Trump Markets

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.

Active Markets (66)

Will Trump take federal action against the Smithsonian? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 20.0% 28.8%

1.9K contracts Refresh

When will Ottawa's Trump Avenue be renamed? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 24.0% 12.3%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Market Model 27.0% 16.0%

4.7K contracts Refresh

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 15.0% 15.0%

$65.6M Refresh

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Polymarket

December 31

Market Model 7.0% 3.5%

October 31

Market Model 2.0% 1.0%

$17.9M Refresh

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket

September 30

Market Model 21.0% 14.2%

December 31

Market Model 64.0% 55.0%

$24.1M Refresh

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 7.0% 7.0%

$25.4M Refresh

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 3.6% 2.6%

$35.4M Refresh

Venezuela leader end of 2026? Polymarket

Richard Grenell

Market Model 0.1% 0.1%

Frank Donovan

Market Model 0.2% 0.2%

$95.9M Refresh

Will the Treasury purchase Bitcoin? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 6.0% 2.1%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Market Model 0.0% 3.1%

77 contracts Refresh

Will the ABA lose its law school accreditation power? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 64.0% 73.0%

3.1K contracts Refresh

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 5.4% 3.6%

Before 2028

Market Model 16.0% 10.7%

10.7M contracts Refresh

Trump out as President before 2027? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 7.0% 5.2%

$10.5M Refresh

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket

December 31

Market Model 4.0% 4.5%

September 30

Market Model 1.1% 1.9%

$29.0M Refresh

Will Trump be impeached? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 4.1% 2.8%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Market Model 58.0% 43.3%

3.6M contracts Refresh

Will marijuana be rescheduled? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 27.0% 20.8%

Before 2028

Market Model 70.0% 72.2%

2.3M contracts Refresh

Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Kalshi

Before January 21, 2029

Market Model 30.0% 15.7%

Before 2027

Market Model 8.5% 4.2%

3.2M contracts Refresh

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Kalshi

Kash Patel

Market Model 61.0% 50.0%

Pete Hegseth

Market Model 28.0% 16.7%

3.9M contracts Refresh

Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? Kalshi

Before January 20, 2029

Market Model 22.0% 11.2%

Before 2027

Market Model 7.0% 3.5%

7.2M contracts Refresh

Will Donald Trump visit Iran? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.2% 5.3%

1.1M contracts Refresh

Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 43.0% 31.8%

62.0K contracts Refresh

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 26.0% 15.4%

375.8K contracts Refresh

Will Trump expand the H1-B program? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 20.0% 13.4%

119.5K contracts Refresh

How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Kalshi

Below 36%

Market Model 58.0% 59.1%

Below 35%

Market Model 48.0% 49.8%

189.5K contracts Refresh

Will E-Verify be expanded in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 31.0% 31.0%

468 contracts Refresh

Will Trump make IVF free? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 14.0% 6.6%

34.5K contracts Refresh

Will Trump declare an election emergency? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 25.0% 9.3%

33.2K contracts Refresh

Will Trump recognize Taiwan? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 16.0% 12.2%

18.7K contracts Refresh

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 1.0% 0.7%

9.8K contracts Refresh

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 22.0% 17.0%

450.7K contracts Refresh

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 11.0% 5.1%

10.3K contracts Refresh

Will President Trump be impeached during his term? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 68.0% 76.4%

