Democrats, 8+ pts
Market Model 70.0% 72.1%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 67.0% 70.2%
US Elections Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (94)
At least 4.5%
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
At least 3.5%
Market Model 8.0% 4.0%
Before Nov 14
Market Model 72.0% 66.3%
Before Nov 11
Market Model 70.0% 61.3%
Yes
Market Model 99.0% 99.4%
Montana US Senate
Market Model 95.0% 99.0%
New Jersey US Senate
Market Model 9.0% 1.0%
Fletcher, 27+ pts
Market Model 98.7% 100.0%
Fletcher, 30+ pts
Market Model 92.6% 100.0%
Miller, 45+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 5.4%
Miller, 36+ pts
Market Model 3.1% 5.4%
Rutinel, 5+ pts
Market Model 97.6% 100.0%
Rutinel, 8+ pts
Market Model 95.3% 100.0%
At least 18%
Market Model 3.0% 0.0%
At least 20%
Market Model 4.0% 0.0%
TN-04 House winner? Kalshi
Victoria Broderick
Market Model 95.9% 97.8%
Scott DesJarlais
Market Model 5.1% 2.2%
Above 1.13M
Market Model 7.0% 2.0%
Above 770K
Market Model 99.0% 99.5%
Stout, 4+ pts
Market Model 98.3% 100.0%
Stout, 1+ pts
Market Model 97.0% 100.0%
Above 1.1M
Market Model 98.0% 97.0%
Above 1.0M
Market Model 30.0% 98.0%
At least 50%
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
At least 52%
Market Model 77.0% 100.0%
Bottoms by 0+
Market Model 6.0% 3.0%
Ossoff by 15-18
Market Model 8.0% 4.0%
Bottoms, 5+ pts
Market Model 98.8% 100.0%
Bottoms, 2+ pts
Market Model 99.1% 100.0%
Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment
Market Model 3.0% 1.6%
Prohibit Partial Veto to Increase Tax or Fee Amendment
Market Model 64.0% 65.1%
At least 46%
Market Model 91.0% 94.9%
At least 50%
Market Model 58.0% 46.1%
At least 42%
Market Model 26.0% 17.6%
At least 36%
Market Model 72.0% 58.1%
Democratic party
Market Model 89.0% 87.1%
Republican party
Market Model 12.0% 12.9%
Maine State Senate winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 93.0% 93.0%
Dan Sullivan
Market Model 33.0% 41.1%
Mary Peltola
Market Model 69.0% 56.5%
Alaska Governor winner? Kalshi
Tom Begich
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Market Model 89.0% 83.0%
10
Market Model 4.2% 3.3%
9
Market Model 40.0% 38.6%
Yes
Market Model 60.0% 61.9%
Republicans win
Market Model 5.4% 4.2%
Democrats, 0 to 2%
Market Model 2.0% 1.4%
Above 230K
Market Model 4.0% 2.7%
Above 193K
Market Model 11.0% 85.0%
Republican party
Market Model 38.0% 40.3%
Democratic party
Market Model 66.0% 59.7%
Colorado State House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 98.0% 97.8%
Republican party
Market Model 3.0% 2.2%
At least 34%
Market Model 18.0% 48.8%
At least 28%
Market Model 91.0% 82.0%
Gallrein, 42+ pts
Market Model 13.0% 13.4%
Gallrein, 18+ pts
Market Model 82.0% 77.0%
LA-06
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
LA-05
Market Model 5.0% 1.8%
Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond
Market Model 82.0% 88.3%
Higher Education Bond
Market Model 22.0% 23.5%
At least 76%
Market Model 64.0% 61.1%
At least 70%
Market Model 94.0% 91.9%
CA-04 House winner? Kalshi
Mike Thompson
Market Model 66.0% 70.8%
Eric Jones
Market Model 32.0% 29.2%
John Kulewicz
Market Model 17.0% 14.6%
Keith Faber
Market Model 83.0% 85.4%
Republicans, 20+ pts
Market Model 70.0% 66.0%
Republicans, 14+ pts
Market Model 79.0% 73.5%
Los Angeles Mayor winner? Kalshi
Nithya Raman
Market Model 38.0% 34.1%
Karen Bass
Market Model 62.0% 65.9%
Gavin Newsom
Market Model 17.0% 17.5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 15.0% 14.5%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 16.0% 18.9%
Jon Ossoff
Market Model 10.0% 10.9%
Yes
Market Model 32.0% 39.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 61.0% 52.0%
Kamala Harris
Market Model 76.0% 68.6%
2028 Republican VP nominee Kalshi
Marco Rubio
Market Model 28.0% 37.2%
J.D. Vance
Market Model 6.7% 4.8%
2028 Democratic VP nominee Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 8.5% 10.1%
Gretchen Whitmer
Market Model 9.7% 9.7%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 26.0% 25.2%
Tucker Carlson
Market Model 3.1% 3.6%
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 68.0% 62.9%
Republican party
Market Model 7.0% 3.1%
Democratic party
Market Model 95.9% 96.9%
Republican party
Market Model 26.0% 26.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 80.0% 73.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 6.7% 5.4%
Republican party
Market Model 97.9% 94.6%
Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 74.0% 71.2%
Republicans, 29+ pts
Market Model 73.0% 70.2%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 7.3% 5.7%
