Short Answer

Abdul El-Sayed is likely to win the 2026 Michigan Senate race, supported by Decision Desk HQ forecasts of a 69-70% win probability, with the market pricing this outcome at 64.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's valuation of Abdul El-Sayed's chances has declined due to recent polling that shows the Michigan Senate race is a statistical dead heat. Reports indicate Republican Mike Rogers has eliminated a polling lead El-Sayed held in August. This development is the primary driver behind the contract's price move from 40% to its current level of 36%.
The price action suggests the market is pricing in a highly competitive race. The contract has traded within a narrow 8-point band since inception, consistent with polling that has remained within the margin of error. The sideways trend shows a market that sees no clear favorite emerging between El-Sayed and Rogers at this stage.
  • Since last update (~34d): The model's edge for the headline outcome flipped from -3.2 to 0.7 (+3.9pp).
  • Abdul El-Sayed's model probability gained +7.7pp (model_led), compressing his edge.
  • Mike Rogers' model probability dropped -7.8pp (model_led), compressing his edge.
  • Overall confidence in the prediction decreased from 9.0 to 8.0 (-1.0pp).
  • Abdul El-Sayed leads, Decision Desk HQ forecasts a 69-70% win probability.
  • Mike Rogers remains competitive; The Cook Political Report rates the race a "toss-up."
  • Haley Stevens and Mallory McMorrow are not nominees; El-Sayed won the August 4, 2026 primary.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Mike Rogers 36.0% 36.7% The Michigan Senate race is described as a 'statistical dead heat' and a 'toss-up' by The Cook Political Report.
Abdul El-Sayed 64.0% 62.6% Decision Desk HQ forecasts a strong advantage for Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race.
Haley Stevens 1.0% 0.4% Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary, meaning Haley Stevens is not the party's nominee.
Mallory McMorrow 1.0% 0.4% Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary, meaning Mallory McMorrow is not the party's nominee.

Current Context

The Michigan U.S. Senate race is a statistical dead heat [1][2][3]. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are separated by margins within the error range in recent polling [1][2][3]. Nonpartisan election analysts and forecasting models, including the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ, classify this Michigan Senate seat as a toss-up [1][4][3][5]. This contest to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters is considered the Republican Party's primary opportunity to gain a seat in the U.S. Senate, within a closely divided national environment [6][7][8][9].
The election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, remains undecided [10][11][12][9]. Early in-person voting in Michigan begins on Saturday, October 24, 2026 [10][11][12]. The general election candidates are Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat), Mike Rogers (Republican), Douglas P. Marsh (Green), Lydia Christensen (Libertarian/Independent), and Timothy Long (U.S. Taxpayers Party) [9]. As of September 9, 2026, the election has not occurred, and no winner has been determined [9].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Mike Rogers, Abdul El-Sayed deadlocked in Michigan Senate race: Surveythehill.com
  2. 2Mike Rogers Wipes Out Abdul El-Sayed’s August Polling Lead As Michigan Senate Race Hits Dead Heatnewmediadetroit.com
  3. 3Michigan Senate Race 2026 | PollingSourcepollingsource.com
  4. 42026 Michigan US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5Senate fight reaches 'pure toss-up' status before midterms, DDHQ saysthehill.com
  6. 6Trump's approval slump and candidate quality drive 2026 Senate races | Brookingsbrookings.edu
  7. 7The GOP was confident about keeping its Senate majority. Now the fight for control is wide open - ABC Newsabcnews.com
  8. 8Major Senate Forecast Shifts Toward Democrats - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  9. 9U.S. Senate race in Michigan between El-Sayed (D) and Rogers (R) to help determine control of the chamber - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  10. 10Election Calendar of Datesmichigan.gov
  11. 11Michigan 2026 elections: Dates, deadlines and a key special election - Bridge Michiganbridgemi.com
  12. 122026 Michigan Voter Guide - Bridge Michiganbridgemi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For each individual candidate market (e.g., Abdul El-Sayed), a "YES" resolution is triggered if that person wins the Michigan Senate election, and a "NO" resolution is triggered if they do not win. The market begins on November 3, 8:00 AM EST, with a maximum payout date set for November 3, 2027. No specific settlement conditions beyond the winner/loser determination are detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Abdul El-Sayed $0.64 $0.37 64%
Mike Rogers $0.36 $0.65 36%
Haley Stevens $0.01 $1.00 1%
Mallory McMorrow $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

The Michigan U.S. Senate seat is an open race for the 2026 general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. The key candidates for the general election are Abdul El-Sayed, who won the Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, and Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee [1][2][5]. As of September 4, 2026, election forecasters project a lead for Abdul El-Sayed, though no winner has been determined as of September 9, 2026 [6][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate primary | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 22026 United States Senate election in Michigan - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 32026 Michigan US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4U.S. Senate race in Michigan between El-Sayed (D) and Rogers (R) to help determine control of the chamber - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Abdul El-Sayed (D) defeated Haley Stevens (D) in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan on August 4, 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  6. 62026 Michigan US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 72026 Michigan US Senate Pollingvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 82 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score75Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 3% of the price to slippage.

