What countries will Trump visit in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect China to be among the countries Trump visits in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This prediction market has exhibited a sideways trading pattern, with the probability of a Trump visit to Israel in 2026 oscillating within a 14-point range between 35% and 49%. The market is currently priced at 44%, very close to its starting price of 45%, indicating no clear long-term trend or consensus. Despite this overall stability, the chart shows significant short-term volatility. Most notably, the market experienced three consecutive 8-percentage-point swings in late May. The price dropped from 44% to 36% on May 23, spiked back to 44% on May 24, and then fell again to 36% on May 25 before recovering.
The sharp price movements appear to be highly sensitive to news related to regional diplomacy. The drop on May 23 was likely driven by reports that President Trump was expected to announce a peace deal related to the Iran conflict, which may have reduced the perceived need for a direct visit. Conversely, the spike the following day was likely a reaction to news that representatives of a Trump-backed board were planning to visit the Gaza Strip, suggesting heightened U.S. engagement in the region. The subsequent drop on May 25 does not have a clear catalyst based on the available information.
The total volume of 1,380 contracts suggests moderate but not exceptionally high trading activity, and the volatility on low volume could indicate that a small number of traders can significantly influence the price. The chart's price action has established an apparent support level around the 35-36% mark, where prices have repeatedly bounced from, and a resistance level in the high 40s. Overall, the market sentiment reflects significant uncertainty. Traders see the visit as a near-even proposition, with sentiment shifting rapidly based on specific geopolitical developments rather than a long-term conviction.
- President Trump completed visits to Switzerland and China earlier in 2026.
- Scheduled 2026 travel includes G7 summit in France and NATO summit in Turkey.
- A 2026 presidential visit to China is a top strategic priority.
- Diplomatic negotiations likely drive potential 2026 visits to Israel or Saudi Arabia.
- Renewed US-China stability influences 2026 ASEAN Summit decision in Philippines.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 75.0% | 79.3% | Trump may visit Turkey to discuss regional security or NATO cooperation. |
| Taiwan | 8.5% | 3.3% | Trump might visit Taiwan to address geopolitical alliances or economic partnerships. |
| Cuba | 16.0% | 7.5% | Trump might visit Cuba to discuss bilateral relations or future policy changes. |
| Israel | 44.0% | 31.0% | Trump may visit Israel for discussions on regional stability or peace initiatives. |
| Japan | 33.0% | 20.4% | Trump may visit Japan for talks on economic ties, security, or Indo-Pacific strategy. |
Current Context
Trump's 2026 itinerary includes confirmed and potential major summits. He is confirmed to attend the 2026 NATO Summit hosted in Ankara, Turkey [1]. A significant foreign policy priority involves engagement with China, with a visit focused on trade, strategic discussions, and artificial intelligence [2][3][4][5]. This engagement is considered crucial for addressing issues such as trade, Taiwan, and the Iran conflict, with expectations for establishing deeper cooperation frameworks [3][6][7][4][5]. Experts indicate this focus on China is a major objective for presidential diplomacy, even over traditional allies [3][7]. Other potential visits include France, listed as a possible host for the G7 summit around June 15-17, although specific host confirmation is pending [1]. Speculation also surrounds Trump's attendance at the ASEAN summit in October 2026, which the Philippines is scheduled to host; however, this trip is not guaranteed and depends on personal incentives and US-China relations [8][9].
