Yes
Market Model 16.0% 30.6%
Senate Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (55)
Talarico by 10-15
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
Talarico by 5-10
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
2
Market Model 4.0% 11.6%
1
Market Model 17.0% 0.0%
Before Nov 14
Market Model 72.0% 66.3%
Before Nov 11
Market Model 70.0% 61.3%
Yes
Market Model 99.0% 99.4%
Montana US Senate
Market Model 95.0% 99.0%
New Jersey US Senate
Market Model 9.0% 1.0%
Bottoms by 0+
Market Model 6.0% 3.0%
Ossoff by 15-18
Market Model 8.0% 4.0%
Louisiana Senate winner? Kalshi
Jamie Davis
Market Model 9.0% 10.4%
Julia Letlow
Market Model 90.9% 89.6%
Maine Senate Exact Outcome Kalshi
Democratic party wins
Market Model 62.0% 64.7%
Republican party wins
Market Model 37.0% 35.3%
Yes
Market Model 64.0% 64.0%
Republicans sweep
Market Model 8.2% 5.6%
R-House, D-Senate
Market Model 0.8% 0.7%
Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi
Kansas
Market Model 15.0% 15.2%
Texas
Market Model 9.5% 9.4%
54
Market Model 12.0% 10.6%
Below 53
Market Model 59.0% 56.6%
Above 52
Market Model 46.0% 38.1%
52
Market Model 19.0% 18.0%
Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 26.0% 29.6%
Democratic party
Market Model 74.0% 70.4%
Wyoming Senate winner? Kalshi
Harriet Hageman
Market Model 98.8% 99.4%
James Byrd
Market Model 1.3% 0.6%
West Virginia Senate winner? Kalshi
Rachel Fetty Anderson
Market Model 2.7% 2.7%
Shelley Moore Capito
Market Model 98.1% 97.3%
Tennessee Senate winner? Kalshi
Bill Hagerty
Market Model 96.3% 97.6%
Marquita Bradshaw
Market Model 3.8% 2.4%
Virginia Senate winner? Kalshi
Mark Warner
Market Model 97.6% 98.3%
Bert Mizusawa
Market Model 2.3% 1.7%
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi
Ken Paxton
Market Model 33.0% 32.7%
James Talarico
Market Model 68.0% 67.3%
South Dakota Senate winner? Kalshi
Brian Bengs
Market Model 6.0% 6.0%
Mike Rounds
Market Model 93.9% 93.8%
Annie Andrews
Market Model 19.0% 24.2%
Darline Graham
Market Model 82.0% 75.8%
Rhode Island Senate winner? Kalshi
Jack Reed
Market Model 98.9% 98.9%
Raymond McKay
Market Model 1.9% 1.1%
Oregon Senate winner? Kalshi
David Brock Smith
Market Model 1.6% 1.6%
Jeff Merkley
Market Model 98.8% 98.4%
Oklahoma Senate winner? Kalshi
N’Kiyla Thomas
Market Model 3.3% 2.8%
Kevin Hern
Market Model 97.6% 97.2%
Michael Whatley
Market Model 4.3% 3.1%
Roy Cooper
Market Model 96.2% 96.9%
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi
Sherrod Brown
Market Model 71.0% 63.2%
Jon Husted
Market Model 30.0% 36.8%
New Mexico Senate winner? Kalshi
Larry E. Marker
Market Model 4.0% 2.3%
Ben Ray Luján
Market Model 97.7% 97.7%
New Jersey Senate winner? Kalshi
Justin Murphy
Market Model 4.0% 4.0%
Cory Booker
Market Model 97.1% 96.0%
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi
Michele Tafoya
Market Model 15.0% 14.9%
Peggy Flanagan
Market Model 86.0% 85.1%
New Hampshire Senate winner? Kalshi
John E. Sununu
Market Model 12.0% 11.0%
Chris Pappas
Market Model 89.0% 89.0%
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi
Pete Ricketts
Market Model 73.0% 77.0%
Dan Osborn
Market Model 27.0% 22.9%
Montana Senate winner? Kalshi
Seth Bodnar
Market Model 7.8% 6.8%
Kurt Alme
Market Model 91.5% 93.0%
Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi
Scott Colom
Market Model 10.0% 10.9%
Cindy Hyde-Smith
Market Model 89.0% 89.1%
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi
Adam Hamilton
Market Model 39.0% 42.5%
Roger Marshall
Market Model 62.0% 57.5%
Kentucky Senate winner? Kalshi
Charles Booker
Market Model 3.6% 2.6%
Andy Barr
Market Model 96.9% 97.4%
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi
Susan Collins
Market Model 36.0% 39.4%
Troy Jackson
Market Model 65.0% 60.6%
