At least 76%
Market Model 64.0% 61.1%
At least 70%
Market Model 94.0% 91.9%
US Elections Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (101)
CA-04 House winner? Kalshi
Mike Thompson
Market Model 66.0% 70.8%
Eric Jones
Market Model 32.0% 29.2%
Steve Hilton
Market Model 4.4% 3.8%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 95.8% 96.2%
Republican Party
Market Model 53.0% 51.8%
Democratic Party
Market Model 48.0% 48.2%
R-House, R-Senate
Market Model 17.0% 20.4%
D-House, D-Senate
Market Model 48.0% 42.0%
Mike Rogers
Market Model 36.0% 36.7%
Abdul El-Sayed
Market Model 64.0% 62.6%
John Kulewicz
Market Model 17.0% 14.6%
Keith Faber
Market Model 83.0% 85.4%
Republicans, 20+ pts
Market Model 70.0% 66.0%
Republicans, 14+ pts
Market Model 79.0% 73.5%
Virginia Question 1
Market Model 90.0% 86.8%
Missouri Amendment 3
Market Model 95.0% 93.4%
LA-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Lauren Jewett
Market Model 16.0% 98.9%
Jim Long
Market Model 0.3% 1.1%
Max Engling
Market Model 29.0% 23.4%
Beau Bayh
Market Model 95.0% 76.6%
MO-02 House winner? Kalshi
Ann Wagner
Market Model 79.0% 83.0%
Fred Wellman
Market Model 21.0% 17.0%
Los Angeles Mayor winner? Kalshi
Nithya Raman
Market Model 38.0% 34.1%
Karen Bass
Market Model 62.0% 65.9%
Gavin Newsom
Market Model 17.0% 17.5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 15.0% 14.5%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 16.0% 18.9%
Jon Ossoff
Market Model 10.0% 10.9%
Yes
Market Model 32.0% 39.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 61.0% 52.0%
Kamala Harris
Market Model 76.0% 68.6%
2028 Republican VP nominee Kalshi
Marco Rubio
Market Model 28.0% 37.2%
J.D. Vance
Market Model 6.7% 4.8%
2028 Democratic VP nominee Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 8.5% 10.1%
Gretchen Whitmer
Market Model 9.7% 9.7%
Virginia
Market Model 7.0% 1.7%
California
Market Model 97.9% 98.3%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 26.0% 25.2%
Tucker Carlson
Market Model 3.1% 3.6%
Republican Party
Market Model 17.0% 14.9%
Democratic Party
Market Model 83.0% 85.1%
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 68.0% 62.9%
Democratic party
Market Model 94.0% 96.8%
Republican party
Market Model 7.3% 3.2%
Republican party
Market Model 95.2% 95.6%
Democratic party
Market Model 7.0% 4.4%
Republican party
Market Model 7.0% 3.1%
Democratic party
Market Model 95.9% 96.9%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Republican party
Market Model 96.0% 95.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.0% 5.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 94.5% 92.8%
Republican party
Market Model 10.0% 7.2%
Republican party
Market Model 26.0% 26.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 80.0% 73.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 6.7% 5.4%
Republican party
Market Model 97.9% 94.6%
Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 74.0% 71.2%
Republicans, 29+ pts
Market Model 73.0% 70.2%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 7.3% 5.7%
Republicans, 30+ pts
Market Model 31.0% 27.0%
Republicans, 12+ pts
Market Model 79.0% 79.2%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 16.0% 16.3%
Democrats, 1+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 72.3%
Republicans, 10+ pts
Market Model 9.0% 5.2%
Republicans, 7+ pts
Market Model 8.9% 5.2%
Republicans, 11+ pts
Market Model 21.0% 28.2%
Republicans, 14+ pts
Market Model 8.4% 18.6%
Democrats, 58+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Democrats, 52+ pts
Market Model 35.0% 28.0%
IN-04 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 92.7% 96.5%
Democratic party
Market Model 7.7% 3.5%
Democrats, 9+ pts
Market Model 7.9% 5.0%
Democrats, 6+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 8.0%
Democrats, 51+ pts
Market Model 46.0% 30.0%
Democrats, 39+ pts
Market Model 98.6% 98.0%
Democrats, 25+ pts
Market Model 14.0% 14.3%
Democrats, 4+ pts
Market Model 90.5% 89.1%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 57.9%
Democrats, 14+ pts
Market Model 7.9% 4.6%
Republicans, 23+ pts
Market Model 30.0% 32.7%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 80.0% 80.2%
Democrats, 22+ pts
Market Model 92.2% 86.2%
Democrats, 31+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 38.6%
Democrats, 13+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 39.6%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 65.0% 50.3%
Republicans, 16+ pts
Market Model 55.0% 55.0%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 68.0% 69.5%
Republicans, 23+ pts
Market Model 59.0% 44.2%
Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 56.0% 41.4%
Democrats, 8+ pts
Market Model 8.4% 8.6%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 18.0% 17.9%
Ohio Senate winner? (2028) Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 33.0% 27.3%
