Vail Resorts skier visits in Q3

Vail Resorts reported strong Epic Pass unit sales growth for 2025/2026. According to the company's December 2025 earnings report, Epic Pass unit sales for the 2025/2026 season increased by approximately 9% year-over-year, based on sales through December 2, 2025. During the same period, the associated pass sales revenue experienced an approximate 13% increase ^[1].

This recent growth surpassed the previous season's sales increase. For the 2024/2025 season, Epic Pass unit sales had grown by approximately 7% year-over-year through December 2, 2024, with pass sales revenue increasing by approximately 11% ^[2]. The 9% unit sales growth observed for the 2025/2026 season therefore reflects a continued positive trend for the Epic Pass program, exceeding the prior season's performance ^[1].

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicts a high likelihood of La Niña for early 2026. The consensus forecast indicates a high probability of La Niña conditions for the January-March 2026 period ^[1]. An October 2025 forecast specifically projects a La Niña pattern will influence the 2025-26 winter season ^[2]. Official CPC products will provide detailed diagnostic discussions and specific probabilities for this timeframe ^[1]. This broader ENSO outlook is also consistent with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) January 2026 Quick Look ^[4].

La Niña historically correlates with above-average snowfall for Colorado resorts. Historically, La Niña patterns are generally associated with above-average snowfall for Colorado ski resorts, including Vail ^[2]. This condition typically influences atmospheric patterns by directing more moisture and cooler temperatures toward Colorado, creating favorable conditions for increased winter snowfall ^[2]. While specific winter forecasts for Vail consider general ENSO trends for each season, the La Niña pattern has consistently favored enhanced snowfall in the Colorado mountains ^[5].

Lake Tahoe resorts often experience below-average snowfall during La Niña. Conversely, for Lake Tahoe resorts, such as Palisades Tahoe, La Niña conditions typically result in below-average snowfall ^[3]. Under a La Niña, storm tracks tend to shift northward, decreasing the frequency and intensity of significant storms reaching the Sierra Nevada range, which impacts the Lake Tahoe area ^[3]. This often leads to drier and warmer conditions for the region compared to its average during a La Niña winter ^[3].

Alterra Mountain Company's Ikon Pass has enhanced its offering at Arapahoe Basin for the 2025/2026 season, directly impacting competition in Colorado. For the upcoming winter, Arapahoe Basin (A-Basin) in Colorado, an existing Ikon Pass partner, will provide full Ikon Pass holders with unlimited access and no blackout dates ^[1]. This is a significant upgrade from the previous offering of 7 days of access, which included blackout dates ^[2]. This expanded access strengthens A-Basin's competitive position against Vail-owned resorts such as Breckenridge and Keystone in the critical Colorado market, offering Ikon Pass holders a more appealing option for frequent, unrestricted skiing ^[1].

No other major Ikon Pass changes directly challenge Vail in key markets. While other updates have been announced for the 2025/2026 Ikon Pass season, no major ski resorts in the Colorado, Utah, or Tahoe regions were explicitly added or removed that would directly impact competition with Vail Resorts ^[3]. New partners for the pass include Ischgl in Austria and several smaller resorts across the Eastern U.S. and Midwest ^[3]. Conversely, Windham Mountain Club in New York will no longer be an Ikon Pass partner ^[3]. These particular updates do not meet the specified criteria of affecting competition with Vail's prominent resorts in the designated major regional markets.

According to forward-looking airline booking data as of January 2026, inbound international passenger volume is projected to show varied year-over-year changes for February and March 2026, with increases at Denver and Vancouver, and declines at Salt Lake City. Denver International Airport (DEN) anticipates growth, with a 3% increase in inbound international passengers in February 2026 compared to February 2025 ^[1], followed by a 4% increase in March 2026 compared to March 2025 ^[3].

Salt Lake City International Airport (SLC) is expected to experience slight decreases in inbound international passenger volume during these months. For February 2026, SLC is projected to see a 1% year-over-year decrease ^[1], with a further 2% decrease expected for March 2026 compared to the previous year ^[3].

Vancouver International Airport (YVR) forecasts positive growth in international inbound passenger traffic for early 2026. YVR is projected to experience a 5% increase in international inbound passenger volume for February 2026 compared to February 2025 ^[2]. This upward trend is anticipated to continue into March 2026, with preliminary data indicating a 6% year-over-year increase in international arrivals at YVR for that month ^[4].

Vail Resorts invested substantially in 2025 for 2025/2026 season improvements. Approximately $254 million was invested in resort improvements and upgrades completed in Summer 2025 for the 2025/2026 ski season across Vail Resorts' portfolio ^[1]. These significant capital improvements primarily focused on major lift upgrades at key destinations such as Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, Keystone, and Whistler Blackcomb, alongside enhancements at Kirkwood. The publicly stated goals for these investments were to significantly increase uphill capacity, reduce lift wait times, and improve guest flow, thereby elevating the overall skier experience ^[2].

Several resorts received new high-speed and fixed-grip lift upgrades. Key projects included replacing the Game Creek Express at Vail Mountain with a new six-person high-speed lift, which is projected to increase uphill capacity by 25% ^[2]. Breckenridge upgraded its Rip's Ride quad to a new high-speed six-person lift, enhancing the guest experience on beginner and intermediate terrain ^[2]. Keystone Resort's Peru Express was replaced with a new high-speed six-person lift, expected to boost capacity by over 25% ^[2]. Whistler Blackcomb also enhanced its infrastructure by replacing the Jersey Cream Express quad with a new high-speed six-person lift, increasing capacity by nearly 30% ^[2]. Additionally, Kirkwood saw upgrades with new fixed-grip quads replacing its Caples and Sunrise triple lifts, improving efficiency and skier flow in those areas ^[2].