
- 1McDonald's (MCD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 2Documentsec.gov
- 3YUM! Brands Q4 Earnings Fall Short, Revenues Surpass Estimatesfinance.yahoo.com
- 4YUM 10-Q Filings - Yum! Brands, Inc. SEC 10-Qstocktitan.net
- 5Yum Brands revenue climbs as tax benefits lift EPS | YUM Quarterly Report (10-Q)stocktitan.net
- 6Yum says Taco Bell finding its footing after outbreak | LinkedInlinkedin.com
- 7McDonald's (MCD) Q1 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimatesfinance.yahoo.com
- 8[McDonald's Q2 2026 Earnings Call] McDonald's Blames 'Bad Trade' on Value as U.S. Comps Slip to 0.8% — CEO Insists 'We Don't Have a Strategy Problem'finance.biggo.com
- 9McDonald's (MCD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 10What is Growth Strategy and Future Prospects of McDonald's Company? – PortersFiveForce.comportersfiveforce.com
- 11McDonald's (MCD) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - AOLaol.com
- 12Yum! Brands at Barclays consumer conference: post-Pizza Hut growth push By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 13Company Descriptionstonegateinc.com
- 14Yum! Brands (YUM) FY 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
6. What is the specific SEC filing that will contain the Q1 2027 systemwide restaurant count for McDonald's, and what is the historical release timeline for this report?
| Target Restaurant Count | 50,000 by end of 2027 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2027 10-Q Release Expectation | Early to mid-May 2027 [1][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] |
| Location of Restaurant Count | 'Restaurant Information' table in 10-Q [1][2][3][4] |
Sources (12)
- 1MCDONALDS CORP Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026sec.gov
- 2R24.htmsec.gov
- 3https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390825000025/R24.htmsec.gov
- 4mcd-20260630sec.gov
- 5EDGAR Search Resultssec.gov
- 6McDonald's Corporation 10-Q Q1 2025 Quarterly Report | MCD | CapEdgecapedge.com
- 70000063908 25 000025sec.gov
- 8Mcdonalds Corp (MCD) 10-Q Quarterly Report May 2024last10k.com
- 9MCD 10-Q Quarterly Report Q1 FY2024 — Revenue, Net Income, EPSanalystlens.com
- 10mcd-20240331sec.gov
- 11https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390823000036/0000063908-23-000036.txtsec.gov
- 12EDGAR Search Resultssec.gov
7. How will projected trends in construction costs and consumer discretionary spending in late 2026 and early 2027 influence McDonald's pace of new restaurant development?
| McDonald's Global Restaurant Target (50,000) | 2028 [1] |
|---|---|
| Non-Residential Construction Cost Increase since 2020 | roughly 30% [2] |
| McDonald's Revised 2026 Gross Openings Target | 2,500 (down from 2,600) [3] |
Sources (8)
- 1McDonald’s journey to 50,000 restaurants will take a bit longernrn.com
- 2Restaurant resales fall in 2026; turnkey, franchise deals surge | Fast Casualfastcasual.com
- 3McDonald's (MCD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 4The Shrinking Restaurant: Why QSR's Biggest Chains Are Building Half-Sized Stores | QSR Proqsr.pro
- 5Earnings call transcript: McDonald’s Q1 2026 beats forecasts, stock rises By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 6State of the US Consumer: October 2026deloitte.com
- 7State of the Restaurant Industry Report: Data & Statisticsbusiness.bofa.com
- 8Retail | CBREcbre.com
8. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 03, 2027
- Closes: September 03, 2027
Sources (13)
- 1McDonald’s journey to 50,000 restaurants will take a bit longernrn.com
- 2McDonald's delays store expansion plansfinance.yahoo.com
- 3[McDonald's Q2 2026 Earnings Call] McDonald's Blames 'Bad Trade' on Value as U.S. Comps Slip to 0.8% — CEO Insists 'We Don't Have a Strategy Problem'finance.biggo.com
- 4McDonald's says its value meals have become too complicated | Longbridgelongbridge.com
- 5Chipotle pulls jalapenos and McDonald’s slows expansion as restaurant strain builds - WalletInvestor.comwalletinvestor.com
- 6McDonald's (MCD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 7Investor Overviewcorporate.mcdonalds.com
- 8McDonald's (MCD) Number of Stores — Quarterly & Annualopencapital.sh
- 9[MCD] McDonald's: Q3 2026 earnings preview on U.S. traffic and value menu fixes | drillrdrillr.ai
- 10mcd-20260331sec.gov
- 11McDonald's outlines plan for 2,500 gross openings and $3.7B capex as it targets a new U.S. value program in early 2027 (NYSE:MCD) | Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
- 12McDonald's Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Wait for Now?finance.yahoo.com
- 13Earnings Preview | McDonald's reports before Wednesday's US open — US same-store sales are the first test | Longbridgelongbridge.com