Trust score82Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
83Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
82Deep

Size fills near the screen price

4 contracts · worst first

Mike Rogers79
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Abdul El-Sayed84
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.5% of price over 7 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,569 · 24h
Mallory McMorrow—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Haley Stevens—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

4 contracts · worst first

Abdul El-Sayed—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Mike Rogers—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Mallory McMorrow—
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Haley Stevens—
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

4 contracts · worst first

Abdul El-Sayed100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Mike Rogers100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Mallory McMorrow100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Haley Stevens100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
75Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 82 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.9c slippage (~1% of a 68.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 1.4c slippage (~2% of a 68.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 2.0c slippage (~3% of a 68.5c contract)

Abdul El-Sayed84Market scoreLiquidity84Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 84
Liquidity
84 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.5% of price over 7 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,569 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Mike Rogers79Market scoreLiquidity79Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 79
Liquidity
79 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Mallory McMorrow–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Haley Stevens–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 22, 2026

5. How do the Q3 2026 fundraising totals and cash-on-hand figures for Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers compare heading into the final weeks of the campaign?

Mike Rogers Total Raised$23,644,005 (July 2026 FEC reports) [1]
Abdul El-Sayed Total Raised$14,514,336 (July 2026 FEC reports) [1]
Abdul El-Sayed Cash-on-Hand$2,552,762 (as of pre-primary filing date) [2][3]
Mike Rogers significantly outraised Abdul El-Sayed, reporting higher expenditures. As of the July 2026 quarterly FEC reports, Mike Rogers' campaign disclosed raising $23,644,005 and incurring $17,978,427 in expenditures. In contrast, during the same reporting period, Abdul El-Sayed's campaign reported raising $14,514,336 with expenditures totaling $11,961,573 [1].
Rogers maintained a substantially larger cash reserve than Abdul El-Sayed. For cash-on-hand, Abdul El-Sayed's campaign reported $2,552,762 as of the pre-primary filing date, which covers through the August 4, 2026, primary election [2][3]. Separately, as of the most recent public FEC data covering through June 30, 2026, Mike Rogers had approximately $4.47 million in cash on hand [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 12026 Michigan US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 2FEC Disclosure Form 3 for Abdul for US Senatedocquery.fec.gov
  3. 3FEC Disclosure Form 3 for Abdul for US Senatedocquery.fec.gov
  4. 4Michigan Senate Election 2026 Candidates: El-Sayed Favoredoddsshopper.com

6. What are the final 2026 race ratings for the Michigan Senate contest from major nonpartisan forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ?

Cook Political Report RatingToss-Up (as of September 9, 2026 [1][2])
Decision Desk HQ RatingLean Democratic (as of September 9, 2026 [3][4][5])
Decision Desk HQ Win Probability (El-Sayed)70% (as of September 9, 2026 [3][4][5][6])
As of September 9, 2026, nonpartisan forecasters have provided varied ratings for the Michigan U.S. Senate contest. The Cook Political Report assesses the competition between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers as a Toss-Up [1][2]. This rating indicates that the race is highly competitive with no clear advantage for either candidate according to their analysis.
Decision Desk HQ projects a Lean Democratic outcome for Michigan's Senate contest. In contrast to The Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ has rated the Michigan U.S. Senate race as Lean Democratic [3][4][5]. Their forecast further provides specific win probabilities, indicating a 70% chance of victory for Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Republican Mike Rogers is given a 30% probability of winning the contest [3][4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 12026 CPR Senate Race ratings - Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  2. 2Michigan Senate Odds 2026: El-Sayed Vs Rogers Verdict | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  3. 32026 Michigan US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 42026 Michigan US Senate Forecastintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 Michigan US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 Michigan US Senate Markets | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

7. What impact could the get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operations of major allied groups, like the DSCC for El-Sayed and the NRSC for Rogers, have on turnout in the final days of the 2026 election?

