Short Answer

Jon Ossoff's Senate margin minus Keisha Lance Bottoms's governor margin is expected to fall between 3 and 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, priced as highly likely at 99.0% despite past election results showing a 9.4 percentage point difference. The model assigns this outcome a 37.1% probability, a significant divergence.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market consistently priced a low probability of Keisha Lance Bottoms's gubernatorial margin exceeding Jon Ossoff's Senate margin. The price remained stable within a narrow 1-6% band, reflecting persistent market expectations that were ultimately confirmed by election results. On November 3, Ossoff secured a 20.90 percentage point win, while Bottoms won by 10.68 points, making Ossoff's margin substantially larger.

The major price movements detailed in the provided context, such as a post-election 90-point spike and large pre-election drops, are inconsistent with this market's trading history. Those events appear to relate to a different contract with a more specific resolution condition. No reported news or developments coincide with the minor price drift observed in this market. The low total volume of 197 contracts further indicates that the primary price action occurred elsewhere.

The market's leading outcome, Ossoff's margin 3-6 points, was disproved by actual election results.
Ossoff's 18% margin and Bottoms's 8.6% margin confirmed the 9-12 point range.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
Bottoms by 0+	6.0%	3.0%	Ossoff's actual margin was greater than Bottoms's, contradicting the condition.
Ossoff by 15-18	8.0%	4.0%	The actual margin difference of 9.4 points was lower than this range.
Ossoff by 9-12	75.0%	53.0%	The actual margin difference of 9.4 points fell squarely within this range.
Ossoff by 3-6	99.0%	37.1%	The actual margin difference of 9.4 points fell outside this range.
Ossoff by 6-9	1.0%	0.6%	The actual margin difference of 9.4 points fell just outside this range.

Current Context

Democrats Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jon Ossoff secured decisive victories in Georgia's 2026 elections. Bottoms won the governor's race by a margin of 10.68 percentage points (55.34% to 44.66%), a difference of 354,699 votes ^[1]. This made her the first Black woman elected governor in U.S. history, Georgia's first female governor, and the state's first Black governor, ending a Republican gubernatorial tenure since 2003 ^[2]. Ossoff, in the Senate race, achieved a 20.90 percentage point margin (60.45% to 39.55%), a difference of 661,388 votes, nearly double Bottoms's margin ^[1]. His victory helped Democrats gain a 54-44 Senate majority ^[2].

Pre-election polls underestimated both Democratic candidates' final margins. Polling for the governor's race was tighter, with Pollsmax averaging a +0.3 Democratic lead and most polls showing a tie or within 2 points, yet Bottoms won by 10.68 points ^[3]. In the Senate race, Ossoff led polls by 7-10 points (Pollsmax average +8.6; NYT polls showed +7 to +15), but his actual margin of 20.9 points exceeded all predictions ^[3]. Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson invested over $200 million of his own fortune into his campaign, but lost by more than 10 points ^[4]. Bottoms's campaign focused on expanding Medicaid, eliminating sales taxes on groceries, removing state taxes on insurance premiums, building housing, and fully funding schools ^[4]. Ossoff raised over $100 million, securing a cash advantage over opponent Mike Collins, and transferred millions to the state's Democratic Party ^[2]. Ossoff was the sole Democratic Senate incumbent defending a seat in a state Donald Trump won in 2024 ^[2].

Democratic success extended beyond the top of the ticket statewide. The Georgia Senate race shifted 20.2 points toward Democrats compared to the 2024 presidential election ^[5]. Democrats also won the state's Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Public Service Commission races ^[6]. Prediction markets Kalshi (KXGASENGOVCOMBO) and Polymarket resolved the Democratic sweep of both races at 99% and 100% respectively, up from a pre-election estimate of 63% for a Democratic sweep by Prediction Market Network analysis on October 29, 2026 ^[7]. The Associated Press called the Senate race at 8:02 PM ET and the governor's race at 9:24 PM ET on November 3, 2026 ^[6]. Georgia's official certification deadline for the November 3, 2026 general election is November 20, 2026 ^[8]. Ossoff has repeatedly dismissed speculation about a 2028 presidential run ^[9].

