Alaska Senate
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Mary Peltola to win the Alaska Senate seat in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
Based on the provided chart data, the prediction market for the Alaska Senate winner shows a clear and consistent upward trend. The implied probability for a "YES" outcome began at 39.0% and has steadily climbed to its current price of 45.0%, which also marks the high end of its trading range. This represents a 6-percentage-point increase over the observed period. The price movement has been methodical, as seen in the progression from 39.0% to 42.0% and then to 45.0%, without any significant pullbacks or volatility.
The specific cause for this sustained increase in price is not apparent from the information provided, as no external news or context was available. The movement appears to be driven by shifts in trader sentiment rather than a reaction to a specific public event. While the total traded volume of 2,338 contracts indicates a moderately active market, the sample data points show zero volume, making it difficult to correlate specific price jumps with periods of high trading activity. This suggests that trading occurred between the dates of the provided samples.
From a technical perspective, the initial price of 39.0% has established itself as a firm support level, as the market has not traded below this point. The current price of 45.0% is acting as the immediate resistance level. A break above this point would signal a continuation of the positive trend. Overall, the price action suggests a growing bullish sentiment among market participants. The steady climb reflects increasing confidence and a consensus building that the "YES" side of the contract is becoming more likely to resolve favorably.
- Dan Sullivan benefits from strong incumbent status and key endorsements.
- Sullivan faces low approval and limited individual Alaskan donor support.
- Mary Peltola demonstrated robust Q1 2026 fundraising, strong local base.
- Peltola lacks explicit first-choice endorsements from state political figures.
- Sullivan consistently champions increased federal oil and gas leasing.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 59.0% | 59.6% | Strong Q1 2026 fundraising demonstrates robust grassroots support from individual Alaskan donors. |
| Dan Sullivan | 45.0% | 37.8% | He benefits from strong incumbent status and key endorsements from state political figures. |
| Ann Diener | 0.9% | 0.8% | Lacks significant campaign funding and public recognition in initial reporting. |
| Richard Grayson | 1.0% | 0.9% | Lacks significant campaign funding and public recognition in initial reporting. |
| Sid Hill | 1.0% | 0.9% | Lacks significant campaign funding and public recognition in initial reporting. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Mary Peltola wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, and "No" if she does not, with the outcome verified by the State of Alaska and United States Congress. Trading for this market begins on January 30, 2026, and it will close early upon the official declaration or certification of the election winner, or by November 3, 2027, at the latest. Contested results are settled based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority, and if results are annulled before the winner takes office, the market remains open until a re-run election or the specified closing date of November 3, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | $0.59 | $0.42 | 59% |
| Dan Sullivan | $0.44 | $0.59 | 45% |
| Richard Grayson | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Sid Hill | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Ann Diener | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Traders are divided on the Alaska Senate race, with Mary Peltola currently favored at 59% but facing skepticism. Arguments for Peltola winning point to her leading in current polls and a belief that Alaska might be less Republican than typically perceived, or that external factors like the economy could benefit her. Conversely, those betting against her contend that her probability is too high given Alaska's strong "Red State" fundamentals (cited as 58%/42% Republican), suggesting that the incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is likely to narrowly win.
4. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score94Strong
Trade quality20% of score67Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 59% of the price to slippage.
Trust score88Strong
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. What is Senator Dan Sullivan's Approval Among Alaskan Independent Voters?
| Most Recent Poll Date | February 5, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Second Most Recent Poll Date | January 14, 2026 [2] |
| Specific Independent Voter Data | Not available in research [3] |
Specific data on Senator Dan Sullivan's net approval among non-partisan voters is unavailable. The provided web research does not offer specific data on Senator Dan Sullivan's net approval rating among registered non-partisan/independent voters in Alaska. While several polls conducted by Alaska Survey Research have been referenced, none of the available sources offer the precise breakdown for this specific demographic. These polls are broadly related to "Peltola Vs. Sullivan" tracking surveys by Alaska Survey Research [3].
