Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for Lori Chavez-DeRemer to leave Trump's Cabinet next, predicting 44.7% compared to the market's 60.0%. This suggests the market may be overestimating the immediate likelihood of her departure given the lack of recent high-profile negative media or direct public criticisms from GOP leaders.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market is characterized by a stable, sideways trend within a very narrow and low-probability price range of 1.0% to 5.0%. The price began at 1.0%, saw a minor and brief increase to 2.0% around March 20, and has since returned to its starting point and support level of 1.0%. There have been no significant or sustained price movements. This price action suggests the market has not reacted to any news or speculation that would increase the perceived probability of this specific official's departure.
The lack of price volatility is explained by the provided context. Following the recent departure of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, market speculation and media focus have shifted to other officials, namely Labor Secretary Chavez-DeRemer and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Since the news does not mention this particular official ("MRUB") as a likely candidate for departure, there has been no catalyst to drive the price higher. The brief rise to 2.0% likely reflects general market noise or minor speculative trades in the wake of the Noem firing, rather than a reaction to a specific event concerning this individual.
Market sentiment is clearly bearish on the prospect of this official being the next to leave the Cabinet. The price consistently holding at the 1.0% floor acts as a strong support level, indicating a consensus belief in a very low probability of this outcome. While the total volume of over 120,000 contracts shows a degree of market participation, the price stability suggests that this volume is not creating any upward pressure. The chart indicates that traders see minimal risk of this official's departure in the near term, pricing it as a remote possibility.
- Lori Chavez-DeRemer faces misconduct, internal issues, and weaker loyalty to Trump.
- Pete Hegseth received significant recent negative media on Trump-aligned platforms.
- Pete Hegseth's extensive loyalty to Trump provides a strong buffer against dismissal.
- No influential Republican leaders have publicly expressed loss of confidence.
- Kristi Noem's March 2026 departure remains the last reported Cabinet change.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsi Gabbard | 16.0% | 13.4% | No current specific issues or public reports suggest imminent departure. |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 60.0% | 44.7% | Misconduct allegations, office issues, and personal scandals, plus weaker loyalty, point to her departure. |
| Marco Rubio | 1.0% | 0.9% | No current reports or public issues indicate an imminent departure. |
| Sean Duffy | 2.0% | 1.9% | No current reports or public issues indicate an imminent departure. |
| Doug Burgum | 1.0% | 0.9% | No current reports or public issues indicate an imminent departure. |
Current Context
Kristi Noem was the most recent departure from President Trump's Cabinet. The former Homeland Security Secretary was fired on March 5, 2026 [1]. Her replacement, Markwayne Mullin, was subsequently confirmed as the new DHS Secretary on March 23, 2026 [2]. Predicting the next Cabinet departure remains speculative, as there is no definitive answer for this forward-looking event [3].
Labor and Defense Secretaries are currently top departure candidates due to various issues. Prediction markets and expert analysis frequently highlight Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as the most likely next officials to leave [4], [3]. Chavez-DeRemer faces multiple allegations of misconduct, including the misuse of travel funds, an extramarital affair, and drinking in the office [4], [5]. Hegseth's tenure is challenged by low public approval ratings, reported ties to Jeffrey Epstein, and controversies within the Pentagon [4], [6]. CNN has identified both Chavez-DeRemer and Hegseth as persistent problems for the Trump administration, alongside Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [4]. Kalshi prediction markets previously indicated Pete Hegseth as a favored candidate for departure with 32% odds, while others like Pam Bondi were also considered [7].