Sources (9)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Ossoff by 3-6

📈 November 04, 2026: 90.0pp spike

Price increased from 9.0% to 99.0%

What happened: The 90.0 percentage point price spike for the "Ossoff by 3-6" outcome on November 04, 2026, is inconsistent with the actual election results. Jon Ossoff won his Senate race by 18 percentage points, while Keisha Lance Bottoms won the gubernatorial race by 8.6 percentage points, meaning Ossoff's margin was 9.4 points greater than Bottoms's ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]. This actual difference falls outside the 3-6 range specified in the outcome, suggesting the outcome should have resolved to "No" post-election. There is no evidence of social media activity or traditional news reports from November 04, 2026, that would cause an accurate belief in this incorrect margin difference. Therefore, social media was irrelevant; the spike likely indicates an anomalous market structure event, such as a large, misinformed trade, rather than a factual driver based on known results.

📉 October 29, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 16.0% to 7.0%

What happened: The provided research does not contain specific social media posts, news announcements, or market events directly dated October 29, 2026, to explain the prediction market price movement. The 9.0 percentage point drop for the "Ossoff by 3-6" outcome indicates a strong market belief that Ossoff's actual margin would fall outside this specific range ^[7]^[8]. This shift likely reflected growing anticipation of a larger victory, as Ossoff's actual 18-point margin significantly exceeded his pre-election polling average of 9.4-9.8 points by about 9 points ^[7]^[8]^[9]. Therefore, without specific, dated evidence, social media cannot be identified as a primary driver; the movement likely stemmed from evolving broader expectations regarding Ossoff's strong performance.

📉 October 28, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 19.0% to 10.0%

What happened:

The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "Ossoff by 3-6" outcome was the cumulative impact of Jon Ossoff's highly effective social media campaign, which led the market to anticipate a larger difference between Ossoff's and Bottoms's margins than previously priced. Ossoff's campaign employed a "deliberately controlled viral strategy" using short-form videos on TikTok and Instagram, generating viral narratives like 'Holy Daddy' and praising his 'presidential swag' that garnered millions of views and were amplified by fan accounts and the DNC ^[10]. This sustained social media dominance, where Democratic-framed posts outnumbered Republican ones significantly between August and October, likely led to a late-stage market realization of Ossoff's considerable momentum beyond initial polling estimates ^[10]. The price drop on October 28, 2026, likely reflected this re-evaluation, moving away from the "Ossoff by 3-6" margin difference towards a larger differential, closer to the actual outcome where Ossoff's margin over Bottoms's was 9.38 percentage points ^[4].

Social media was a primary driver, as the ongoing, strategically viral content and overall online dominance likely led to a re-evaluation of Ossoff's expected performance and the relative margins.

Outcome: Ossoff by 12-15

📈 November 03, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 12.0% to 20.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point spike on November 03, 2026, was likely the culmination of heightened expectations for Jon Ossoff's electoral performance, which originated from viral social media activity months prior ^[11]^[12]^[13]. Ossoff's campaign speeches, including his 'travel with Natalie' remark, spread widely on X and TikTok in July and August 2026, causing his polling to spike and generating saturation news coverage ^[14]^[11]^[12]^[13]^[15]. This sustained narrative of Ossoff's strong lead, initially fueled by social media, likely influenced the interpretation of early election day results or projections, leading to a sudden surge in market confidence for the outcome "Ossoff by 12-15" on election day ^[14]^[11]^[12]^[13]. Therefore, social media acted as a primary driver, laying the groundwork for the optimistic market reaction to election-day information.

