Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory (Mike Mazzei)
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Mike Mazzei's reported victory margin of 0.54-0.56% significantly underperformed all listed thresholds.
- Gentner Drummond significantly out-fundraised Mazzei in the runoff's final weeks.
- Donald Trump's endorsement was crucial for Mazzei's win, enabling a narrow victory.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Mazzei, ≥6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | Mike Mazzei's runoff margin of victory was definitively reported as 0.54% to 0.56% on August 25, 2026. |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | Mike Mazzei's runoff margin of victory was definitively reported as 0.54% to 0.56% on August 25, 2026. |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | Mike Mazzei's runoff margin of victory was definitively reported as 0.54% to 0.56% on August 25, 2026. |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥15% | 1.0% | 0.1% | Mike Mazzei's runoff margin of victory was definitively reported as 0.54% to 0.56% on August 25, 2026. |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥12% | 1.0% | 0.1% | Mike Mazzei's runoff margin of victory was definitively reported as 0.54% to 0.56% on August 25, 2026. |
Current Context
Sources (7)
- 1GOP governor race down to final hours in Oklahoma's runoff electionoklahoman.com
- 2'Edge of your seats': Trump support propels Mike Mazzei past Gentner Drummondnondoc.com
- 32026 Oklahoma Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 4Trump holds big presence in Oklahoma GOP runoff for governor | AP Newsapnews.com
- 5Trump-backed Mike Mazzei wins the GOP nomination in the Oklahoma governor’s racenbcnews.com
- 6As Voters Back Political Newcomers, Mazzei Secures GOP Nomination for Governor - Oklahoma Watchoklahomawatch.org
- 7Mazzei defeats Drummond by 2K votes in OK governor's runofftulsaworld.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Mike Mazzei, ≥6%
📉 August 26, 2026: 67.0pp drop
Price decreased from 68.0% to 1.0%
Outcome: Mike Mazzei, ≥3%
📈 August 20, 2026: 54.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 54.0%
Sources (4)
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A 'YES' resolution for a specific contract (e.g., "Mike Mazzei, ≥3%") occurs if Mike Mazzei's margin of victory in the Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff is equal to or greater than the percentage stated in the contract; otherwise, it resolves to 'NO'. Settlement for these markets is contingent upon the official certification of the election results. There is a maximum payout date of August 25, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Mazzei, ≥12% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥15% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥3% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥6% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥9% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Mike Mazzei won the Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial primary runoff against Attorney General Gentner Drummond on August 25, 2026 [1][2][3]. Mazzei secured 50.28% of the vote compared to Drummond's 49.72%, resulting in a victory margin of 0.56 percentage points based on 371,309 total votes counted [4].
Sources (4)
- 1Trump-backed Mike Mazzei wins the GOP nomination in the Oklahoma governor’s racenbcnews.com
- 2Mazzei defeats Drummond by 2K votes in OK governor's runofftulsaworld.com
- 3Mike Mazzei wins Republican primary runoff for Oklahoma...ktul.com
- 42026 Oklahoma Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
5. How did the campaign finances and media spending of Mike Mazzei and Gentner Drummond compare in the final weeks before the August 25, 2026 runoff?
| Drummond Cash on Hand | $1,009,347 (as of August 10, 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Mazzei Self-Funding | Over $11 million in personal loans [1][3][4][5] |
| Runoff Winner Vote Share | Mike Mazzei with 50.3% of the vote [6][7][8] |
Sources (9)
- 1Drummond leads fundraising against Mazzei in Oklahoma GOP governor runoffoklahoman.com
- 2Drummond, Mazzei report multimillion-dollar fundraising hauls ahead of GOP runoff - News9.comnews9.com
- 3Gubernatorial campaign finance reports show stark contrasts in loans, donors and spendingokcfox.com
- 4Oklahoma Republicans raise millions ahead of key runoff elections | KOSUkosu.org
- 5State lawmakers enacted 37 bills on ballot measures and direct democracy through mid-2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 6GOP governor race down to final hours in Oklahoma's runoff electionoklahoman.com
- 7Oklahoma Primary Runoff Election Results: GOP gubernatorial race - KOCOkoco.com
- 8Oklahoma governor GOP primary runoff 2026 live resultswashingtonpost.com
- 9Trump holds big presence in Oklahoma GOP runoff for governor | AP Newsapnews.com
6. What was the measurable impact of Donald Trump's endorsement on Mike Mazzei's polling and media coverage relative to Gentner Drummond?
