Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term?
Yes refers to: During Trump's term
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- US advisors required denuclearization steps for productive engagement.
- North Korea's engagement demands have significantly shifted per state media.
- Republican hawks demanded denuclearization before legitimizing Kim Jong-Un.
- China consistently emphasized dialogue and denuclearization for regional stability.
- No confirmed reports exist of logistical meetings for a Kim Jong-Un visit.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| During Trump's term | 17.0% | 17.0% | Kim Jong-Un did not visit the United States during Donald Trump's presidential term. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to YES if Kim Jong-Un visits the United States before January 20, 2029, with the outcome verified by The New York Times; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opened on December 18, 2024, and will close early upon the event's occurrence, or by January 20, 2029, at 10:00 am EST. Individuals employed by Source Agencies or possessing material, non-public information are prohibited from trading this contract.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| During Trump's term | $0.21 | $0.83 | 17% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
5. What Are Denuclearization Preconditions for Kim Jong-Un's US Visit?
| Fleitz's Denuclearization Demands | Stopping missile and nuclear testing, freezing fissile material production, inviting international inspectors, closing facilities, and shipping out nuclear materials to meet with Trump and discuss easing sanctions [1]. |
|---|---|
| O'Brien's Summit Condition | A summit with Kim would be pursued if it was anticipated to 'produce a deal' [2]. |
| White House Dialogue Stance | Trump remained open to dialogue with Kim 'without any preconditions' [3]. |
Sources (4)
- 1North Korea: Trump must make demands first, be prepared to walk, when he meets with Kimfoxnews.com
- 2Trump open to summit with Kim if it produces deal: O'Brien | Yonhap News Agencyen.yna.co.kr
- 3(LEAD) White House says Trump remains open to dialogue with Kim 'without any preconditions' | Yonhap News Agencyen.yna.co.kr
- 4Interview: Trump would like to resume personal diplomacy with Kim Jong Un – Radio Free Asiarfa.org
6. What Are North Korea's New Preconditions for US Engagement?
| US Engagement Condition | Dropping "hostile policy" [1] |
|---|---|
| "Hostile Policy" Component | Discarding "denuclearization obsession" [2] |
| Nuclear Program Approach | Pivot towards arms control talks, not dismantlement [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1North Korea could 'get along' with US, says Kim Jong Un - BBC Newsbbc.co.uk
- 2Kim Jong Un says he’s open to talks if US discards ‘denuclearization obsession’ | NK Newsnknews.org
- 3N. Korea pivots to arms control talks with USdailynk.com
- 4https://gadebate.un.org/sites/default/files/gastatements/80/kp_en.pdfgadebate.un.org
- 5Kim Jong Un leaves door open to talks if US accepts North Korea’s nuclear status | NK Newsnknews.org
7. Did Republican Hawks Prepare Legislative Roadblocks for Kim Jong-Un Visit?
| Cotton's Denuclearization Stance | Any future agreement must include the complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula [1] |
|---|---|
| Graham's Reservations on Agreement | We're a long ways away from an agreement and Kim should not play Donald Trump [2] |
| Legislative Roadblocks Evidence | No direct evidence of pre-emptively preparing legislative roadblocks [1] |
Sources (4)
- 1Cotton Statement on President Trump’s Announced Meeting with North Koreacotton.senate.gov
- 2Lindsey Graham on N. Korea summit: "We're a long ways away from an agreement"cbsnews.com
- 3Senator Lindsey Graham On North Korea - Press Releases - United States Senator Lindsey Grahamlgraham.senate.gov
- 4Republicans in Congress caution Trump against trusting North Koreacnn.com
8. What is China's Stance on US-DPRK Relations and Denuclearization?
| China's Coordination | Emphasizes "closer coordination" with the DPRK [1] |
|---|---|
| High-Level Diplomacy | President Xi Jinping held talks with DPRK leader Kim Jong Un [2] |
| Sidelining Concern | Views being sidelined from US-DPRK talks as a significant risk [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1China's Xi seeks closer coordination with North Korea in meeting with Kim | Reutersreuters.com
- 2General Secretary and President Xi Jinping Holds Talks with General Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea and President of the State Affairs of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Kim Jong Un_Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the United States of Americaus.china-embassy.gov.cn
- 3For China, One Of The Greatest Risks Of Trump-Kim Talks Is Being Sidelined: Parallels: NPRnpr.org
- 4Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun’s Regular Press Conference on April 28, 2025_Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of Chinafmprc.gov.cn
- 5Xi says ready to work with Trump to build solid foundation for bilateral ties - Global Timesglobaltimes.cn
9. Were US-North Korea Logistical Meetings Held For Kim's Visit?
| Unpublicized Meetings for US Visit | No specific reports confirming logistical or security-focused meetings between US and North Korean personnel for a potential visit by Kim Jong Un to the United States [1]. |
|---|---|
| Potential Trump-Kim Meeting | US officials were 'quietly discussing' a potential meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un during an upcoming Asia trip (October 2025) [2]. |
| Trump Team Contingency Plans | Trump's team was making 'contingency plans' for a potential encounter, including a surprise DMZ visit (October 2025) [3]. |
Sources (3)
- 1If Trump Wants to Meet Kim Again, He’s Got One Big Opportunity in Early 2026 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peacecarnegieendowment.org
- 2Trump officials quietly discussing Kim Jong Un meeting during upcoming Asia tripcnn.com
- 3Could Trump meet Kim again? His team is making ‘contingency’ planstelegraph.co.uk