New Jersey Senate winner? Kalshi
Justin Murphy
Market Model 0.2% 0.2%
Cory Booker
Market Model 98.1% 99.8%
Senate Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (43)
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi
Michele Tafoya
Market Model 11.0% 11.8%
Peggy Flanagan
Market Model 90.1% 88.2%
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi
Josh Turek
Market Model 37.0% 36.6%
Ashley Hinson
Market Model 64.0% 63.4%
Wyoming Senate winner? Kalshi
Harriet Hageman
Market Model 99.8% 98.9%
James Byrd
Market Model 1.9% 1.1%
West Virginia Senate winner? Kalshi
Rachel Fetty Anderson
Market Model 3.4% 2.1%
Shelley Moore Capito
Market Model 96.8% 97.9%
Virginia Senate winner? Kalshi
Mark Warner
Market Model 98.0% 98.2%
Bert Mizusawa
Market Model 2.1% 1.8%
South Dakota Senate winner? Kalshi
Brian Bengs
Market Model 6.0% 4.0%
Mike Rounds
Market Model 95.4% 96.0%
Tennessee Senate winner? Kalshi
Marquita Bradshaw
Market Model 1.7% 1.0%
Bill Hagerty
Market Model 96.0% 99.0%
Rhode Island Senate winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 98.0% 97.3%
Republican party
Market Model 2.7% 2.7%
Oklahoma Senate winner? Kalshi
Kevin Hern
Market Model 94.1% 95.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.8% 5.0%
New Mexico Senate winner? Kalshi
Ben Ray Luján
Market Model 97.1% 98.4%
Larry E. Marker
Market Model 2.7% 1.6%
New Hampshire Senate winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 17.0% 19.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 84.0% 80.8%
Illinois Senate winner? Kalshi
Don Tracy
Market Model 3.1% 3.1%
Juliana Stratton
Market Model 97.1% 96.9%
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi
Adam Hamilton
Market Model 20.0% 17.6%
Roger Marshall
Market Model 80.0% 82.4%
Kentucky Senate winner? Kalshi
Charles Booker
Market Model 5.0% 2.3%
Andy Barr
Market Model 94.1% 97.7%
Massachusetts Senate winner? Kalshi
Ed Markey
Market Model 96.9% 99.0%
John Deaton
Market Model 1.4% 1.0%
Idaho Senate winner? Kalshi
David Roth
Market Model 1.4% 0.8%
Jim Risch
Market Model 96.0% 94.9%
Alabama Senate winner? Kalshi
Everett Wess
Market Model 1.5% 1.1%
Barry Moore
Market Model 97.9% 98.9%
Arkansas Senate winner? Kalshi
Hallie Shoffner
Market Model 7.0% 5.2%
Tom Cotton
Market Model 93.2% 94.8%
Colorado Senate winner? Kalshi
Mark Baisley
Market Model 3.9% 5.1%
John Hickenlooper
Market Model 96.9% 94.9%
Delaware Senate winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Democratic party
Market Model 98.9% 99.4%
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi
Ken Paxton
Market Model 51.0% 48.8%
James Talarico
Market Model 49.0% 51.2%
R-House, R-Senate
Market Model 17.0% 20.4%
D-House, D-Senate
Market Model 48.0% 42.0%
Annie Andrews
Market Model 13.0% 13.1%
Darline Graham
Market Model 86.0% 86.9%
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi
Jon Husted
Market Model 48.0% 45.3%
Sherrod Brown
Market Model 53.0% 54.7%
Roy Cooper
Market Model 91.2% 93.6%
Michael Whatley
Market Model 11.0% 6.4%
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi
Susan Collins
Market Model 33.0% 36.3%
Troy Jackson
Market Model 68.0% 63.7%
Georgia Senate winner? Kalshi
Mike Collins
Market Model 7.8% 5.7%
Jon Ossoff
Market Model 93.3% 94.3%
Florida Senate winner? Kalshi
Angie Nixon
Market Model 8.3% 8.4%
Ashley Moody
Market Model 90.8% 91.6%
Oregon Senate winner? Kalshi
Jeff Merkley
Market Model 98.9% 98.1%
David Brock Smith
Market Model 2.5% 1.9%
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi
Dan Osborn
Market Model 27.0% 27.7%
Pete Ricketts
Market Model 73.0% 72.2%
Montana Senate winner? Kalshi
Seth Bodnar
Market Model 6.7% 6.7%
Kurt Alme
Market Model 91.9% 92.2%
Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi
Scott Colom
Market Model 6.7% 5.7%
Cindy Hyde-Smith
Market Model 94.5% 94.3%
Louisiana Senate winner? Kalshi
Jamie Davis
Market Model 8.5% 8.3%
Julia Letlow
Market Model 93.9% 91.7%
Above 52
Market Model 22.0% 15.9%
Below 45
Market Model 7.1% 7.7%
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi
Mike Rogers
Market Model 42.0% 37.8%
Abdul El-Sayed
Market Model 59.0% 62.2%
Yes
Market Model 29.0% 21.5%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 46.0% 41.6%
Republican Party
Market Model 55.0% 58.4%
Republican party
Market Model 7.0% 3.1%
Democratic party
Market Model 95.9% 96.9%
Republican party
Market Model 26.0% 26.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 80.0% 73.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 6.7% 5.4%
Republican party
Market Model 97.9% 94.6%
Ohio Senate winner? (2028) Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 33.0% 27.3%
Republican party
Market Model 60.0% 72.7%
Democratic party
Market Model 58.0% 66.1%
Republican party