Republicans, 30+ pts
Market Model 31.0% 27.0%
Republicans, 12+ pts
Market Model 79.0% 79.2%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 16.0% 16.3%
Democrats, 1+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 72.3%
Republicans, 10+ pts
Market Model 9.0% 5.2%
Republicans, 7+ pts
Market Model 8.9% 5.2%
Republicans, 11+ pts
Market Model 21.0% 28.2%
Republicans, 14+ pts
Market Model 8.4% 18.6%
Democrats, 58+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Democrats, 52+ pts
Market Model 35.0% 28.0%
Democrats, 9+ pts
Market Model 7.9% 5.0%
Democrats, 6+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 8.0%
Democrats, 51+ pts
Market Model 46.0% 30.0%
Democrats, 39+ pts
Market Model 98.6% 98.0%
Democrats, 25+ pts
Market Model 14.0% 14.3%
Democrats, 4+ pts
Market Model 90.5% 89.1%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 57.9%
Democrats, 14+ pts
Market Model 7.9% 4.6%
Republicans, 23+ pts
Market Model 30.0% 32.7%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 80.0% 80.2%
Democrats, 22+ pts
Market Model 92.2% 86.2%
Democrats, 31+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 38.6%
Democrats, 13+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 39.6%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 65.0% 50.3%
Republicans, 16+ pts
Market Model 55.0% 55.0%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 68.0% 69.5%
Republicans, 23+ pts
Market Model 59.0% 44.2%
Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 56.0% 41.4%
Democrats, 8+ pts
Market Model 8.4% 8.6%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 18.0% 17.9%
Ohio Senate winner? (2028) Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 33.0% 27.3%
Republican party
Market Model 60.0% 72.7%
Democrats, 56+ pts
Market Model 89.0% 89.0%
Democrats, 80+ pts
Market Model 13.0% 2.0%
Democrats, 37+ pts
Market Model 83.0% 80.8%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 92.1% 90.9%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 61.0% 58.1%
Democrats, 13+ pts
Market Model 31.0% 30.2%
LA-06 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 32.0% 40.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 65.0% 59.6%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 92.6% 95.0%
Democrats, 58+ pts
Market Model 8.6% 7.0%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Market Model 34.0% 21.3%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 66.0% 61.8%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 89.0% 81.1%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 5.0%
Democrats, 37+ pts
Market Model 78.0% 75.4%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 81.0% 78.6%
Democrats, 35+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 2.0%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 10.0%
Republicans, 22+ pts
Market Model 48.0% 35.9%
Republicans, 28+ pts
Market Model 38.0% 25.0%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 43.0% 41.1%
Democrats, 3+ pts
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Democrats, 6+ pts
Market Model 14.0% 10.8%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 44.0% 24.6%
Republicans, 2+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 32.2%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 87.0% 88.0%
Republicans, 15+ pts
Market Model 73.0% 74.9%
Democrats, 9+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 6.4%
Democrats, 3+ pts
Market Model 35.0% 21.2%
Democrats, 18+ pts
Market Model 88.0% 91.4%
Democrats, 21+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 81.4%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 88.0% 100.0%
Republicans, 37+ pts
Market Model 9.9% 0.0%
Yes
Market Model 3.5% 1.5%
Yes
Market Model 9.2% 6.9%
FL-09 House winner? Kalshi
Democratic party
Market Model 42.0% 34.0%
Republican party
Market Model 56.0% 66.0%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 49.0%
Alexi Giannoulias
Market Model 56.0% 48.1%
Maria Pappas
Market Model 3.1% 1.0%
Blue tsunami in 2026? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 48.0% 36.4%
CA-11 House winner? (Person) Kalshi
Saikat Chakrabarti
Market Model 37.0% 30.9%
Scott Wiener
Market Model 62.0% 60.0%
Susan Mendoza
Market Model 16.0% 12.4%
Alexi Giannoulias
Market Model 63.0% 44.7%
Arizona State House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 47.0% 41.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 53.0% 58.6%
Before 2030
Market Model 12.0% 11.6%
Before 2032