El-Sayed Poll Lead2.8% to 4.9% (among likely voters) [1][2]
Rogers Win Probability (Prediction Market)Approximately 39% (as of September 2026) [3]
El-Sayed Win Probability (Decision Desk HQ)69% [1]
Major allied groups' GOTV operations critically influence turnout. The get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts of the DSCC for Abdul El-Sayed and the NRSC for Mike Rogers are anticipated to be crucial in influencing turnout during the final days of the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election [1]. A significant development occurred in June 2026 with a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in NRSC v. FEC, which eliminated longstanding restrictions on coordinated expenditures. This decision empowers the DSCC and NRSC to assume a more direct and substantial role in GOTV and voter contact efforts as the election approaches [4][5][6].
Supreme Court ruling significantly expanded party GOTV capabilities. Following the NRSC v. FEC decision, the NRSC integrated its formerly independent voter contact operations directly into candidate campaigns, facilitating centralized coordination for GOTV, polling, data modeling, and scaled media initiatives [5]. Both parties are now deeply engaged in supporting their respective candidates. The DSCC actively supports El-Sayed through joint fundraising vehicles and independent expenditures for voter contact, phone banking, and text messaging; comparable operations are in place for Republican-aligned entities backing Rogers [7][8][9][10][11].
This highly competitive race features close polling and varied predictions. This intensified party involvement takes place within a highly competitive race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. Current polling averages indicate El-Sayed leading by margins of 2.8% to 4.9% among likely voters [1][2]. As of September 2026, prediction markets show Mike Rogers with approximately a 39% chance to win, while Decision Desk HQ projects a 69% win probability for El-Sayed [1][3].
Sources (11)
  1. 12026 Michigan US Senate Forecast - DDHQ Votes - Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 Michigan Senate Polling Polling Average | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 3Michael J. Rogers - 2026 Election Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  4. 4Supreme Court finds limits on coordinated party expenditures... - FECfec.gov
  5. 5[PDF] NRSC v. FEC Q&Anrsc.org
  6. 6FullPAC Sees Expanded U.S. Election Market Followingglobenewswire.com
  7. 7Schedule E for Report FEC-1986849docquery.fec.gov
  8. 8Schedule E for Report FEC-2001347docquery.fec.gov
  9. 9Form 1 for Abdul for Michigan Victory Funddocquery.fec.gov
  10. 10Schedule E for Report FEC-1999196docquery.fec.gov
  11. 11Schedule E for Report FEC-2002298docquery.fec.gov

8. Is precinct-level voting data from the 2022 and 2024 Michigan elections available to model turnout scenarios for the 2026 Rogers vs. El-Sayed contest?

Data availability for modelingPrecinct-level voting data from 2022 and 2024 Michigan elections (Michigan Secretary of State's Voter Information Center, University of Florida Election Lab, VEST) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
2026 Michigan Senate candidatesDemocrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers [1][2][3][4][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]
El-Sayed win probability69% (as of September 9, 2026, from Decision Desk HQ) [12][13][17][18][19]
Precinct-level voting data from recent Michigan elections is accessible. Precinct-level voting data from the 2022 and 2024 Michigan elections is available and can be utilized for turnout scenario modeling in the 2026 Michigan Senate race [1][2][3][4][10][11][12][13]. The Michigan Secretary of State's Voter Information Center (MVIC) provides this official precinct-level data for both the 2022 and 2024 elections [1][2][3][4]. Furthermore, the University of Florida Election Lab and the Voting and Election Science Team (VEST) also offer data for the 2022 and 2024 Michigan general elections, though access to certain data files from these sources may require a subscription [5][6][7][8][9].
The 2026 Michigan Senate race appears highly competitive. This contest, featuring Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers to succeed the retiring Senator Gary Peters, is considered a toss-up [14][15][16]. Polling data from August 2026 indicated that both candidates were near a statistical tie [14][15][16]. However, as of September 9, 2026, Decision Desk HQ forecasts a 69% win probability for Abdul El-Sayed [12][13][17][18][19].
Sources (19)
  1. 1Election results and data - State of Michiganmichigan.gov
  2. 22024 General Election Results - Michigan Voter Information Centermvic.sos.state.mi.us
  3. 3Michigan - Redistricting Data Hubredistrictingdatahub.org
  4. 4Presidential precinct data for the 2024 US general election - GitHubgithub.com
  5. 5» Michigan UF Election Labelection.lab.ufl.edu
  6. 6Documentation24election.lab.ufl.edu
  7. 7Documentation22election.lab.ufl.edu
  8. 8Michigan 2022 General Election Precinct... - UF Election Labelection.lab.ufl.edu
  9. 9» Data Archive UF Election Labelection.lab.ufl.edu
  10. 10Senate Election Odds | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  11. 11Michigan Senate Odds 2026: El-Sayed Vs Rogers Verdict | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  12. 12U.S. Senate race in Michigan between El-Sayed (D) and Rogers (R) to help determine control of the chamber - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  13. 13United States Senate election in Michigan, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  14. 14Michigan U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  15. 15AARP Michigan Poll: Rogers, El-Sayed Nearly Tiedaarp.org
  16. 16Mike Rogers vs. Abdul El-Sayed: 7 issues defining Michigan's US...bridgemi.com
  17. 172026 Michigan US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  18. 182026 Michigan Senate Polling Polling Average | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  19. 192026 Michigan US Senate Pollingvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

