Republican party
Market Model 41.0% 55.7%
Democratic party
Market Model 57.0% 44.3%
US Elections Markets
Active Markets (164)
Gavin Newsom
Market Model 21.0% 30.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 14.0% 15.9%
Republican party
Market Model 9.6% 7.1%
Democratic party
Market Model 90.8% 92.9%
Ken Paxton
Market Model 59.0% 60.6%
James Talarico
Market Model 42.0% 39.4%
Republican Party
Market Model 22.0% 17.0%
Democratic Party
Market Model 78.0% 83.0%
Steve Hilton
Market Model 9.9% 5.1%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 89.0% 94.9%
Steve Hilton
Market Model 0.8% 0.0%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 99.3% 100.0%
Mark Smith
Market Model 62.0% 60.9%
Jenny Costa Honeycutt
Market Model 47.0% 39.1%
Karen Bass
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Nithya Raman
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
1 Democrat and 1 Republican
Market Model 87.0% 84.8%
2 Democrats
Market Model 17.0% 15.2%
Spencer Pratt
Market Model 36.0% 52.5%
Nithya Raman
Market Model 62.0% 47.5%
Yes
Market Model 68.0% 62.9%
Ken Paxton, 20%+
Market Model 99.8% 99.9%
Ken Paxton, 15-20%
Market Model 0.2% 0.0%
Republican party
Market Model 76.0% 79.1%
Democratic party
Market Model 24.0% 20.9%
Elaine Pelino
Market Model 37.0% 32.3%
Aaron Guckian
Market Model 63.0% 65.2%
Esther Kim Varet
Market Model 39.0% 26.0%
Young Kim
Market Model 86.0% 81.5%
Randy Villegas
Market Model 44.0% 31.0%
Rudy Salas
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Alex Balazs
Market Model 5.0% 3.9%
Julie Fedorchak
Market Model 97.0% 92.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 18.0% 13.6%
Republican party
Market Model 83.0% 86.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 94.0% 96.8%
Republican party
Market Model 7.3% 3.2%
Republican party
Market Model 95.2% 95.6%
Democratic party
Market Model 7.0% 4.4%
Republican party
Market Model 7.0% 3.1%
Democratic party
Market Model 95.9% 96.9%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Jamie Davis
Market Model 86.0% 85.0%
Gary Crockett
Market Model 2.0% 9.0%
Republican party
Market Model 96.0% 95.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.0% 5.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 94.5% 92.8%
Republican party
Market Model 10.0% 7.2%
Democratic
Market Model 15.0% 8.9%
Republican
Market Model 88.0% 91.1%
Republican party
Market Model 26.0% 26.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 80.0% 73.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 6.7% 5.4%
Republican party
Market Model 97.9% 94.6%
Republican party
Market Model 93.0% 96.9%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.2% 3.1%
Republican party
Market Model 42.0% 44.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 53.0% 55.8%
Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 74.0% 71.2%
Republicans, 29+ pts
Market Model 73.0% 70.2%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 7.3% 5.7%
Republicans, 30+ pts
Market Model 31.0% 27.0%
Republicans, 12+ pts
Market Model 79.0% 79.2%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 16.0% 16.3%
Democrats, 1+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 72.3%
Republican party
Market Model 80.0% 81.4%
Seth Bodnar
Market Model 16.0% 14.2%
Republicans, 10+ pts
Market Model 9.0% 5.2%
Republicans, 7+ pts
Market Model 8.9% 5.2%
Republicans, 11+ pts
Market Model 21.0% 28.2%
Republicans, 14+ pts
Market Model 8.4% 18.6%
Democrats, 58+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Democrats, 52+ pts
Market Model 35.0% 28.0%
Jon Husted
Market Model 48.0% 51.5%
Sherrod Brown
Market Model 53.0% 48.5%
Republican party
Market Model 92.7% 96.5%
Democratic party
Market Model 7.7% 3.5%
Democrats, 9+ pts
Market Model 7.9% 5.0%
Democrats, 6+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 8.0%
Democrats, 51+ pts
Market Model 46.0% 30.0%
Democrats, 39+ pts
Market Model 98.6% 98.0%
Democrats, 25+ pts
Market Model 14.0% 14.3%
Democrats, 4+ pts
Market Model 90.5% 89.1%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 57.9%
Democrats, 14+ pts
Market Model 7.9% 4.6%
Republicans, 23+ pts
Market Model 30.0% 32.7%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 80.0% 80.2%
Democrats, 22+ pts
Market Model 92.2% 86.2%
Democrats, 31+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 38.6%
Democrats, 13+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 39.6%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 65.0% 50.3%
Republicans, 16+ pts
Market Model 55.0% 55.0%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 68.0% 69.5%
Steve Hilton, 3+ pts
Market Model 19.0% 11.1%
Steve Hilton, 5+ pts
