Alaska Senate
Short Answer
Mary Peltola is considered likely to win the 2026 Alaska Senate race, with the market pricing this outcome at 69.0%, diverging from the model's 56.5% probability.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market for Dan Sullivan's re-election chances has trended upward, moving from 26% to 32% in late October. This price appreciation occurred despite news that appeared to favor his opponent, Mary Peltola. A New York Times poll reported around October 29 showed Peltola leading, and other prediction markets priced her with probabilities between 64% and 69%. The upward move in Sullivan's price is therefore not a direct reaction to these headlines.
Instead, the move to 32% appears to be a convergence toward the valuations seen in other venues and forecasts. The current price is consistent with the ~31% implied probability for a Republican win on Kalshi and is near the 37% price for Sullivan on Polymarket. It also aligns with at least one aggregator, Scrutinel, whose blended forecast shows an even race with a slight Republican lean. The increased volume on the final move to 32% suggests trader conviction that Sullivan's probability was previously undervalued relative to the broader market consensus.
- Since last update (~184d): Mary Peltola's market probability surged +10.0pp; model decreased -3.1pp, flipping the edge (market_led).
- Dan Sullivan's market dropped -12.0pp while model rose +3.3pp, flipping the edge (market_led).
- Confidence score rose +2.0pp; Daniel J. Sullivan and Gerald Heikes were added as outcomes.
- Mary Peltola leads in polling, holding consistent ranked-choice voting leads.
- Dan Sullivan benefits from incumbency, cash-on-hand, and a Trump endorsement.
- Daniel J. Sullivan's reported support likely transfers to Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan | 33.0% | 41.1% | As the incumbent, Dan Sullivan benefits from a cash-on-hand advantage and a Trump endorsement. |
| Mary Peltola | 69.0% | 56.5% | Mary Peltola holds consistent polling leads in final-round ranked-choice voting scenarios. |
| Daniel J. Sullivan | 1.0% | 1.1% | Rasmussen reports 3-5% first-round support, and he qualified to run after a court ruling. |
| Ann Diener | 0.1% | 0.1% | No significant polling or news suggests a realistic path to winning. |
| Richard Grayson | 0.1% | 0.1% | No significant polling or news suggests a realistic path to winning. |
Current Context
Mary Peltola currently leads person-level forecasts for Alaska's U.S. Senate race. As of Friday, October 30, 2026, Kalshi prices the Democratic-party outcome at approximately 69% [1]. Polymarket prices Mary Peltola at 64% and incumbent Dan Sullivan at 37% [2]. Election Day is November 3, 2026. The polling picture is competitive, but generally slightly favors Peltola, with recent New York Times polling listing her ahead in both first choice and final-round scenarios [3]. Other aggregators show Peltola ahead by +0.7 to +3.4 percentage points, while Scrutinel's blended forecast is essentially even with a slight Republican lean [4].
A legal and political controversy surrounding a same-name candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan, represents a major recent development. The Trump Justice Department sued to block certification of a narrow Peltola victory if this candidate remains on the ballot [3]. Alaska's Supreme Court ruled the same-name candidate qualified; Peltola and the DSCC deny reports of recruiting him as a spoiler [3]. Prediction market movement previously favored Peltola, but softened after an October 28 New York Times spoiler report [3]. One market account reported Peltola falling from roughly 75% to 70% by October 29, after Kalshi had earlier shown about 75% [3]. Market prices are probabilistic estimates, not election results [3]. David Bensoussan, a market participant profiled by The New York Times, wagered $113,000 on Peltola, typically placing larger bets when odds are at least 75%, providing an individual market opinion [5].
Decisive uncertainty extends beyond initial first-choice polling results in Alaska's ranked-choice election. Alaska's general election is Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with polls open 7 a.m.–8 p.m. [6]. Early voting began October 19, and voter registration closed October 4 [6]. Alaska's ranked-choice voting system eliminates the lowest candidate in rounds until one candidate exceeds 50% of active votes [6]. Ranked-choice transfers, the small same-name Sullivan candidacy, late absentee and questioned-ballot counting, and the pending federal certification lawsuit could all affect when and how a winner is formally determined [2].