Republican party
Market Model 60.0% 72.7%
Democratic party
Market Model 58.0% 66.1%
Republican party
Market Model 41.0% 33.9%
0
Market Model 12.0% 84.0%
Above 2
Market Model 3.0% 9.9%
Democrats, 56+ pts
Market Model 89.0% 89.0%
Democrats, 80+ pts
Market Model 13.0% 2.0%
Democrats, 37+ pts
Market Model 83.0% 80.8%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 92.1% 90.9%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 61.0% 58.1%
Democrats, 13+ pts
Market Model 31.0% 30.2%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 10.4%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 22.0% 21.9%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 16.0% 8.0%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 9.8% 4.9%
LA-06 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 32.0% 40.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 65.0% 59.6%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 92.6% 95.0%
Democrats, 58+ pts
Market Model 8.6% 7.0%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Market Model 34.0% 21.3%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 66.0% 61.8%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 89.0% 81.1%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 5.0%
IN-05 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 84.0% 87.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 17.0% 12.2%
Democrats, 37+ pts
Market Model 78.0% 75.4%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 81.0% 78.6%
Democrats, 35+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 2.0%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 10.0%
Republicans, 22+ pts
Market Model 48.0% 35.9%
Republicans, 28+ pts
Market Model 38.0% 25.0%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 43.0% 41.1%
Democrats, 3+ pts
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Democrats, 6+ pts
Market Model 14.0% 10.8%
Yes
Market Model 56.0% 44.1%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 57.9%
Republicans, 6+ pts
Market Model 62.0% 43.2%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 44.0% 24.6%
Republicans, 2+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 32.2%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 87.0% 88.0%
Republicans, 15+ pts
Market Model 73.0% 74.9%
Democrats, 9+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 6.4%
Democrats, 3+ pts
Market Model 35.0% 21.2%
Democrats, 18+ pts
Market Model 88.0% 91.4%
Democrats, 21+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 81.4%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 88.0% 100.0%
Republicans, 37+ pts
Market Model 9.9% 0.0%
Yes
Market Model 3.5% 1.5%
Yes
Market Model 9.2% 6.9%
FL-09 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 42.0% 34.0%
Republican party
Market Model 56.0% 66.0%
Iowa Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi
Zach Wahls
Market Model 15.0% 15.9%
Ashley Hinson
Market Model 58.0% 77.0%
10
Market Model 51.0% 38.2%
7
Market Model 17.0% 17.1%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 49.0%
Alexi Giannoulias
Market Model 56.0% 48.1%
Maria Pappas
Market Model 3.1% 1.0%
Below 53
Market Model 81.0% 70.1%
53
Market Model 11.0% 10.8%
Governor
Market Model 76.0% 65.0%
Lieutenant Governor
Market Model 84.0% 78.9%
Yes
Market Model 44.0% 34.5%
Matthew McConaughey
Market Model 10.0% 4.1%
Casey DeSantis
Market Model 19.0% 9.4%
Blue tsunami in 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 48.0% 36.4%
Fiona Ma
Market Model 70.0% 50.9%
Josh Fryday
Market Model 23.0% 30.6%
5 or more
Market Model 22.0% 22.9%
Exactly 4
Market Model 41.0% 38.8%
CA-11 House winner? (Person) Kalshi
Saikat Chakrabarti
Market Model 37.0% 30.9%
Scott Wiener
Market Model 62.0% 60.0%
Mary Peltola
Market Model 59.0% 59.6%
Dan Sullivan
Market Model 45.0% 37.8%
Republicans win
Market Model 15.0% 11.7%
Democrats, 0 to 2%
Market Model 5.9% 3.9%
Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi
Georgia
Market Model 7.8% 13.4%
Texas
Market Model 19.0% 15.5%
Democratic party
Market Model 39.0% 45.0%
Republican party
Market Model 56.0% 55.0%
Bernadette Wilson
Market Model 22.0% 22.9%
Tom Begich
Market Model 37.0% 31.2%
Yes
Market Model 92.9% 95.5%
Susan Mendoza
Market Model 16.0% 12.4%
Alexi Giannoulias
Market Model 63.0% 44.7%
Arizona State House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 47.0% 41.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 53.0% 58.6%
LA-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Renada Collins
Market Model 4.0% 2.3%
Troy Carter
Market Model 95.2% 97.7%
TN-08 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 94.9% 97.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.0% 2.2%
Before 2030
Market Model 12.0% 11.6%
Before 2032
Market Model 13.0% 11.6%
Texas Senate: Exact outcome Kalshi
Cornyn beats Talarico
Market Model 39.0% 34.2%