Market Model 13.0% 7.5%
Republicans, 23+ pts
Market Model 59.0% 44.2%
Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 56.0% 41.4%
Democrats, 8+ pts
Market Model 8.4% 8.6%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 18.0% 17.9%
Democratic party
Market Model 33.0% 27.3%
Republican party
Market Model 60.0% 72.7%
Democratic party
Market Model 95.0% 94.0%
Republican party
Market Model 6.1% 6.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 12.0% 9.2%
Republican party
Market Model 86.0% 90.8%
Republican party
Market Model 77.0% 79.7%
Democratic party
Market Model 23.0% 20.3%
Republican party
Market Model 68.0% 65.9%
Dan Osborn
Market Model 32.0% 32.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 67.0% 71.9%
Republican party
Market Model 36.0% 28.1%
Republican party
Market Model 68.0% 71.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 33.0% 28.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 77.0% 80.3%
Republican party
Market Model 26.0% 19.7%
Republican party
Market Model 7.0% 4.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 95.0% 95.6%
Democratic party
Market Model 92.1% 95.1%
Republican party
Market Model 11.0% 4.9%
Republican party
Market Model 10.0% 7.5%
Democratic party
Market Model 89.0% 92.5%
Republican party
Market Model 61.0% 67.3%
Democratic party
Market Model 40.0% 32.7%
Republican party
Market Model 25.0% 31.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 74.0% 68.2%
Roy Cooper
Market Model 85.0% 87.5%
Michael Whatley
Market Model 17.0% 12.5%
Democratic party
Market Model 14.0% 6.3%
Republican party
Market Model 90.1% 93.7%
Democratic party
Market Model 58.0% 66.1%
Republican party
Market Model 41.0% 33.9%
Vivek Ramaswamy
Market Model 46.0% 43.8%
Amy Acton
Market Model 54.0% 56.2%
Republican party
Market Model 18.0% 11.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 83.0% 88.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 20.0% 19.6%
Republican party
Market Model 82.0% 80.4%
0
Market Model 12.0% 84.0%
Above 2
Market Model 3.0% 9.9%
Democrats, 56+ pts
Market Model 89.0% 89.0%
Democrats, 80+ pts
Market Model 13.0% 2.0%
Democrats, 37+ pts
Market Model 83.0% 80.8%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 92.1% 90.9%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 61.0% 58.1%
Democrats, 13+ pts
Market Model 31.0% 30.2%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 10.4%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 22.0% 21.9%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 16.0% 8.0%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 9.8% 4.9%
Yes
Market Model 52.0% 56.0%
Republican party
Market Model 32.0% 40.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 65.0% 59.6%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 92.6% 95.0%
Democrats, 58+ pts
Market Model 8.6% 7.0%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Market Model 34.0% 21.3%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 66.0% 61.8%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 89.0% 81.1%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 5.0%
Republican party
Market Model 84.0% 87.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 17.0% 12.2%
Kamala Harris
Market Model 63.0% 40.5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 49.0% 26.0%
Democrats, 37+ pts
Market Model 78.0% 75.4%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 81.0% 78.6%
Democrats, 35+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 2.0%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 10.0%
Republicans, 22+ pts
Market Model 48.0% 35.9%
Republicans, 28+ pts
Market Model 38.0% 25.0%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 43.0% 41.1%
Democrats, 3+ pts
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Democrats, 6+ pts
Market Model 14.0% 10.8%
Yes
Market Model 56.0% 44.1%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 57.9%
Republicans, 6+ pts
Market Model 62.0% 43.2%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 44.0% 24.6%
Republicans, 2+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 32.2%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 87.0% 88.0%
Republicans, 15+ pts
Market Model 73.0% 74.9%
Democrats, 9+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 6.4%
Democrats, 3+ pts
Market Model 35.0% 21.2%
Democrats, 18+ pts
Market Model 88.0% 91.4%
Democrats, 21+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 81.4%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 88.0% 100.0%
Republicans, 37+ pts
Market Model 9.9% 0.0%
Above 249
Market Model 10.0% 11.7%
Below 210
Market Model 15.0% 5.4%
Yes
Market Model 3.5% 1.5%