📉 November 02, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 20.0% to 12.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point price drop for the "Ossoff by 12-15" outcome on November 02, 2026, was the dissemination of pre-election polling aggregates. These polls, available through November 2, 2026, indicated Jon Ossoff led his Senate race by an average of 9.4 points, while Keisha Lance Bottoms's gubernatorial race was polled as an approximate tie (49-49) ^[7]^[16]^[17]. This implied an expected difference between Ossoff's and Bottoms's margins of approximately 9.4 percentage points, making the higher "Ossoff by 12-15" range appear less probable and leading to a market price adjustment downwards. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified.

Sources (17)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market, "Georgia: Bottoms’s margin vs. Ossoff’s margin?", features a contract titled "Ossoff by 9-12". The "YES" option resolves if Ossoff's margin of victory falls within 9 and 12 points, while the "NO" option resolves if his margin is outside this range. The maximum payout date for this market is December 1, 2026, and no specific settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.

Source: Kalshi market page for "Georgia: Bottoms’s margin vs. Ossoff’s margin?" (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgabottomsossoff/georgia-bottoms-vs-ossoff-margin/kxgabottomsossoff-26dec01)

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
Ossoff by 3-6	$0.85	$0.98	99%
Ossoff by 9-12	$0.95	$0.96	75%
Ossoff by 15-18	$0.52	$0.98	8%
Bottoms by 0+	$0.11	$0.99	6%
Ossoff by 0-3	$0.22	$0.98	2%
Ossoff by 12-15	$0.91	$0.98	1%
Ossoff by 18+	$0.01	$1.00	1%
Ossoff by 6-9	$0.02	$0.99	1%

Market Discussion

Keisha Lance Bottoms won the Georgia governor race and Jon Ossoff secured the Senate seat, confirming a Democratic sweep ^[1]. Prediction markets, however, indicated a significant disparity in their projected margins; as of November 4, 2026, Ossoff's Senate margin was projected around 18-19 percentage points, while Bottoms's governor margin was projected to be a much narrower 8-9 percentage points ^[2]. This difference was reinforced by models and market probabilities, with the Georgia Election Monitor projecting a D+7.7 Senate margin but a potentially tighter governor outcome, and Ossoff's implied probability of winning standing at 96.9% compared to Bottoms's near 68% ^[3].

Sources (3)

5. Trust Index

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score87Strong

Trade quality20% of score38High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score77Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. How did the campaign strategies and fundraising numbers for Jon Ossoff's Senate race compare to those of Keisha Lance Bottoms's gubernatorial race in the 2026 cycle?

Jon Ossoff Total Campaign Fundraising	Over $60 million ^[1]
Jon Ossoff Cash on Hand	$32.5-33 million ^[1]^[2]
Rick Jackson Self-Financed Spending	At least $108 million ^[3]

Jon Ossoff's campaign leveraged robust small-dollar contributions for substantial funding. His 2026 Senate campaign amassed over $60 million in total contributions, establishing him as a small-donor powerhouse ^[4]. A significant portion, 53%, of these funds came from contributions under $200 ^[4]. During Q3 2026 alone, his campaign reported raising more than $33 million, which included over 760,000 small-dollar contributions averaging $46 ^[1]^[2]. The campaign also maintained a substantial cash on hand, ranging from $32.5 million to $33 million ^[1]^[2].

Keisha Lance Bottoms experienced a late fundraising surge but faced significant disparity. Her 2026 gubernatorial campaign collected $23.2 million since early August 2026, nearly tripling her entire campaign's previous fundraising total ^[5]. This late influx of capital was primarily driven by national Democrats and wealthy donors ^[5]. Despite this boost, her campaign encountered a substantial financial gap when compared to Republican opponent Rick Jackson, who personally spent at least $108 million on advertising ^[3]^[6]. In stark contrast, Bottoms's campaign and its allies spent approximately $8 million in the lead-up to November, highlighting a considerable funding difference in a race that was considered a statistical dead heat ^[3]^[6].

Sources (6)

7. What evidence from polling methodology and historical election performance in Georgia suggested that 2026 polling might underestimate Democratic support, particularly for Ossoff?