Beyond scheduled summits, foreign policy drives other potential destinations. Trump's foreign policy consistently prioritizes strong bilateral ties with Israel, and ongoing Middle East conflicts could prompt a visit to the region [10]. A potential visit to Russia has also been noted, sparking concern among European nations [11]. The second Trump administration's broader foreign policy is characterized by an "America First" approach, described as imperialist and expansionist in the Americas, isolationist in Europe, and interventionist in the Middle East [10]. This policy includes a continued trade war with China, a strong pro-Israel stance, and a past expressed desire to annex Greenland, which has raised concerns regarding its impact on NATO [12][10][13][14]. The administration has also been observed withdrawing from international organizations and emphasizing hard power over soft power [12][10].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 May 25, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 44.0% to 36.0%
Outcome: Israel
What happened: The provided web research does not contain any specific social media activity, traditional news, or official announcements on or immediately preceding May 25, 2026, related to Donald Trump's potential visit to Israel that would explain an 8.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market. While President Trump's state visit to China concluded on May 15, 2026 [1][2], there is no direct evidence linking this event to a decreased likelihood of an Israel visit by May 25, 2026. Therefore, a primary driver for this specific price movement cannot be identified from the given sources. Social media activity appears to be irrelevant as no pertinent posts or narratives were found.
📈 May 24, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 36.0% to 44.0%
Outcome: Israel
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price spike for "Israel" on May 24, 2026, was likely traditional news concerning heightened Trump-affiliated engagement in the region. Representatives of a Trump-backed Board of Peace were expected to visit the Gaza Strip in the coming days as of May 27, 2026 [3]. This imminent activity coincided with the market movement, suggesting that investors interpreted the high-level delegation as increasing the probability of a personal visit by Trump, building on prior reports of him considering an April 2026 visit to Israel for an award [4][5][6]. Social media activity was irrelevant as no correlating posts from key figures or viral narratives were identified.
📉 May 23, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 44.0% to 36.0%
Outcome: Israel
What happened: The primary driver for the 8.0 percentage point drop in the "Israel" outcome on May 23, 2026, appears to be traditional news surrounding a potential peace deal. On that day, it was reported that President Trump was expected to announce a "largely negotiated" peace deal concerning the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz [7][8]. This significant development in Middle East diplomacy likely reduced the perceived strategic necessity or priority for a presidential visit to Israel. No specific social media activity was identified in the provided research, making this major foreign policy announcement the most significant discernible factor.
Sources (8)
- 1wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
- 2wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
- 3aa.com.tr
- 4jpost.com
- 5brookings.edu
- 6youtube.com
- 7BREAKING UPDATE: Trump to announce peace deal to de-nuclearize Iran, open Strait of Hormuz | The Post Millennial | thepostmillennial.comthepostmillennial.com
- 8Trump says deal to end Iran war is ‘largely negotiated’ — but one key issue remains unresolved - AOLaol.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and is present within Israel's geographic boundaries between the market's issuance (December 2, 2025) and January 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST; otherwise, it resolves to No. Physical presence is strictly defined, excluding flyovers, airport layovers, virtual appearances, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds, and verifiable evidence from specified news and official sources is required. The market closes early if a visit occurs, or by January 1, 2027, at 10:00 AM EST, with payouts 30 minutes after closing; insider trading is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | $0.97 | $0.03 | 97% |
| Turkey | $0.75 | $0.28 | 75% |
| Germany | $0.54 | $0.71 | 48% |
| Israel | $0.43 | $0.61 | 44% |
| Saudi Arabia | $0.43 | $0.62 | 43% |
| Japan | $0.39 | $0.66 | 33% |
| Canada | $0.33 | $0.70 | 30% |
| India | $0.29 | $0.74 | 29% |
| Italy | $0.28 | $0.73 | 28% |
| Poland | $0.27 | $0.77 | 27% |
| Pakistan | $0.22 | $0.82 | 22% |
| Qatar | $0.22 | $0.79 | 22% |
| Mexico | $0.24 | $0.81 | 18% |
| Cuba | $0.18 | $0.84 | 16% |
| Ukraine | $0.18 | $0.87 | 16% |
| North Korea | $0.14 | $0.91 | 14% |
| Hungary | $0.12 | $0.91 | 13% |
| Venezuela | $0.17 | $0.87 | 13% |
| Russia | $0.15 | $0.89 | 12% |
| Vatican City | $0.13 | $0.91 | 12% |
| Denmark | $0.13 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Taiwan | $0.09 | $0.95 | 9% |
| Palestine | $0.06 | $0.98 | 6% |
Market Discussion
Traders are offering predictions for specific countries Donald Trump might visit in 2026, with some providing brief reasoning. Arguments for a "Yes" include the belief that Trump will visit Israel as an important ally. A key "No" argument for Palestine centers on the U.S. government's non-recognition of Palestine as a country, suggesting Kalshi would likely not resolve a visit there as "Yes."