9. Which key voter demographics in Michigan show the most significant polling shifts between August and October 2026 for Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers?

Early September Trend Shift5% over one week [1]
Early Sep Polling (Decision Desk HQ)Abdul El-Sayed 46.90%, Mike Rogers 42.00% [1][2]
Recent Prediction Market OddsAbdul El-Sayed 64%, Mike Rogers 36% [3][4]
Limited demographic data precludes precise August-October shift analysis. The available research does not explicitly detail specific voter demographic shifts between August and October 2026 for Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers [1]. However, a demographic divide was observed in late August 2026, revealing that older voters (age 50-plus) favored Mike Rogers with 52% support, compared to 43% for Abdul El-Sayed [5][1]. Separately, a forecast model did note a 5% trend shift over a one-week period in early September [1].
Early September polling showed El-Sayed gaining ground. Polling conducted from August 31 to September 3, 2026, indicated the Michigan U.S. Senate race was statistically a toss-up, with Mike Rogers at 45.8% and Abdul El-Sayed at 44.4% [6][3]. By early September 2026, Decision Desk HQ polling data reflected a shift, showing Abdul El-Sayed with a 46.90% average against Mike Rogers at 42.00% [1][2].
Prediction markets indicate a significant shift favoring El-Sayed. These markets reflected a change in the race dynamics, with recent odds placing Abdul El-Sayed's win probability at approximately 64% compared to about 36% for Mike Rogers [3][4]. This represents a shift from mid-August 2026, when some models had shown a narrower gap between candidates or increased volatility in win probabilities [3][4].
Sources (6)
  1. 12026 Michigan US Senate Forecast - DDHQ Votes - Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 Michigan Senate Polling Polling Average | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 3Rogers, El-Sayed locked in tight Michigan Senate race: Surveythehill.com
  4. 4Michigan Senate winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5AARP Michigan Poll: Rogers, El-Sayed Nearly Tiedaarp.org
  6. 6Mike Rogers, Abdul El-Sayed Senate race in tossup territory, poll...detroitnews.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The U.S. Senate election in Michigan, scheduled for November 3, 2026, features Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers [1][2][3][4]. Prediction markets as of early September 2026 generally favor El-Sayed, with implied probabilities ranging from 59% to 64% [5][6][7][8][9]. The Decision Desk HQ forecast on September 4, 2026, gives Abdul El-Sayed a 69% probability of winning the election, compared to a 31% probability for Mike Rogers [4].
Key catalysts for the race include Democratic party unification following a competitive primary, head-to-head polling in moderate suburban districts, and upcoming debates between the candidates [7][9][10]. These events could influence the outcome before the general election on November 3, 2026 [11][3][4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (11)
  1. 1Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate primary | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 22026 United States Senate election in Michigan - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3U.S. Senate race in Michigan between El-Sayed (D) and Rogers (R) to help determine control of the chamber - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 42026 Michigan US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5Michigan Senate Election Winner - Polymarketpolymarket.com
  6. 6Michigan Senate winner? (Person) — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 72026 Michigan Senate Election Race | Polls, Candidates & Oddspredictionedge.com
  8. 8Michigan Senate Election Winner — Compare Odds on 4 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  9. 9Michigan Senate Election Winner: Polymarket Odds, Predictionsactionnetwork.com
  10. 10Senate 2026 Key Dates: Primary Calendar for All Competitive Races | USPollingData.comuspollingdata.com
  11. 112026 Michigan US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com