Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Marriott International's total rooms in Q2 2026 will be above 1.805 million.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The price for this market has remained completely static at a 93.0% probability since its inception. There have been no price movements of any kind, resulting in a flat trend line. The absence of price fluctuations means there are no significant spikes, drops, or identifiable support and resistance levels to analyze.
The lack of price action is directly attributable to zero trading volume. With no contracts traded, the market's price reflects only its initial listing probability and not an active consensus formed through buying and selling. This indicates an illiquid market where the opening sentiment has not been challenged or confirmed by participants. The 93.0% probability suggests a strong initial market expectation that Marriott's total room count in Q2 2026 will exceed the 1,805,000 threshold, likely based on the Q1 2026 figure of nearly 1,796,000 rooms and an assumed growth trajectory. However, without any trading activity, this price cannot be interpreted as a reflection of current market conviction.
  • Since last update (~24h): The model's probability for "Above 1.805 million" rose by +3.0pp, widening the edge.
  • Overall, the model's headline probability gained +3.0pp, while the market remained flat.
  • Marriott's Q2 rooms are very likely above 1.805 million from Q1 data and guidance.
  • The projected Q2 room count appears entirely above 1.815 million.
  • Reaching 1.82 million rooms or more appears unlikely per current projections.

Current Context

Marriott's Q2 2026 room total is currently unavailable. Marriott International's total room count for Q2 2026 has not yet been published [1]. The company has scheduled its Q2 2026 earnings release for August 3, 2026 [1]. As of its Q1 2026 financial report, ending March 31, 2026, Marriott operated a global system comprising over 9,900 properties and nearly 1,796,000 rooms worldwide [2][3]. A June 11, 2026 company release stated Marriott had reached 10,000 properties globally, but it did not provide an updated Q2 2026 room total [4].
Q1 additions and pipeline suggest continued network expansion. In Q1 2026, Marriott added approximately 15,900 net rooms, with roughly 7,500 net rooms in international markets [2]. The company's development pipeline stood at nearly 618,000 rooms at Q1 2026 quarter-end [2]. Marriott projects full-year 2026 net rooms growth to be between 4.5 percent and 5.0 percent [4][2]. Prediction markets for Marriott's Q2 2026 total rooms indicate expectations exceeding 1.81 million [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  2. 2Marriott International Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Marriott Internationalmarriott.gcs-web.com
  3. 3MAR-2026.Q1-EX99Earnings Releasemarriott.gcs-web.com
  4. 4Form 10-Q for Marriott International INC MD filed 05/06/2026marriott.gcs-web.com
  5. 5Marriott International total rooms in Q2kalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves 'Yes' if Marriott International reports more than 1,815,000 total rooms in Q2 2026, as verified by Fiscal.ai; otherwise, it resolves 'No'. The market opened on May 21, 2026, and will close either when the outcome occurs or by September 3, 2026, at 7:00 am EDT at the latest, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading is prohibited for persons employed by source agencies or holding material, non-public information.

Market Discussion

Marriott International reported a global system totaling nearly 1,796,000 rooms as of March 31, 2026 [1][2][3]. The company forecasts full-year 2026 net rooms growth of 4.5% to 5.0%, with its Q2 2026 financial report expected around August 4, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Prediction markets are tracking Marriott's total rooms as a key performance indicator, with some market contracts setting Q2 2026 thresholds at levels such as 1.81 million rooms [5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1Marriott International Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Marriott Internationalmarriott.gcs-web.com
  2. 2Form 10-Q for Marriott International INC MD filed 05/06/2026marriott.gcs-web.com
  3. 3MAR-2026.Q1-EX99Earnings Releasemarriott.gcs-web.com
  4. 4Marriott International (MAR) First Quarter 2026 Earnings Recap: Strong RevPAR Growth and Record Pipelinetickeron.com
  5. 5Marriott International total rooms in Q2kalshi.com

4. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Jul 14, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality2
Poor
Liquidity
1

5 contracts · worst first

Above 1.82 million1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 1.815 million2
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 1.805 million—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 1.81 million—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Above 1.825 million—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

5 contracts · worst first

Above 1.805 million—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 1.81 million—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 1.815 million—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.04 log-odds, 1.0c, vol 44

Above 1.82 million—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.38 log-odds, 6.0c, vol 41