Sources (6)
- 1Alaska Senate winner? (Party) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-election-winnerpolymarket.com
- 3Peltola Senate Chances After NYT Spoiler Report | Prediction.comprediction.com
- 4Alaska Senate Race 2026 | PollingSourcepollingsource.com
- 5Polymarket and Kalshi Turn Midterm Elections Into a...nytimes.com
- 6Election Calendar - Division of Electionselections.alaska.gov
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves based on the official winner of the Alaska Senate race. A contract on a specific candidate resolves to "Yes" if that individual is officially declared the winner, and "No" if they are not. Trading for this market begins on November 3, 11:59 PM EST, with a maximum payout date of November 3, 2027, based on the race's official outcome.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | $0.70 | $0.31 | 69% |
| Dan Sullivan | $0.33 | $0.68 | 33% |
| Daniel J. Sullivan | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Gerald Heikes | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Ann Diener | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Richard Grayson | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Sid Hill | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders on Kalshi overwhelmingly predict Mary Peltola (D) will win the Alaska Senate race, giving her a 69% probability compared to incumbent Dan Sullivan's (R) 33%. Peltola's favored position appears to stem from her higher fundraising ($32.6M vs. $11.2M) and slightly better polling (49.8% vs. 47.1%), as she campaigns on affordability and fishery protection. Despite Alaska's historical lean towards Republican presidential candidates, the market consensus points to Peltola as the clear frontrunner.
4. Trust Index
Largest single print on KXAKSENATE-26NOV03-DSUL carried 88% of its $1,820 tape (contract holds 8.8% of the event's money; window is 11% of 24h flow)
Integrity risk· Large trades
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score91Strong
Trade quality20% of score71Good
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score87Strong
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. How do Mary Peltola's and Dan Sullivan's Q3 2026 fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compare, based on FEC filings?
| Mary Peltola Q3 2026 Fundraising | $17.0 million [1] |
|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan Q3 2026 Fundraising | Approximately $3.585 million ($2.7 million from principal committee, $885,000 from joint committee) [1][2] |
| Peltola Outraised Sullivan Q3 2026 | Roughly $14.3 million [3] |
Mary Peltola significantly outraised Dan Sullivan during the third quarter of 2026. This period, which spanned from July 1 to September 30, saw Peltola collect $17.0 million [1]. In contrast, Dan Sullivan's campaign raised approximately $2.7 million through his principal committee and an additional $885,000 from a joint fundraising committee [1][2]. This financial disparity meant Peltola outraised Sullivan by roughly $14.3 million [3]. These reported figures specifically concern funds controlled by the campaigns and do not include outside independent expenditures [3].
Dan Sullivan held more cash on hand despite being outraised. Despite collecting less in the quarter, Sullivan concluded Q3 2026 with approximately $1.94 million more cash on hand than Mary Peltola [3]. Peltola's campaign publicly announced her $17 million Q3 fundraising total on October 13, 2026, at which time her campaign had not yet disclosed its quarter-end cash on hand. Similarly, Sullivan's Q3 figures were also not available when Peltola's announcement was made [4][5].
Sources (5)
- 1The Downballot's 3Q 2026 Senate and House fundraising...the-downballot.com
- 2Democratic candidates dominate Q3 fundraisingpunchbowl.news
- 32026 Alaska Election: Senate & House Candidates & Dan...votesee.org
- 4Mary Peltola raises $17M in Q3 in Alaska's Senate racepolitico.com
- 5Mary Peltola raises $17 million in Alaska Senate race - Peepalspeepalsglobal.com
6. What polling evidence from Q3-Q4 2026 supports Mary Peltola's lead in final-round ranked-choice voting scenarios against Dan Sullivan?
| Peltola's Polling Average Lead | +2.3 points (48.6% vs. 46.3%) in RCV round (September 24-October 16) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Largest Peltola Lead (NYT/Siena) | Peltola 50% vs. Sullivan 43% (+7-point lead) (September 24-October 1) [1][2][3] |
| Alaska Election System | Ranked-choice voting requiring majority support [4][2] |
Polling evidence from the third and fourth quarters of 2026 consistently showed Mary Peltola with a narrow lead over Dan Sullivan in final-round ranked-choice voting scenarios. This reflected an October shift in Peltola's favor. A reported polling average spanning September 24 to October 16 indicated Peltola at 48.6% against Dan Sullivan's 46.3%, giving her a +2.3-point advantage in this two-candidate ranked-choice voting round [1][2][3].