Sources (7)
- 1Trump fires Kristi Noem as homeland security secretary: NPRnpr.org
- 2Donald Trump's Cabinet, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3Who Will Leave Trump’s Cabinet First? See Who’s Favored in Latest Prediction Marketssportsbettingdime.com
- 4Analysis: Noem’s ouster comes as Trump’s Cabinet keeps causing him problems | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 5Lori Chavez-DeRemeren.wikipedia.org
- 6Pete Hegseth: AP-NORC poll shows low approval of his nomination | AP Newsuat.apnews.com
- 7Pam Bondi leads cabinet exit oddsnews.kalshi.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" for Lori Chavez-DeRemer if she is the first defined Cabinet member to leave office (by quitting, being fired, or impeached, excluding death or a leave of absence) after March 10, 2026. It resolves to "No" if another eligible Cabinet member leaves before her, or if she does not leave by the market's final close on January 20, 2029. The event is mutually exclusive, meaning only one person can resolve to "Yes," with tie-breaks for simultaneous departures based on who leaves first, then alphabetical last name; outcomes are verified by the White House and The New York Times.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | $0.60 | $0.42 | 60% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | $0.16 | $0.85 | 16% |
| Pete Hegseth | $0.09 | $0.95 | 9% |
| Pam Bondi | $0.07 | $0.95 | 7% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | $0.05 | $0.97 | 5% |
| Howard Lutnick | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Susie Wiles | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Chris Wright | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Russell Vought | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Sean Duffy | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Brooke Rollins | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Doug Burgum | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Doug Collins | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Jamieson Greer | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| John Ratcliffe | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Kelly Loeffler | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Lee Zeldin | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Linda McMahon | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Marco Rubio | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Michael Kratsios | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Waltz | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Scott Bessent | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Scott Turner | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary, was fired by President Trump on March 5, 2026, marking the first Cabinet departure of his second term [1]. Trump announced her reassignment as Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas and nominated Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) as her replacement [2]. Prediction markets like Polymarket had priced Noem as a top candidate, with her odds surging after rumors of her potential departure [3].
4. Who Received Most Negative Media Coverage Last 30 Days?
| Most Frequent Negative Coverage | Pete Hegseth (last 30 days across Fox News, Newsmax, Truth Social) [1] |
|---|---|
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer Negative Coverage | Outside past 30 days (peaked early February) [1] |
| Howard Lutnick Negative Coverage | Outside past 30 days (February to early March) [1] |
Pete Hegseth has received the most negative media attention recently. Pete Hegseth has garnered the most frequent negative media attention over the past 30 days on platforms commonly consumed by Donald Trump. These platforms include Fox News primetime shows, Newsmax, and his own Truth Social feed.
Specific criticisms of Pete Hegseth appeared across these media platforms. Fox News coverage criticized Hegseth for his rants against media [1], questionable war claims [2], and actions at the Pentagon. These actions included ordering the removal of an Army public affairs chief and firing a "warfare leader" [3]. Newsmax also featured overall negative mentions dominating recent results for Hegseth. On Truth Social, mentions were related to his rants and Trump's posts criticizing media [1].
Negative coverage for other candidates occurred outside the recent 30-day period. In contrast, the negative coverage for Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Howard Lutnick falls outside this specified 30-day timeframe. Lori Chavez-DeRemer's most significant negative coverage peaked in early February, preceding the recent 30-day window. Similarly, Howard Lutnick's coverage concerning Jeffrey Epstein occurred earlier, between February and early March, also outside the recent 30-day period.
Sources (3)
- 1Fox News uses a headline that Hegseth ranted about during demands for a more ‘patriotic press’ | The Independentindependent.co.uk
- 2Pete Hegseth and Fox News Align on New Iran War Justification — That Doesn’t Add Up - NewsBreaknewsbreak.com
- 3Hegseth orders removal of Army public affairs chief amid broader Pentagon purgefoxnews.com
5. Have Influential GOP Leaders Expressed Loss of Confidence in Secretaries?
| GOP Leaders' Confidence in Hegseth | No public loss of confidence expressed by Thune or Johnson [1] |
|---|---|
| GOP Leaders' Confidence in Chavez-DeRemer | No public loss of confidence expressed by Thune or Johnson [2] |
| General GOP Unease on Hegseth | Reported among Republicans and aides [3] |
Influential Republican legislative leaders have not publicly expressed a loss of confidence. Specifically, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson have not offered on-the-record commentary to outlets such as Punchbowl News or Axios, indicating a lack of confidence in either Secretary Hegseth or Secretary Chavez-DeRemer. Despite general unease reported within the GOP regarding Hegseth and internal challenges for Chavez-DeRemer, no top legislative leader has directly voiced a loss of confidence.