Christian Menefee
Market Model 94.3% 95.6%
Al Green
Market Model 6.0% 4.4%
Yes
Market Model 9.2% 6.9%
Democratic party
Market Model 42.0% 34.0%
Republican party
Market Model 56.0% 66.0%
Zach Wahls
Market Model 15.0% 15.9%
Ashley Hinson
Market Model 58.0% 77.0%
Diego Morales
Market Model 81.0% 47.9%
David Shelton
Market Model 91.0% 51.7%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 22.0%
Scott Wiener
Market Model 94.3% 91.9%
Saikat Chakrabarti
Market Model 79.0% 69.7%
Colin Allred
Market Model 79.0% 82.5%
Julie Johnson
Market Model 23.0% 17.5%
Jeremy Moss
Market Model 93.0% 88.5%
Dave Woodward
Market Model 0.6% 0.5%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 25.0% 26.6%
J.D. Vance
Market Model 7.1% 8.6%
Haley Stevens
Market Model 13.0% 10.0%
Abdul El-Sayed
Market Model 45.0% 35.1%
Above 52
Market Model 22.0% 18.9%
52
Market Model 12.0% 11.1%
Virginia
Market Model 59.0% 39.7%
California
Market Model 98.4% 98.7%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 64.0% 49.3%
Before Nov 3, 2026
Market Model 0.0% 65.3%
Jon Bonck
Market Model 98.6% 97.8%
Shelly DeZevallos
Market Model 4.5% 2.2%
Cori Bush
Market Model 37.0% 31.2%
Wesley Bell
Market Model 68.0% 68.8%
Robert White
Market Model 59.0% 44.3%
Brooke Pinto
Market Model 27.0% 23.4%
10
Market Model 51.0% 38.2%
7
Market Model 17.0% 17.1%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 49.0%
Beth Davidson
Market Model 43.0% 28.8%
Cait Conley
Market Model 50.0% 33.0%
Alexi Giannoulias
Market Model 56.0% 48.1%
Maria Pappas
Market Model 3.1% 1.0%
Stefany Shaheen
Market Model 61.0% 62.8%
Maura Sullivan
Market Model 35.0% 28.1%
Ryan Busse
Market Model 56.0% 53.6%
Sam Forstag
Market Model 26.0% 33.5%
Antonio Reynoso
Market Model 24.0% 26.3%
Claire Valdez
Market Model 74.0% 66.2%
Jerri Green
Market Model 86.0% 76.7%
Adam Kurtz
Market Model 11.0% 11.3%
Below 53
Market Model 81.0% 70.1%
53
Market Model 11.0% 10.8%
Aisha Wahab
Market Model 72.0% 60.2%
Rakhi Israni Singh
Market Model 21.0% 20.1%
Chi Ossé
Market Model 7.2% 5.2%
Hakeem Jeffries
Market Model 97.5% 88.0%
Republican party
Market Model 31.0% 18.5%
Democratic party
Market Model 68.0% 81.5%
Katherine Clark
Market Model 88.0% 99.8%
Jonathan Paz
Market Model 12.0% 0.1%
Governor
Market Model 76.0% 65.0%
Lieutenant Governor
Market Model 84.0% 78.9%
Yes
Market Model 44.0% 34.5%
Matthew McConaughey
Market Model 10.0% 4.1%
Casey DeSantis
Market Model 19.0% 9.4%
Yes
Market Model 48.0% 36.4%
Fiona Ma
Market Model 70.0% 50.9%
Josh Fryday
Market Model 23.0% 30.6%
5 or more
Market Model 22.0% 22.9%
Exactly 4
Market Model 41.0% 38.8%
Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass
Market Model 62.0% 53.5%
Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt
Market Model 17.0% 16.5%
Darializa Avila Chevalier
Market Model 47.0% 21.2%
Adriano Espaillat
Market Model 56.0% 55.1%
Amish Shah
Market Model 72.0% 69.3%
Marlene Galán-Woods
Market Model 2.0% 2.1%
Ben McAdams
Market Model 76.0% 85.8%
Nate Blouin
Market Model 24.0% 8.3%
Saikat Chakrabarti
Market Model 37.0% 30.9%
Scott Wiener
Market Model 62.0% 60.0%
Michael Blake
Market Model 15.0% 3.1%
Ritchie Torres
Market Model 85.0% 90.4%
Mary Peltola
Market Model 59.0% 59.6%
Dan Sullivan
Market Model 45.0% 37.8%
Republicans win
Market Model 15.0% 11.7%
Democrats, 0 to 2%
Market Model 5.9% 3.9%
Georgia
Market Model 7.8% 13.4%
Texas
Market Model 19.0% 15.5%
Matt Little
Market Model 69.0% 76.4%
Matt Klein
Market Model 12.0% 14.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 39.0% 45.0%
Republican party
Market Model 56.0% 55.0%
Bernadette Wilson
Market Model 22.0% 22.9%
Tom Begich
Market Model 37.0% 31.2%
Yes
Market Model 92.9% 95.5%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 47.0%
Susan Mendoza
Market Model 16.0% 12.4%
Alexi Giannoulias
Market Model 63.0% 44.7%
Marsha Blackburn
Market Model 61.0% 100.0%
John Rose
Market Model 11.0% 100.0%
Below 193
Market Model 28.0% 31.1%
223-227
Market Model 4.3% 7.2%
Anthony D’Esposito
Market Model 0.4% 20.0%
Don Clavin
Market Model 3.6% 1.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 8.0% 7.9%
Gretchen Whitmer
Market Model 9.2% 10.0%
R-House, R-Senate
Market Model 21.0% 17.2%
D-House, R-Senate
Market Model 34.0% 37.5%
Spencer Pratt
Market Model 25.0% 18.3%
Karen Bass
Market Model 47.0% 27.8%
Nancy Lacore
Market Model 81.0% 69.2%
Mac Deford
Market Model 20.0% 24.7%
Republican party
Market Model 47.0% 41.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 53.0% 58.6%
Renada Collins
Market Model 4.0% 2.3%
Troy Carter
Market Model 95.2% 97.7%
Republican party
Market Model 94.9% 97.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.0% 2.2%
