Short Answer

Barry Moore is expected to win the 2026 Alabama U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep partisan lean and consistent classification of the contest as "Solid Republican" by forecasters; the market prices this at 97.9%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The selection of U.S. Representative Barry Moore as the Republican nominee for the 2026 Alabama Senate race corresponds with the market's primary move. This event resolved the GOP primary contest, solidifying the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Everett Wess. The contract price, which appears to track the probability of a Democratic victory, subsequently fell from a high of 5.3% to 1.5%.
The market is characterized by extremely low liquidity, with total volume at just 362 contracts. This suggests the price levels may not reflect broad conviction. The current 1.5% price indicates the market assigns a very low probability to a Democratic win in Alabama, an assessment that has remained stable since the post-primary repricing.
  • Since last update (~28d): The market for Everett Wess now exceeds the model by 0.4pp, as the model declined more.
  • Barry Moore's model probability increased 0.9pp, with his market probability rising 0.4pp.
  • Barry Moore's positive edge widened by 0.5pp, signaling stronger model conviction.
  • Republican Barry Moore is favored; Alabama exhibits a deep partisan lean. Moore maintains a significant fundraising advantage over Democratic opponent Everett Wess.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Everett Wess 1.5% 1.1% A Democratic win is highly improbable given Alabama's strong Republican advantage and Wess's fundraising deficit.
Barry Moore 97.9% 98.9% Barry Moore benefits from Alabama's deep partisan lean and a significant fundraising advantage.

Current Context

The 2026 Alabama U.S. Senate general election is set for November 3, 2026 [1][2][3]. U.S. Representative Barry Moore is the Republican nominee, and attorney Everett Wess is the Democratic nominee [4][5][1][6][2][7]. Incumbent Senator Tommy Tuberville will not seek re-election; he is running for Governor of Alabama in 2026 [4][5][1].
Forecasters currently classify the race as Solid Republican, favoring Moore. As of September 2026, election forecasters and prediction markets generally indicate an overwhelming lead for Barry Moore, with win probabilities between 95% and 97% [8][9][10]. However, as of September 9, 2026, the general election has not yet taken place, and therefore no winner has been determined for the 2026 Alabama U.S. Senate election [2].
Sources (10)
  1. 12026 United States Senate election in Alabama - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 22026 Alabama US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 3An early look at Alabama's U.S. Senate election in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4US Rep. Barry Moore wins Republican primary runoff for US Senate in Alabama | AP Newsapnews.com
  5. 5Moore, Wess, Robertson, Wahl, and Sneed win in Alabama runoff | Alabama Public Radioapr.org
  6. 6United States Senate election in Alabama, 2026 (June 16 Democratic primary runoff) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7United States Senate election in Alabama, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 82026 Alabama US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9Alabama — U.S. Senate — 2026 forecast — Akashicakashic.app
  10. 102026 Alabama Senate Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "Alabama Senate winner?" market, a YES resolution for a candidate's contract is triggered if their respective party wins the Alabama Senate election, while a NO resolution occurs if their party does not win. The market specifically resolves based on the winning party. The election event is scheduled to begin on November 3, 8:00 AM EST, with the maximum payout date set for November 3, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Barry Moore $0.98 $0.04 98%
Everett Wess $0.04 $0.98 2%

Market Discussion

The 2026 Alabama U.S. Senate election features Republican nominee Barry Moore and Democratic nominee Everett Wess, following primary runoffs held on June 16, 2026 [1][2][3]. Incumbent Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville announced he is not seeking re-election to the Senate in 2026, opting instead to run for Governor of Alabama [1][3][4]. As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets and forecasting models, including Polymarket and Decision Desk HQ, overwhelmingly favor a Republican victory in the election scheduled for November 3, 2026, with win probabilities for the Republican candidate consistently estimated between 95% and 96% [3][5][6][7][8][9].