Recent polls indicate declining approval for Senator Sullivan among Alaskans. The three most recent polls cited, conducted by Alaska Survey Research, include findings from February 5, 2026 [1], January 14, 2026 [2], and August 5, 2025 [4]. These surveys indicate general trends such as "Sen. Dan Sullivan hits a new low with Alaskans" in February 2026 [1] and that "Alaskans are broadly unhappy" with him as of August 2025 [4]. However, the crucial data point—Dan Sullivan's net approval rating specifically among registered non-partisan/independent voters—is not detailed within the provided research materials.
Sources (4)
- 1Poll shows Sen. Dan Sullivan hits a new low with Alaskans - The Alaska Currentthealaskacurrent.com
- 2Poll: Peltola opens race for U.S. Senate with slight edge on Sullivan - The Alaska Currentthealaskacurrent.com
- 3Peltola Vs. Sullivan - Alaska Survey Researchalaskasurveyresearch.com
- 4Poll: Alaskans are broadly unhappy with Dunleavy, Murkowski and Sullivan - The Alaska Currentthealaskacurrent.com
6. Are Second-Choice Endorsements Public for Alaska's 2026 Senate Election?
| Explicit Second-Choice Endorsements | None identified from prominent state-level figures or groups (Based on web research) [1] |
|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan First-Choice Endorsements | Senator Lisa Murkowski [2], Nick Begich [3], Teamsters union [4], Alaska Native leaders [5] |
| Mary Peltola First-Choice Endorsements | "Biden alumni" [4] |
Currently, no candidate has explicit second-choice endorsements from primary supporters of another. Based on available web research for Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate election, no candidate has been explicitly identified as receiving second-choice preference endorsements from prominent state-level political figures or groups who have already endorsed a different candidate as their first choice. The research primarily focuses on and details numerous first-choice endorsements rather than quantifying or specifying second-choice preferences within Alaska's ranked-choice voting system.
Incumbent Dan Sullivan has secured numerous first-choice endorsements from key figures. Senator Lisa Murkowski has publicly backed Sullivan for his re-election [6]. While Murkowski also extended "well wishes" to Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, this expression does not constitute a second-choice endorsement, as her explicit support remains with Sullivan [2]. Additionally, Republican Nick Begich has exchanged endorsements with Sullivan [3]. Further first-choice endorsements for Sullivan include the Teamsters union and various Alaska Native leaders across the state [4].
Mary Peltola receives first-choice backing, but no second-choice endorsements are specified. Conversely, Mary Peltola has received first-choice endorsements from "Biden alumni" [4]. However, the research does not indicate any prominent political figures or groups publicly designating Peltola or any other candidate as their second-choice preference while endorsing someone else as their first choice. The provided information consistently highlights direct, first-preference endorsements, without detailing the strategic second-choice rankings often relevant in ranked-choice elections.
Sources (6)
- 12026 United States Senate election in Alaskaen.wikipedia.org
- 2Shifting Murkowski offers ‘well’ wishes to Democrat Peltola, but agrees to back Sullivan for U.S. Senatealaskawatchman.com
- 3Begich exchanges endorsements with Sullivan who faces a familiar foealaskawatchman.com
- 4Sullivan picks up valued endorsement from Teamsters, while Biden alumni lining up behind Mary - Alaska Storythealaskastory.com
- 5Alaska Native leaders across the state line up early behind Sullivan’s 2026 re-election - Alaska Storythealaskastory.com
- 6Peltola Senate challenge draws national battle lines as Murkowski backs Sullivanwebcenterfairbanks.com
7. How Did Peltola's Campaign Funding Ratio Compare to Sullivan's in Q1 2026?
| Peltola Alaskan Donor Ratio | Approximately 3.19:1 [1] |
|---|---|
| Sullivan Alaskan Donor Ratio | Approximately 0.88:1 [2] |
| Peltola Total Q1 2026 Contributions | $1.15 million [1] |
In the first quarter of 2026, Mary Peltola's campaign demonstrated a substantially higher ratio of funds received from individual Alaskan donors compared to Political Action Committees (PACs) and out-of-state donors, relative to Dan Sullivan's campaign. Peltola's ratio was approximately 3.19:1, while Sullivan's stood at about 0.88:1.