Before 2030
Market Model 12.0% 11.6%
Before 2032
Market Model 13.0% 11.6%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 29.0% 28.8%
Tucker Carlson
Market Model 6.0% 5.7%
Cornyn beats Talarico
Market Model 39.0% 34.2%
Talarico beats Paxton
Market Model 25.0% 21.9%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 31.8%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 18.0% 19.5%
Gavin Newsom
Market Model 13.0% 11.3%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine Senate winner? (Party) Top outcome: Republican party | 41.0% | 55.7% | High | $2,945,297.71 | Refresh |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Top outcome: Gavin Newsom | 21.0% | 30.1% | High | $144,450,124.14 | Refresh |
| California Governor winner? (Party) Top outcome: Republican party | 9.6% | 7.1% | High | $1,058,901.34 | Refresh |
| Texas Senate winner? Top outcome: Ken Paxton | 59.0% | 60.6% | High | $4,793,287.47 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the U.S. House? Top outcome: Republican Party | 22.0% | 17.0% | High | $15,048,000.12 | Refresh |
| California Governor winner? Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 9.9% | 5.1% | High | $46,920,489.02 | Refresh |
| California Governor primary: 1st place Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 0.8% | 0.0% | High | $5,761,175.96 | Refresh |
| SC-01 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Mark Smith | 62.0% | 60.9% | High | $131,782.28 | Refresh |
| Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner Top outcome: Karen Bass | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | $3,696,241.4 | Refresh |
| California Governor primary advancers? (Party) Top outcome: 1 Democrat and 1 Republican | 87.0% | 84.8% | Med | $1,518,436.66 | Refresh |
| Who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election? Top outcome: Spencer Pratt | 36.0% | 52.5% | Med | $2,219,193.56 | Refresh |
| Blue wave in 2026? Yes refers to: Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate? | 68.0% | 62.9% | Med | $235,279.17 | Refresh |
| Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory Top outcome: Ken Paxton, 20%+ | 99.8% | 99.9% | High | $3,541,667.41 | Refresh |
| New Hampshire Governor winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 76.0% | 79.1% | High | $9,062.76 | Refresh |
| Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Elaine Pelino | 37.0% | 32.3% | High | $7,079.72 | Refresh |
| CA-40 primary advancers? Top outcome: Esther Kim Varet | 39.0% | 26.0% | Med | $50,178.09 | Refresh |
| Who will advance from the CA-22 primary? Top outcome: Randy Villegas | 44.0% | 31.0% | Med | $38,057.63 | Refresh |
| ND-AL Republican nominee? Top outcome: Alex Balazs | 5.0% | 3.9% | High | $2,564.33 | Refresh |
| Florida Senate winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 18.0% | 13.6% | High | $71,840.41 | Refresh |
| New York Attorney General winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 94.0% | 96.8% | High | $16,096 | Refresh |
| Who will win the Attorney General race in Nebraska? Top outcome: Republican party | 95.2% | 95.6% | High | $412.7 | Refresh |
| Vermont Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Republican party | 7.0% | 3.1% | High | $6,374 | Refresh |
| Will Democrats hold a midterm convention? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026 | 1.0% | 0.6% | Med | $12,975.76 | Refresh |
| Louisiana Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jamie Davis | 86.0% | 85.0% | High | $17,160.22 | Refresh |
| Who will win the Attorney General race in Idaho? Top outcome: Republican party | 96.0% | 95.0% | High | $633 | Refresh |
| Connecticut Attorney General winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 94.5% | 92.8% | High | $570 | Refresh |
| Nebraska Governor winner? Top outcome: Democratic | 15.0% | 8.9% | High | $13,415.85 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Republican party | 26.0% | 26.2% | High | $5,485.63 | Refresh |
| Alabama Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 6.7% | 5.4% | High | $243 | Refresh |
| Idaho Governor winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 93.0% | 96.9% | High | $2,119.85 | Refresh |
| Georgia Governor winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 42.0% | 44.2% | High | $64,330.65 | Refresh |
| Illinois's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 26+ pts | 74.0% | 71.2% | High | $1,220 | Refresh |
| Florida's 13th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 25.0% | 19.2% | High | $4,166 | Refresh |
