Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 0.8%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 11.0% 8.6%
Trump Markets
Active Markets (52)
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 5.6% 4.4%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 23.0% 20.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 4.1% 2.8%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 58.0% 43.3%
Before July 2026
Market Model 0.9% 0.7%
Before 2027
Market Model 27.0% 20.8%
Kash Patel
Market Model 61.0% 50.0%
Pete Hegseth
Market Model 28.0% 16.7%
Before 2027
Market Model 7.7% 3.8%
Before August 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 99.1% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model 26.0% 15.4%
Yes
Market Model 20.0% 13.4%
Yes
Market Model 45.0% 28.4%
Below 36%
Market Model 58.0% 59.1%
Below 35%
Market Model 48.0% 49.8%
Yes
Market Model 31.0% 31.0%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 6.6%
Before Nov 4, 2026
Market Model 25.0% 9.3%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 9.0% 3.2%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 55.0% 53.4%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 38.0% 36.5%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.7%
Before Jan 2027
Market Model 85.0% 85.1%
Before Aug 2026
Market Model 38.0% 40.4%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 17.0%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 5.1%
Yes
Market Model 68.0% 76.4%
Ghislaine Maxwell
Market Model 15.0% 7.5%
Derek Chauvin
Market Model 6.1% 2.3%
Barron Trump
Market Model 40.0% 27.0%
Donald Trump
Market Model 56.0% 44.1%
Before 2027
Market Model 13.0% 6.5%
Before August
Market Model 5.0% 2.5%
Above 43%
Market Model 28.0% 16.6%
Above 44%
Market Model 23.0% 13.5%
Wind turbines
Market Model 49.0% 40.0%
Canadian aircraft
Market Model 18.0% 8.8%
James Fishback
Market Model 9.9% 4.0%
Benjamin Netanyahu
Market Model 24.0% 13.0%
Yes
Market Model 39.0% 42.9%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 30.9%
Donald Trump
Market Model 74.0% 52.6%
Bill Clinton
Market Model 80.0% 73.7%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 22.5%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
0
Market Model 64.0% 64.3%
2
Market Model 20.0% 10.2%
Ken Paxton
Market Model 8.6% 3.4%
Ron DeSantis
Market Model 14.0% 5.0%
Before 2028
Market Model 11.0% 6.4%
Before 2029
Market Model 40.0% 24.7%
Before 2027
Market Model 23.0% 25.8%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 50.0% 51.6%
Nicolás Maduro
Market Model 13.0% 5.7%
Xi Jinping
Market Model 93.8% 91.8%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 5.5%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 30.3%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 12.1%
Portland
Market Model 21.0% 13.3%
San Francisco
Market Model 24.0% 13.0%
No other person
Market Model 52.0% 28.6%
Ron DeSantis
Market Model 16.0% 11.1%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 78.0% 61.8%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 63.0% 44.3%
Xi Jinping
Market Model 50.0% 37.4%
Reza Pahlavi
Market Model 24.0% 13.0%
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 6.1%
Yes
Market Model 40.0% 40.0%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 51.0%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 6.4%
Todd Blanche
Market Model 64.0% 22.0%
Lee Zeldin
Market Model 18.0% 33.3%
Below 300
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
Above 800
Market Model 21.0% 17.6%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.2%
Greenland
Market Model 2.3% 18.7%
Venezuela
Market Model 1.8% 6.3%
$0 / No Acquisition
Market Model 78.0% 94.4%
$600 billion to $899 billion
Market Model 6.0% 0.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump issue a public apology? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 0.8% | High | $54,191.12 | Refresh |
| Kash Patel out as FBI Director? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 5.6% | 4.4% | High | $2,153,846.63 | Refresh |
| Will Trump be impeached? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.1% | 2.8% | High | $3,631,522.35 | Refresh |
| Will marijuana be rescheduled? Top outcome: Before July 2026 | 0.9% | 0.7% | High | $2,317,680.26 | Refresh |
| Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Top outcome: Kash Patel | 61.0% | 50.0% | Med | $3,855,945.37 | Refresh |
| Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) Top outcome: Before 2027 | 7.7% | 3.8% | High | $9,322,776.57 | Refresh |
| Tulsi Gabbard out as Director of National Intelligence? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | $2,847,550.49 | Refresh |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 26.0% | 15.4% | High | $375,789.9 | Refresh |
| Will Trump expand the H1-B program? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 20.0% | 13.4% | Med | $119,526.66 | Refresh |
| Will Trump lower beef tariffs? Yes refers to: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 45.0% | 28.4% | High | $5,348.13 | Refresh |
| How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Top outcome: Below 36% | 58.0% | 59.1% | High | $189,454.94 | Refresh |
| Will E-Verify be expanded in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 31.0% | 31.0% | Med | $468.38 | Refresh |
| Will Trump make IVF free? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 14.0% | 6.6% | Med | $34,509.74 | Refresh |
| Will Trump declare an election emergency? Top outcome: Before Nov 4, 2026 | 25.0% | 9.3% | High | $33,192.06 | Refresh |
| Will Trump order pre-release federal review of AI models? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 55.0% | 53.4% | High | $10,030.29 | Refresh |
| Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 1.0% | 0.7% | Med | $9,750 | Refresh |
| When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027 | 85.0% | 85.1% | High | $11,719.43 | Refresh |
| Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Yes refers to: Before his term ends | 22.0% | 17.0% | Med | $450,741.14 | Refresh |
| Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 5.1% | Med | $10,269.04 | Refresh |
| Will President Trump be impeached during his term? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 68.0% | 76.4% | Med | $316,011.59 | Refresh |
| Who will Trump pardon in 2026? Top outcome: Ghislaine Maxwell | 15.0% | 7.5% | Med | $198,913.22 | Refresh |
| Who will Trump pardon? Top outcome: Barron Trump | 40.0% | 27.0% | Med | $286,657.68 | Refresh |
| Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 13.0% | 6.5% | High | $1,887,226.31 | Refresh |
| How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Top outcome: Above 43% | 28.0% | 16.6% | High | $100,314.87 | Refresh |
| Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026? Top outcome: Wind turbines | 49.0% | 40.0% | Med | $34,891.22 | Refresh |
| Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026? Top outcome: James Fishback | 9.9% | 4.0% | Med | $52,525.27 | Refresh |
| Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 39.0% | 42.9% | Med | $39,067.26 | Refresh |
| Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 42.0% | 30.9% | Med | $16,531.25 | Refresh |
| Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026? Top outcome: Donald Trump | 74.0% | 52.6% | Med | $11,868.06 | Refresh |
| Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 27.0% | 22.5% | Med | $122,991.83 | Refresh |
| Will Trump punish SpaceX? Yes refers to: Before Jul 2026 | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | $13,988.43 | Refresh |
| How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026? Top outcome: 0 | 64.0% | 64.3% | High | $107,844.7 | Refresh |
| Who will join the Trump administration before July? Top outcome: Ken Paxton | 8.6% | 3.4% | Med | $19,082.09 | Refresh |
| When will Trump's ballroom be completed? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 11.0% | 6.4% | High | $38,687.95 | Refresh |
| Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 23.0% | 25.8% | High | $923,936.7 | Refresh |
| Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026? Top outcome: Nicolás Maduro | 13.0% | 5.7% | Med | $336,510.4 | Refresh |
| Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 8.0% | 5.5% | Med | $22,818.51 | Refresh |
| Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 24.0% | 30.3% | Med | $20,270.04 | Refresh |
| Will credit card rates be capped in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 17.0% | 12.1% | Med | $299,710.69 | Refresh |
| Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026? Top outcome: Portland | 21.0% | 13.3% | Med | $66,782.43 | Refresh |
| Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? Top outcome: No other person | 52.0% | 28.6% | High | $25,193.42 | Refresh |
| When will Trump's Attorney General pick be announced? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 78.0% | 61.8% | High | $158,108.13 | Refresh |
| Who will visit the White House in 2026? Top outcome: Xi Jinping | 50.0% | 37.4% | Med | $180,468.54 | Refresh |
| Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 13.0% | 6.1% | Med | $9,303.05 | Refresh |
| Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 40.0% | 40.0% | Med | $7,037.29 | Refresh |
| Will Trump approve a new city on federal land? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 43.0% | 51.0% | Med | $5,239 | Refresh |
| Will Trump end the Federal Reserve? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 7.0% | 6.4% | Med | $105,682 | Refresh |
| Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Top outcome: Todd Blanche | 64.0% | 22.0% | High | $602,678 | Refresh |
| How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? Top outcome: Below 300 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | $26,513 | Refresh |
| Will Trump add a 51st state to the US? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 14.0% | 9.2% | Med | $53,434 | Refresh |
| What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? Top outcome: Greenland | 2.3% | 18.7% | High | $594,741 | Refresh |
| How much will the US acquire Greenland for? Top outcome: $0 / No Acquisition | 78.0% | 94.4% | High | $1,023,227 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (12)
Yes
Market Model — —
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 88.0% 89.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 8.4%
Tulsi Gabbard
Market Model 16.0% 13.4%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Market Model 60.0% 44.7%
Judy Shelton
Market Model 5.0% 3.8%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 94.0% 86.3%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | $623,489.85 | ||
| When will Trump's Director of National Intelligence pick be announced? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | $26,616.62 | |
| — | — | Med | $9,420.5 | ||
| — | — | Med | $18,288.73 | ||
| — | — | Med | $1,049,828.71 | ||
| — | — | Med | $52,956.39 | ||
| Will Trump release new UFO files before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 88.0% | 89.6% | Med | $182,518.35 | |
| — | — | Med | $31,569.2 | ||
| — | — | High | $1,637,041.71 | ||
| Will Trump balance the budget? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 12.0% | 8.4% | Med | $40,327 | |
| Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Top outcome: Tulsi Gabbard | 16.0% | 13.4% | High | $1,754,507 | |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 5.0% | 3.8% | High | $196,269,477 |