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score77Good
Market integrity is low (64), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score68Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What specific Middle East events in 2026 could necessitate a presidential visit to Israel or Saudi Arabia?
| Probability of 2026 Trump visit to Israel | 49-54% (May 2026 prediction markets) [1] |
|---|---|
| Probability of 2026 Trump visit to Saudi Arabia | 38-42% (May 2026 prediction markets) [1] |
| Countries targeted for Abraham Accords expansion | Eight Muslim-majority countries [2][3][4] |
President Donald Trump's potential visits to Israel and Saudi Arabia in 2026 are primarily driven by complex diplomatic negotiations. As of May 2026, President Trump is actively working toward a settlement for the war with Iran [1][2][3][4]. A key condition for this deal is that eight Muslim-majority countries—specifically Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan—agree to sign onto the Abraham Accords [2][3][4]. A significant obstacle exists with Saudi Arabia, which has formally stated it will not join the Abraham Accords without an irreversible pathway toward Palestinian statehood [5][4]. A major breakthrough in this diplomatic impasse or the successful conclusion of these broader negotiations would likely necessitate a presidential visit [5][4][2].
Furthermore, finalization of Iran-related agreements could also necessitate a presidential trip. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are reviewing draft memorandums concerning the Iran conflict, including discussions about the status of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. Market indicators have shown a spike regarding a potential resolution for a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump announcing its reopening amidst US-Iran tensions [6]. Finalizing these memorandums or any further significant developments related to the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran conflict could also prompt a visit to Israel [3][6]. Prediction markets as of late May 2026 suggest a moderate probability of a 2026 presidential visit by Trump to Israel (approximately 49-54%) and to Saudi Arabia (approximately 38-42%), reflecting the ongoing uncertainties of these diplomatic efforts [1].
Sources (6)
- 1Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?probsee.com
- 2Trump Demands Six Muslim-Majority Countries Sign Abraham Accords as Precondition for an Iran Deal - Vision Timesvisiontimes.com
- 3Trump sent Netanyahu, regional leaders draft agreement with Iranisraelhayom.com
- 4Trump demands Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkiye, Egypt and Jordan sign Abraham Accords as part of Iran peace deal: Saudi Arabia links normalising ties with Israel to Palestinian statehoodthenews.pk
- 5MBS Told a Trump Ally He'd Recognize Israel 'Today'houseofsaud.com
- 6Trump announces Strait of Hormuz reopening amid US-Iran tensionscryptobriefing.com
7. What official confirmations and diplomatic schedules support Trump's planned attendance at the 2026 NATO Summit in Turkey?
| NATO Summit Location | Ankara, Turkey [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| NATO Summit Dates | July 7-8, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
| Likelihood of Trump's Attendance | High probability as of May 2026 [7] |
President Trump is highly anticipated to attend the 2026 NATO Summit. This event is scheduled for July 7-8, 2026, in Ankara, Turkey, and is the 36th NATO summit, marking Turkey's second time hosting [1][2][3][4][5][6]. As the 47th U.S. President, following his victory in the 2024 election and inauguration on January 20, 2025, his participation as president is relevant to this international gathering [8][9][10].
Diplomatic exchanges affirm President Trump's expected presence at the summit. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan extended an invitation to President Trump in September 2025, encompassing both a bilateral visit and participation in the NATO Summit [11]. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan described the discussions between Erdogan and Trump as "friendly, positive and constructive" [11]. Fidan further reiterated Turkey's expectation of Trump's attendance in April 2026, noting Trump's "personal respect" for Erdogan, while also acknowledging some reported reluctance from Trump [12]. A Wikipedia entry detailing presidential trips for Donald Trump in 2026 explicitly corroborates his planned attendance at the Ankara NATO summit [6].