| Iowa's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 30+ pts | 31.0% | 27.0% | High | $2,646 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 10+ pts | 16.0% | 16.3% | High | $5,961 | Refresh |
| Montana Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 80.0% | 81.4% | High | $155,399.22 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 10+ pts | 9.0% | 5.2% | High | $17,513.68 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 11+ pts | 21.0% | 28.2% | High | $1,772 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 58+ pts | 15.0% | 15.0% | High | $2,392 | Refresh |
| Ohio Senate winner? Top outcome: Jon Husted | 48.0% | 51.5% | High | $297,560.41 | Refresh |
| IN-04 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 92.7% | 96.5% | High | $3,080 | Refresh |
| Florida's 27th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 9+ pts | 7.9% | 5.0% | High | $2,523 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 51+ pts | 46.0% | 30.0% | High | $11,244 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 25+ pts | 14.0% | 14.3% | Med | $11,452.14 | Refresh |
| Iowa's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 75.0% | 57.9% | Med | $5,041 | Refresh |
| Kansas's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 23+ pts | 30.0% | 32.7% | High | $3,207.72 | Refresh |
| Connecticut's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 22+ pts | 92.2% | 86.2% | High | $33,164.12 | Refresh |
| Minnesota's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 13+ pts | 54.0% | 39.6% | High | $21,737.9 | Refresh |
| Georgia's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 16+ pts | 55.0% | 55.0% | High | $8,673.02 | Refresh |
| California Governor Primary margin of victory Top outcome: Steve Hilton, 3+ pts | 19.0% | 11.1% | High | $12,712.67 | Refresh |
| Georgia's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 23+ pts | 59.0% | 44.2% | High | $12,320 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 5th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 8+ pts | 8.4% | 8.6% | High | $10,018 | Refresh |
| Ohio Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 33.0% | 27.3% | High | $13,233.16 | Refresh |
| Oregon Senate winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 95.0% | 94.0% | High | $2,465.17 | Refresh |
| Texas Governor winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 12.0% | 9.2% | High | $94,301.42 | Refresh |
| Florida Governor winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 77.0% | 79.7% | High | $87,713.55 | Refresh |
| Nebraska Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 68.0% | 65.9% | High | $253,333.28 | Refresh |
| Iowa Governor winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 67.0% | 71.9% | High | $128,866.65 | Refresh |
| Kansas Governor winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 68.0% | 71.2% | High | $10,975.74 | Refresh |
| Arizona Governor winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 77.0% | 80.3% | High | $320,352.08 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania Governor winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 7.0% | 4.4% | High | $28,720.59 | Refresh |
| New Mexico Governor winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 92.1% | 95.1% | High | $11,349.1 | Refresh |
| New York Governor winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 10.0% | 7.5% | High | $276,381.38 | Refresh |
| Iowa Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 61.0% | 67.3% | High | $199,989.22 | Refresh |
| Michigan Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 25.0% | 31.8% | High | $129,858.03 | Refresh |
| North Carolina Senate winner? Top outcome: Roy Cooper | 85.0% | 87.5% | High | $237,710.2 | Refresh |
| Mississippi Senate winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 14.0% | 6.3% | High | $34,699.68 | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate winner? (Party) Top outcome: Democratic party | 58.0% | 66.1% | High | $256,169.44 | Refresh |
| Ohio Governor winner? Top outcome: Vivek Ramaswamy | 46.0% | 43.8% | High | $284,126.13 | Refresh |
| Georgia Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 18.0% | 11.8% | High | $243,903.81 | Refresh |
| South Carolina Senate winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 20.0% | 19.6% | High | $91,447.6 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama? Top outcome: 0 | 12.0% | 84.0% | High | $51 | Refresh |
| Illinois's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 56+ pts | 89.0% | 89.0% | High | $1,076 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 37+ pts | 83.0% | 80.8% | High | $5,850 | Refresh |