NYT/Siena analysis date	November 1, 2026 ^[1]
Kalshi market consensus	97% Yes ^[2]
Ossoff fundraising	$115.9M ^[3]

Polling methodologies and Georgia's historical electoral performance suggested that 2026 polling might underestimate Democratic support for Jon Ossoff ^[1]^[4]. A structural bias in polling and historical electoral volatility were key factors contributing to this assessment ^[1]^[4]. The November 1, 2026, NYT/Siena analysis explicitly noted a precedent in the Trump era where polls tended to overestimate Republicans. This was attributed to lower poll response rates from Trump supporters, a structural bias that could cause polls to underestimate Democratic strength in the 2026 midterms ^[1]. Additionally, Georgia's electoral history from 2020 to 2024 showed extreme volatility, with a pattern of Democratic underperformance in polls followed by actual Democratic strength (or vice versa), which created uncertainty about polling accuracy in 2026 ^[4].

Strong market consensus and campaign funding dynamics suggested Ossoff's actual margin was higher ^[2]^[3]^[5]. A dedicated Kalshi market, which asked whether Jon Ossoff would outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia, was priced at 97% Yes ^[2]. This high percentage signaled a near-universal trader consensus that polling would underestimate Ossoff's actual performance ^[2]. Furthermore, Ossoff raised at least $115.9 million for the 2026 cycle, securing a massive fundraising advantage over Collins ^[3]^[5]. Republican-aligned outside groups also significantly reduced their spending in the final weeks, a move interpreted as many Republicans giving up on flipping the seat, suggesting the true Democratic margin may have been larger than polls indicated ^[3]^[5].

Sources (5)

8. What historical voting patterns in Georgia's suburban counties pointed toward significant ticket-splitting between the 2026 Senate and Gubernatorial races?

Ticket-splitting rate (2022)	6.1% of voters split tickets between U.S. Senate and Governor races (UGA study) ^[1]
Performance difference (2022 suburban)	Republican gubernatorial candidates performed 6-8 points better than Democratic Senate candidates (suburban counties) ^[2]^[3]
Ossoff lead (2026 Senate polling)	Ossoff led Collins by 7 points (polling) ^[4]^[5]

Georgia's suburban counties historically show significant ticket-splitting. Historical voting patterns in Georgia's suburban counties from 2022, alongside polling leading up to the 2026 elections, point to significant ticket-splitting between gubernatorial and Senate races ^[2]^[3]^[1]^[4]^[5]. This phenomenon demonstrates an electorate willing to support candidates from different political parties for various offices on the same ballot.

The 2022 elections provided concrete examples of this trend. In 2022, suburban counties such as Forsyth, Gwinnett, and Fulton exhibited substantial ticket-splitting ^[2]^[3]. Republican candidates in the gubernatorial race performed 6-8 points better than Democratic candidates did in the Senate race within these counties ^[2]^[3]. A study by the University of Georgia, analyzing 3.7 million cast vote records from 117 Georgia counties, determined that 6.1% of voters split their tickets between the U.S. Senate and Governor races. Specifically, 3.8% of these voters supported Democrat Warnock for Senate while simultaneously voting for Republican Kemp for Governor ^[1].

Future election forecasts consistently indicate continued ticket-splitting patterns. This historical tendency for ticket-splitting was further substantiated by pre-election polling for the 2026 election ^[4]^[5]. Polling data indicated that Ossoff held a 7-point lead over Collins in the Senate race, while Bottoms and Jackson were in a dead heat for Governor ^[4]^[5]. Notably, suburban voters favored Ossoff by 13 points in the Senate race but leaned towards Jackson by 3 points in the gubernatorial contest, underscoring the decisive role of split-ticket voters ^[4]^[5]. The prediction market "Georgia: Bottoms's margin vs. Ossoff's margin?" also reflected expectations of significant ticket-splitting, with Ossoff winning by 9-12 points more than Bottoms's margin priced as the most likely outcome at 43-45% probability ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9].