Market Model 13.0% 11.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Governor margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 8+ pts | 70.0% | 72.1% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Nevada Governor election: None of These Candidates vote share? Top outcome: At least 4.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| When will AP call the Mississippi Senate election? Top outcome: Before Nov 14 | 72.0% | 66.3% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? Yes refers to: Yes | 99.0% | 99.4% | Med | 79 | Refresh |
| Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey? Top outcome: Montana US Senate | 95.0% | 99.0% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Texas's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Fletcher, 27+ pts | 98.7% | 100.0% | High | 72 | Refresh |
| West Virginia's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Miller, 45+ pts | 15.0% | 5.4% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 8th District margin of victory Top outcome: Rutinel, 5+ pts | 97.6% | 100.0% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| MN-05 House election: John Nagel vote percent Top outcome: At least 18% | 3.0% | 0.0% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| TN-04 House winner? Top outcome: Victoria Broderick | 95.9% | 97.8% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Mississippi Senate General Election: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 1.13M | 7.0% | 2.0% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Texas's 23rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Stout, 4+ pts | 98.3% | 100.0% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 1.1M | 98.0% | 97.0% | High | 67 | Refresh |
| Starr County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent Top outcome: At least 50% | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Georgia: Bottoms's margin vs. Ossoff's margin? Top outcome: Bottoms by 0+ | 6.0% | 3.0% | High | 85 | Refresh |
| Georgia Governor margin of victory Top outcome: Bottoms, 5+ pts | 98.8% | 100.0% | High | 91 | Refresh |
| Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin? Top outcome: Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment | 3.0% | 1.6% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Texas Senate election: James Talarico vote percent Top outcome: At least 46% | 91.0% | 94.9% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Tennessee Governor election: Jerri Green vote percent Top outcome: At least 42% | 26.0% | 17.6% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Minnesota State Senate winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 89.0% | 87.1% | Med | — | Refresh |
| Maine State Senate winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 7.0% | 7.0% | High | — | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Dan Sullivan | 33.0% | 41.1% | High | 87 | Refresh |
| Alaska Governor winner? Top outcome: Tom Begich | 0.1% | 0.1% | High | 85 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? Top outcome: 10 | 4.2% | 3.3% | High | — | Refresh |
| 60.0% | 61.9% | Med | 57 | Refresh | |
| 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Top outcome: Republicans win | 5.4% | 4.2% | High | 92 | Refresh |
| Louisiana 06 House General Election: voter turnout Top outcome: Above 230K | 4.0% | 2.7% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| Wisconsin State Assembly winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 38.0% | 40.3% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Colorado State House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 98.0% | 97.8% | High | 87 | Refresh |
| HI-02 House election: Brenton Awa vote percent Top outcome: At least 34% | 18.0% | 48.8% | High | 82 | Refresh |
| Kentucky's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Gallrein, 42+ pts | 13.0% | 13.4% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Louisiana: Which House races will be won outright? Top outcome: LA-06 | 3.0% | 1.0% | Med | 75 | Refresh |
| Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island? Top outcome: Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond | 82.0% | 88.3% | Med | 74 | Refresh |
| TX-30 House election: Frederick Haynes vote percent Top outcome: At least 76% | 64.0% | 61.1% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| CA-04 House winner? Top outcome: Mike Thompson | 66.0% | 70.8% | High | 88 | Refresh |