Talarico beats Paxton
Market Model 25.0% 21.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-30 House election: Frederick Haynes vote percent Top outcome: At least 76% | 64.0% | 61.1% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| CA-04 House winner? Top outcome: Mike Thompson | 66.0% | 70.8% | High | 88 | Refresh |
| California Governor winner? (Person) Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 4.4% | 3.8% | High | 84 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Top outcome: Republican Party | 53.0% | 51.8% | High | 91 | Refresh |
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Top outcome: R-House, R-Senate | 17.0% | 20.4% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Michigan Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Mike Rogers | 36.0% | 36.7% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Ohio Attorney General winner? Top outcome: John Kulewicz | 17.0% | 14.6% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| Missouri's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 20+ pts | 70.0% | 66.0% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026? Top outcome: Virginia Question 1 | 90.0% | 86.8% | Med | 59 | Refresh |
| LA-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Lauren Jewett | 16.0% | 98.9% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| Indiana Secretary of State winner? Top outcome: Max Engling | 29.0% | 23.4% | Med | 79 | Refresh |
| MO-02 House winner? Top outcome: Ann Wagner | 79.0% | 83.0% | Med | 78 | Refresh |
| Los Angeles Mayor winner? Top outcome: Nithya Raman | 38.0% | 34.1% | High | 91 | Refresh |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Top outcome: Gavin Newsom | 17.0% | 17.5% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 16.0% | 18.9% | High | 84 | Refresh |
| Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 32.0% | 39.3% | Med | 77 | Refresh |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? Top outcome: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 61.0% | 52.0% | Med | 86 | Refresh |
| 2028 Republican VP nominee Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 28.0% | 37.2% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| 2028 Democratic VP nominee Top outcome: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8.5% | 10.1% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| Which states will redistrict before the midterms? Top outcome: Virginia | 7.0% | 1.7% | Med | 63 | Refresh |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 26.0% | 25.2% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the U.S. House? Top outcome: Republican Party | 17.0% | 14.9% | High | 91 | Refresh |
| Blue wave in 2026? Yes refers to: Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate? | 68.0% | 62.9% | Med | 90 | Refresh |
| New York Attorney General winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 94.0% | 96.8% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Who will win the Attorney General race in Nebraska? Top outcome: Republican party | 95.2% | 95.6% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Vermont Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Republican party | 7.0% | 3.1% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| Will Democrats hold a midterm convention? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026 | 1.0% | 0.6% | Med | 83 | Refresh |
| Who will win the Attorney General race in Idaho? Top outcome: Republican party | 96.0% | 95.0% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Connecticut Attorney General winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 94.5% | 92.8% | High | 60 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Republican party | 26.0% | 26.2% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| Alabama Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 6.7% | 5.4% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Illinois's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 26+ pts | 74.0% | 71.2% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Florida's 13th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 25.0% | 19.2% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Iowa's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 30+ pts | 31.0% | 27.0% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 10+ pts | 16.0% | 16.3% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 10+ pts | 9.0% | 5.2% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 11+ pts | 21.0% | 28.2% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 58+ pts | 15.0% | 15.0% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| IN-04 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 92.7% | 96.5% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| Florida's 27th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 9+ pts | 7.9% | 5.0% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 51+ pts | 46.0% | 30.0% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 25+ pts | 14.0% | 14.3% | Med | 81 | Refresh |
