At least 4.5%
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
At least 3.5%
Market Model 8.0% 4.0%
Governor Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (40)
Bottoms by 0+
Market Model 6.0% 3.0%
Ossoff by 15-18
Market Model 8.0% 4.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 88.0% 87.1%
Republican party
Market Model 13.0% 12.9%
Alaska Governor winner? Kalshi
Tom Begich
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Market Model 89.0% 83.0%
Steve Hilton
Market Model 3.4% 3.4%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 96.8% 96.6%
Stacy Garrity
Market Model 3.0% 2.2%
Josh Shapiro
Market Model 97.1% 97.8%
Arizona Governor winner? Kalshi
Andy Biggs
Market Model 8.6% 7.2%
Katie Hobbs
Market Model 91.9% 92.8%
Florida Governor winner? Kalshi
Byron Donalds
Market Model 79.0% 74.5%
David Jolly
Market Model 23.0% 25.5%
Texas Governor winner? Kalshi
Gina Hinojosa
Market Model 36.0% 28.7%
Greg Abbott
Market Model 65.0% 71.3%
New York Governor winner? Kalshi
Bruce Blakeman
Market Model 5.5% 4.0%
Kathy Hochul
Market Model 94.9% 96.0%
New Mexico Governor winner? Kalshi
Greggory D. Hull
Market Model 6.7% 4.9%
Deb Haaland
Market Model 94.0% 95.1%
Cinde Warmington
Market Model 6.1% 6.0%
Kelly Ayotte
Market Model 94.8% 94.0%
Nebraska Governor winner? Kalshi
Jim Pillen
Market Model 89.0% 84.3%
Lynne Walz
Market Model 12.0% 15.7%
Idaho Governor winner? Kalshi
Brad Little
Market Model 97.7% 97.1%
Terri Pickens
Market Model 3.4% 2.9%
Iowa Governor winner? Kalshi
Zach Lahn
Market Model 14.0% 12.9%
Rob Sand
Market Model 86.0% 87.1%
Georgia Governor winner? Kalshi
Rick Jackson
Market Model 42.0% 43.8%
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Market Model 59.0% 56.2%
Helena Foulkes
Market Model 94.7% 95.6%
Ken Block
Market Model 4.0% 3.7%
Ohio Governor winner? Kalshi
Vivek Ramaswamy
Market Model 21.0% 23.6%
Amy Acton
Market Model 80.0% 76.4%
Wyoming Governor winner? Kalshi
Kenneth Casner
Market Model 1.4% 1.3%
Eric Barlow
Market Model 97.9% 98.7%
Wisconsin Governor winner? Kalshi
Tom Tiffany
Market Model 20.0% 21.5%
David Crowley
Market Model 80.0% 78.5%
Vermont Governor winner? Kalshi
Phil Scott
Market Model 77.0% 79.8%
Amanda Janoo
Market Model 24.0% 20.2%
Tennessee Governor winner? Kalshi
Jerri Green
Market Model 6.0% 5.1%
David Hatley
Market Model 2.0% 2.0%
Kansas Governor winner? Kalshi
Ty Masterson
Market Model 76.0% 80.7%
Cindy Holscher
Market Model 25.0% 19.3%
Dan Ahlers
Market Model 2.4% 1.4%
Larry Rhoden
Market Model 97.6% 98.6%
Jermaine Johnson
Market Model 6.8% 6.8%
Alan Wilson
Market Model 93.4% 93.2%
Oregon Governor winner? Kalshi
Christine Drazan
Market Model 19.0% 22.5%
Tina Kotek
Market Model 82.0% 77.5%
Oklahoma Governor winner? Kalshi
Cyndi Munson
Market Model 11.0% 10.0%
Mike Mazzei
Market Model 90.0% 90.0%
Nevada Governor winner? Kalshi
Aaron Ford
Market Model 66.0% 64.0%
Joe Lombardo
Market Model 34.0% 36.0%
Minnesota Governor winner? Kalshi
Lisa Demuth
Market Model 5.3% 3.9%
Amy Klobuchar
Market Model 95.8% 96.1%
Michigan Governor winner? Kalshi
John James
Market Model 8.6% 5.0%
Mike Duggan
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Mike Minogue
Market Model 3.8% 2.8%
Maura Healey
Market Model 96.2% 97.2%
Illinois Governor winner? Kalshi
JB Pritzker
Market Model 96.9% 96.7%
Darren Bailey
Market Model 3.9% 3.3%
Connecticut Governor winner? Kalshi
Ryan Fazio
Market Model 4.1% 3.0%
Ned Lamont
Market Model 96.5% 97.0%
Alabama Governor winner? Kalshi
Doug Jones
Market Model 5.9% 4.4%
Tommy Tuberville
Market Model 93.9% 95.6%
Colorado Governor winner? Kalshi
Victor Marx
Market Model 4.3% 3.1%
Phil Weiser
Market Model 96.9% 96.9%
Maryland Governor winner? Kalshi
Dan Cox
Market Model 2.9% 2.9%
Wes Moore
Market Model 97.1% 97.1%
Maine Governor winner? Kalshi
Robert Charles
Market Model 6.0% 4.3%
Hannah Pingree
Market Model 94.8% 94.0%
Hawaii Governor winner? Kalshi
Josh Green
Market Model 98.7% 98.5%
Gary Cordery
Market Model 2.6% 1.5%
Arkansas Governor winner? Kalshi
Fred Love
Market Model 3.2% 2.3%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Market Model 96.9% 97.7%
California Governor winner? Kalshi
Steve Hilton