| Ohio Attorney General winner? Top outcome: John Kulewicz | 17.0% | 14.6% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Missouri's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 20+ pts | 70.0% | 66.0% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Los Angeles Mayor winner? Top outcome: Nithya Raman | 38.0% | 34.1% | High | — | Refresh |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Top outcome: Gavin Newsom | 17.0% | 17.5% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 16.0% | 18.9% | High | 86 | Refresh |
| Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 32.0% | 39.3% | Med | 60 | Refresh |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? Top outcome: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 61.0% | 52.0% | Med | 85 | Refresh |
| 2028 Republican VP nominee Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 28.0% | 37.2% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| 2028 Democratic VP nominee Top outcome: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8.5% | 10.1% | High | 40 | Refresh |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 26.0% | 25.2% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
| Blue wave in 2026? Yes refers to: Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate? | 68.0% | 62.9% | Med | 93 | Refresh |
| Vermont Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Republican party | 7.0% | 3.1% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Republican party | 26.0% | 26.2% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Alabama Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 6.7% | 5.4% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| Illinois's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 26+ pts | 74.0% | 71.2% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Florida's 13th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 25.0% | 19.2% | High | — | Refresh |
| Iowa's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 30+ pts | 31.0% | 27.0% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 10+ pts | 16.0% | 16.3% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 10+ pts | 9.0% | 5.2% | High | — | Refresh |
| Colorado's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 11+ pts | 21.0% | 28.2% | High | 85 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 58+ pts | 15.0% | 15.0% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| Florida's 27th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 9+ pts | 7.9% | 5.0% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 51+ pts | 46.0% | 30.0% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 25+ pts | 14.0% | 14.3% | Med | 71 | Refresh |
| Iowa's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 75.0% | 57.9% | Med | 75 | Refresh |
| Kansas's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 23+ pts | 30.0% | 32.7% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Connecticut's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 22+ pts | 92.2% | 86.2% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| Minnesota's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 13+ pts | 54.0% | 39.6% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Georgia's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 16+ pts | 55.0% | 55.0% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Georgia's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 23+ pts | 59.0% | 44.2% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 5th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 8+ pts | 8.4% | 8.6% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Ohio Senate winner? (2028) Top outcome: Democratic party | 33.0% | 27.3% | High | 74 | Refresh |
| Illinois's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 56+ pts | 89.0% | 89.0% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 37+ pts | 83.0% | 80.8% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 10+ pts | 61.0% | 58.1% | Med | 82 | Refresh |
| LA-06 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 32.0% | 40.4% | High | 78 | Refresh |
| Indiana's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 34+ pts | 92.6% | 95.0% | Med | 61 | Refresh |
| Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Top outcome: Marjorie Taylor Greene | 34.0% | 21.3% | Med | 84 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 8th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 89.0% | 81.1% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Georgia's 13th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 37+ pts | 78.0% | 75.4% | High | 80 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 11th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 35+ pts | 10.0% | 2.0% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Florida's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 22+ pts | 48.0% | 35.9% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Maine's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 20.0% | 20.1% | High | 79 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 3+ pts | 25.0% | 19.2% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 5+ pts | 44.0% | 24.6% | High | — | Refresh |