| Iowa's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 75.0% | 57.9% | Med | 69 | Refresh |
| Kansas's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 23+ pts | 30.0% | 32.7% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Connecticut's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 22+ pts | 92.2% | 86.2% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Minnesota's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 13+ pts | 54.0% | 39.6% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Georgia's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 16+ pts | 55.0% | 55.0% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Georgia's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 23+ pts | 59.0% | 44.2% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 5th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 8+ pts | 8.4% | 8.6% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| Ohio Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 33.0% | 27.3% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate winner? (Party) Top outcome: Democratic party | 58.0% | 66.1% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama? Top outcome: 0 | 12.0% | 84.0% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Illinois's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 56+ pts | 89.0% | 89.0% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 37+ pts | 83.0% | 80.8% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 10+ pts | 61.0% | 58.1% | Med | 74 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 10.0% | 10.4% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 5+ pts | 16.0% | 8.0% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| LA-06 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 32.0% | 40.4% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| Indiana's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 34+ pts | 92.6% | 95.0% | Med | 72 | Refresh |
| Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Top outcome: Marjorie Taylor Greene | 34.0% | 21.3% | Med | 82 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 8th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 89.0% | 81.1% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| IN-05 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 84.0% | 87.8% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Georgia's 13th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 37+ pts | 78.0% | 75.4% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 11th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 35+ pts | 10.0% | 2.0% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| Florida's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 22+ pts | 48.0% | 35.9% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Maine's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 20.0% | 20.1% | High | 58 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 3+ pts | 25.0% | 19.2% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? Yes refers to: Yes | 56.0% | 44.1% | Med | 90 | Refresh |
| Kentucky's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 3+ pts | 75.0% | 57.9% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 5+ pts | 44.0% | 24.6% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 9th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 87.0% | 88.0% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Montana's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 9+ pts | 11.0% | 6.4% | Med | 81 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 18+ pts | 88.0% | 91.4% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 5th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 13+ pts | 88.0% | 100.0% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Will Kamala Harris run for California Governor? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 3.5% | 1.5% | Med | 68 | Refresh |
| Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2029 | 9.2% | 6.9% | Med | 78 | Refresh |
| FL-09 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 42.0% | 34.0% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Iowa Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Zach Wahls | 15.0% | 15.9% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? Top outcome: 10 | 51.0% | 38.2% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 57.0% | 49.0% | Med | 78 | Refresh |
| Chicago mayoral election winner? (2027) Top outcome: Alexi Giannoulias | 56.0% | 48.1% | Med | 80 | Refresh |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Top outcome: Below 53 | 81.0% | 70.1% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| Georgia: Which elections will be won outright? Top outcome: Governor | 76.0% | 65.0% | Med | 72 | Refresh |
