Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

Donald Trump's New York felony conviction provides a direct impeachment basis. On May 30, 2024, he was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records in the hush-money case. This conviction, currently under appeal and scheduled for unconditional discharge in January 2025, stands as a concrete, documentable criminal predicate. This specific legal challenge could potentially be used to support articles of impeachment before January 20, 2029 ^[1][2].

Federal cases face unique challenges for triggering impeachment. Other high-profile federal criminal cases, specifically the classified-documents indictment and the 2020-election obstruction indictment, were not active prosecutions during the current presidency ^[4][5]. These cases were dismissed or wound down due to the Department of Justice policy against prosecuting a sitting president, which diminished their direct potential to trigger impeachment through a new indictment while in office ^[4][5]. Nevertheless, political efforts, such as H.Res.353 introduced on April 28, 2025, proposed impeachment articles for categories including obstruction of justice, bribery/corruption, and tyranny. This demonstrates that legal theories tied to alleged misconduct can be packaged as impeachment articles even when separate from a particular indictment ^[3].

Public statements from current House leadership suggest a lack of political willingness to prioritize impeachment against Donald Trump before 2029. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has explicitly stated that impeachment would not be a "top priority" if Democrats were to secure a House majority. Instead, their primary focus would be on addressing issues such as lowering the cost of living ^[1]. This position publicly downranks impeachment as an agenda-driving effort for leadership ^[1].

Individual impeachment resolutions do not reflect leadership's official priorities. Despite the introduction of individual House resolutions, such as H.Res.1155 and H.Res.939 in the 119th Congress, which propose the impeachment of Donald J. Trump, these do not align with the stated priorities of current House leadership ^[2][3]. The evidence indicates that leadership's agenda may differ from such individual advocacy efforts ^[2][3]. Furthermore, any statement made by Donald Trump himself regarding potential impeachment is not confirmation of House leadership's intent to pursue impeachment before 2029 ^[4].

Prediction markets indicate a significantly higher probability for House impeachment. Implied probabilities for President Trump's impeachment by the House of Representatives range from 65% to 74% before January 2028 or January 2029 ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]}. This elevated likelihood is partly attributed to expectations of a Democratic takeover of the House in the 2026 midterm elections, which prediction markets estimate between approximately 71% and 84% ^[1][2][3][7]. These impeachment contracts typically resolve affirmatively if the House passes articles of impeachment, irrespective of any Senate outcome ^[1][3].

Senate conviction and removal odds are significantly lower due to higher constitutional thresholds. In stark contrast, the implied probabilities for President Trump's actual removal from office, requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, are considerably lower, standing between 21.1% and 27% ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]}. This substantial divergence in odds reflects the distinct constitutional thresholds: a simple majority is sufficient for impeachment in the House, whereas a supermajority is mandated for conviction and removal in the Senate, making the latter outcome far more challenging to achieve ^[1][2][3][6].

Preventing a House impeachment requires Republican control and public opinion shifts. Preventing a House impeachment vote against Trump before January 20, 2029, hinges on Republicans either maintaining or regaining control of the House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections ^[3][1]. Additionally, a critical shift in public sentiment would be necessary, moving from current majority support to majority opposition for impeachment, or at least a significant decline in its intensity ^[4][5].

Republican House control is projected, yet market odds favor impeachment. Pre-election analyses for 2026 indicate that Republicans are likely to retain, or narrowly retain, their majority in the House, which currently requires 218 seats ^[1][2]. Despite these projections for Republican control, Polymarket's crowd probability for impeachment stood at 76% for "YES" as of March 19, 2026 ^[3]. This suggests that traders anticipate a relatively low likelihood of a Republican-controlled House successfully preventing impeachment throughout the remainder of the term ^[3].

Majority public opinion currently supports impeachment, necessitating a reversal. Public opinion in mid-2026 consistently demonstrates majority support for impeaching Trump. For instance, an April 10-14, 2026, Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll reported 55% support and 37% opposition ^[4]. Similarly, a Free Speech For People/Lake Research Partners poll found 52% support and 40% opposition ^[5]. For impeachment to be prevented by shifts in public opinion, these figures would need to reverse to a majority opposing impeachment, or show a substantial reduction in the current level of support ^[4][5].

Potential second-term impeachment grounds show both overlap and new allegations. Proposed impeachment articles for a potential second term for Donald Trump, exemplified by H.Res. 353 and H.Res. 939 from the 119th Congress, include allegations such as obstruction of justice, abuse of trade powers, bribery, and direct threats against members of Congress and federal judges ^{[6][7][8][9][10][11]}. These potential grounds share thematic commonalities with his first-term articles, which encompassed abuse of power, obstruction of Congress, and incitement of insurrection ^[1][2][3][4]. However, the new proposals also introduce specific allegations not seen in previous impeachments.

First impeachments focused on specific actions, new proposals introduce distinct charges. Donald Trump's first impeachment in 2019 involved charges of 'abuse of power' related to soliciting Ukraine's interference and 'obstruction of Congress' for defying subpoenas ^[1][2]. His second impeachment in 2021 charged him with 'incitement of insurrection' concerning his actions around the January 6 Capitol attack ^[3][4]. In contrast, potential second-term grounds, like those outlined in H.Res. 353, set forth seven articles including usurpation of appropriations power, First Amendment-rights violations, and 'tyranny' ^[6][7][8]. H.Res. 939 specifically alleges calling for the execution of members of Congress and threatening federal judges ^[9][10][11]. While 'obstruction of Congress' has parallels to 'obstruction of justice,' and 'abuse of power' relates to 'abuse of trade powers' and 'bribery & corruption,' the 119th Congress examples introduce distinct allegations such as direct threats against officials and accusations of 'tyranny' ^{[1][2][6][7][8][9][10][11]}. Furthermore, a prediction market for impeachment during a potential second term indicated an implied probability of approximately 72% at the time of capture, with resolution expected before January 20, 2029 ^[5].