| Arizona's 9th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 87.0% | 88.0% | High | 73 | Refresh |
| Montana's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 9+ pts | 11.0% | 6.4% | Med | 82 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 18+ pts | 88.0% | 91.4% | High | 75 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 5th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 13+ pts | 88.0% | 100.0% | High | 81 | Refresh |
| Will Kamala Harris run for California Governor? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 3.5% | 1.5% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2029 | 9.2% | 6.9% | Med | 79 | Refresh |
| FL-09 House winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 42.0% | 34.0% | High | 83 | Refresh |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 57.0% | 49.0% | Med | 76 | Refresh |
| Chicago mayoral election winner? (2027) Top outcome: Alexi Giannoulias | 56.0% | 48.1% | Med | 82 | Refresh |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes refers to: Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate? | 48.0% | 36.4% | Med | 93 | Refresh |
| CA-11 House winner? (Person) Top outcome: Saikat Chakrabarti | 37.0% | 30.9% | High | 92 | Refresh |
| Who will win the Chicago mayoral election? Top outcome: Susan Mendoza | 16.0% | 12.4% | High | 84 | Refresh |
| Arizona State House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 47.0% | 41.4% | High | 90 | Refresh |
| Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes? Top outcome: Before 2030 | 12.0% | 11.6% | Med | 66 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (100)
John King
Market Model 26.0% 43.2%
Keisha Sean Waites
Market Model 41.0% 56.8%
Iowa Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi
Josh Turek
Market Model 48.0% 49.3%
Ashley Hinson
Market Model 54.0% 50.7%
Mike Rogers
Market Model 27.0% 26.7%
Abdul El-Sayed
Market Model 74.0% 73.3%
Fiona Ma
Market Model 95.8% 97.4%
Gloria Romero
Market Model 4.2% 2.6%
Hinson, 2+ pts
Market Model 40.0% 30.3%
Hinson, 4+ pts
Market Model 23.0% 15.5%
Republicans sweep
Market Model 8.2% 5.6%
R-House, D-Senate
Market Model 0.8% 0.7%
2
Market Model 34.0% 36.8%
1
Market Model 66.0% 61.7%
Yes
Market Model — —
Steve Hilton
Market Model 3.4% 3.4%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 96.8% 96.6%
Will Treg Taylor drop out? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Herrera, 17+ pts
Market Model 47.0% 25.1%
Herrera, 8+ pts
Market Model 68.0% 47.7%
Jon Echols
Market Model 98.3% 96.6%
Nick Coffey
Market Model 4.7% 3.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Who will AOC endorse? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Drug Legalization Authority Amendment
Market Model 4.0% 1.4%
English as Official State Language Amendment
Market Model 94.0% 92.1%
DE-AL Republican nominee? Kalshi
Joseph Arminio
Market Model 99.0% 99.6%
John J. Whalen III
Market Model 1.0% 0.1%
Aaron Guckian
Market Model 99.4% 99.5%
Elaine Pelino
Market Model 0.4% 0.4%
Republican Party
Market Model 53.0% 51.8%
Democratic Party
Market Model 48.0% 48.2%
Virginia Question 1
Market Model 90.0% 86.8%
Missouri Amendment 3
Market Model 95.0% 93.4%
LA-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Lauren Jewett
Market Model 16.0% 98.9%
Jim Long
Market Model 0.3% 1.1%
Max Engling
Market Model 29.0% 23.4%
Beau Bayh
Market Model 95.0% 76.6%
MO-02 House winner? Kalshi
Ann Wagner
Market Model 79.0% 83.0%
Fred Wellman
Market Model 21.0% 17.0%
Republican Party
Market Model 17.0% 14.9%
Democratic Party
Market Model 83.0% 85.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Steve Hilton
Market Model 0.8% 0.0%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 99.3% 100.0%
SC-01 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Mark Smith
Market Model 62.0% 60.9%
Jenny Costa Honeycutt
Market Model 47.0% 39.1%
Karen Bass
Market Model 99.0% 100.0%
Nithya Raman
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
1 Democrat and 1 Republican
Market Model 87.0% 84.8%
2 Democrats
Market Model 17.0% 15.2%
Spencer Pratt
Market Model 36.0% 52.5%
Nithya Raman
Market Model 62.0% 47.5%