316.0K contracts Refresh

Who will Trump pardon in 2026? Kalshi

Ghislaine Maxwell

Market Model 15.0% 7.5%

Derek Chauvin

Market Model 6.1% 2.3%

198.9K contracts Refresh

Who will Trump pardon? Kalshi

Barron Trump

Market Model 40.0% 27.0%

Donald Trump

Market Model 56.0% 44.1%

286.7K contracts Refresh

Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 21.0% 30.0%

109.9K contracts Refresh

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 13.0% 6.5%

1.9M contracts Refresh

How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Kalshi

Above 43%

Market Model 28.0% 16.6%

Above 44%

Market Model 23.0% 13.5%

100.3K contracts Refresh

Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026? Kalshi

Wind turbines

Market Model 49.0% 40.0%

Canadian aircraft

Market Model 18.0% 8.8%

34.9K contracts Refresh

Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026? Kalshi

James Fishback

Market Model 9.9% 4.0%

Benjamin Netanyahu

Market Model 24.0% 13.0%

52.5K contracts Refresh

Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 39.0% 42.9%

39.1K contracts Refresh

Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 42.0% 30.9%

16.5K contracts Refresh

Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 31.0% 30.2%

Before 2028

Market Model 47.0% 44.8%

54.8K contracts Refresh

Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026? Kalshi

Donald Trump

Market Model 74.0% 52.6%

Bill Clinton

Market Model 80.0% 73.7%

11.9K contracts Refresh

Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 27.0% 22.5%

123.0K contracts Refresh

Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 17.0%

6.8K contracts Refresh

How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026? Kalshi

Market Model 64.0% 64.3%

Market Model 20.0% 10.2%

107.8K contracts Refresh

When will Trump's ballroom be completed? Kalshi

Before 2028

Market Model 11.0% 6.4%

Before 2029

Market Model 40.0% 24.7%

38.7K contracts Refresh

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 25.0% 25.8%

Before Jan 20, 2029

Market Model 59.0% 51.6%

923.9K contracts Refresh

Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026? Kalshi

Nicolás Maduro

Market Model 13.0% 5.7%

Xi Jinping

Market Model 93.8% 91.8%

336.5K contracts Refresh

Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 8.0% 5.5%

22.8K contracts Refresh

Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 24.0% 30.3%

20.3K contracts Refresh

Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 30.0% 30.0%

517.0K contracts Refresh

Will credit card rates be capped in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 12.1%

299.7K contracts Refresh

Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026? Kalshi

Portland

Market Model 21.0% 13.3%

San Francisco

Market Model 24.0% 13.0%

66.8K contracts Refresh

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? Kalshi

No other person

Market Model 52.0% 28.6%

Ron DeSantis

Market Model 16.0% 11.1%

25.2K contracts Refresh

Who will visit the White House in 2026? Kalshi

Xi Jinping

Market Model 50.0% 37.4%

Reza Pahlavi

Market Model 24.0% 13.0%

180.5K contracts Refresh

What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? Kalshi

United Nations

Market Model 43.0% 22.3%

World Trade Organization

Market Model 45.0% 22.6%

16.4K contracts Refresh

Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 13.0% 6.1%

9.3K contracts Refresh

Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 40.0% 40.0%

7.0K contracts Refresh

Will Trump approve a new city on federal land? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 43.0% 51.0%

5.2K contracts Refresh

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 7.0% 6.4%

105.7K contracts Refresh

How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? Kalshi

Below 300

Market Model 11.0% 5.5%

Above 800

Market Model 21.0% 17.6%

26.5K contracts Refresh

Will Trump add a 51st state to the US? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 14.0% 9.2%

53.4K contracts Refresh

Will the US take control of any part of Canada? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 12.0% 7.8%