| New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 10+ pts | 61.0% | 58.1% | Med | $17,481.86 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 10.0% | 10.4% | High | $917 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 5+ pts | 16.0% | 8.0% | High | $917 | Refresh |
| 2026 Republican Senate primaries combo Yes refers to: Yes | 52.0% | 56.0% | Med | $26,777.09 | Refresh |
| LA-06 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 32.0% | 40.4% | High | $28,596.21 | Refresh |
| Indiana's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 34+ pts | 92.6% | 95.0% | Med | $1,046 | Refresh |
| Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Top outcome: Marjorie Taylor Greene | 34.0% | 21.3% | Med | $266,967.39 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 8th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 89.0% | 81.1% | High | $1,186 | Refresh |
| IN-05 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 84.0% | 87.8% | High | $3,686 | Refresh |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? Top outcome: Kamala Harris | 63.0% | 40.5% | Med | $519,409.57 | Refresh |
| Georgia's 13th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 37+ pts | 78.0% | 75.4% | High | $1,858 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 11th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 35+ pts | 10.0% | 2.0% | High | $1,211 | Refresh |
| Florida's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 22+ pts | 48.0% | 35.9% | High | $4,956 | Refresh |
| Maine's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 20.0% | 20.1% | High | $2,370 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 3+ pts | 25.0% | 19.2% | High | $3,131 | Refresh |
| Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? Yes refers to: Yes | 56.0% | 44.1% | Med | $27,244.66 | Refresh |
| Kentucky's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 3+ pts | 75.0% | 57.9% | High | $1,023 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 5+ pts | 44.0% | 24.6% | High | $2,534 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 9th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 87.0% | 88.0% | High | $10,439.97 | Refresh |
| Montana's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 9+ pts | 11.0% | 6.4% | Med | $1,891 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 18+ pts | 88.0% | 91.4% | High | $4,636.27 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 5th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 13+ pts | 88.0% | 100.0% | High | $1,380 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Above 249 | 10.0% | 11.7% | High | $376,436.14 | Refresh |
| Will Kamala Harris run for California Governor? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 3.5% | 1.5% | Med | $40,852.69 | Refresh |
| TX-18 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Christian Menefee | 94.3% | 95.6% | High | $84,605.89 | Refresh |
| Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2029 | 9.2% | 6.9% | Med | $214,682.71 | Refresh |
| FL-09 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 42.0% | 34.0% | High | $20,997.02 | Refresh |
| Iowa Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Zach Wahls | 15.0% | 15.9% | High | $2,821.59 | Refresh |
| Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee? Top outcome: Diego Morales | 81.0% | 47.9% | High | $25,238.32 | Refresh |
| 2026 Democratic Senate primaries combo Yes refers to: Yes | 17.0% | 22.0% | Med | $121,044.14 | Refresh |
| Who will advance from the CA-11 primary? Top outcome: Scott Wiener | 94.3% | 91.9% | Med | $100,610.18 | Refresh |
| TX-33 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Colin Allred | 79.0% | 82.5% | High | $248,957.99 | Refresh |
| MI-11 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jeremy Moss | 93.0% | 88.5% | High | $7,762.72 | Refresh |
| 2028 Republican VP nominee Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 25.0% | 26.6% | High | $991,944.14 | Refresh |
| Michigan Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Haley Stevens | 13.0% | 10.0% | High | $8,335.19 | Refresh |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Above 52 | 22.0% | 18.9% | High | $796,806.88 | Refresh |
| Which states will redistrict before the midterms? Top outcome: Virginia | 59.0% | 39.7% | Med | $1,401,305.31 | Refresh |
| Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 64.0% | 49.3% | High | $13,097.8 | Refresh |
| TX-38 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Jon Bonck | 98.6% | 97.8% | High | $37,086.4 | Refresh |
| MO-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Cori Bush | 37.0% | 31.2% | High | $13,250.89 | Refresh |