Ken Paxton, 20%+
Market Model 99.8% 99.9%
Ken Paxton, 15-20%
Market Model 0.2% 0.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
CA-40 primary advancers? Kalshi
Esther Kim Varet
Market Model 39.0% 26.0%
Young Kim
Market Model 86.0% 81.5%
Jasmeet Bains
Market Model 61.0% 50.0%
Eric Garcia
Market Model 1.0% 0.3%
ND-AL Republican nominee? Kalshi
Alex Balazs
Market Model 5.0% 3.9%
Julie Fedorchak
Market Model 97.0% 92.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 94.0% 96.8%
Republican party
Market Model 7.3% 3.2%
Republican party
Market Model 95.2% 95.6%
Democratic party
Market Model 7.0% 4.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Jamie Davis
Market Model 86.0% 85.0%
Gary Crockett
Market Model 2.0% 9.0%
Republican party
Market Model 96.0% 95.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.0% 5.0%
Democratic party
Market Model 94.5% 92.8%
Republican party
Market Model 10.0% 7.2%
IN-04 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 92.7% 96.5%
Democratic party
Market Model 7.7% 3.5%
Steve Hilton, 3+ pts
Market Model 19.0% 11.1%
Steve Hilton, 5+ pts
Market Model 13.0% 7.5%
Above 3.0M
Market Model 5.1% 20.1%
Above 2.6M
Market Model 3.1% 20.1%
NE-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 10.4%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 22.0% 21.9%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 16.0% 8.0%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 9.8% 4.9%
Yes
Market Model — —
IN-05 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 84.0% 87.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 17.0% 12.2%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 57.9%
Republicans, 6+ pts
Market Model 62.0% 43.2%
Senate Republican primary
Market Model 25.0% 13.7%
Governor Republican primary
Market Model 5.0% 1.8%
TX-18 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Christian Menefee
Market Model 94.3% 95.6%
Al Green
Market Model 6.0% 4.4%
Diego Morales
Market Model 81.0% 47.9%
David Shelton
Market Model 91.0% 51.7%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 1.1%
TX-33 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Colin Allred
Market Model 79.0% 82.5%
Julie Johnson
Market Model 23.0% 17.5%
MI-11 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Jeff Kessler
Market Model 87.0% 83.6%
Rachel Fetty Anderson
Market Model 2.0% 1.5%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
TX-38 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Jon Bonck
Market Model 98.6% 97.8%
Shelly DeZevallos
Market Model 4.5% 2.2%
Yes
Market Model — —
MO-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Bob Trammell
Market Model 6.3% 18.0%
Tanya Miller
Market Model 99.0% 82.0%
NY-17 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
NH-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
MT-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Ryan Busse
Market Model 56.0% 53.6%
Sam Forstag
Market Model 26.0% 33.5%
NY-07 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Antonio Reynoso
Market Model 24.0% 26.3%
Claire Valdez
Market Model 74.0% 66.2%
Jerri Green
Market Model 86.0% 76.7%
Adam Kurtz
Market Model 11.0% 11.3%
Newark Mayor winner? Kalshi
Ras Baraka
Market Model 96.5% 94.3%
Douglas R. Davis
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
IN-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
J.D. Ford
Market Model 92.2% 87.2%
Jackson Franklin
Market Model 8.3% 8.2%
Aisha Wahab
Market Model 72.0% 60.2%
Rakhi Israni Singh
Market Model 21.0% 20.1%
NY-08 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Mejia, 24% and above
Market Model 0.3% 1.3%
Mejia, 16-20%
Market Model 0.5% 3.3%
MA-05 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Katherine Clark
Market Model 88.0% 99.8%
Jonathan Paz
Market Model 12.0% 0.1%
Governor
Market Model 76.0% 65.0%
Lieutenant Governor
Market Model 84.0% 78.9%
Yes
Market Model — —
5 or more
Market Model 22.0% 22.9%
Exactly 4
Market Model 41.0% 38.8%
PA-07 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Ryan Crosswell
Market Model 27.0% 32.7%
Bob Brooks
Market Model 71.0% 58.0%
Los Angeles mayor matchup Kalshi
Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass
Market Model 62.0% 53.5%
Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt
Market Model 17.0% 16.5%
NY-13 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Darializa Avila Chevalier
Market Model 47.0% 21.2%
Adriano Espaillat
Market Model 56.0% 55.1%
AZ-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
UT-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