| 44.0% | 34.5% | Med | 61 | Refresh | |
| Who will run for public office in 2026? Top outcome: Matthew McConaughey | 10.0% | 4.1% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes refers to: Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate? | 48.0% | 36.4% | Med | 90 | Refresh |
| California Lieutenant Governor winner? Top outcome: Fiona Ma | 70.0% | 50.9% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026? Top outcome: 5 or more | 22.0% | 22.9% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| CA-11 House winner? (Person) Top outcome: Saikat Chakrabarti | 37.0% | 30.9% | High | 86 | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 59.0% | 59.6% | High | 89 | Refresh |
| 2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Top outcome: Republicans win | 15.0% | 11.7% | Med | 84 | Refresh |
| Closest Senate race in 2026? Top outcome: Georgia | 7.8% | 13.4% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor winner? (Party) Top outcome: Democratic party | 39.0% | 45.0% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor winner? (Person) Top outcome: Bernadette Wilson | 22.0% | 22.9% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot? Yes refers to: Yes | 92.9% | 95.5% | Med | 77 | Refresh |
| Who will win the Chicago mayoral election? Top outcome: Susan Mendoza | 16.0% | 12.4% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Arizona State House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 47.0% | 41.4% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| LA-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Renada Collins | 4.0% | 2.3% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| TN-08 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 94.9% | 97.8% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes? Top outcome: Before 2030 | 12.0% | 11.6% | Med | 61 | Refresh |
| Texas Senate: Exact outcome Top outcome: Cornyn beats Talarico | 39.0% | 34.2% | Med | 85 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (62)
DE-AL Republican nominee? Kalshi
Joseph Arminio
Market Model 99.0% 99.6%
John J. Whalen III
Market Model 1.0% 0.1%
Aaron Guckian
Market Model 99.4% 99.5%
Elaine Pelino
Market Model 0.4% 0.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Steve Hilton
Market Model 0.8% 0.0%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 99.3% 100.0%
SC-01 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Mark Smith
Market Model 62.0% 60.9%
Jenny Costa Honeycutt
Market Model 47.0% 39.1%
Karen Bass
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Nithya Raman
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
1 Democrat and 1 Republican
Market Model 87.0% 84.8%
2 Democrats
Market Model 17.0% 15.2%
Spencer Pratt
Market Model 36.0% 52.5%
Nithya Raman
Market Model 62.0% 47.5%
Ken Paxton, 20%+
Market Model 99.8% 99.9%
Ken Paxton, 15-20%
Market Model 0.2% 0.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
CA-40 primary advancers? Kalshi
Esther Kim Varet
Market Model 39.0% 26.0%
Young Kim
Market Model 86.0% 81.5%
Randy Villegas
Market Model 44.0% 31.0%
Rudy Salas
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
ND-AL Republican nominee? Kalshi
Alex Balazs
Market Model 5.0% 3.9%
Julie Fedorchak
Market Model 97.0% 92.0%
Jamie Davis
Market Model 86.0% 85.0%
Gary Crockett
Market Model 2.0% 9.0%
Steve Hilton, 3+ pts
Market Model 19.0% 11.1%
Steve Hilton, 5+ pts
Market Model 13.0% 7.5%
Above 3.0M
Market Model 5.1% 20.1%
Above 2.6M
Market Model 3.1% 20.1%
NE-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
John Cavanaugh
Market Model 60.0% 60.5%
Denise Powell
Market Model 41.0% 38.2%
Yes
Market Model 52.0% 56.0%
Senate Republican primary
Market Model 25.0% 13.7%
Governor Republican primary
Market Model 5.0% 1.8%
TX-18 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Christian Menefee
Market Model 94.3% 95.6%
Al Green
Market Model 6.0% 4.4%
Diego Morales
Market Model 81.0% 47.9%
David Shelton
Market Model 91.0% 51.7%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 22.0%
Scott Wiener
Market Model 94.3% 91.9%
Saikat Chakrabarti
Market Model 79.0% 69.7%
TX-33 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Colin Allred
Market Model 79.0% 82.5%
Julie Johnson
Market Model 23.0% 17.5%
MI-11 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Jeremy Moss
Market Model 93.0% 88.5%
Dave Woodward
Market Model 0.6% 0.5%
Jeff Kessler
Market Model 87.0% 83.6%
Rachel Fetty Anderson
Market Model 2.0% 1.5%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 0.0% 65.3%
TX-38 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Jon Bonck
Market Model 98.6% 97.8%
Shelly DeZevallos
Market Model 4.5% 2.2%
Yes
Market Model — —
MO-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Cori Bush