Peltola's campaign raised over $1 million, largely from Alaskan individuals. Her campaign collected $1.15 million in the first quarter of 2026 [1]. Of this, $1.09 million came from individual contributions [1], with 80% ($872,000) originating from Alaskan donors [1]. Considering $55,000 from PACs and $218,000 from out-of-state individual donors [1], Peltola's ratio of Alaskan individual donors to combined PAC and out-of-state individual donors was approximately 3.19:1.
In contrast, Dan Sullivan's campaign raised less overall, with fewer Alaskan contributions. Sullivan's campaign reported raising approximately $220,000 in total contributions during Q1 2026 [2]. Of the $214,460 received from individual contributions [2], 48% came from Alaskans, totaling $102,940.80 [1]. With $5,000 from PACs [2] and $111,519.20 from out-of-state individual donors [1], Sullivan's ratio of Alaskan individual donors to combined PAC and out-of-state individual donors was approximately 0.88:1.
8. Has Dan Sullivan's Right-Wing Challenger Raised $1 Million?
| Declared Challenger | Dustin Darden (Republican) for U.S. Senate Alaska 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Challenger Funds > $1M (Q4 2025) | Not indicated by provided sources [1] |
| Democratic Candidate Funds (Q4 2025) | Mary Peltola reported over $2.6 million raised [2] |
No right-wing primary challenger to Dan Sullivan met specified financial thresholds. Dustin Darden is a declared Republican candidate challenging incumbent Dan Sullivan for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska [1]. However, available research does not indicate that Darden, or any other primary challenger positioned to Sullivan's right, had surpassed $1 million in declared campaign funds by the end of Q4 2025. Furthermore, the sources do not specify if Darden or any other potential right-wing challenger has received an endorsement from the Alaska Republican Assembly [1].
Mary Peltola, a Democratic challenger, reported substantial fundraising for her Senate bid. While the initial inquiry focused on a primary challenger from the right, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola announced her Senate bid in January 2025 [3]. By December 31, 2025, Peltola had raised over $2.6 million and concluded the year with $2.1 million cash on hand [2]. It is important to note that Peltola is not considered a primary challenger to Sullivan from the right [3].
Sources (3)
9. What Are Candidates' Stances on Federal Oil Leasing in NPR-A?
| Sullivan's NPR-A Stance | Advocates for increased federal oil and gas leasing, highlights "historic" lease sales [1] |
|---|---|
| Peltola's Willow Project Support | Supports the Willow Project within the NPR-A [2] |
| Sullivan's Policy Advocacy | Actively worked to rescind "Biden-era lock-up" of NPR-A [3] |
Senator Dan Sullivan consistently champions increased federal oil and gas leasing within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. He frequently highlights "historic" lease sales in the NPR-A as evidence of an "Alaska comeback" [1]. Sullivan has also actively campaigned to rescind what he describes as the "Biden-era lock-up of Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve," issuing press releases to this effect [3]. This pro-development stance is strongly supported by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which promotes a "Dan Sullivan Delivers" narrative [4].
Mary Peltola's official position supports the Willow Project, a major oil development in the NPR-A. Her campaign website indicates support for this specific project, demonstrating a pro-development stance on a significant NPR-A initiative [2]. While her broader campaign messaging on general NPR-A leasing policies is not detailed in the available research, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has framed her energy policies critically, evidenced by a digital ad titled "Mary Peltola is Alaska Last" [5]. The positions of both candidates on energy development within the NPR-A are recognized as central components of their respective campaigns, as highlighted by the Anchorage Daily News when Peltola launched her Senate bid against Sullivan [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Dan Sullivan - Last month’s historic lease sale in the... | Facebookfacebook.com
- 2Willow for Alaskamarypeltola.com
- 3Senate Rescinds Biden-era Lock-Up of Alaska’s National Petroleum Reservesullivan.senate.gov
- 4NEW DIGITAL AD: Dan Sullivan Delivers – NRSCnrsc.org
- 5NEW DIGITAL AD: ‘Mary Peltola is Alaska Last – NRSCnrsc.org
- 6Former US Rep. Mary Peltola launches Senate bid against incumbent Dan Sullivan - Anchorage Daily Newsadn.com