110.0K contracts Refresh

Will the US acquire any new territory? Kalshi

Before Jan 2027

Market Model 13.0% 6.5%

Before Jan 2028

Market Model 30.0% 15.7%

591.3K contracts Refresh

What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? Kalshi

Greenland

Market Model 2.3% 18.7%

Venezuela

Market Model 1.8% 6.3%

594.7K contracts Refresh

How much will the US acquire Greenland for? Kalshi

$0 / No Acquisition

Market Model 78.0% 94.4%

$600 billion to $899 billion

Market Model 6.0% 0.2%

1.0M contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Will Trump take federal action against the Smithsonian? Yes refers to: Yes	20.0%	28.8%	Med	76	Refresh
When will Ottawa's Trump Avenue be renamed? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	24.0%	12.3%	High	76	Refresh
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	15.0%	15.0%	Med	55	Refresh
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Top outcome: December 31	7.0%	3.5%	High	63	Refresh
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Top outcome: September 30	21.0%	14.2%	High	59	Refresh
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	7.0%	7.0%	Med	54	Refresh
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	3.6%	2.6%	Med	58	Refresh
Venezuela leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Richard Grenell	0.1%	0.1%	High	59	Refresh
Will the Treasury purchase Bitcoin? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	6.0%	2.1%	High	66	Refresh
Will the ABA lose its law school accreditation power? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	64.0%	73.0%	Med	75	Refresh
Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) Top outcome: Before 2027	5.4%	3.6%	High	61	Refresh
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	7.0%	5.2%	Med	40	Refresh
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Top outcome: December 31	4.0%	4.5%	High	49	Refresh
Will Trump be impeached? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	4.1%	2.8%	High	79	Refresh
Will marijuana be rescheduled? Top outcome: Before 2027	27.0%	20.8%	High	77	Refresh
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 21, 2029	30.0%	15.7%	High	68	Refresh
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Top outcome: Kash Patel	61.0%	50.0%	Med	47	Refresh
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 20, 2029	22.0%	11.2%	High	72	Refresh
Will Donald Trump visit Iran? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	9.2%	5.3%	High	77	Refresh
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China? Yes refers to: Before 2029	43.0%	31.8%	Med	63	Refresh
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? Yes refers to: Before 2027	26.0%	15.4%	High	74	Refresh
Will Trump expand the H1-B program? Yes refers to: Before 2029	20.0%	13.4%	Med	72	Refresh
How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Top outcome: Below 36%	58.0%	59.1%	High	79	Refresh
Will E-Verify be expanded in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027	31.0%	31.0%	Med	73	Refresh
Will Trump make IVF free? Yes refers to: Before 2029	14.0%	6.6%	Med	75	Refresh
Will Trump declare an election emergency? Yes refers to: Before Nov 4, 2026	25.0%	9.3%	High	83	Refresh
Will Trump recognize Taiwan? Yes refers to: During Trump's term	16.0%	12.2%	Med	73	Refresh
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	1.0%	0.7%	Med	67	Refresh
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Yes refers to: Before his term ends	22.0%	17.0%	Med	75	Refresh
Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain? Yes refers to: Before 2027	11.0%	5.1%	Med	73	Refresh
Will President Trump be impeached during his term? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029	68.0%	76.4%	Med	80	Refresh
Who will Trump pardon in 2026? Top outcome: Ghislaine Maxwell	15.0%	7.5%	Med	58	Refresh
Who will Trump pardon? Top outcome: Barron Trump	40.0%	27.0%	Med	60	Refresh
Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	21.0%	30.0%	Med	79	Refresh
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? Yes refers to: Before 2027	13.0%	6.5%	High	77	Refresh
How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? Top outcome: Above 43%	28.0%	16.6%	High	71	Refresh
Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026? Top outcome: Wind turbines	49.0%	40.0%	Med	74	Refresh
Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026? Top outcome: James Fishback	9.9%	4.0%	Med	72	Refresh
Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029	39.0%	42.9%	Med	74	Refresh
Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028? Yes refers to: Before 2028	42.0%	30.9%	Med	78	Refresh
Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment? Top outcome: Before 2027	31.0%	30.2%	High	71	Refresh
Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026? Top outcome: Donald Trump	74.0%	52.6%	Med	77	Refresh
Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency? Yes refers to: Before 2029	27.0%	22.5%	Med	63	Refresh
Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court? Yes refers to: Before 2027	17.0%	17.0%	Med	56	Refresh
How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026? Top outcome: 0	64.0%	64.3%	High	61	Refresh
When will Trump's ballroom be completed? Top outcome: Before 2028	11.0%	6.4%	High	74	Refresh
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? Top outcome: Before 2027	25.0%	25.8%	High	77	Refresh
Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026? Top outcome: Nicolás Maduro	13.0%	5.7%	Med	73	Refresh
Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin? Yes refers to: Before 2027	8.0%	5.5%	Med	74	Refresh
Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027	24.0%	30.3%	Med	74	Refresh
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? Yes refers to: During Trump's term	30.0%	30.0%	Med	77	Refresh
Will credit card rates be capped in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027	17.0%	12.1%	Med	66	Refresh
Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026? Top outcome: Portland	21.0%	13.3%	Med	67	Refresh
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? Top outcome: No other person	52.0%	28.6%	High	66	Refresh
Who will visit the White House in 2026? Top outcome: Xi Jinping	50.0%	37.4%	Med	73	Refresh
What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? Top outcome: United Nations	43.0%	22.3%	Med	72	Refresh
Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore? Yes refers to: Before 2029	13.0%	6.1%	Med	75	Refresh
Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030	40.0%	40.0%	Med	73	Refresh
Will Trump approve a new city on federal land? Yes refers to: Before 2029	43.0%	51.0%	Med	66	Refresh
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029	7.0%	6.4%	Med	78	Refresh
How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? Top outcome: Below 300	11.0%	5.5%	High	68	Refresh
Will Trump add a 51st state to the US? Yes refers to: Before 2029	14.0%	9.2%	Med	72	Refresh
Will the US take control of any part of Canada? Yes refers to: Before 2029	12.0%	7.8%	Med	63	Refresh
Will the US acquire any new territory? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027	13.0%	6.5%	High	66	Refresh
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? Top outcome: Greenland	2.3%	18.7%	High	70	Refresh
How much will the US acquire Greenland for? Top outcome: $0 / No Acquisition	78.0%	94.4%	High	73	Refresh

Expired Markets (43)

When will Trump release more UFO files? Kalshi

Before Oct 2, 2026

Market Model 94.0% 94.3%

Before Sep 25, 2026

Market Model 95.0% 94.3%

47.4K contracts

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/13-9/19) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

96.9K contracts

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/6-9/12) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

41.7K contracts

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/30-9/5) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

26.9K contracts

Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 99.0% 99.9%

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 96.0% 99.9%

9.1K contracts

Trump Truth Social posts this week? (8/16-8/22) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

236.0K contracts

What will Trump say during Cabinet Meeting? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$194.3K

Will a court order a tariff refund? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

0 contracts

Will Donald Trump issue a public apology? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 11.0% 8.6%

54.2K contracts

Kash Patel out as FBI Director? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.2M contracts

Who will attend Freedom 250? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

623.5K contracts

When will Trump's Director of National Intelligence pick be announced? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