Several October surveys reinforced Peltola's advantage, though some indicated a tighter race. Data for Progress (October 8-16) showed leads of 2, 3, and 3 points in various scenarios, while InsiderAdvantage (October 9-10) reported Peltola at 50.1% to Sullivan's 48.0% (+2.1) [1]. A Public Policy Polling survey (October 14-15) placed Peltola ahead 48% to 47% (+1), and The New York Times/Siena (September 24-October 1) showed a more substantial lead of 50% to 43% (+7) [1][2][3]. However, Quantus Insights (September 28-30) surveys indicated slight leads for Sullivan of 0.3 and 0.6 points, suggesting Peltola's support was a persistent yet modest late-period edge [1][2][3].
Alaska's ranked-choice voting system makes final-round polling particularly relevant for the 2026 federal general election. This system mandates majority support for a winner [4][2]. The general election ballot features four candidates: Mary Peltola, incumbent Dan S. Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and Gerald Heikes [2][3][4]. The presence of two candidates named Sullivan is noted as potentially creating transfer or spoiler issues, which makes final-round scenario polling more indicative of the outcome than initial first-choice comparisons [2][3][4].
7. What are the key legal decision points and deadlines for the federal lawsuit concerning Daniel J. Sullivan's name on the 2026 ballot?
| Key Legal Decision | Judge Sharon Gleason's ruling on motions to dismiss [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Potential Ruling Date | As early as Friday, October 30 [1][2][3] |
| Lawsuit Objective | Block or delay certification if incumbent loses due to potential miscast votes [1][3][4] |
Judge Sharon Gleason's ruling on a federal lawsuit is central to the expedited schedule. The primary legal action revolves around Judge Gleason's decision regarding motions to dismiss a federal lawsuit [1][2][3]. An expedited timeline could lead to a decision as early as Friday, October 30, following Alaska's request for dismissal by November 2, the day before the November 3 general election [1][2][3]. Key legal questions include the scope of the National Voter Registration Act, the Department of Justice's authority in election administration, the Supremacy Clause as a basis for relief, and the adequacy of Alaska's ballot distinctions in preventing voter confusion [1][5][6][2].
The lawsuit seeks to delay election certification, not remove a candidate from the ballot. This federal lawsuit, filed shortly before the election, does not aim to remove Daniel J. Sullivan from the finalized ballot [1][3][4][7]. Instead, it petitions the court to block or delay the certification of the Senate election results, specifically if incumbent Dan S. Sullivan loses and the outcome potentially could have been influenced by votes allegedly miscast due to name confusion [1][3][4]. The available research indicates no fixed post-election certification date or a workable method for inferring voter intent from secret ballots [1][6][7][4].
Post-election certification is the primary focus, with limited risk for prediction markets. For prediction markets, the legally relevant risk is concentrated after the November 3 vote [8][9][10]. If the case is dismissed on or around Election Day, ordinary Alaska certification procedures would remain in effect [8][9][10]. However, a surviving case could only delay or complicate certification under the narrow scenario where the incumbent loses and potential confusion played a role [1][6][7][4]. A separate criminal investigation by the Department of Justice is developing, but it does not directly determine ballot eligibility or the federal certification injunction [11][1].
Sources (11)
- 1State of Alaska says DOJ lawsuit over Senate race 'has no...alaskapublic.org
- 2Does the Alaska election lawsuit have a chance?news.harvard.edu
- 3Alaska Senate: Judge fast-tracks DOJ lawsuit after Peltola...cnbc.com
- 4Trump's administration sues to block a possible Democratic...alaskapublic.org
- 5DOJ's Alaska Senate Election Lawsuit Is Meritless, But...verdict.justia.com
- 6DOJ escalates Alaska Senate lawsuit over dueling Sullivan...cnbc.com
- 7What's going on with Dan Sullivan and...pbs.org
- 8US Senate Markets | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 92026 Alaska Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 10Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 11DOJ issues new subpoenas in Alaska Senate probe, asks...cbsnews.com
8. What historical data from Alaska's 2022 elections models how minor candidate votes are likely to transfer between Peltola and Sullivan under ranked-choice voting?
