Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Mike Mazzei's margin of victory in the Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff to be 0-3%, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Mike Mazzei secured the nomination with a 0.56 percentage point margin.
- Gentner Drummond lost the runoff, therefore achieved no margin of victory.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gentner Drummond, 0-3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | Gentner Drummond lost the runoff election and thus achieved no margin of victory. |
| Mike Mazzei, 0-3% | 99.0% | 100.0% | Mike Mazzei secured victory by a 0.56 percentage point margin, falling within this range. |
| Gentner Drummond, 9-12% | 1.0% | 0.0% | Gentner Drummond lost the runoff election and thus achieved no margin of victory. |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥15% | 1.0% | 0.0% | Mike Mazzei won the runoff by 0.56 percentage points, not at least 15%. |
| Gentner Drummond, ≥15% | 1.0% | 0.0% | Outside deterministic model scope. |
Current Context
Mazzei's victory was by 0.56 percentage points across 371,309 votes. He received 50.28% of the vote compared to Drummond's 49.72% [^]. This margin of victory amounted to approximately 2,000 votes from the 371,309 votes counted [^][^][^][^]. Mike Mazzei was the candidate endorsed by Donald Trump, while Gentner Drummond served as the incumbent state Attorney General [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action was characterized by a sideways trend bookended by a period of sharp volatility ahead of the August 25 resolution date. The price saw a 14.0 percentage point spike around August 18, a move driven by Donald Trump's social media endorsements of Mike Mazzei. A subsequent 11.0 point drop on August 24 lacks a clear external driver based on available information. After Mazzei secured the nomination, the market price collapsed on August 26, dropping 18.0 points to settle at 1.0%. This final move indicates the actual margin of victory fell outside the range specified by this contract.
With a total traded volume of 19,772 contracts, the market showed signs of being thin. Sample data points reveal significant price movement occurring on little to no volume, which suggests that major swings did not necessarily reflect broad market conviction. The price operated within a range defined by a 1.0% floor and a 35.0% peak. Overall, the chart reflects a market sentiment that was highly reactive to late-stage campaign news flow, pricing in a rising probability of a specific electoral outcome before the event failed to materialize as forecast.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Mike Mazzei, 0-3%
📈 August 26, 2026: 84.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 99.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not support the claim of an 84.0 percentage point spike for the "Mike Mazzei, 0-3%" outcome on August 26, 2026 [^]. The Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff on August 25, 2026, was widely described as a close race, with Mike Mazzei ultimately defeating Gentner Drummond by a narrow margin of 0.56-0.6 percentage points [^][^][^]. While President Donald Trump's social media endorsement on Truth Social for Mazzei likely influenced the election's outcome, no evidence ties specific social media activity or news on August 26, 2026, to such a drastic price movement for a closely contested race [^][^][^]. Social media was mostly noise regarding the alleged spike, as the reported movement is unevidenced.
Outcome: Gentner Drummond, 0-3%
📉 August 24, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 24.0% to 13.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for the reported 11.0 percentage point drop in the "Gentner Drummond, 0-3%" outcome on August 24, 2026 [^][^][^]. There is no credible news or social media evidence indicating a catalyst for such a significant market movement or any mid-race withdrawal by Gentner Drummond [^][^][^]. Gentner Drummond did not withdraw; he was defeated in the August 25, 2026, Republican primary runoff by Mike Mazzei, losing by approximately 0.54-0.56 percentage points [^][^]. Therefore, based on the available information, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver, as no corresponding activity or event was found.
Outcome: Mike Mazzei, 6-9%
📉 August 23, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 19.0% to 9.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 10.0 percentage point drop in the "Mike Mazzei, 6-9%" outcome on August 23, 2026, was likely social media activity from President Donald Trump. In the final week of the campaign, coinciding with the market movement, Trump reaffirmed his endorsement of Mike Mazzei and attacked Gentner Drummond as a "FAKE Republican" on Truth Social [^]. While this provided a "significant boost" to Mazzei's campaign [^], the prominent intervention likely signaled to the market that the race was tighter than previously anticipated. This led to a decreased expectation of a wide 6-9% margin of victory, aligning with the eventual narrow 0.56-0.6% win [^]. Social media was a primary driver.