Market Model 37.0% 31.2%
Wesley Bell
Market Model 68.0% 68.8%
Robert White
Market Model 59.0% 44.3%
Brooke Pinto
Market Model 27.0% 23.4%
Bob Trammell
Market Model 6.3% 18.0%
Tanya Miller
Market Model 99.0% 82.0%
NY-17 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Beth Davidson
Market Model 43.0% 28.8%
Cait Conley
Market Model 50.0% 33.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
NH-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Stefany Shaheen
Market Model 61.0% 62.8%
Maura Sullivan
Market Model 35.0% 28.1%
MT-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Ryan Busse
Market Model 56.0% 53.6%
Sam Forstag
Market Model 26.0% 33.5%
NY-07 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Antonio Reynoso
Market Model 24.0% 26.3%
Claire Valdez
Market Model 74.0% 66.2%
Jerri Green
Market Model 86.0% 76.7%
Adam Kurtz
Market Model 11.0% 11.3%
Newark Mayor winner? Kalshi
Ras Baraka
Market Model 96.5% 94.3%
Douglas R. Davis
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
IN-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
J.D. Ford
Market Model 92.2% 87.2%
Jackson Franklin
Market Model 8.3% 8.2%
Aisha Wahab
Market Model 72.0% 60.2%
Rakhi Israni Singh
Market Model 21.0% 20.1%
NY-08 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Chi Ossé
Market Model 7.2% 5.2%
Hakeem Jeffries
Market Model 97.5% 88.0%
Mejia, 24% and above
Market Model 0.3% 1.3%
Mejia, 16-20%
Market Model 0.5% 3.3%
MA-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Katherine Clark
Market Model 88.0% 99.8%
Jonathan Paz
Market Model 12.0% 0.1%
PA-07 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Ryan Crosswell
Market Model 27.0% 32.7%
Bob Brooks
Market Model 71.0% 58.0%
Los Angeles mayor matchup Kalshi
Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass
Market Model 62.0% 53.5%
Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt
Market Model 17.0% 16.5%
NY-13 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Darializa Avila Chevalier
Market Model 47.0% 21.2%
Adriano Espaillat
Market Model 56.0% 55.1%
AZ-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Amish Shah
Market Model 72.0% 69.3%
Marlene Galán-Woods
Market Model 2.0% 2.1%
UT-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Ben McAdams
Market Model 76.0% 85.8%
Nate Blouin
Market Model 24.0% 8.3%
NY-15 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Michael Blake
Market Model 15.0% 3.1%
Ritchie Torres
Market Model 85.0% 90.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Steve Hilton
Market Model 59.0% 55.6%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 11.0% 12.8%
PA-03 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Chris Rabb
Market Model 38.0% 39.2%
Sharif Street
Market Model 63.0% 40.3%
MN-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Matt Little
Market Model 69.0% 76.4%
Matt Klein
Market Model 12.0% 14.4%
OH-09 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Derek Merrin
Market Model 86.0% 88.0%
Madison Sheahan
Market Model 0.3% 0.3%
Yes
Market Model — —
NY-04 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Anthony D’Esposito
Market Model 0.4% 20.0%
Don Clavin
Market Model 3.6% 1.0%
KY-04 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Thomas Massie
Market Model 44.0% 71.9%
Ed Gallrein
Market Model 58.0% 27.1%
Yes, 0-3%
Market Model 0.7% 1.6%
No, 0-3%
Market Model 0.5% 0.9%
SC-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Nancy Lacore
Market Model 81.0% 69.2%
Mac Deford
Market Model 20.0% 24.7%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 31.8%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE-AL Republican nominee? Top outcome: Joseph Arminio | 99.0% | 99.6% | High | — | |
| Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Aaron Guckian | 99.4% | 99.5% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| California Governor primary: 1st place Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 0.8% | 0.0% | High | — | |
| SC-01 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Mark Smith | 62.0% | 60.9% | High | — | |
| Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner Top outcome: Karen Bass | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | — | |
| California Governor primary advancers? (Party) Top outcome: 1 Democrat and 1 Republican | 87.0% | 84.8% | Med | — | |
| Who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election? Top outcome: Spencer Pratt | 36.0% | 52.5% | Med | — | |
| Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory Top outcome: Ken Paxton, 20%+ | 99.8% | 99.9% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| CA-40 primary advancers? Top outcome: Esther Kim Varet | 39.0% | 26.0% | Med | — | |
| Who will advance from the CA-22 primary? Top outcome: Randy Villegas | 44.0% | 31.0% | Med | — | |