Sources (9)

9. What did the final pre-election campaign finance disclosures from the FEC (Ossoff) and the Georgia Campaign Finance Commission (Bottoms) reveal about each campaign's financial strength?

Ossoff Total Receipts (cycle-to-date)	$115,904,486 ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Ossoff Fundraising Advantage	11-to-1 over opponent ^[3]
Bottoms Opponent Self-Funding	> $194 million (nearly 85% of total) ^[4]^[5]

Ossoff's campaign showed significant financial strength with strong fundraising and cash on hand. His final pre-election campaign finance disclosures from the FEC reported $115,904,486 in total receipts cycle-to-date and $15,134,336 in cash on hand as of October 14, 2026, positioning him as the second-highest fundraising Senate candidate nationally ^[1]^[2]^[3]. The campaign primarily utilized a small-donor powerhouse model, with nearly 97% of the 760,000 donations received during Q3 being less than $100, averaging $46 ^[6]. This financial dominance provided Ossoff with an approximate 11-to-1 fundraising advantage over his opponent, Rep. Mike Collins, whose fundraising was considerably lower, which also led outside groups to reduce their spending in Georgia ^[3]^[7].

Bottoms's gubernatorial campaign faced a substantial financial gap against her self-funded opponent. While Keisha Lance Bottoms's campaign reported raising over $30 million since August 1, 2026, including leadership committee funds, and showed $13,138,686 in total contributions with $11,113,509 in expenditures through October 24, 2026, Rick Jackson's financial resources were considerably greater due to his extensive self-funding ^[4]^[8]^[9]. Jackson raised at least $120 million during the same period, with his personal contribution of more than $194 million accounting for nearly 85% of his $230,117,571 total raised ^[4]^[5]. This disparity was particularly evident in advertising, where Bottoms's campaign and allies spent only about $8 million on ads, contrasting sharply with Jackson's $108 million ^[4]^[5]^[10].

Sources (10)

10. How did the candidate quality and campaign weaknesses of the Republican opponents, Mike Collins (Senate) and Rick Jackson (Governor), create different electoral landscapes for Ossoff and Bottoms?

Jon Ossoff Victory Margin	18 points ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]
Keisha Lance Bottoms Victory Margin	8.6 points ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]
Difference in Victory Margins	approximately 9.4 points ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]

Senator Jon Ossoff achieved a significantly wider victory margin than Keisha Lance Bottoms. Ossoff secured an 18-point victory in the Senate race, a substantially larger margin compared to Bottoms's 8.6-point win in the governor's race. This 9.4-point difference stemmed from distinct electoral landscapes, primarily shaped by the differing candidate quality and campaign weaknesses of their Republican opponents, Mike Collins and Rick Jackson ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9]. Collins's Senate campaign faced significant scrutiny over reported ties to individuals with white nationalist and antisemitic views, a House Ethics Committee review regarding alleged fund misuse, and his continued promotion of false 2020 election fraud claims ^[10]^[11]^[12]. These issues alienated key voter groups, enabling Ossoff to effectively portray Collins as extreme and exploit his vulnerabilities. Ossoff's aggressive anti-Trump campaign, which included viral speeches, also bolstered his fundraising and national donor support, contributing to his substantial win and shifting the Georgia Senate race 20.2 points toward Democrats compared to the 2024 presidential election ^[1]^[11]^[12]^[13]^[3].

In contrast, Rick Jackson’s well-funded campaign created a tight gubernatorial race. Jackson, a first-time candidate and healthcare CEO, launched his gubernatorial campaign late in February 2026, initially lacking endorsements from figures like Trump or Governor Brian Kemp, who backed his primary rival ^[14]^[5]^[13]. Despite Jackson self-funding over $100 million, with some sources reporting a total of $200 million, the gubernatorial contest remained "neck and neck" for much of the campaign ^[14]^[5]^[13]^[3]. Ultimately, Bottoms gained momentum as Election Day approached, securing an 8.6 percentage point victory ^[4]^[5]^[13]^[3].