Market Model 41.0% 33.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Senate winner? Top outcome: Justin Murphy | 0.2% | 0.2% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Minnesota Senate winner? Top outcome: Michele Tafoya | 11.0% | 11.8% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Iowa Senate winner? Top outcome: Josh Turek | 37.0% | 36.6% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Wyoming Senate winner? Top outcome: Harriet Hageman | 99.8% | 98.9% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| West Virginia Senate winner? Top outcome: Rachel Fetty Anderson | 3.4% | 2.1% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Virginia Senate winner? Top outcome: Mark Warner | 98.0% | 98.2% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| South Dakota Senate winner? Top outcome: Brian Bengs | 6.0% | 4.0% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| Tennessee Senate winner? Top outcome: Marquita Bradshaw | 1.7% | 1.0% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Rhode Island Senate winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 98.0% | 97.3% | Med | 79 | Refresh |
| Oklahoma Senate winner? Top outcome: Kevin Hern | 94.1% | 95.0% | Med | 82 | Refresh |
| New Mexico Senate winner? Top outcome: Ben Ray Luján | 97.1% | 98.4% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| New Hampshire Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 17.0% | 19.2% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Illinois Senate winner? Top outcome: Don Tracy | 3.1% | 3.1% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Kansas Senate winner? Top outcome: Adam Hamilton | 20.0% | 17.6% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Kentucky Senate winner? Top outcome: Charles Booker | 5.0% | 2.3% | Med | 81 | Refresh |
| Massachusetts Senate winner? Top outcome: Ed Markey | 96.9% | 99.0% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Idaho Senate winner? Top outcome: David Roth | 1.4% | 0.8% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Alabama Senate winner? Top outcome: Everett Wess | 1.5% | 1.1% | Med | 81 | Refresh |
| Arkansas Senate winner? Top outcome: Hallie Shoffner | 7.0% | 5.2% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Colorado Senate winner? Top outcome: Mark Baisley | 3.9% | 5.1% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Delaware Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 1.0% | 0.6% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| Texas Senate winner? Top outcome: Ken Paxton | 51.0% | 48.8% | High | 84 | Refresh |
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Top outcome: R-House, R-Senate | 17.0% | 20.4% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| South Carolina Senate winner? Top outcome: Annie Andrews | 13.0% | 13.1% | Med | 83 | Refresh |
| Ohio Senate winner? Top outcome: Jon Husted | 48.0% | 45.3% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| North Carolina Senate winner? Top outcome: Roy Cooper | 91.2% | 93.6% | Med | 81 | Refresh |
| Maine Senate winner? Top outcome: Susan Collins | 33.0% | 36.3% | High | 84 | Refresh |
| Georgia Senate winner? Top outcome: Mike Collins | 7.8% | 5.7% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Florida Senate winner? Top outcome: Angie Nixon | 8.3% | 8.4% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Oregon Senate winner? Top outcome: Jeff Merkley | 98.9% | 98.1% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Nebraska Senate winner? Top outcome: Dan Osborn | 27.0% | 27.7% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Montana Senate winner? Top outcome: Seth Bodnar | 6.7% | 6.7% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Mississippi Senate winner? Top outcome: Scott Colom | 6.7% | 5.7% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Louisiana Senate winner? Top outcome: Jamie Davis | 8.5% | 8.3% | Med | 77 | Refresh |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Above 52 | 22.0% | 15.9% | High | 88 | Refresh |
| Michigan Senate winner? Top outcome: Mike Rogers | 42.0% | 37.8% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Yes refers to: Yes | 29.0% | 21.5% | Med | 37 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 46.0% | 41.6% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Vermont Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Republican party | 7.0% | 3.1% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Republican party | 26.0% | 26.2% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| Alabama Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 6.7% | 5.4% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Ohio Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 33.0% | 27.3% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate winner? (Party) Top outcome: Democratic party | 58.0% | 66.1% | High | 80 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (2)
Dan J. Sullivan
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Dan S. Sullivan
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Senate: who will advance? Top outcome: Dan J. Sullivan | 99.0% | 100.0% | Med | — | |
| — | — | Low | — |