| ND-AL Republican nominee? Top outcome: Alex Balazs | 5.0% | 3.9% | High | — | |
| Louisiana Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jamie Davis | 86.0% | 85.0% | High | — | |
| California Governor Primary margin of victory Top outcome: Steve Hilton, 3+ pts | 19.0% | 11.1% | High | — | |
| Voter turnout for the Virginia redistricting referendum? Top outcome: Above 3.0M | 5.1% | 20.1% | High | — | |
| NE-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: John Cavanaugh | 60.0% | 60.5% | High | — | |
| 2026 Republican Senate primaries combo Yes refers to: Yes | 52.0% | 56.0% | Med | — | |
| Which Georgia primary elections will have a first-round winner? Top outcome: Senate Republican primary | 25.0% | 13.7% | Med | — | |
| TX-18 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Christian Menefee | 94.3% | 95.6% | High | — | |
| Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee? Top outcome: Diego Morales | 81.0% | 47.9% | High | — | |
| 2026 Democratic Senate primaries combo Yes refers to: Yes | 17.0% | 22.0% | Med | — | |
| Who will advance from the CA-11 primary? Top outcome: Scott Wiener | 94.3% | 91.9% | Med | — | |
| TX-33 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Colin Allred | 79.0% | 82.5% | High | — | |
| MI-11 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Jeremy Moss | 93.0% | 88.5% | High | — | |
| West Virginia Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jeff Kessler | 87.0% | 83.6% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026 | 0.0% | 65.3% | High | — | |
| TX-38 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Jon Bonck | 98.6% | 97.8% | High | — | |
| — | — | Low | — | ||
| MO-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Cori Bush | 37.0% | 31.2% | High | — | |
| DC Democratic House delegate nominee? Top outcome: Robert White | 59.0% | 44.3% | High | — | |
| Georgia Democratic Attorney General nominee? Top outcome: Bob Trammell | 6.3% | 18.0% | High | — | |
| NY-17 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Beth Davidson | 43.0% | 28.8% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| NH-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Stefany Shaheen | 61.0% | 62.8% | High | — | |
| MT-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Busse | 56.0% | 53.6% | High | — | |
| NY-07 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Antonio Reynoso | 24.0% | 26.3% | High | — | |
| Tennessee Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Jerri Green | 86.0% | 76.7% | High | — | |
| Newark Mayor winner? Top outcome: Ras Baraka | 96.5% | 94.3% | High | — | |
| IN-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: J.D. Ford | 92.2% | 87.2% | Med | — | |
| CA-14 special election winner Top outcome: Aisha Wahab | 72.0% | 60.2% | High | — | |
| NY-08 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Chi Ossé | 7.2% | 5.2% | High | — | |
| 2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory? Top outcome: Mejia, 24% and above | 0.3% | 1.3% | High | — | |
| MA-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Katherine Clark | 88.0% | 99.8% | High | — | |
| PA-07 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Crosswell | 27.0% | 32.7% | High | — | |
| Los Angeles mayor matchup Top outcome: Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass | 62.0% | 53.5% | Med | — | |
| NY-13 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Darializa Avila Chevalier | 47.0% | 21.2% | High | — | |
| AZ-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Amish Shah | 72.0% | 69.3% | High | — | |
| UT-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ben McAdams | 76.0% | 85.8% | High | — | |
| NY-15 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Michael Blake | 15.0% | 3.1% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Who will lead the next qualifying poll in the California governor's race? Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 59.0% | 55.6% | High | — | |
| PA-03 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Chris Rabb | 38.0% | 39.2% | High | — | |
| MN-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Matt Little | 69.0% | 76.4% | High | — | |
| OH-09 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Derek Merrin | 86.0% | 88.0% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| NY-04 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Anthony D’Esposito | 0.4% | 20.0% | High | — | |
| KY-04 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Thomas Massie | 44.0% | 71.9% | Med | — | |
| Virginia redistricting referendum margin of victory? Top outcome: Yes, 0-3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | Med | — | |
| SC-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Nancy Lacore | 81.0% | 69.2% | High | — | |
| Democratic Senate primaries: progressives sweep? Yes refers to: Yes | 43.0% | 31.8% | Med | — |