NY-15 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Steve Hilton
Market Model 59.0% 55.6%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 11.0% 12.8%
PA-03 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
MN-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
OH-09 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Derek Merrin
Market Model 86.0% 88.0%
Madison Sheahan
Market Model 0.3% 0.3%
Yes
Market Model — —
NY-04 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
KY-04 Republican nominee? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes, 0-3%
Market Model 0.7% 1.6%
No, 0-3%
Market Model 0.5% 0.9%
SC-01 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Nancy Lacore
Market Model 81.0% 69.2%
Mac Deford
Market Model 20.0% 24.7%
LA-02 Democratic nominee? Kalshi
Renada Collins
Market Model 4.0% 2.3%
Troy Carter
Market Model 95.2% 97.7%
TN-08 House winner? Kalshi
Republican party
Market Model 94.9% 97.8%
Democratic party
Market Model 5.0% 2.2%
Texas Senate: Exact outcome Kalshi
Cornyn beats Talarico
Market Model 39.0% 34.2%
Talarico beats Paxton
Market Model 25.0% 21.9%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 31.8%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Insurance Commissioner winner? Top outcome: John King | 26.0% | 43.2% | High | — | |
| Iowa Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Josh Turek | 48.0% | 49.3% | High | — | |
| Michigan Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Mike Rogers | 27.0% | 26.7% | High | — | |
| California Lieutenant Governor winner? Top outcome: Fiona Ma | 95.8% | 97.4% | High | — | |
| Iowa Senate margin of victory Top outcome: Hinson, 2+ pts | 40.0% | 30.3% | High | — | |
| 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Top outcome: Republicans sweep | 8.2% | 5.6% | High | — | |
| How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama? Top outcome: 2 | 34.0% | 36.8% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | 83 | ||
| California Governor winner? (Person) Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 3.4% | 3.4% | Med | — | |
| — | — | Med | 66 | ||
| Texas's 23rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Herrera, 17+ pts | 47.0% | 25.1% | High | — | |
| Oklahoma Attorney General winner? Top outcome: Jon Echols | 98.3% | 96.6% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho? Top outcome: Drug Legalization Authority Amendment | 4.0% | 1.4% | Med | — | |
| DE-AL Republican nominee? Top outcome: Joseph Arminio | 99.0% | 99.6% | High | — | |
| Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee? Top outcome: Aaron Guckian | 99.4% | 99.5% | High | — | |
| Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Top outcome: Republican Party | 53.0% | 51.8% | High | — | |
| Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026? Top outcome: Virginia Question 1 | 90.0% | 86.8% | Med | — | |
| LA-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Lauren Jewett | 16.0% | 98.9% | High | — | |
| Indiana Secretary of State winner? Top outcome: Max Engling | 29.0% | 23.4% | Med | — | |
| MO-02 House winner? Top outcome: Ann Wagner | 79.0% | 83.0% | Med | — | |
| Which party will win the U.S. House? Top outcome: Republican Party | 17.0% | 14.9% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| California Governor primary: 1st place Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 0.8% | 0.0% | High | — | |
| SC-01 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Mark Smith | 62.0% | 60.9% | High | — | |
| Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner Top outcome: Karen Bass | 99.0% | 100.0% | High | — | |
| California Governor primary advancers? (Party) Top outcome: 1 Democrat and 1 Republican | 87.0% | 84.8% | Med | — | |
| Who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election? Top outcome: Spencer Pratt | 36.0% | 52.5% | Med | — | |
| Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory Top outcome: Ken Paxton, 20%+ | 99.8% | 99.9% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| CA-40 primary advancers? Top outcome: Esther Kim Varet | 39.0% | 26.0% | Med | — | |
| Who will advance from the CA-22 primary? Top outcome: Jasmeet Bains | 61.0% | 50.0% | Med | — | |
| ND-AL Republican nominee? Top outcome: Alex Balazs | 5.0% | 3.9% | High | — | |
| New York Attorney General winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 94.0% | 96.8% | High | — | |
| Who will win the Attorney General race in Nebraska? Top outcome: Republican party | 95.2% | 95.6% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Louisiana Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jamie Davis | 86.0% | 85.0% | High | — | |
