Palantir total customers in Q2
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~24h): For "Above 1080" customers, our model increased +3.1pp, flipping the edge (model_led).
- Model conviction for "Above 1070" rose +7.6pp, compressing the edge with no market shift.
- Model's probability for "Above 1060" increased +7.6pp, compressing the edge as market moved +7.0pp.
- Broader probabilities for customer counts above 1075, 1090, and 1100 saw model-led increases.
- Total customers above 1040 appears highly likely from announced Q2 contracts.
- Q1 2026 customer growth of 6% suggests a strong sequential Q2.
- Thresholds above 1065 are more probable given confirmed Q2 expansions.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1060 | 87.0% | 85.2% | Market higher by 1.8pp |
| Above 1100 | 6.0% | 6.4% | Model higher by 0.4pp |
| Above 1090 | 12.0% | 12.4% | Model higher by 0.4pp |
| Above 1070 | 45.0% | 42.1% | Market higher by 2.9pp |
| Above 1050 | 93.0% | 91.9% | Market higher by 1.1pp |
Current Context
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 1060
📉 July 10, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 89.0% to 80.0%
📈 July 09, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 76.0% to 89.0%
📉 July 07, 2026: 20.0pp drop
Price decreased from 96.0% to 76.0%
📈 July 01, 2026: 45.0pp spike
Price increased from 51.0% to 96.0%
Outcome: Above 1040
📈 July 03, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 86.0% to 99.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Palantir Technologies Inc. reports above 1070 total customers in Q2 2026, and NO if it reports 1070 or fewer. The outcome will be verified by Fiscal.ai. The market, which opened on May 20, 2026, will close and expire early if the event occurs, or by September 2, 2026, at 4:00pm EDT otherwise, with a projected payout 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1040 | $1.00 | $0.04 | 99% |
| Above 1050 | $0.98 | $0.08 | 93% |
| Above 1060 | $0.87 | $0.19 | 87% |
| Above 1065 | $0.66 | $0.39 | 66% |
| Above 1070 | $0.45 | $0.60 | 45% |
| Above 1075 | $0.33 | $0.72 | 29% |
| Above 1090 | $0.12 | $0.94 | 12% |
| Above 1080 | $0.14 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Above 1100 | $0.07 | $0.97 | 6% |
Market Discussion
Palantir announced a total customer count of 1,007 for Q1 2026 on May 4, 2026, representing a 31% year-over-year and 6% sequential increase [^][^]. As of July 14, 2026, Q2 2026 financial results have not yet been released, though the company provided Q2 revenue guidance of $1.797 billion to $1.801 billion [^][^][^]. Prior prediction markets successfully forecast Palantir's Q1 2026 customer count exceeding 960, with implied probabilities reaching 96.9%-100% [^][^].
5. What is the range of analyst estimates for Palantir's total customer count in Q2 2026?
| Q2 2026 Customer Count Estimates | Not widely reported [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Revenue Guidance | $1.797B–$1.801B [^][^] |
| Q1 2026 Total Customer Count | 1,007 [^][^] |
6. What major new contracts or expansions related to Palantir's AI Platform (AIP) were announced in Q2 2026?
| Wheels Up Contract Value | Up to $12 million over two years with a third-year option [^] [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| NVIDIA Strategic AI Initiative Date | June 29, 2026 [^] [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| McCarthy AIP Partnership Date | June 4, 2026 [^] [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
7. How does Palantir's recent customer growth rate compare to that of key data platform competitor Snowflake?
| Palantir Total Customer Count YoY Increase | 31% (Q1 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Snowflake Net New Customers Added | 616 (Q1 CY2026) [^][^] |
| Palantir Revenue Growth YoY | 85% (Q1 2026) [^][^] |
8. What has been the historical trend in Palantir's government versus commercial customer count leading into Q2 2026?
| Total Customer Count | 1,007 (Q1 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| U.S. Commercial Customers | 615 (Q1 2026) [^][^] |
| U.S. Commercial Customer Growth YOY | 42% (Q1 2026) [^] |
9. Based on macroeconomic indicators from Q2 2026, what is the outlook for enterprise IT and data analytics spending?
| Projected GDP Growth | 2.0% to 2.2% (Q2 2026) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Hyperscaler CapEx | ~$760 billion [^] |
| Palantir Q2 2026 Customer Forecast | Above 1020 [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 02, 2026
- Closes: September 02, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Palantir Technologies is scheduled to release its second quarter 2026 financial results on Monday, August 3, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The company's Q2 2026 guidance projects revenue between $1.797 billion and $1.801 billion, with adjusted income from operations expected between $1.063 billion and $1.067 billion [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Palantir reported 1,007 total customers in Q1 2026, representing 31% year-over-year growth [^] .
- Trigger: Q2 total customer figures remain undisclosed and will be included in the upcoming August 3rd report [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.