Sources (9)
  1. 1US Rep. Barry Moore wins Republican primary runoff for US Senate in Alabama | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 2List of United States Senators from Alabama - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Alabama — U.S. Senate — 2026 forecast — Akashicakashic.app
  4. 4United States Senate elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Alabama Senate Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  6. 62026 Alabama US Senate Marketsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7United States Senate election in Alabama, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 82026 Alabama US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 92026 Alabama US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 78 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score58Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score78Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
58Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

2 contracts · worst first

Barry Moore58
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 1% vs realized 0%
Everett Wess60
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

Barry Moore—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Everett Wess—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Barry Moore100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Everett Wess100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
58Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 58 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 1.1c slippage (~1% of a 97c contract)

$1,000 order: 1.5c slippage (~2% of a 97c contract)

$10,000 order: 1.5c slippage (~2% of a 97c contract)

Barry Moore58Market scoreLiquidity58Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 58
Liquidity
58 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 1% vs realized 0%
Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Everett Wess60Market scoreLiquidity60Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 60
Liquidity
60 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 26, 2026

5. What historical voting patterns and polling data support the consensus forecast of a 'Solid Republican' outcome for Barry Moore in the 2026 Alabama Senate race?

Trump 2024 Alabama Win Margin30.5 percentage points (Donald Trump) [1][2]
Barry Moore Implied Win Probability97-98% [3][4][2]
Forecast Model Fundamentals Contribution73% [5]
Alabama's deep Republican leanings strongly favor Barry Moore in 2026. The 2026 Alabama Senate race is widely forecast as a 'Solid Republican' outcome for Barry Moore, largely due to the state's significant structural partisan advantage for the Republican Party. This is notably evidenced by Donald Trump's 30.5 percentage point victory in Alabama in 2024 [1][2]. Republicans have consistently held both U.S. Senate seats in the state since 2021, reinforcing the historical voting patterns that favor the GOP [6]. The 2026 election will be an open-seat contest, with Barry Moore having secured the Republican nomination after winning a runoff election on June 16, 2026, with 55.8% of the vote [1][7][6][7].
Consensus forecasts show a near-certain win for Moore based on strong fundamentals. Prediction markets and various election forecasts consistently assign Barry Moore an implied probability of winning between 97% and 98% [3][4][2]. For example, Decision Desk HQ projects a 'Safe Republican' outcome, indicating a 96% win probability for Moore and a projected margin of R+17 [5][8]. This strong consensus is largely driven by forecast models that attribute 73% to fundamental factors, including partisan baseline, incumbency, the presidential party cycle, and campaign finances, with only 2% stemming from polls and 25% from prediction markets [5]. Further supporting this outlook, as of July 2026, Moore's campaign reported raising approximately $5.79 million, which is significantly augmented by over $16.4 million in outside support, substantially outpacing his Democratic opponent Everett Wess, who reported raising approximately $83,341 [5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Alabama U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  2. 22026 Alabama Senate Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
  3. 3Alabama Senate winner? Odds - Republican 97¢, Democrat 3¢ (Live)predictionhunt.com
  4. 42026 Alabama Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  5. 52026 Alabama US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6An early look at Alabama's U.S. Senate election in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  7. 72026 United States Senate election in Alabama - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  8. 82026 U.S. Senate Forecast | Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

6. How do Barry Moore's and Everett Wess's platforms on key issues like the economy, healthcare, and energy compare against Alabama voter priorities?

