Steve Hilton
Market Model 4.4% 3.8%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 95.8% 96.2%
Governor Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (38)
Wisconsin Governor winner? Kalshi
Tom Tiffany
Market Model 19.0% 25.1%
David Crowley
Market Model 80.0% 74.9%
Jermaine Johnson
Market Model 5.0% 4.3%
Alan Wilson
Market Model 94.0% 95.7%
Wyoming Governor winner? Kalshi
Eric Barlow
Market Model 98.0% 99.0%
Kenneth Casner
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Oregon Governor winner? Kalshi
Christine Drazan
Market Model 12.0% 10.1%
Tina Kotek
Market Model 88.0% 89.9%
Tennessee Governor winner? Kalshi
Jerri Green
Market Model 4.8% 4.7%
Marsha Blackburn
Market Model 98.0% 95.3%
Oklahoma Governor winner? Kalshi
Cyndi Munson
Market Model 9.2% 5.9%
Republican party
Market Model 91.0% 94.1%
Maine Governor winner? Kalshi
Hannah Pingree
Market Model 92.4% 95.9%
Robert Charles
Market Model 4.1% 3.1%
Democratic party
Market Model 4.8% 2.8%
Republican party
Market Model 95.6% 97.2%
Michigan Governor winner? Kalshi
John James
Market Model 11.0% 13.7%
Mike Duggan
Market Model 0.9% 0.4%
Minnesota Governor winner? Kalshi
Lisa Demuth
Market Model 5.8% 3.4%
Amy Klobuchar
Market Model 94.5% 96.6%
Arkansas Governor winner? Kalshi
Fred Love
Market Model 4.4% 2.5%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Market Model 99.8% 97.5%
Illinois Governor winner? Kalshi
JB Pritzker
Market Model 95.7% 97.4%
Darren Bailey
Market Model 4.4% 2.6%
Colorado Governor winner? Kalshi
Victor Marx
Market Model 4.9% 4.2%
Phil Weiser
Market Model 95.0% 95.8%
Alabama Governor winner? Kalshi
Doug Jones
Market Model 9.9% 9.8%
Tommy Tuberville
Market Model 91.2% 90.2%
Mike Minogue
Market Model 6.9% 5.8%
Maura Healey
Market Model 94.1% 94.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 98.0% 88.0%
Republican party
Market Model 6.7% 9.2%
Vermont Governor winner? Kalshi
Phil Scott
Market Model 90.0% 94.4%
Amanda Janoo
Market Model 7.4% 5.6%
Nevada Governor winner? Kalshi
Aaron Ford
Market Model 40.0% 31.9%
Joe Lombardo
Market Model 62.0% 68.1%
Maryland Governor winner? Kalshi
Dan Cox
Market Model 6.3% 6.1%
Wes Moore
Market Model 97.4% 93.9%
Hawaii Governor winner? Kalshi
Josh Green
Market Model 95.9% 97.7%
Gary Cordery
Market Model 4.0% 2.3%
Connecticut Governor winner? Kalshi
Ryan Fazio
Market Model 4.9% 4.1%
Ned Lamont
Market Model 99.8% 95.9%
Ohio Governor winner? Kalshi
Vivek Ramaswamy
Market Model 44.0% 52.0%
Amy Acton
Market Model 56.0% 48.0%
Republican party
Market Model 88.0% 87.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 16.0% 13.0%
Idaho Governor winner? Kalshi
Brad Little
Market Model 98.0% 97.1%
Terri Pickens
Market Model 4.1% 2.9%
New Mexico Governor winner? Kalshi
Greggory D. Hull
Market Model 9.3% 9.0%
Deb Haaland
Market Model 94.2% 91.0%
Texas Governor winner? Kalshi
Gina Hinojosa
Market Model 17.0% 14.9%
Greg Abbott
Market Model 83.0% 85.1%
Nebraska Governor winner? Kalshi
Jim Pillen
Market Model 92.4% 88.7%
Lynne Walz
Market Model 9.8% 11.3%
Florida Governor winner? Kalshi
Byron Donalds
Market Model 82.0% 84.2%
David Jolly
Market Model 18.0% 15.8%
Iowa Governor winner? Kalshi
Rob Sand
Market Model 77.0% 80.4%
Zach Lahn
Market Model 22.0% 19.6%
Georgia Governor winner? Kalshi
Rick Jackson
Market Model 43.0% 35.4%
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Market Model 57.0% 64.6%
Stacy Garrity
Market Model 2.6% 2.7%
Josh Shapiro
Market Model 95.5% 97.3%
New York Governor winner? Kalshi
Bruce Blakeman
Market Model 9.6% 8.6%
Kathy Hochul
Market Model 92.2% 91.4%
Arizona Governor winner? Kalshi
Katie Hobbs
Market Model 87.0% 87.2%
Andy Biggs
Market Model 15.0% 12.8%
Kansas Governor winner? Kalshi
Ty Masterson
Market Model 69.0% 67.7%
Cindy Holscher
Market Model 31.0% 32.3%
California Governor winner? Kalshi
Steve Hilton
Market Model 5.3% 4.4%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 95.1% 95.6%
Democratic party
Market Model 39.0% 45.0%
Republican party
Market Model 56.0% 55.0%
Bernadette Wilson
Market Model 22.0% 22.9%
Tom Begich
