Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory? (Mike Mazzei)
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Mike Mazzei's reported victory margin of 0.54-0.56% significantly underperformed all listed thresholds.
- Gentner Drummond significantly out-fundraised Mazzei in the runoff's final weeks.
- Donald Trump's endorsement was crucial for Mazzei's win, enabling a narrow victory.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Mazzei, ≥6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | Mike Mazzei's runoff margin of victory was definitively reported as 0.54% to 0.56% on August 25, 2026. |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | Mike Mazzei's runoff margin of victory was definitively reported as 0.54% to 0.56% on August 25, 2026. |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | Mike Mazzei's runoff margin of victory was definitively reported as 0.54% to 0.56% on August 25, 2026. |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥15% | 1.0% | 0.1% | Mike Mazzei's runoff margin of victory was definitively reported as 0.54% to 0.56% on August 25, 2026. |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥12% | 1.0% | 0.1% | Mike Mazzei's runoff margin of victory was definitively reported as 0.54% to 0.56% on August 25, 2026. |
Current Context
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Mike Mazzei, ≥6%
📉 August 26, 2026: 67.0pp drop
Price decreased from 68.0% to 1.0%
Outcome: Mike Mazzei, ≥3%
📈 August 20, 2026: 54.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 54.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A 'YES' resolution for a specific contract (e.g., "Mike Mazzei, ≥3%") occurs if Mike Mazzei's margin of victory in the Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff is equal to or greater than the percentage stated in the contract; otherwise, it resolves to 'NO'. Settlement for these markets is contingent upon the official certification of the election results. There is a maximum payout date of August 25, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Mazzei, ≥12% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥15% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥3% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥6% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Mazzei, ≥9% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Mike Mazzei won the Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial primary runoff against Attorney General Gentner Drummond on August 25, 2026 [^][^][^]. Mazzei secured 50.28% of the vote compared to Drummond's 49.72%, resulting in a victory margin of 0.56 percentage points based on 371,309 total votes counted [^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Mike Mazzei, ≥6%PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality80Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Mike Mazzei, ≥3%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality85Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Mike Mazzei, ≥9%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality83Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Mike Mazzei, ≥12%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality77Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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Mike Mazzei, ≥15%Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality78Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
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trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 26, 2026
6. How did the campaign finances and media spending of Mike Mazzei and Gentner Drummond compare in the final weeks before the August 25, 2026 runoff?
| Drummond Cash on Hand | $1,009,347 (as of August 10, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Mazzei Self-Funding | Over $11 million in personal loans [^][^][^][^] |
| Runoff Winner Vote Share | Mike Mazzei with 50.3% of the vote [^][^][^] |
7. What was the measurable impact of Donald Trump's endorsement on Mike Mazzei's polling and media coverage relative to Gentner Drummond?
| Endorsement Start | May [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Election Outcome | Secured runoff spot, nearly even with Drummond [^] |
| Campaign Strategy | Leveraged Trump's endorsement to be authentic conservative choice [^][^][^][^][^] |
8. What did the final pre-election polls from Oklahoma-based pollsters like SoonerPoll and Amber Integrated indicate for the Mazzei vs. Drummond margin?
| Identified Pre-election Polls | None for Mazzei vs. Drummond runoff [^] |
|---|---|
| SoonerPoll Final Pre-election Data | Not available in research [^] |
| Amber Integrated Runoff Margin | Not detailed in research [^] |
9. What did historical turnout data from the 2018 Oklahoma GOP gubernatorial runoff suggest for the expected 2026 electorate?
| 2018 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff total votes | 302,208 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff total votes | 371,309 [^] |
| 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff margin of victory | 0.56 percentage points [^][^][^][^] |
10. How did Mazzei's and Drummond's voter outreach strategies differ in key battleground areas like Oklahoma County and Tulsa County?
| Runoff Advertising Spending | Over $14 million [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Runoff Outcome (OKC & Tulsa Co) | Gentner Drummond outperformed Mike Mazzei in both Oklahoma County and Tulsa County (August 25, 2026 runoff) [^] |
| Primary Outcome (OKC & Tulsa Co) | Drummond secured majority in Oklahoma County, Mazzei successful in Tulsa County (June 2026 primary) [^] |
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 25, 2027
- Closes: August 25, 2027
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Mike Mazzei secured the Republican gubernatorial nomination in Oklahoma's primary runoff on August 25, 2026, defeating Gentner Drummond [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Mazzei received 186,678 votes (50.28%) against Drummond's 184,631 votes (49.72%), a margin of 0.56 percentage points from a total of 371,309 votes reported [^] .
- Trigger: President Donald Trump's endorsement significantly influenced Mazzei's win [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Trump frequently posted in Mazzei's favor on Truth Social and characterized Drummond as a 'FAKE Republican' [^] [^] [^] .
14. Related News
15. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.