| Begich Transfer to Palin (2022 House Special) | 50.3% to Palin, 28.7% to Peltola [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Begich Transfer to Palin (2022 House Nov) | 66.8% to Palin, 11.6% to Peltola [1] |
| Chesbro Transfer to GOP (2022 Senate) | Approximately 90.2% to Murkowski, 9.8% to Tshibaka (among allocated transfers) [3][4][5] |
Alaska's 2022 elections offer insights into ranked-choice vote transfers. Historical data from the 2022 U.S. House and Senate elections in Alaska provides a basis for modeling how minor candidate votes might transfer between Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting. The U.S. House elections are particularly relevant for understanding transfers from Republican-aligned minor candidates to a Republican finalist against a Democrat [1][2][3]. Conversely, the U.S. Senate race offers a model for transfers from Democratic minor candidates [3].
Republican minor candidate votes show strong transfers to Republican finalists. In the 2022 U.S. House RCV special election, Republican Nick Begich's first-choice ballots largely transferred to Sarah Palin (50.3%) over Mary Peltola (28.7%), with 20.9% of votes being exhausted [1][2]. This pattern persisted in the November 2022 House election, where Begich's transferable round-2 ballots went primarily to Palin (66.8%) compared to Peltola (11.6%), with 21.5% exhausted [1]. These outcomes collectively demonstrate a clear preference for votes from a Republican minor candidate to transfer to a Republican finalist when facing a Democrat in a head-to-head contest [1][2].
Democratic minor candidate votes primarily transferred to a Republican incumbent. The 2022 Alaska Senate race illustrates transfers from a Democratic minor candidate, Patricia Chesbro. Her eliminated ballots predominantly transferred to Republican Lisa Murkowski, accounting for approximately 70.6% of her full round-2 total or 90.2% of explicitly allocated transfers [3][4][5]. A smaller portion transferred to Republican Kelly Tshibaka, approximately 7.6% of her full round-2 total or 9.8% of explicitly allocated transfers [3][4][5]. It is crucial to remember that not all minor-candidate first-choice votes automatically transfer entirely to either finalist, as ranked-choice voting rules allow for exhausted ballots [6].
Sources (6)
- 1RcvDetailedReportelections.alaska.gov
- 2State of Alaska 2022 SPECIAL GENERAL ELECTION RCV Tabulation August 16, 2022 OFFICIAL RESULTSelections.alaska.gov
- 3Federal Elections 2022fec.gov
- 4Alaska's ranked choice voting winners earn strong...fairvote.org
- 5United States Senate election in Alaska, 2022ballotpedia.org
- 6State of Alaska - OFFICIAL ELECTION PAMPHLETelections.alaska.gov
9. What impact could a late-October 2026 endorsement from Donald Trump have on Dan Sullivan's polling, based on precedents from the 2022 and 2024 cycles?
| Predicted Trump endorsement effect | 1 to 3 percentage points for Dan Sullivan [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Alaska Senate Polling Baseline (Oct 29, 2026) | Mary Peltola 48.6%, Dan Sullivan 46.3% (Prediction Edge) [1][4] |
| 2022 Alaska Senate Election Result | Lisa Murkowski 53.7% vs. Kelly Tshibaka 46.3% (ranked-choice) [5][6][7] |
A late-October 2026 endorsement from Donald Trump could modestly boost Dan Sullivan's support. This intervention, which included public attacks on Mary Peltola, is projected to yield an improvement of approximately 1 to 3 percentage points in first-choice support for Sullivan or a comparable narrowing of Peltola's lead [1][2][3]. Such an endorsement would also likely increase Sullivan's prediction market probability from around 30%-32% to the high-30s or low-40s [1][6][7][3]. As of October 29, 2026, the Alaska Senate polling baseline indicated a small Mary Peltola advantage, with Prediction Edge averaging Peltola 48.6% and Sullivan 46.3%, and PoliAgg reporting a roughly Peltola +1.9-point margin [1][4].