8. How does the strategic priority of a 2026 presidential visit to China compare with potential visits to European allies like France or Germany?
| China Visit Priority | More immediate strategic priority than Europe [1] |
|---|---|
| Top US Strategic Objective | Deterring China, alongside homeland defense [2][3] |
| Europe's Strategic Position | Secondary to homeland defense and deterring China [4][2][3][5] |
A 2026 presidential visit to China is a top strategic priority. Such a visit would likely be considered a more immediate strategic priority for the U.S. compared to potential visits to European allies like France or Germany [1]. This prioritization stems from the explicit identification of deterring China as a top strategic objective for the U.S., alongside homeland defense, in potential future defense strategies [2][3]. The aim of such a visit would be to manage the complex and often tense bilateral relationship, addressing critical issues such as trade imbalances, intellectual property, Taiwan, and maritime disputes in the South China Sea, as part of the broader U.S.-China strategic competition [6][1][7][8]. Additionally, there is an objective to seek a "constructive relationship of strategic stability" to prevent conflicts [9].
European visits would reinforce alliances with a secondary strategic focus. In contrast, potential presidential visits to France or Germany in 2026 would primarily focus on reinforcing the transatlantic alliance and emphasizing burden-sharing [4][2][3][10]. While Europe remains a vital partner with shared democratic values and strong economic ties, a potential future U.S. National Defense Strategy positions Europe as secondary to the priorities of homeland defense and deterring China [4][2][3][5]. The U.S. would likely encourage European allies to assume greater responsibility for their own conventional defense, particularly against threats from Russia, and to align on economic and technological policies related to countering China [2][3][10][11].
Alliances are recalibrating, emphasizing European self-sufficiency in defense. These visits would be crucial for maintaining essential alliances and coordinating global challenges; however, the dynamic would involve recalibrating partnerships with a strong emphasis on European self-sufficiency in defense [3][12][13]. European leaders are increasingly discussing strengthening their "strategic autonomy" amid perceptions of a shifting U.S. foreign policy focus, indicating a move towards Europe managing its regional security with "critical but more limited" U.S. support [2][10][14][12][15].
9. What patterns in Donald Trump's first-term international travel (2017-2021) suggest his likely priorities for state visits in 2026?
| First Term Travel Focus | Major allies and key regional players [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Second Term Foreign Policy Shift | Western Hemisphere dominance, interventionist "peace deals," and transactional high-stakes summits [4][5][6][7][8] |
| Planned 2026 State Visit | May 2026 state visit to China [4][5] |
Donald Trump's first-term travel focused on allies, indicating future priorities. During his first term (2017-2021), his international travel patterns primarily concentrated on major allies and key regional players [1][2][3]. These trips aimed to address concerns such as trade deficits and security burden-sharing, consistent with "America First" diplomatic initiatives [1][2][3]. Repeat visits were made to nations like France, the UK, and Japan, alongside summit-driven trips to locations including Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore [1][2][3]. This established pattern suggests that priorities for state visits in 2026 would likely continue to emphasize reconfiguring defense and trade relations with key allies and regional actors [4][7].
Second-term foreign policy projects high-stakes, crisis-driven engagements. For 2026, Donald Trump's anticipated second-term foreign policy is expected to evolve towards a focus on Western Hemisphere dominance, interventionist "peace deals," and transactional high-stakes summits [4][5][6][7][8]. A notable example is a projected state visit to China in May 2026, intended to facilitate negotiations on trade, technology, and regional tensions amidst a U.S. war with Iran [4][5]. Additional state visits in 2026 would be significantly shaped by ongoing crises, particularly the U.S.-Iran war, and the former president's dedication to achieving "unfinished" second-term objectives, which include the reconfiguration of defense and trade relations with international partners [4][7].