| DC Democratic House delegate nominee? Top outcome: Robert White | 59.0% | 44.3% | High | $6,960.07 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? Top outcome: 10 | 51.0% | 38.2% | High | $57,720.08 | Refresh |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 57.0% | 49.0% | Med | $20,595.9 | Refresh |
| NY-17 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Beth Davidson | 43.0% | 28.8% | High | $17,332.8 | Refresh |
| Chicago mayoral election winner? (2027) Top outcome: Alexi Giannoulias | 56.0% | 48.1% | Med | $36,120.94 | Refresh |
| NH-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Stefany Shaheen | 61.0% | 62.8% | High | $5,698.9 | Refresh |
| MT-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Busse | 56.0% | 53.6% | High | $17,019.27 | Refresh |
| NY-07 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Antonio Reynoso | 24.0% | 26.3% | High | $57,706.19 | Refresh |
| Tennessee Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Jerri Green | 86.0% | 76.7% | High | $8,537.6 | Refresh |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Top outcome: Below 53 | 81.0% | 70.1% | Med | $12,264.7 | Refresh |
| CA-14 special election winner Top outcome: Aisha Wahab | 72.0% | 60.2% | High | $11,476.35 | Refresh |
| NY-08 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Chi Ossé | 7.2% | 5.2% | High | $33,297.61 | Refresh |
| Indiana Secretary of State winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 31.0% | 18.5% | High | $13,768.08 | Refresh |
| MA-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Katherine Clark | 88.0% | 99.8% | High | $1,208.69 | Refresh |
| Georgia: Which elections will be won outright? Top outcome: Governor | 76.0% | 65.0% | Med | $32,033.53 | Refresh |
| 44.0% | 34.5% | Med | $3,670.95 | Refresh | |
| Who will run for public office in 2026? Top outcome: Matthew McConaughey | 10.0% | 4.1% | Med | $99,234.44 | Refresh |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes refers to: Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate? | 48.0% | 36.4% | Med | $176,557 | Refresh |
| California Lieutenant Governor winner? Top outcome: Fiona Ma | 70.0% | 50.9% | High | $9,357.29 | Refresh |
| How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026? Top outcome: 5 or more | 22.0% | 22.9% | High | $40,211.14 | Refresh |
| Los Angeles mayor matchup Top outcome: Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass | 62.0% | 53.5% | Med | $9,344.18 | Refresh |
| NY-13 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Darializa Avila Chevalier | 47.0% | 21.2% | High | $13,494.35 | Refresh |
| AZ-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Amish Shah | 72.0% | 69.3% | High | $19,661.65 | Refresh |
| UT-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ben McAdams | 76.0% | 85.8% | High | $19,782.44 | Refresh |
| CA-11 House winner? (Person) Top outcome: Saikat Chakrabarti | 37.0% | 30.9% | High | $6,866.94 | Refresh |
| NY-15 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Michael Blake | 15.0% | 3.1% | Med | $16,176.98 | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 59.0% | 59.6% | High | $77,120.57 | Refresh |
| 2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Top outcome: Republicans win | 15.0% | 11.7% | Med | $116,454.39 | Refresh |
| Closest Senate race in 2026? Top outcome: Georgia | 7.8% | 13.4% | High | $75,489.42 | Refresh |
| MN-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Matt Little | 69.0% | 76.4% | High | $22,258.5 | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor winner? (Party) Top outcome: Democratic party | 39.0% | 45.0% | High | $27,096.11 | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor winner? (Person) Top outcome: Bernadette Wilson | 22.0% | 22.9% | High | $91,906.7 | Refresh |
| Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot? Yes refers to: Yes | 92.9% | 95.5% | Med | $63,502.05 | Refresh |
| Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 43.0% | 47.0% | Med | $365,684.95 | Refresh |
| Who will win the Chicago mayoral election? Top outcome: Susan Mendoza | 16.0% | 12.4% | High | $24,001.03 | Refresh |
| Who will Trump endorse in the 2026 primaries? Top outcome: Marsha Blackburn | 61.0% | 100.0% | High | $246,311.04 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Below 193 | 28.0% | 31.1% | High | $881,950.08 | Refresh |
| NY-04 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Anthony D’Esposito | 0.4% | 20.0% | High | $36,238.63 | Refresh |
| 2028 Democratic VP nominee Top outcome: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8.0% | 7.9% | High | $1,317,230.84 | Refresh |