Outcome: Mike Mazzei, 3-6%
📈 August 18, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 19.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the market price movement was significant social media activity from Donald Trump in the final weeks leading up to the August 25, 2026, runoff election [^][^]. Trump repeatedly endorsed Mike Mazzei and issued negative social media attacks against Gentner Drummond, which were cited as key catalysts for Mazzei's campaign [^][^]. This activity likely coincided with or led the August 18, 2026, spike in the "Mike Mazzei, 3-6%" outcome, as it amplified expectations for a stronger Mazzei victory margin [^][^]. Consequently, social media was a primary driver of this prediction market movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution for a specific contract (e.g., "Mike Mazzei, 0-3%") is triggered if the named candidate's margin of victory in the Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff falls within the stated percentage bracket. A "No" resolution occurs if the margin of victory does not meet this condition. This market will settle only after the official results of the Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff are certified.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Mazzei, 0-3% | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Gentner Drummond, 6-9% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 11% |
| Gentner Drummond, ≥15% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Gentner Drummond, 0-3% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Gentner Drummond, 12-15% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Gentner Drummond, 3-6% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Gentner Drummond, 9-12% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥15% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, 12-15% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, 3-6% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, 6-9% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, 9-12% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Mike Mazzei secured the Republican nomination for Governor in the Oklahoma primary runoff on August 25, 2026, defeating Gentner Drummond [^]. Mazzei's margin of victory was approximately 2,000 votes, or roughly 0.6% of the vote [^]. He won with 50.28% of the vote (186,678 votes) compared to Drummond's 49.72% (184,631 votes), a difference of 2,047 votes or 0.56 percentage points [^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Gentner Drummond, 0-3%PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality88Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality88Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
Mike Mazzei, 0-3%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality86Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality86Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
Mike Mazzei, 3-6%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Mike Mazzei, 6-9%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Mike Mazzei, 9-12%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Mike Mazzei, 12-15%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Mike Mazzei, ≥15%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Gentner Drummond, 3-6%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Gentner Drummond, 6-9%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Gentner Drummond, 9-12%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Gentner Drummond, 12-15%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Gentner Drummond, ≥15%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 26, 2026
6. How did Mike Mazzei's and Gentner Drummond's platforms and key endorsements compare in their appeal to different factions of the Oklahoma Republican party?
| Election Winner | Mike Mazzei (August 25, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Mazzei Key Endorsements | Donald Trump, Kevin Stitt, U.S. Rep. Josh Brecheen [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Drummond Key Endorsements | Oklahoma Fraternal Order of Police, 28 county sheriffs [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Mike Mazzei won the 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff. Mazzei's victory on August 25, 2026, highlighted a clear division within the Oklahoma Republican party [^][^][^]. The election demonstrated Mazzei's successful appeal to MAGA-aligned voters, while Gentner Drummond garnered support from more traditional Republicans, with both candidates distinguishing themselves through their distinct platforms and endorsements [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Candidates' platforms and endorsements revealed stark ideological differences. Mazzei's campaign centered on a conservative platform emphasizing tax cuts, government efficiency, and alignment with Donald Trump's policy agenda, including calls for eliminating state property taxes and prohibiting foreign ownership of public lands [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. His key endorsements included Donald Trump, outgoing Governor Kevin Stitt, U.S. Rep. Josh Brecheen, and other conservative lawmakers [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Conversely, Gentner Drummond focused his platform on his experience as Attorney General, practical governance, education reform, and strengthening relationships with tribal communities [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Drummond's support base largely comprised more traditional Republican factions, securing key endorsements from law enforcement unions, specifically the Oklahoma Fraternal Order of Police, numerous state legislators, local officials, and 28 county sheriffs [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
7. What did the final public polling data before the August 25, 2026 runoff suggest about the likely margin between Mazzei and Drummond?
| Drummond/Mazzei Tie (CHS Poll) | 44% each among likely voters (Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, August 6) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Drummond Lead (CHS Poll, undecideds excluded) | Drummond 42%, Mazzei 40% (Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates) [^][^][^][^] |
| Mazzei Lead (Pulse Decision Science Poll) | Mazzei 44%, Drummond 38%, 18% undecided (Pulse Decision Science) [^][^][^][^] |
Final public polling suggested an extremely tight race before the runoff. The data released before the August 25, 2026 runoff election indicated either a statistical dead-heat or a narrow advantage for one candidate. A poll conducted by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, finalized on August 6, showed both Gentner Drummond and Mike Mazzei tied at 44% among likely voters [^][^][^][^][^]. When undecided voters were removed from this same poll, it showed Drummond leading Mazzei by two percentage points, with 42% to 40% respectively [^][^][^][^].