Republican unease concerning Secretary Hegseth is reported among some GOP senators and aides [3]. However, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has refrained from direct criticism, instead consistently deferring to former President Trump regarding Hegseth's future [1]. This aligns with the absence of leaked intelligence or on-the-record statements from influential Republican legislative leaders expressing a loss of confidence in Hegseth [1].
For Secretary Chavez-DeRemer, reports detail internal issues, such as top aides resigning [4], alongside speculative commentary about her potential Cabinet exit [5]. Nevertheless, no evidence suggests influential Republican legislative leaders, including House Speaker Mike Johnson or Senator Thune, have publicly expressed a 'loss of confidence' in her to media outlets like Punchbowl News or Axios [2].
Sources (5)
- 1GOP senators, lacking confidence in Pete Hegseth, say his future is Trump's calldigital-staging.thehill.com
- 2Republican unity crumbles as America's mood soursaxios.com
- 3Republicans Have Lost Confidence in Pete Hegsethpoliticalwire.com
- 4Top aides to Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer told to resign within 24 hoursabcnews4.com
- 5Commentary: Will Oregon's Chavez-DeRemer be the first Cabinet official out? - Keizertimeskeizertimes.com
6. What is the status of Defense and Labor Secretary successors?
| Defense Secretary's Active Role | Pete Hegseth participating in meetings with President Trump and defense CEOs in March 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Defense Secretary's Official Capacity | Pete Hegseth receiving correspondence from U.S. Senators in his official capacity [2] |
| Labor Secretary's Current Status | Lori Chavez-DeRemer remains in position as Labor Secretary [3] |
As of March 2026, no verifiable reporting confirms specific successor vetting for Defense or Labor secretaries. Established White House correspondents at The New York Times, The Washington Post, or Politico have not reported that a specific potential successor for either the Defense or Labor secretary posts has been formally vetted or has recently met with Donald Trump at the White House or Mar-a-Lago. Both Pete Hegseth and Lori Chavez-DeRemer continue to serve in their respective cabinet roles.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth remains active despite prior replacement speculation. Although The Washington Post reported in December 2024 that President Trump was considering replacing him [4], subsequent reporting from March 2026 confirms Hegseth's continued participation in meetings with President Trump and defense CEOs [1]. He has also received correspondence from U.S. Senators in his official capacity [2]. Crucially, the specified news organizations have not identified any specific successor as formally vetted or having recently met with Trump for the Defense Secretary position.
Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer also continues in her role, despite internal department issues. Recent reports from outlets, including the New York Post and Times, have focused on internal investigations and the resignations of top aides within the Labor Department [3]. However, these reports do not mention any specific potential successors being formally vetted or meeting with Donald Trump concerning the Labor Secretary post [3].
Sources (4)
- 1Iran war: Trump meets with defense CEOs, Pete Hegsethcnbc.com
- 2https://www.kelly.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/3.16.26-MK-Letter-to-Hegseth-Final.pdfkelly.senate.gov
- 3Top aides to Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer told to resign within 24 hoursabcnews4.com
- 4Hegseth defiant as Trump considers replacing him as defense secretary pickwashingtonpost.com
7. Why Might Pete Hegseth Have More Job Security Than Lori Chavez-DeRemer?
| Hegseth's Public Support | Vocal MAGA supporter on Fox News (2017-2024) [1] |
|---|---|
| Chavez-DeRemer's Endorsement | Endorsed Trump in March 2024 [2] |
| Chavez-DeRemer's Bipartisan Record | Ranked second-most bipartisan by Lugar Center [3] |
Pete Hegseth demonstrates extensive, documented loyalty to Donald Trump. As a co-host on Fox News from 2017 to 2024, Hegseth consistently supported Trump's MAGA agenda, advocating for policies and frequently criticizing "woke" elements within the military [1]. He fostered a close relationship through multiple interviews with Trump, and his eventual nomination is seen as a reward for his unwavering loyalty, despite initial criticism of Trump in 2016 [4]. Trump himself has indicated his support for Hegseth amidst media scrutiny [5].