| 2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Top outcome: R-House, R-Senate | 21.0% | 17.2% | Med | $3,015,949.56 | Refresh |
| Los Angeles Mayor winner? Top outcome: Spencer Pratt | 25.0% | 18.3% | High | $1,269,442.11 | Refresh |
| SC-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Nancy Lacore | 81.0% | 69.2% | High | $13,788 | Refresh |
| Arizona State House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 47.0% | 41.4% | High | $28.44 | Refresh |
| LA-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Renada Collins | 4.0% | 2.3% | High | $118 | Refresh |
| TN-08 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 94.9% | 97.8% | High | $4,750 | Refresh |
| Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes? Top outcome: Before 2030 | 12.0% | 11.6% | Med | $1,422 | Refresh |
| 2028 Republican nominee for President? Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 29.0% | 28.8% | High | $25,693,763 | Refresh |
| Texas Senate: Exact outcome Top outcome: Cornyn beats Talarico | 39.0% | 34.2% | Med | $1,158 | Refresh |
| Democratic Senate primaries: progressives sweep? Yes refers to: Yes | 43.0% | 31.8% | Med | $32,029 | Refresh |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 18.0% | 19.5% | High | $18,744,212 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (20)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Above 3.0M
Market Model 5.1% 20.1%
Above 2.6M
Market Model 3.1% 20.1%
John Cavanaugh
Market Model 60.0% 60.5%
Denise Powell
Market Model 41.0% 38.2%
Senate Republican primary
Market Model 25.0% 13.7%
Governor Republican primary
Market Model 5.0% 1.8%
Jeff Kessler
Market Model 87.0% 83.6%
Rachel Fetty Anderson
Market Model 2.0% 1.5%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Bob Trammell
Market Model 6.3% 18.0%
Tanya Miller
Market Model 99.0% 82.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Ras Baraka
Market Model 96.5% 94.3%
Douglas R. Davis
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
J.D. Ford
Market Model 92.2% 87.2%
Jackson Franklin
Market Model 8.3% 8.2%
Mejia, 24% and above
Market Model 0.3% 1.3%
Mejia, 16-20%
Market Model 0.5% 3.3%
Ryan Crosswell
Market Model 27.0% 32.7%
Bob Brooks
Market Model 71.0% 58.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Steve Hilton
Market Model 59.0% 55.6%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 11.0% 12.8%
Chris Rabb
Market Model 38.0% 39.2%
Sharif Street
Market Model 63.0% 40.3%
Derek Merrin
Market Model 86.0% 88.0%
Madison Sheahan
Market Model 0.3% 0.3%
Thomas Massie
Market Model 44.0% 71.9%
Ed Gallrein
Market Model 58.0% 27.1%
Yes, 0-3%
Market Model 0.7% 1.6%
No, 0-3%
Market Model 0.5% 0.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $6,658,053.27 | ||
| — | — | Med | $17,635.29 | ||
| Voter turnout for the Virginia redistricting referendum? Top outcome: Above 3.0M | 5.1% | 20.1% | High | $764,655.25 | |
| NE-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: John Cavanaugh | 60.0% | 60.5% | High | $49,295.8 | |
| Which Georgia primary elections will have a first-round winner? Top outcome: Senate Republican primary | 25.0% | 13.7% | Med | $24,435.2 | |
| West Virginia Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jeff Kessler | 87.0% | 83.6% | High | $19,233.31 | |
| — | — | Med | $180,295.07 | ||
| — | — | Low | $0 | ||
| Georgia Democratic Attorney General nominee? Top outcome: Bob Trammell | 6.3% | 18.0% | High | $12,631 | |
| — | — | Med | $10,207.72 | ||
| Newark Mayor winner? Top outcome: Ras Baraka | 96.5% | 94.3% | High | $6,047 | |
| IN-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: J.D. Ford | 92.2% | 87.2% | Med | $17,561.92 | |
| 2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory? Top outcome: Mejia, 24% and above | 0.3% | 1.3% | High | $658,630.83 | |
| PA-07 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Crosswell | 27.0% | 32.7% | High | $32,456.39 | |
| — | — | High | $5,389.42 | ||
| Who will lead the next qualifying poll in the California governor's race? Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 59.0% | 55.6% | High | $1,523.63 | |
| PA-03 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Chris Rabb | 38.0% | 39.2% | High | $53,906.86 | |
| OH-09 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Derek Merrin | 86.0% | 88.0% | High | $34,701.67 | |
| KY-04 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Thomas Massie | 44.0% | 71.9% | Med | $1,242,329.52 | |
| Virginia redistricting referendum margin of victory? Top outcome: Yes, 0-3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | Med | $6,428,408.03 |