8. Based on historical Oklahoma Republican runoffs, what was the projected voter turnout for the August 2026 election and which candidate stood to benefit from a low vs. high turnout scenario?
| 2026 Runoff Turnout | Approximately 29% of eligible Republican voters [^] |
|---|---|
| Mike Mazzei Vote Share | 50.28% (186,678 votes) [^] |
| Gentner Drummond Vote Share | 49.72% (184,631 votes) [^] |
Oklahoma's 2026 Republican gubernatorial runoff saw reduced voter turnout. The August 25, 2026, Oklahoma Republican primary runoff for governor experienced an approximate 29% voter turnout among eligible Republican voters [^]. This represented a decrease from the 31% observed in the 2018 Republican gubernatorial runoff [^]. In a very close contest, Mike Mazzei defeated Gentner Drummond, securing the nomination. Mazzei won with 50.28% of the vote, totaling 186,678 ballots, while Drummond received 49.72% with 184,631 ballots [^].
Mazzei secured victory despite Drummond's initial lead. Gentner Drummond initially led among mail-in and early voters, but Mike Mazzei overcame this advantage by demonstrating a stronger performance from Election Day voters [^][^]. During their respective campaigns, Gentner Drummond highlighted his record as Attorney General, whereas Mike Mazzei emphasized his endorsement from President Donald Trump [^]. The available research, however, does not explicitly state which candidate would have benefited from a low or high turnout scenario.
9. What did precinct-level results from the June 2026 primary reveal about the geographic bases of support for Mazzei and Drummond heading into the runoff?
| Gentner Drummond Vote Share | 26.3% [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Mike Mazzei Vote Share | 26.0% [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Vote Difference | Less than 1,300 votes [^][^][^][^][^] |
The primary election resulted in a narrow margin, forcing a runoff. On June 16, 2026, Attorney General Gentner Drummond secured 26.3% of the vote in the Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial primary, while former state senator Mike Mazzei received 26.0% [^][^][^][^][^]. This slim difference of fewer than 1,300 votes between the candidates necessitated an August 25, 2026, runoff election [^][^][^][^][^]. Other primary contenders, including Chip Keating and Charles McCall, also exhibited specific regional strongholds [^][^].
Candidates demonstrated distinct geographic support based on election data. Precinct-level and county-level results from the June primary provided clear insights into the geographic bases of support for Mazzei and Drummond [^][^][^][^]. Gentner Drummond found his strength in populous areas, particularly Oklahoma and Tulsa counties [^][^]. In contrast, Mike Mazzei garnered more significant backing in rural regions, with Adair County serving as a key example [^][^].
10. How did the final campaign finance disclosures for Mike Mazzei and Gentner Drummond compare in terms of fundraising, cash-on-hand, and spending priorities?
| Drummond Fundraising (Pre-Runoff) | $2.93 million (June 2–August 10, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Mazzei Self-Funding (Overall) | $11 million [^][^] |
| Drummond Cash-on-Hand | $1,009,347 (as of August 10, 2026) [^][^] |
Drummond significantly out-fundraised Mazzei, relying less on personal loans. During the final pre-runoff disclosure period from June 2 to August 10, 2026, Gentner Drummond raised $2.93 million, predominantly through individual contributions [^][^][^]. In contrast, Mike Mazzei raised $945,919, primarily from individual donors and PACs [^][^][^]. A notable difference in their campaigns was Mazzei's heavy reliance on personal loans, as he contributed $11 million of his own money to his campaign overall, compared to Drummond's $2.5 million in self-contributions [^][^][^][^][^].
Drummond maintained higher cash-on-hand and distinct spending priorities. As of August 10, 2026, Drummond held a significantly larger cash-on-hand balance of $1,009,347, compared to Mazzei’s $151,735 [^][^]. Drummond's campaign expenditures focused on consulting, staffing, and digital and television advertising [^][^][^]. Conversely, Mazzei’s spending priorities centered on television advertisements and campaign staffing, with his total expenditures exceeding his fundraising during this specific period [^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
President Donald Trump's endorsement of Mike Mazzei was a major bullish catalyst in prediction markets [^] [^] [^] [^] . Mazzei’s odds of winning the nomination reached approximately 73%–80% leading up to the election [^][^][^][^]. This occurred despite some polling suggesting a deadlocked race [^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 25, 2027
- Closes: August 25, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Mike Mazzei secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma governor in the August 25, 2026, primary runoff [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: He received 186,678 votes (50.28%) against Gentner Drummond's 184,631 votes (49.72%) [^] .
- Trigger: Mazzei's margin of victory was 0.56 percentage points, totaling 2,047 votes [^] .
- Trigger: President Donald Trump's endorsement of Mike Mazzei was a major bullish catalyst in prediction markets [^] [^] [^] [^] .
14. Related News
15. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 19 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMND-26-PFLA-P7: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMND-26-PFLA-P62: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMND-26-PFLA-P4: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMND-26-PFLA-P22: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMND-26-PFLA-P19: YES (Aug 19, 2026)