Forecast RatingSolid or Safe Republican (Independent race forecasters) [1]
Prediction Market Odds for MooreOften exceeding 95-97% (Kalshi and PredictIt, as of September 2026) [2][3]
Barry Moore's Platform FocusConservative values; states he is not a "RINO" or "MAGA pretender" [4][1]
Republican Barry Moore and Democratic nominee Everett Wess present contrasting platforms for Alabama's 2026 U.S. Senate election. Moore's platform emphasizes conservative values, and he has explicitly stated he is not a "RINO" or a "MAGA pretender" [4][1]. In contrast, Wess centers his platform on economic relief for Alabamians, focusing on issues such as rent, mortgage, gas, grocery, utility, and medical costs, while also advocating for broadband expansion [5]. Wess, a lawyer and criminal justice advocate, has criticized Moore's loyalty to Donald Trump, suggesting it comes at the expense of constituent needs [5]. However, Ballotpedia's 2026 Candidate Connection survey does not yet show completion by Wess, which limits public documentation of his specific platform details on key issues such as the economy, healthcare, or energy [4].
Direct platform comparison against voter priorities is currently limited by available research. The provided research does not include detailed information on specific Alabama voter priorities regarding the economy, healthcare, or energy, making it impossible to directly compare the candidates' platforms against voter priorities based solely on this data. Despite the absence of specific voter priority data, independent race forecasters have consistently rated the 2026 Alabama Senate general election as Solid or Safe Republican, indicating a significant Republican advantage in the state [1]. Prediction markets, including Kalshi and PredictIt, further support this view by overwhelmingly favoring Republican Barry Moore, with implied probabilities of victory often exceeding 95-97% as of September 2026 [2][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Rep. Barry Moore becomes the ninth representative to announce a U.S. Senate bid for 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 Alabama Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  3. 3Alabama Senate winner? Odds - Republican 97¢, Democrat 3¢ (Live)predictionhunt.com
  4. 4Everett Wess - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5U.S. Senate Seat Spotlight: Everett Wess, Democratic Nominee | Newswvua23.com

7. How might the national political environment in Fall 2026, particularly the incumbent President's approval rating, impact voter turnout models for Moore and Wess?

Trump Approval Rating (early Sep 2026)41% [1][2]
Trump Job Approval Rating (Sep 2026 lows)As low as 33% [3][4][5]
Barry Moore implied win probabilities96% to 98% [6][7][8][9]
President Trump's approval rating is low, challenging Republican midterm prospects. As of early September 2026, President Donald Trump's national approval rating stands at 41% [1][2]. His job approval rating is near historic lows, hovering just under 40%, with some polls reporting as low as 33% [3][4][5]. This low rating is primarily attributed to public frustration over high inflation and an unresolved conflict in Iran [3][4][5]. These factors create a challenging environment for Republican candidates in the 2026 midterms, raising concerns that the Republican base might lack motivation to turn out for their candidates [3][4]. National political analysts often associate low presidential approval ratings with potential voter turnout impacts in midterm elections [10].
Alabama's Senate race favors Moore despite Republican turnout concerns. While the 2026 Alabama Senate contest, featuring Republican Barry Moore and Democrat Everett Wess, is currently forecasted as Safe Republican [11][10], Barry Moore is a heavy favorite in prediction markets with implied win probabilities typically ranging between 96% and 98% [6][7][8][9]. The low presidential approval rating primarily highlights concerns about turnout motivation for the Republican base and for Barry Moore specifically [3][4]. The provided facts do not specify how President Trump's approval rating would directly impact voter turnout models for Democrat Everett Wess.
Sources (11)
  1. 1Trump ends August with 41% approval rating, congressional approval at 16% - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  2. 2Ballotpedia's Polling Indexes - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Trump's approval slump and candidate quality drive 2026 Senate...brookings.edu
  4. 4Trump's approval ratings endure a cruel summer - The Hillthehill.com
  5. 5Trump's Polling Numbers Hit a New Low. Don't Expect Him to...nytimes.com
  6. 62026 Alabama Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  7. 7Alabama Senate winner? Odds - Republican 97¢, Democrat 3¢ (Live)predictionhunt.com
  8. 82026 Senate Races: All 35 Seats, Market by Marketpredictionmarketspicks.com
  9. 92026 Midterms Prediction Markets — Senate, House & Balance of Powerpredictionmarketspicks.com
  10. 10Democratic primary turnout has soared in some states. Can it carry...ap.org
  11. 112026 Alabama US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

8. What do the quarterly FEC filings for Barry Moore and Everett Wess indicate about their fundraising momentum and donor bases leading into the general election?