Sources (14)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 Georgia elections produced distinct outcomes. Jon Ossoff (D) secured the Senate race against Mike Collins (R) with approximately 59% of the vote to 41%, resulting in an 18-percentage-point margin ^[1]. This outcome significantly surpassed pre-election poll averages, which placed Ossoff at +9.6 points ^[2]. For the gubernatorial contest, Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) defeated Rick Jackson (R) by 54.2% to 45.8%, a margin of approximately 8.4-8.6 percentage points ^[3]^[1]. Bottoms's victory marks her as the first Black woman elected governor of any state ^[3]. While the Senate race was a clear Democratic win, the gubernatorial contest proved much closer, having been characterized by polls as a toss-up or slight Jackson lead prior to Election Day ^[3]^[1]^[4]^[5]. Pre-election prediction markets, such as Kalshi, had Ossoff at 95.65-96.9% for Senate and Bottoms at 59.5% for Governor, following an earlier Jackson lead ^[6].

The primary market-moving factor for the Georgia governor's race centers on data center policy ^[7]. A Democratic win by Bottoms triggers a statewide data-center freeze, which is negative for DLR, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, and SO ^[7]. Conversely, a Republican win by Jackson would have resulted in local consent only, considered a neutral outcome ^[7]. The Democratic sweep in Georgia, with wins for both Ossoff and Bottoms, constituted a key component of a broader Democratic wave across the 2026 midterms ^[8]^[9]^[10]^[7]. This broader wave included projected Democratic control of the Senate (75-76% probability pre-election) and the House (94% probability), alongside holding 28 of 50 governorships ^[8]^[9]^[11]^[10].

Bullish catalysts supporting the Democratic performance included robust early voting, totaling 2,705,252 votes compared to 2,289,951 in 2022, and high Black voter turnout ^[4]^[5]^[3]^[12]. Bearish catalysts, from a Democratic perspective, included Jackson's rural strength and lower-than-expected mail ballot returns, with 121,283 accepted out of 165,515 issued ^[4]^[5]^[3]^[12]. Election Day was Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with the Secretary of State anticipating results before 05:00 GMT / 00:00 EST on November 4 ^[7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: March 01, 2027
Closes: December 01, 2026

Sources (12)

12. Keep Exploring

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map. More Senate markets See more senate setups in the same theme. Browse all Elections markets Keep exploring adjacent elections markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

Georgia: Bottoms's margin vs. Ossoff's margin?

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: Ossoff by 3-6

📈 November 04, 2026: 90.0pp spike

📉 October 29, 2026: 9.0pp drop

📉 October 28, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Outcome: Ossoff by 12-15

📈 November 03, 2026: 8.0pp spike

📉 November 02, 2026: 8.0pp drop

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. How did the campaign strategies and fundraising numbers for Jon Ossoff's Senate race compare to those of Keisha Lance Bottoms's gubernatorial race in the 2026 cycle?

7. What evidence from polling methodology and historical election performance in Georgia suggested that 2026 polling might underestimate Democratic support, particularly for Ossoff?

8. What historical voting patterns in Georgia's suburban counties pointed toward significant ticket-splitting between the 2026 Senate and Gubernatorial races?

9. What did the final pre-election campaign finance disclosures from the FEC (Ossoff) and the Georgia Campaign Finance Commission (Bottoms) reveal about each campaign's financial strength?

10. How did the candidate quality and campaign weaknesses of the Republican opponents, Mike Collins (Senate) and Rick Jackson (Governor), create different electoral landscapes for Ossoff and Bottoms?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: Ossoff by 3-6

📈 November 04, 2026: 90.0pp spike

📉 October 29, 2026: 9.0pp drop

📉 October 28, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Outcome: Ossoff by 12-15

📈 November 03, 2026: 8.0pp spike

📉 November 02, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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