Lori Chavez-DeRemer's public alignment with Donald Trump is more recent. Her endorsement of Trump came in March 2024, indicating a less extensive history of support compared to Hegseth [2]. As a House member, Chavez-DeRemer has maintained a bipartisan voting record, including being ranked the second-most bipartisan by the Lugar Center, which suggests a less ideologically driven public persona [3]. Given Donald Trump's demonstrated value for unwavering personal loyalty and public defense, Hegseth's long-standing and vocal support provides him with greater resilience against potential dismissal compared to Chavez-DeRemer's more recent endorsement and less consistently ideological public record [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Pete Hegsethen.wikipedia.org
- 2Oregon Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer endorses Trumporegoncapitalchronicle.com
- 3Lori Chavez-DeRemer - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4Pete Hegseth, Trump's pick for defense secretary, once slammed him for 'shallowness' on foreign policy - ABC Newsabcnews.com
- 5Pete Hegseth Says Trump Backing Him Against Media 'Hyenas'mediaite.com
- 6Opinion: With Fox's Hegseth, Trump rewards loyalty, not experiencechieftain.com
8. How Will Mullin's Confirmation Impact Trump's Cabinet Departures?
| Key Event | Markwayne Mullin DHS Secretary Confirmation Hearing [1] |
|---|---|
| Scheduled Date | March 18, 2026 [1] |
| Catalyst Role | Mullin's nomination to replace Kristi Noem, influencing 'Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?' prediction market [1] |
Markwayne Mullin's confirmation hearing is set for March 18, 2026. The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will conduct this hearing for Mullin, who has been nominated as the next Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security [1]. He is slated to replace Kristi Noem, whose tenure faced scrutiny including allegations of misleading Congress and controversies related to immigration enforcement [1].
This high-profile hearing could significantly influence political prediction markets. It is poised to act as a major catalyst for prediction markets such as the "Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?" event on Polymarket [2]. By addressing a cabinet replacement and reviewing the department's past and future performance, the proceedings may intensify political and public pressure on other current secretaries. Such scrutiny could confirm previous cabinet departures or prompt additional resignations and dismissals, thereby affecting the resolution of these prediction markets tracking potential cabinet changes [2].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The recent departure of Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on March 5, 2026, due to widespread criticism over immigration enforcement failures, agency shutdowns, and personal scandals, marked the first and most significant Cabinet change [1]. Her replacement by Senator Markwayne Mullin was confirmed on March 23, 2026, and as of late March 2026, no further Cabinet departures have been reported [2]. This period has seen a comparatively lower rate of turnover than the administration's first term.
Looking ahead, potential catalysts for future changes in the Cabinet largely revolve around new scandals or significant policy failures, particularly concerning immigration or disaster response [3]. Additionally, increasing pressure from the Republican Party in anticipation of midterm elections could prompt further Cabinet reshuffles, though the current environment suggests a more stable landscape compared to previous administrations [4].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 20, 2029
- Closes: January 20, 2029
Sources (4)
- 1Less personnel drama but still sky-high turnover one year into Trump’s new term: NPRnpr.org
- 2Kristi Noem out as DHS secretary, Trump taps Sen. Markwayne Mullin to replace her | CNN Politicsus.cnn.com
- 3Donald Trump's Cabinet, 2025-2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4Trump fires Kristi Noem as homeland security secretary: NPRnpr.org
11. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 19 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXCABOUT-29JAN-TGAB: NO (Mar 07, 2026)
- KXCABOUT-29JAN-SWIL: NO (Mar 07, 2026)
- KXCABOUT-29JAN-STUR: NO (Mar 07, 2026)
- KXCABOUT-29JAN-SDUF: NO (Mar 07, 2026)
- KXCABOUT-29JAN-SBES: NO (Mar 07, 2026)