Barry Moore Total Raised$5,787,768 (as of July 2026) [1]
Everett Wess Total Raised$83,341 (as of July 2026) [1]
Barry Moore Cash on Handover $637,000 [2]
Barry Moore significantly outraised Everett Wess, demonstrating strong financial momentum. As of July 2026, Republican candidate Barry Moore had raised a total of $5,787,768 and spent $5,161,818 [1]. His campaign was further bolstered by substantial outside support totaling $16,416,708 [1]. Moore's recent quarterly fundraising amounted to approximately $785,979, leaving his campaign with over $637,000 in cash on hand [2]. In stark contrast, Democratic candidate Everett Wess had raised $83,341 and spent $94,747 by July 2026, resulting in a negative cash-on-hand balance of -$1,395 [2][1].
Moore benefits from a diverse financial base, unlike Wess's individual donor focus. Everett Wess's fundraising was exclusively derived from individual contributions, indicating an absence of major PAC or organizational support [2]. Conversely, Barry Moore has effectively utilized established party infrastructure and considerable outside backing, including contributions from groups such as the Club for Growth PAC. This suggests Moore's campaign draws from a broader and more varied financial base beyond just individual donors [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 12026 Alabama US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 2Alabama Senate Fundraising - Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com

9. What potential 'black swan' events or campaign missteps before November 2026 could realistically challenge Barry Moore's commanding lead over Everett Wess?

Moore's implied probability96-98% (as of September 9, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5]
State partisanshipSolid Republican state [1]
General election dateNovember 3, 2026 [1][6]
Barry Moore holds a commanding lead in the Alabama U.S. Senate race. Current prediction markets heavily favor Moore over Everett Wess, indicating an approximate 96-98% implied probability of victory as of September 9, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. Given Alabama's status as a solidly Republican state, any realistic challenge to Moore's dominant position before the November 2026 election would likely require an event of unprecedented scale [1].
Moore's lead could be challenged by major personal or political scandals. Such events typically include major, verified personal or political scandals involving the candidate, or significant unforeseen personal or financial issues [1][6]. Additionally, severe health issues experienced by the candidate could also pose a significant threat to his campaign and dominant position [6].
Broader challenges could arise from catastrophic national or state-level crises. These crises might fundamentally shift the electorate's partisan baseline [1][6]. Other significant threats to Moore's position include a catastrophic collapse in Republican turnout that deviates significantly from historical trends, or major revelations surfacing in the final months leading up to the November 3, 2026, general election [1][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 12026 Alabama Senate Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
  2. 2Barry Moore wins Alabama GOP, Everett Wess wins Democratic...alabamareflector.com
  3. 32026 United States Senate election in Alabama - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  4. 42026 Midterms Prediction Markets — Senate, House & Balance of Powerpredictionmarketspicks.com
  5. 5Alabama Senate winner? Odds - Republican 97¢, Democrat 3¢ (Live)predictionhunt.com
  6. 62026 Alabama US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 Alabama U.S. Senate race is an open seat contest following Senator Tommy Tuberville's decision to run for governor [1][2]. Republican Representative Barry Moore is favored to win the general election against Democratic nominee Everett Wess [3][4]. Forecast models give Moore a 96-97% probability of victory, rating the seat as Solid Republican [1][5][6][7][8]. Major election analysts rated the general election as either Solid Republican or Safe Republican as of May 2026 [2].
National prediction markets price control of the U.S. Senate as a near coin-flip, with Republicans holding a slight edge (roughly 52% probability of retention) as of September 2026 [9][10][11]. The 2026 general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [12][3][4]. Market catalysts for overall Senate control include the competitive map of toss-up seats, unexpected polling shifts, incumbent retirements, and national indicators like the generic congressional ballot [9][10][11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (12)
  1. 12026 Alabama US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 2Barry Moore and Jared Hudson advanced from the May 19 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Alabama to the June 16 primary runoff - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  3. 3United States Senate election in Alabama, 2026 (June 16 Democratic primary runoff) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 42026 Alabama US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5AL Senate 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  6. 6Alabama — U.S. Senate — 2026 forecast — Akashicakashic.app
  7. 7Alabama U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  8. 82026 Alabama Senate Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
  9. 9Senate 2026 Odds: Live Prediction Market Tracker for Chamber Control – Bellwetherbellwether.market
  10. 10Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  11. 112026 US Senate Control Odds & Analysis | Prediction Geniuspredictiongenius.io
  12. 122026 Election Calendar: Primary and General Election Datesapnews.com