Sources (8)
- 1List of international presidential trips made by Donald Trumpen.wikipedia.org
- 2Donald J. Trump - Travels of the President - Travels - Department History - Office of the Historianhistory.state.gov
- 3List of international presidential trips made by Donald Trumpen.wikipedia.org
- 4May 13, 2026 - Trump arrives in China for summit with Xi Jinping | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 5Trump greeted by Xi in Beijing at high-stakes summit amid US war with Iran - ABC7 New Yorkabc7ny.com
- 6Foreign policy of the second Trump administrationen.wikipedia.org
- 7The Foreign Policy-First President? US external action under Trump 2.0 – in data | European Union Institute for Security Studiesiss.europa.eu
- 8The Trump Doctrine – GeoPoliticSgeopolitic.info
10. What developments in US-China relations could finalize a decision for Trump to attend the 2026 ASEAN summit in the Philippines?
| Trump-Xi Summit Dates | May 14–15, 2026 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Trump's Beijing Visit | Mid-May 2026 [4][5] |
| ASEAN Summit Invitation | From Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. [6] |
Renewed US-China stability significantly influences Trump's 2026 ASEAN Summit decision. An emphasis on "renewed stability" and avoiding disruptions in US-China trade and broader tensions are key factors contributing to former President Trump’s potential attendance at the 2026 ASEAN Summit in the Philippines. This focus was highlighted in analyses surrounding the May 14–15, 2026 Trump–Xi summit [1][2][3]. As part of this strategy, Trump undertook a state visit to Beijing in mid-May 2026 to meet Xi Jinping, a move consistent with leader-to-leader engagement aimed at signaling stability [4][5].
Stabilized relations reduce diplomatic risks for Trump at the summit. Such stabilization in US-China relations could reduce the diplomatic risks associated with Trump attending the ASEAN Summit, making it a more viable option than during periods of deteriorating relations [4][5]. Southeast Asian nations are expected to closely observe these dynamics in the second half of 2026, as they will influence US–China policy and regional engagement, including decisions on ASEAN-related visits [1][2][3]. Additionally, the prevailing US–China détente could lead Trump to avoid adopting a more hardline posture toward China regarding the South China Sea during his visit to Manila [3]. While these factors are clearly identified as influencing the decision following an invitation from Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the specific US-China developments that would definitively finalize Trump's attendance are not explicitly detailed [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Expectations Ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit: A PWH Q&A - Perry World Houseperryworldhouse.upenn.edu
- 2FPRI Experts React | Trump-Xi Summit - Foreign Policy Research Institutefpri.org
- 3What Southeast Asia Should Expect from Trump in 2026 | FULCRUMfulcrum.sg
- 4Trump China trip: What to know as president meets Xi Jinping - BBC Newsbbc.co.uk
- 5How Trump and Xi Traded a New Cold War for a Cold Peacetime.com
- 6Marcos invited Trump to ASEAN Summit, says PH ambassador | Philstar.comphilstar.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Domestically, President Trump is expected to host a G20 summit in Miami, Florida, in December 2026, which involves international leaders [1]. Xi Jinping is also expected to visit the United States in the fall of 2026 [1][4]. The ongoing war with Iran and the crisis at the Strait of Hormuz serve as major catalysts, impacting Trump's diplomatic schedule, travel plans, and prediction market sentiment [5][6][7][8].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (8)
- 1List of presidential trips made by Donald Trump (2026)en.wikipedia.org
- 2Trump to attend Group of Seven meetings in France in Junewashingtontimes.com
- 3List of international presidential trips made by Donald Trumpen.wikipedia.org
- 4Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing: Managing the World’s Most Important Relationshipcsis.org
- 5Trump's strikes on Iran, Venezuela complicate US-Iran peace, nuclear dealscryptobriefing.com
- 6Trump appears to threaten Oman with bombing over Strait of Hormuz impasse | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
- 7Trump calls for NATO action at Strait of Hormuz, threatens military forcecryptobriefing.com
- 8Trump announces Strait of Hormuz reopening amid US-Iran tensionscryptobriefing.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-CHI: YES (May 13, 2026)