| Who will win the Attorney General race in Idaho? Top outcome: Republican party | 96.0% | 95.0% | High | — | |
| Connecticut Attorney General winner? Top outcome: Democratic party | 94.5% | 92.8% | High | — | |
| IN-04 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 92.7% | 96.5% | High | — | |
| California Governor Primary margin of victory Top outcome: Steve Hilton, 3+ pts | 19.0% | 11.1% | High | — | |
| Voter turnout for the Virginia redistricting referendum? Top outcome: Above 3.0M | 5.1% | 20.1% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Pennsylvania's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 10.0% | 10.4% | High | — | |
| Pennsylvania's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 5+ pts | 16.0% | 8.0% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| IN-05 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 84.0% | 87.8% | High | — | |
| Kentucky's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 3+ pts | 75.0% | 57.9% | High | — | |
| Which Georgia primary elections will have a first-round winner? Top outcome: Senate Republican primary | 25.0% | 13.7% | Med | — | |
| TX-18 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Christian Menefee | 94.3% | 95.6% | High | — | |
| Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee? Top outcome: Diego Morales | 81.0% | 47.9% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Who will advance from the CA-11 primary? Yes refers to: Marie Hurabiell | 5.0% | 1.1% | Med | — | |
| TX-33 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Colin Allred | 79.0% | 82.5% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| West Virginia Democratic Senate nominee? Top outcome: Jeff Kessler | 87.0% | 83.6% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| TX-38 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Jon Bonck | 98.6% | 97.8% | High | — | |
| — | — | Low | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Georgia Democratic Attorney General nominee? Top outcome: Bob Trammell | 6.3% | 18.0% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| MT-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Busse | 56.0% | 53.6% | High | — | |
| NY-07 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Antonio Reynoso | 24.0% | 26.3% | High | — | |
| Tennessee Democratic Governor nominee? Top outcome: Jerri Green | 86.0% | 76.7% | High | — | |
| Newark Mayor winner? Top outcome: Ras Baraka | 96.5% | 94.3% | High | — | |
| IN-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: J.D. Ford | 92.2% | 87.2% | Med | — | |
| CA-14 special election winner Top outcome: Aisha Wahab | 72.0% | 60.2% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| 2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory? Top outcome: Mejia, 24% and above | 0.3% | 1.3% | High | — | |
| MA-05 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Katherine Clark | 88.0% | 99.8% | High | — | |
| Georgia: Which elections will be won outright? Top outcome: Governor | 76.0% | 65.0% | Med | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026? Top outcome: 5 or more | 22.0% | 22.9% | High | — | |
| PA-07 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Ryan Crosswell | 27.0% | 32.7% | High | — | |
| Los Angeles mayor matchup Top outcome: Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass | 62.0% | 53.5% | Med | — | |
| NY-13 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Darializa Avila Chevalier | 47.0% | 21.2% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Who will lead the next qualifying poll in the California governor's race? Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 59.0% | 55.6% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | 81 | ||
| OH-09 Republican nominee? Top outcome: Derek Merrin | 86.0% | 88.0% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Virginia redistricting referendum margin of victory? Top outcome: Yes, 0-3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | Med | — | |
| SC-01 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Nancy Lacore | 81.0% | 69.2% | High | — | |
| LA-02 Democratic nominee? Top outcome: Renada Collins | 4.0% | 2.3% | High | — | |
| TN-08 House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 94.9% | 97.8% | High | — | |
| Texas Senate: Exact outcome Top outcome: Cornyn beats Talarico | 39.0% | 34.2% | Med | — | |
| Democratic Senate primaries: progressives sweep? Yes refers to: Yes | 43.0% | 31.8% | Med | — |