Alaska's 2022 election results suggest a Trump endorsement may not guarantee victory. The 2022 Alaska Senate election provides a significant precedent, demonstrating that even a Trump endorsement may not secure a win within the state's ranked-choice voting system [5][6][7]. In that election, despite Trump's endorsement of Kelly Tshibaka, Lisa Murkowski won the ranked-choice election with 53.7% to Tshibaka's 46.3%, with late-October polling already showing Murkowski ahead in the simulated final round [6][7][5]. This historical outcome implies that while a Trump boost could aid turnout, it might not be sufficient to overcome structural factors or ranked-choice ballot transfers, especially considering Sullivan's reportedly deteriorating favorability and the fact that no post-intervention poll was yet available for the 2026 race [3][1][6][7].
Sources (7)
- 12026 Alaska Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 2Alaska Democrats just handed Trump a political giftcnn.com
- 3Sullivan vs. Peltola: Alaska Senate Odds and AI Prediction · Sikt Intelligencesiktintelligence.com
- 4Alaska Senate 2026 Polls — Peltola vs Heikes — PoliAggpoliagg.com
- 5Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski wins reelection in Alaskapbs.org
- 6United States Senate election in Alaska, 2022ballotpedia.org
- 7Murkowski, Peltola win in Alaskapolitico.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Mary Peltola is the clear market favorite for the Alaska Senate seat as of October 30, 2026, with Kalshi pricing her at 69%–70%, Polymarket at 71%, and a cross-venue consensus of 70.7% [1][2][3][4][5]. Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan holds approximately 29%–32% [1][2][3][4][5]. Non-market evidence also favors Peltola, though narrowly; The Hill/DDHQ model gives her a 60% win probability, Rasmussen reports Peltola 44% versus Sullivan 42% among likely voters, and the latest Alaska Survey Research poll shows Peltola 47% against Dan Sullivan 45% [4][6][7]. Bullish catalysts for Peltola include her persistent polling lead, stronger fundraising of $32.6 million compared to Sullivan’s $11.2 million, and broad agreement among markets and models regarding her higher win probability [1][2][3][5][8].
The principal late-cycle bearish catalyst for Peltola is the reported allegation that campaign aides assisted in recruiting Dan J. Sullivan as a same-name spoiler, an involvement Peltola and the DSCC deny [8]. The market reportedly dropped from about 75% to 70% following this report [8]. A second major uncertainty involves litigation over certification and Dan J. Sullivan’s candidacy; the Alaska Supreme Court ruled him qualified to run, while a DOJ-related suit seeking to block certification if Peltola wins was pending with a possible ruling around October 30 [8]. Bearish catalysts also include a late polling reversal, potential spoiler-related backlash or legal developments, and ranked-choice transfers consolidating behind Sullivan [8].
Key timeline dates are critical: October 30, 2026, is the current date and a potential court-ruling date [8][9]; November 2 at 5 p.m. Alaska Time is the deadline for electronic/fax ballot applications [10]; November 3 is Election Day, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. [11]; U.S.-mailed absentee ballots must arrive by November 13, and overseas ballots by November 18 [12]; the Alaska Division of Elections lists November 25 as the target certification date [12]. Market resolution may lag Election Day; Polymarket resolves upon calls from AP, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification, with an event closure around November 4 [3]. Kalshi's displayed settlement date is November 3, 2027, and permits an 'Other' outcome if results are unconfirmed by July 31, 2027 [5].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (12)
- 1Alaska Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Pollskalshi.com
- 2Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 3https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-election-winnerpolymarket.com
- 4Who will win Alaska Senate? | The Hill and DDHQelections2026.thehill.com
- 5Alaska Senate Election Winner Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Marketsthepredictionmarkets.com
- 6Election 2026: Alaska Senate - Rasmussen Reports®rasmussenreports.com
- 7PB Polls — Alaska Survey Researchpolls.politicalbetting.com
- 8Peltola Senate Chances After NYT Spoiler Report | Prediction.comprediction.com
- 94 key dates to know in Alaska’s 2026 midterm elections - The Alaska Currentthealaskacurrent.com
- 10Your Alaska voter guide: Compare candidates and their positionsalaskapublic.org
- 11Alaska 2026 General Election Candidates | SparkVotessparkvotes.org
- 12Election Calendar - Division of Electionselections.alaska.gov