Massachusetts Senate winner? Kalshi
John Deaton
Market Model 1.9% 1.9%
Ed Markey
Market Model 98.3% 98.1%
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi
Josh Turek
Market Model 42.0% 45.5%
Ashley Hinson
Market Model 59.0% 54.5%
Illinois Senate winner? Kalshi
Juliana Stratton
Market Model 99.0% 97.7%
Don Tracy
Market Model 2.3% 2.3%
Idaho Senate winner? Kalshi
Jim Risch
Market Model 84.0% 87.6%
Todd Achilles
Market Model 11.0% 12.0%
Georgia Senate winner? Kalshi
Mike Collins
Market Model 5.7% 3.3%
Jon Ossoff
Market Model 95.6% 96.7%
Florida Senate winner? Kalshi
Angie Nixon
Market Model 12.0% 10.3%
Ashley Moody
Market Model 89.0% 89.7%
Arkansas Senate winner? Kalshi
Hallie Shoffner
Market Model 5.8% 4.9%
Tom Cotton
Market Model 94.3% 95.1%
Delaware Senate winner? Kalshi
Michael Katz
Market Model 1.8% 0.8%
Chris Coons
Market Model 99.6% 99.2%
Colorado Senate winner? Kalshi
Mark Baisley
Market Model 1.2% 1.0%
John Hickenlooper
Market Model 99.4% 99.0%
Alabama Senate winner? Kalshi
Everett Wess
Market Model 1.8% 0.8%
Barry Moore
Market Model 99.1% 99.2%
Dan J. Sullivan
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Dan S. Sullivan
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi
Mike Rogers
Market Model 42.0% 37.8%
Abdul El-Sayed
Market Model 59.0% 62.2%
Yes
Market Model 29.0% 21.5%
Republican party
Market Model 7.0% 3.1%
Democratic party
Market Model 95.9% 96.9%
Republican party
Market Model 26.0% 26.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 80.0% 73.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 6.7% 5.4%
Republican party
Market Model 97.9% 94.6%
Ohio Senate winner? (2028) Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 33.0% 27.3%
Republican party
Market Model 60.0% 72.7%
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? Yes refers to: Yes | 16.0% | 30.6% | Med | 86 | Refresh |
| Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin? Top outcome: Talarico by 10-15 | 1.0% | 0.0% | High | 87 | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate election: number of rounds Top outcome: 2 | 4.0% | 11.6% | High | 87 | Refresh |
| When will AP call the Mississippi Senate election? Top outcome: Before Nov 14 | 72.0% | 66.3% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? Yes refers to: Yes | 99.0% | 99.4% | Med | 79 | Refresh |
| Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey? Top outcome: Montana US Senate | 95.0% | 99.0% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Georgia: Bottoms's margin vs. Ossoff's margin? Top outcome: Bottoms by 0+ | 6.0% | 3.0% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Louisiana Senate winner? Top outcome: Jamie Davis | 9.0% | 10.4% | High | — | Refresh |
| Maine Senate Exact Outcome Top outcome: Democratic party wins | 62.0% | 64.7% | High | — | Refresh |
| Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? Yes refers to: Yes | 64.0% | 64.0% | Med | — | Refresh |
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Top outcome: Republicans sweep | 8.2% | 5.6% | High | — | Refresh |
| Closest Senate race in 2026? Top outcome: Kansas | 15.0% | 15.2% | High | 87 | Refresh |
| 12.0% | 10.6% | High | 69 | Refresh | |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Above 52 | 46.0% | 38.1% | Med | 85 | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 26.0% | 29.6% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Wyoming Senate winner? Top outcome: Harriet Hageman | 98.8% | 99.4% | High | — | Refresh |
| West Virginia Senate winner? Top outcome: Rachel Fetty Anderson | 2.7% | 2.7% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Tennessee Senate winner? Top outcome: Bill Hagerty | 96.3% | 97.6% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Virginia Senate winner? Top outcome: Mark Warner | 97.6% | 98.3% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Texas Senate winner? Top outcome: Ken Paxton | 33.0% | 32.7% | High | — | Refresh |