Market Model 5.3% 4.4%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 95.1% 95.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Governor election: None of These Candidates vote share? Top outcome: At least 4.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Georgia: Bottoms's margin vs. Ossoff's margin? Top outcome: Bottoms by 0+ | 6.0% | 3.0% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor winner? (Party) Top outcome: Democratic party | 88.0% | 87.1% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor winner? Top outcome: Tom Begich | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | 86 | Refresh |
| California Governor winner? (Person) Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 3.4% | 3.4% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania Governor winner? Top outcome: Stacy Garrity | 3.0% | 2.2% | High | — | Refresh |
| Arizona Governor winner? Top outcome: Andy Biggs | 8.6% | 7.2% | High | — | Refresh |
| Florida Governor winner? Top outcome: Byron Donalds | 79.0% | 74.5% | High | — | Refresh |
| Texas Governor winner? Top outcome: Gina Hinojosa | 36.0% | 28.7% | Med | — | Refresh |
| New York Governor winner? Top outcome: Bruce Blakeman | 5.5% | 4.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| New Mexico Governor winner? Top outcome: Greggory D. Hull | 6.7% | 4.9% | High | — | Refresh |
| New Hampshire Governor winner? Top outcome: Cinde Warmington | 6.1% | 6.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| Nebraska Governor winner? Top outcome: Jim Pillen | 89.0% | 84.3% | High | — | Refresh |
| Idaho Governor winner? Top outcome: Brad Little | 97.7% | 97.1% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Iowa Governor winner? Top outcome: Zach Lahn | 14.0% | 12.9% | High | — | Refresh |
| Georgia Governor winner? Top outcome: Rick Jackson | 42.0% | 43.8% | High | — | Refresh |
| Rhode Island Governor winner? Top outcome: Helena Foulkes | 94.7% | 95.6% | High | — | Refresh |
| Ohio Governor winner? Top outcome: Vivek Ramaswamy | 21.0% | 23.6% | High | — | Refresh |
| Wyoming Governor winner? Top outcome: Kenneth Casner | 1.4% | 1.3% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Wisconsin Governor winner? Top outcome: Tom Tiffany | 20.0% | 21.5% | High | — | Refresh |
| Vermont Governor winner? Top outcome: Phil Scott | 77.0% | 79.8% | High | — | Refresh |
| Tennessee Governor winner? Top outcome: Jerri Green | 6.0% | 5.1% | High | — | Refresh |
| Kansas Governor winner? Top outcome: Ty Masterson | 76.0% | 80.7% | Med | 84 | Refresh |
| South Dakota Governor winner? Top outcome: Dan Ahlers | 2.4% | 1.4% | High | — | Refresh |
| South Carolina Governor winner? Top outcome: Jermaine Johnson | 6.8% | 6.8% | High | — | Refresh |
| Oregon Governor winner? Top outcome: Christine Drazan | 19.0% | 22.5% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Oklahoma Governor winner? Top outcome: Cyndi Munson | 11.0% | 10.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| Nevada Governor winner? Top outcome: Aaron Ford | 66.0% | 64.0% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Minnesota Governor winner? Top outcome: Lisa Demuth | 5.3% | 3.9% | High | — | Refresh |
| Michigan Governor winner? Top outcome: John James | 8.6% | 5.0% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Massachusetts Governor winner? Top outcome: Mike Minogue | 3.8% | 2.8% | High | — | Refresh |
| Illinois Governor winner? Top outcome: JB Pritzker | 96.9% | 96.7% | High | — | Refresh |
| Connecticut Governor winner? Top outcome: Ryan Fazio | 4.1% | 3.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| Alabama Governor winner? Top outcome: Doug Jones | 5.9% | 4.4% | High | — | Refresh |
| Colorado Governor winner? Top outcome: Victor Marx | 4.3% | 3.1% | High | — | Refresh |
| Maryland Governor winner? Top outcome: Dan Cox | 2.9% | 2.9% | High | — | Refresh |
| Maine Governor winner? Top outcome: Robert Charles | 6.0% | 4.3% | High | — | Refresh |
| Hawaii Governor winner? Top outcome: Josh Green | 98.7% | 98.5% | High | — | Refresh |
| Arkansas Governor winner? Top outcome: Fred Love | 3.2% | 2.3% | High | — | Refresh |
| California Governor winner? Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 5.3% | 4.4% | High | — | Refresh |