Above 1.825 million—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

5 contracts · worst first

Above 1.805 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 1.81 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 1.815 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 1.82 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 1.825 million100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 14, 2026

5. How does Marriott's projected net rooms growth for 2026 compare to that of its key competitor, Hilton Worldwide?

Marriott 2026 Net Rooms Growth4.5% to 5.0% (full year 2026) [1][2][3][4][5]
Hilton 2026 Net Unit Growth6.0% to 7.0% (full year 2026) [6][7][8][9]
Growth Comparison (2026)Marriott's projection is lower than Hilton's [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
Marriott International projects net rooms growth between 4.5% and 5.0% for 2026. Marriott International anticipates its net rooms growth for the full year 2026 to fall within the range of 4.5% to 5.0% [1][2][3][4][5].
Hilton Worldwide forecasts higher net unit growth than Marriott for 2026. In contrast, Hilton Worldwide's projected net unit growth for the full year 2026 is higher, estimated at 6.0% to 7.0% [6][7][8][9]. This indicates that Marriott International's anticipated net rooms growth for 2026 is lower when compared to Hilton Worldwide's projected net unit growth for the same period [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2MAR-2025.Q4-EX99Earnings Releasemarriott.gcs-web.com
  3. 3mar-20251231sec.gov
  4. 4MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, INC.marriott.gcs-web.com
  5. 5Marriott International Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Marriott Internationalmarriott.gcs-web.com
  6. 6Q1 2026 Earnings Releaseir.hilton.com
  7. 7Press release of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., datedsec.gov
  8. 8Hilton Delivers Strong 6.7% Net Unit Growth in 2025...stories.hilton.com
  9. 9Hilton Reports First Quarter Results; Raises Full Year Outlookstories-editor.hilton.com

6. Based on its Q1 2026 development pipeline of nearly 618,000 rooms, what is the expected conversion rate to new rooms for the remainder of 2026?

Development Pipeline (Q1 2026)Nearly 618,000 rooms [1][2]
Pipeline Rooms Under Construction43% [1][2]
Expected Net Rooms Growth (2026)Approximately 4.5% to 5.0% [1]
Marriott does not disclose a specific numerical pipeline conversion rate. It is therefore impossible to determine the expected conversion rate from its Q1 2026 development pipeline to new rooms for the remainder of 2026 based on the available information [3]. As of the end of Q1 2026, Marriott's development pipeline reached a record of nearly 618,000 rooms, with 43% of these rooms identified as under construction [1][2].
Conversions significantly contribute to Marriott's growth and expansion strategy. In the recent quarter, conversions represented over 35% of signings and more than 40% of openings [3]. For the full year 2026, Marriott anticipates net rooms growth of approximately 4.5% to 5.0%, a projection that already accounts for typical room deletions of 1% to 1.5% [1].
Sources (3)
  1. 1mar-20260331sec.gov
  2. 2Marriott International Inc (MAR) 8-K Earnings Release - May 2026last10k.com
  3. 3Marriott International (MAR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com

7. What is the consensus among financial analysts for Marriott's total rooms at the end of Q2 2026, based on reports issued after the Q1 2026 earnings call?

Total rooms Q1 2026Approximately 1,796,000 rooms [1][2][3]
Full-year 2026 net rooms growth guidance (low)4.5% [1][2][3]
Full-year 2026 net rooms growth guidance (high)5% [1][2][3]
Financial analysts generally do not forecast Marriott's exact Q2 2026 room count [1][2][3]. Instead, their consensus reports for the second quarter of 2026 predominantly concentrate on key financial metrics. These typically include revenue, earnings per share (EPS), and EBITDA [1][2][3].
Marriott's global system comprised approximately 1,796,000 rooms at Q1 2026 close [1][2][3]. Following its first-quarter 2026 earnings call, Marriott International reaffirmed its guidance for full-year 2026 net rooms growth. The company projects this growth to be in the range of 4.5% to 5% [1][2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Marriott International Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | Marriott Internationalmarriott.gcs-web.com
  2. 2MAR-2026.Q1-EX99Earnings Releasemarriott.gcs-web.com
  3. 3Marriott (MAR) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com

8. When and where will Marriott International officially publish its Q2 2026 earnings report containing the definitive total room count?