Market Model 37.0% 31.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Governor winner? (Person) Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 4.4% | 3.8% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Wisconsin Governor winner? Top outcome: Tom Tiffany | 19.0% | 25.1% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| South Carolina Governor winner? Top outcome: Jermaine Johnson | 5.0% | 4.3% | Med | 77 | Refresh |
| Wyoming Governor winner? Top outcome: Eric Barlow | 98.0% | 99.0% | Med | 74 | Refresh |
| Oregon Governor winner? Top outcome: Christine Drazan | 12.0% | 10.1% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Tennessee Governor winner? Top outcome: Jerri Green | 4.8% | 4.7% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Oklahoma Governor winner? Top outcome: Cyndi Munson | 9.2% | 5.9% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Maine Governor winner? Top outcome: Hannah Pingree | 92.4% | 95.9% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| South Dakota Governor winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 4.8% | 2.8% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Michigan Governor winner? Top outcome: John James | 11.0% | 13.7% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Minnesota Governor winner? Top outcome: Lisa Demuth | 5.8% | 3.4% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Arkansas Governor winner? Top outcome: Fred Love | 4.4% | 2.5% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| Illinois Governor winner? Top outcome: JB Pritzker | 95.7% | 97.4% | High | 84 | Refresh |
| Colorado Governor winner? Top outcome: Victor Marx | 4.9% | 4.2% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Alabama Governor winner? Top outcome: Doug Jones | 9.9% | 9.8% | Med | 79 | Refresh |
| Massachusetts Governor winner? Top outcome: Mike Minogue | 6.9% | 5.8% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Rhode Island Governor winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 98.0% | 88.0% | Med | 70 | Refresh |
| Vermont Governor winner? Top outcome: Phil Scott | 90.0% | 94.4% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Nevada Governor winner? Top outcome: Aaron Ford | 40.0% | 31.9% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Maryland Governor winner? Top outcome: Dan Cox | 6.3% | 6.1% | Med | 77 | Refresh |
| Hawaii Governor winner? Top outcome: Josh Green | 95.9% | 97.7% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| Connecticut Governor winner? Top outcome: Ryan Fazio | 4.9% | 4.1% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Ohio Governor winner? Top outcome: Vivek Ramaswamy | 44.0% | 52.0% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| New Hampshire Governor winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 88.0% | 87.0% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Idaho Governor winner? Top outcome: Brad Little | 98.0% | 97.1% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| New Mexico Governor winner? Top outcome: Greggory D. Hull | 9.3% | 9.0% | Med | 75 | Refresh |
| Texas Governor winner? Top outcome: Gina Hinojosa | 17.0% | 14.9% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Nebraska Governor winner? Top outcome: Jim Pillen | 92.4% | 88.7% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Florida Governor winner? Top outcome: Byron Donalds | 82.0% | 84.2% | High | 84 | Refresh |
| Iowa Governor winner? Top outcome: Rob Sand | 77.0% | 80.4% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Georgia Governor winner? Top outcome: Rick Jackson | 43.0% | 35.4% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania Governor winner? Top outcome: Stacy Garrity | 2.6% | 2.7% | Med | 78 | Refresh |
| New York Governor winner? Top outcome: Bruce Blakeman | 9.6% | 8.6% | High | 84 | Refresh |
| Arizona Governor winner? Top outcome: Katie Hobbs | 87.0% | 87.2% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Kansas Governor winner? Top outcome: Ty Masterson | 69.0% | 67.7% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| California Governor winner? Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 5.3% | 4.4% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor winner? (Party) Top outcome: Democratic party | 39.0% | 45.0% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor winner? (Person) Top outcome: Bernadette Wilson | 22.0% | 22.9% | High | 81 | Refresh |