26.6K contracts

Tulsi Gabbard out as Director of National Intelligence? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.8M contracts

Will the travel ban end for any countries participating in the World Cup? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

9.4K contracts

Will Trump meet Mamdani before Jun 9, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

18.3K contracts

Will Trump attend a Pro Basketball finals game? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.0M contracts

Will Trump lower beef tariffs? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

5.3K contracts

What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.6K contracts

Will Trump order pre-release federal review of AI models? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 55.0% 53.4%

10.0K contracts

When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? Kalshi

Before Jan 2027

Market Model 85.0% 85.1%

Before Dec 2026

Market Model 79.0% 79.2%

11.7K contracts

Will Trump sue Powell before his term ends? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

53.0K contracts

Will Trump do anything this week? (5/3-5/9) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.8K contracts

Will Trump release new UFO files before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 88.0% 89.6%

182.5K contracts

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in May 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

89.2K contracts

Trump's approval rating on May 8, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

43.2K contracts

Trump's approval rating on May 1, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

111.0K contracts

Who will Trump sue before May? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

31.6K contracts

Will Trump punish SpaceX? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

14.0K contracts

Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

16.2K contracts

Will Trump do anything this week? (4/26-5/2) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.7K contracts

Who will join the Trump administration before July? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.1K contracts

When will Trump's Attorney General pick be announced? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

158.1K contracts

Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

499.1K contracts

Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

27.2K contracts

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

119.9K contracts

How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

25.7K contracts

Trump Truth Social posts this week? (4/26-5/2) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

32.0K contracts

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

966.0K contracts

How many Gold Cards will Trump issue before May? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.6M contracts

Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Kalshi

Todd Blanche

Market Model 64.0% 22.0%

Lee Zeldin

Market Model 18.0% 33.3%

602.7K contracts

Will Trump balance the budget? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 12.0% 8.4%

40.3K contracts

Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Kalshi

Tulsi Gabbard

Market Model 16.0% 13.4%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Market Model 60.0% 44.7%

1.8M contracts

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Kalshi

Judy Shelton

Market Model 5.0% 3.8%

Kevin Warsh

Market Model 94.0% 86.3%

196.3M contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
When will Trump release more UFO files? Top outcome: Before Oct 2, 2026	94.0%	94.3%	High	—
How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/13-9/19)	—	—	High	82
How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/6-9/12)	—	—	High	76
How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/30-9/5)	—	—	High	—
Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	99.0%	99.9%	High	—
Trump Truth Social posts this week? (8/16-8/22)	—	—	High	—
What will Trump say during Cabinet Meeting?	—	—	Med	—
Will a court order a tariff refund?	—	—	Low	—
Will Donald Trump issue a public apology? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	11.0%	8.6%	High	—
Kash Patel out as FBI Director?	—	—	High	—
Who will attend Freedom 250?	—	—	Med	—
When will Trump's Director of National Intelligence pick be announced?	—	—	High	—
Tulsi Gabbard out as Director of National Intelligence?	—	—	High	—
Will the travel ban end for any countries participating in the World Cup?	—	—	Med	—
Will Trump meet Mamdani before Jun 9, 2026?	—	—	Med	—
Will Trump attend a Pro Basketball finals game?	—	—	Med	—
Will Trump lower beef tariffs?	—	—	High	—
What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump order pre-release federal review of AI models? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	55.0%	53.4%	High	—
When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027	85.0%	85.1%	High	—
Will Trump sue Powell before his term ends?	—	—	Med	—
Will Trump do anything this week? (5/3-5/9)	—	—	High	—
Will Trump release new UFO files before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027	88.0%	89.6%	Med	—
How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in May 2026?	—	—	High	—
Trump's approval rating on May 8, 2026?	—	—	High	—
Trump's approval rating on May 1, 2026?	—	—	High	—
Who will Trump sue before May?	—	—	Med	—
Will Trump punish SpaceX?	—	—	Med	—
Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump do anything this week? (4/26-5/2)	—	—	Med	—
Who will join the Trump administration before July?	—	—	Med	—
When will Trump's Attorney General pick be announced?	—	—	High	—
Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?	—	—	Med	—
Will Trump's approval rating increase this week?	—	—	Med	—
Who will Donald Trump talk to in Apr 2026?	—	—	Med	—
How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026?	—	—	High	—
Trump Truth Social posts this week? (4/26-5/2)	—	—	High	—
How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Apr 2026?	—	—	High	—
How many Gold Cards will Trump issue before May?	—	—	High	—
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Top outcome: Todd Blanche	64.0%	22.0%	High	—
Will Trump balance the budget? Yes refers to: During Trump's term	12.0%	8.4%	Med	—
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Top outcome: Tulsi Gabbard	16.0%	13.4%	High	—
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton	5.0%	3.8%	High	—

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