| Endorsement Start | May [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Primary Election Outcome | Secured runoff spot, nearly even with Drummond [4] |
| Campaign Strategy | Leveraged Trump's endorsement to be authentic conservative choice [1][5][6][7][8] |
Sources (8)
- 1Trump holds big presence in Oklahoma GOP runoff for governor | AP Newsapnews.com
- 2Trump renews support for Mazzei, criticizes Drummond in Oklahoma governor runoff - News9.comnews9.com
- 3Trump endorses Mike Mazzei in Okla. GOP runoff, calls opponent a ‘FAKE Republican’ – One America News Networkoann.com
- 4The cost to overcome a Trump endorsement? $100 million...ap.org
- 5As Voters Back Political Newcomers, Mazzei Secures GOP Nomination for Governor - Oklahoma Watchoklahomawatch.org
- 6Mazzei defeats Drummond by 2K votes in OK governor's runofftulsaworld.com
- 7Gentner Drummond (R) and Mike Mazzei (R) campaign on...news.ballotpedia.org
- 8Elections Ballotpedia is covering in August 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
7. What did the final pre-election polls from Oklahoma-based pollsters like SoonerPoll and Amber Integrated indicate for the Mazzei vs. Drummond margin?
| Identified Pre-election Polls | None for Mazzei vs. Drummond runoff [1] |
|---|---|
| SoonerPoll Final Pre-election Data | Not available in research [1] |
| Amber Integrated Runoff Margin | Not detailed in research [2] |
8. What did historical turnout data from the 2018 Oklahoma GOP gubernatorial runoff suggest for the expected 2026 electorate?
| 2018 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff total votes | 302,208 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff total votes | 371,309 [5] |
| 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff margin of victory | 0.56 percentage points [5][6][7][8] |
Sources (8)
- 1Election Summary Res (ea2840)oklahoma.gov
- 22018 Gubernatorial Republican Runoff Election Results - Oklahomauselectionatlas.org
- 32018 Oklahoma Runoff Election Resultspolitico.com
- 4State Election Results, Runoff Primary Election, August 28, 2018web.archive.org
- 52026 Oklahoma Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 6Oklahoma Governor Runoff Election Resultsnytimes.com
- 7Oklahoma Governor Primary Runoff 2026 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
- 8Mike Mazzei speaks to his supporters after winning...facebook.com
9. How did Mazzei's and Drummond's voter outreach strategies differ in key battleground areas like Oklahoma County and Tulsa County?
| Runoff Advertising Spending | Over $14 million [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Runoff Outcome (OKC & Tulsa Co) | Gentner Drummond outperformed Mike Mazzei in both Oklahoma County and Tulsa County (August 25, 2026 runoff) [3] |
| Primary Outcome (OKC & Tulsa Co) | Drummond secured majority in Oklahoma County, Mazzei successful in Tulsa County (June 2026 primary) [4] |
Sources (9)
- 1Tax Hikes, Democrat Donations and Defending Trump: Fact-Checking Claims Made in Runoff Election Ads - Oklahoma Watchoklahomawatch.org
- 2Mazzei, Drummond talk campaign spending, endorsements ahead of Oklahoma runoff | KGOU - Oklahoma's NPR Sourcekgou.org
- 32026 Oklahoma Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 4Drummond, Mazzei seek support in Oklahoma governor runoff - KOCOkoco.com
- 5Trump holds big presence in Oklahoma GOP runoff for governor | AP Newsapnews.com
- 6Trump-backed Mike Mazzei wins the GOP nomination in the Oklahoma governor’s racenbcnews.com
- 7As Voters Back Political Newcomers, Mazzei Secures GOP Nomination for Governor - Oklahoma Watchoklahomawatch.org
- 8How Mazzei and Drummond are appealing to voters in deeply red Oklahomaoklahoman.com
- 9Gentner Drummond (R) and Mike Mazzei (R) campaign on...news.ballotpedia.org
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 25, 2027
- Closes: August 25, 2027
Sources (7)
- 1GOP governor race down to final hours in Oklahoma's runoff electionoklahoman.com
- 2Who won Oklahoma's Governor runoff election? - News9.comnews9.com
- 32026 Oklahoma Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 4Trump holds big presence in Oklahoma GOP runoff for governor | AP Newsapnews.com
- 5Trump-backed Mike Mazzei wins the GOP nomination in...nbcnews.com
- 6August Runoff Primary Election - Oklahoma.govoklahoma.gov
- 7As Voters Back Political Newcomers, Mazzei Secures GOP Nomination for Governor - Oklahoma Watchoklahomawatch.org