| South Dakota Senate winner? Top outcome: Brian Bengs | 6.0% | 6.0% | Med | — | Refresh |
| South Carolina Senate winner? Top outcome: Annie Andrews | 19.0% | 24.2% | High | — | Refresh |
| Rhode Island Senate winner? Top outcome: Jack Reed | 98.9% | 98.9% | High | — | Refresh |
| Oregon Senate winner? Top outcome: David Brock Smith | 1.6% | 1.6% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Oklahoma Senate winner? Top outcome: N’Kiyla Thomas | 3.3% | 2.8% | High | — | Refresh |
| North Carolina Senate winner? Top outcome: Michael Whatley | 4.3% | 3.1% | High | — | Refresh |
| Ohio Senate winner? Top outcome: Sherrod Brown | 71.0% | 63.2% | High | — | Refresh |
| New Mexico Senate winner? Top outcome: Larry E. Marker | 4.0% | 2.3% | High | — | Refresh |
| New Jersey Senate winner? Top outcome: Justin Murphy | 4.0% | 4.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| Minnesota Senate winner? Top outcome: Michele Tafoya | 15.0% | 14.9% | High | — | Refresh |
| New Hampshire Senate winner? Top outcome: John E. Sununu | 12.0% | 11.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| Nebraska Senate winner? Top outcome: Pete Ricketts | 73.0% | 77.0% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Montana Senate winner? Top outcome: Seth Bodnar | 7.8% | 6.8% | High | — | Refresh |
| Mississippi Senate winner? Top outcome: Scott Colom | 10.0% | 10.9% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Kansas Senate winner? Top outcome: Adam Hamilton | 39.0% | 42.5% | High | — | Refresh |
| Kentucky Senate winner? Top outcome: Charles Booker | 3.6% | 2.6% | High | — | Refresh |
| Maine Senate winner? Top outcome: Susan Collins | 36.0% | 39.4% | High | — | Refresh |
| Massachusetts Senate winner? Top outcome: John Deaton | 1.9% | 1.9% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Iowa Senate winner? Top outcome: Josh Turek | 42.0% | 45.5% | High | — | Refresh |
| Illinois Senate winner? Top outcome: Juliana Stratton | 99.0% | 97.7% | High | — | Refresh |
| Idaho Senate winner? Top outcome: Jim Risch | 84.0% | 87.6% | High | — | Refresh |
| Georgia Senate winner? Top outcome: Mike Collins | 5.7% | 3.3% | High | — | Refresh |
| Florida Senate winner? Top outcome: Angie Nixon | 12.0% | 10.3% | High | — | Refresh |
| Arkansas Senate winner? Top outcome: Hallie Shoffner | 5.8% | 4.9% | High | — | Refresh |
| Delaware Senate winner? Top outcome: Michael Katz | 1.8% | 0.8% | High | — | Refresh |
| Colorado Senate winner? Top outcome: Mark Baisley | 1.2% | 1.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| Alabama Senate winner? Top outcome: Everett Wess | 1.8% | 0.8% | High | — | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate: who will advance? Top outcome: Dan J. Sullivan | 99.0% | 100.0% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Michigan Senate winner? Top outcome: Mike Rogers | 42.0% | 37.8% | High | — | Refresh |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Yes refers to: Yes | 29.0% | 21.5% | Med | 38 | Refresh |
| Vermont Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Republican party | 7.0% | 3.1% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Republican party | 26.0% | 26.2% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Alabama Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 6.7% | 5.4% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| Ohio Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 33.0% | 27.3% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| — | — | Low | — | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | 79 |