Q2 2026 Earnings Report DateMonday, August 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
Report Publication TimeApproximately 7:00 a.m. ET [1][3][4][5][6][7]
Earnings Conference Call Time8:30 a.m. ET [1][3][4][5][6][7]
Marriott International will publish its Q2 2026 earnings report on Monday, August 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. This official publication is expected to include the definitive total room count for the second quarter of 2026 [1][2].
The earnings report will be available on Marriott International's Investor Relations website at marriott.com/investor [1][3][4][5][6][7]. The report's publication is anticipated to occur around 7:00 a.m. ET [1][3][4][5][6][7]. Following its release, an earnings conference call is scheduled to commence at 8:30 a.m. ET [1][3][4][5][6][7]. Both the official earnings report and the webcast of the conference call will be accessible via the Marriott Investor Relations site [1][3][4][5][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Marriott International Announces Release Date For Second Quarter 2026 EarningsOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  2. 2Marriott sets Aug. 3 date for Q2 2026 earnings call | MAR Stock Newsstocktitan.net
  3. 3www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  4. 4www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  5. 5www.globenewswire.comOctagon Agentglobenewswire.com
  6. 6www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com
  7. 7www.prnewswire.comOctagon Agentprnewswire.com

9. Which geographic segments, such as U.S./Canada versus international, are projected to be the primary drivers of Marriott's room growth in 2026?

Projected 2026 Net Rooms Growth4.5% to 5.0% (Marriott International Full-Year 2026 Projections) [1][2][3][4][5]
Total Rooms in Development Pipeline (Q1 2026)Nearly 618,000 rooms (Marriott International Q1 2026 Financial Results) [4][5]
Q1 2026 International Net Rooms AddedApproximately 7,500 rooms (Marriott International Q1 2026 Financial Results) [5]
International markets are key to Marriott's projected 2026 room growth. Marriott anticipates a full-year 2026 net rooms growth of between 4.5% and 5.0%, with international markets identified as a primary strategic driver for this expansion [1][2][3][4][5]. This emphasis on global growth underscores its significance in the company's future strategy.
Marriott's development pipeline heavily favors international expansion. As of the end of Q1 2026, the company's development pipeline included nearly 618,000 rooms, with over half of these rooms located outside the U.S. and Canada [4][5]. This significant international presence within the pipeline highlights a sustained focus on expanding Marriott's global footprint.
International markets significantly contributed to Q1 2026 net room additions. In Q1 2026, international markets contributed approximately 7,500 net rooms. This amount accounted for a substantial portion of the roughly 15,900 total net rooms added globally during that quarter [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Documentsec.gov
  2. 2Marriott (MAR) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  3. 3Marriott (MAR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  4. 4Form 10-Q for Marriott International INC MD filed 05/06/2026marriott.gcs-web.com
  5. 5MAR-2026.Q1-EX99Earnings Releasemarriott.gcs-web.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Bullish catalysts for Marriott International in 2026 include the potential for material fee uplift from credit card renegotiations with Visa, Chase, and American Express, expected to close later in the year [1]. Consistent net room growth from the company's development pipeline also contributes to a positive outlook [1]. As of March 31, 2026, Marriott's total room count was 1,795,808 [2]. Full-year 2026 net rooms growth guidance is approximately 4.5% to 5.0% [2].
Conversely, bearish catalysts for 2026 involve regional headwinds in the Middle East, which are expected to cause significant Q2 RevPAR declines [1][3]. Potential regulatory scrutiny regarding hotel data-sharing practices in the UK and Europe also poses a risk [1]. Marriott International is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2026 earnings on August 4, 2026 [4][5][6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 03, 2026
  • Closes: September 03, 2026
Sources (6)
  1. 1Marriott Stock Runs 20% in Under Six Months: Is the Fee Revenue Story Already Priced In at $377? | TIKR.comtikr.com
  2. 2Form 10-Q for Marriott International INC MD filed 05/06/2026marriott.gcs-web.com
  3. 3Marriott Stock Rises After Q1 2026 Earnings Beat: What the Numbers Say About Where MAR Goes From Here | TIKR.comtikr.com
  4. 4Marriott International Announces Release Date For Second Quarter 2026 Earningsprnewswire.com
  5. 5Marriott International (MAR) Earnings Date and Reports 2026marketbeat.com
  6. 6Marriott International (MAR) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reportstipranks.com