Colorado's 4th District margin of victory
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: Republicans winning by 2 or more points in Colorado's 4th District at 28.2% model vs 0.0% market, suggesting the market may be entirely discounting this outcome.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This prediction market for the Republican margin of victory in Colorado's 4th District has experienced a significant upward trend. The market opened with a price of 2.0% and is currently at 55.0%. The defining price action was a dramatic 57.0 percentage point spike on May 06, 2026, when the probability surged from 3.0% to a peak of 60.0%. Since reaching that peak, the price has slightly retreated to its current level. This movement fundamentally reshaped the market from one pricing in a narrow Republican victory as a low-probability event to one considering it the most likely outcome.
The provided context does not offer a clear explanation for the massive price spike, noting that no significant social media events from key figures were identified that would account for the move. Critically, the market has a total traded volume of zero contracts across all data points. This lack of volume is the most important technical factor. It indicates that the price changes are not the result of buying and selling pressure from market participants. Without any trading activity, the price movements do not reflect market conviction or a consensus formed through transactions.
Due to the zero-volume environment, standard technical indicators like support and resistance levels are not meaningful. The key price points are simply the floor around 2.0-3.0%, the peak at 60.0%, and the current price of 55.0%. While the current price level implies a high degree of confidence in a Republican victory of two points or more, the complete absence of trading volume suggests this sentiment is not supported by any financial commitment from traders. The chart reflects a stated probability rather than a price discovered through active market participation.
- Boebert's 2024 victory margin was narrower than historical Republican district performance.
- A strong, well-funded Democratic challenger appears active for the 2026 race.
- Boebert's 2024 win by 11.6 percentage points was below higher margin thresholds.
- Eileen Laubacher is confirmed as the Democrats' uncontested nominee for CO-04.
- The Colorado 4th District demonstrates a strong Republican lean overall.
- The next general election for Colorado's 4th District is scheduled for Nov 3, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 11+ pts | 21.0% | 28.2% | Lauren Boebert's 2024 victory margin was 11.6 points; a competitive 2026 challenger appears active. |
| Republicans, 14+ pts | 8.4% | 18.6% | Lauren Boebert's 2024 general election win was 11.6 points, below this margin threshold. |
| Republicans, 2+ pts | 0.0% | 28.2% | Boebert's 2024 victory margin was narrower than historical performance; a 2026 Democratic challenger appears competitive. |
| Republicans, 5+ pts | 0.0% | 28.2% | Boebert's 2024 victory margin was narrower than historical performance; a 2026 Democratic challenger appears competitive. |
| Republicans, 8+ pts | 0.0% | 28.2% | Boebert's 2024 victory margin was narrower than historical performance; a 2026 Democratic challenger appears competitive. |
Current Context
Colorado's 4th District consistently votes Republican. This district encompasses eastern Colorado and Denver exurbs such as Highlands Ranch, Loveland, and Castle Rock [1]. Identified by a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+9, it is the most Republican district in the state [1]. Major election handicappers, including Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, consistently rate it as "Solid/Safe Republican" [2]. Incumbent Ken Buck (R) won his 2022 reelection against Ike McCorkle (D) by 24.38 percentage points, securing 60.94% of the vote to McCorkle's 36.56% [3][4][5]. Buck also secured his 2020 reelection bid against McCorkle and other challengers, with his final two terms before resignation being won by approximately 24 percentage points [6][7].
Ken Buck's resignation prompted a special election and 2024 primaries. Buck resigned from his seat on March 22, 2024 [8][9][10]. This triggered both a special election to fill the remainder of his term and primary elections for the full term beginning in January 2025, with both events held on June 25, 2024 [8][9][10][2]. In the special election, Republican Greg Lopez secured a substantial victory, defeating Democrat Trisha Calvarese by a 24-point margin, garnering 58.4% of the vote to Calvarese's 34.4% [8][9][11]. For the full term, Lauren Boebert won the Republican primary, while Trisha Calvarese advanced from the Democratic primary [3][2][12][13].
Lauren Boebert won the 2024 general election by 11.6 percentage points. The general election for the full term took place on November 5, 2024, where Lauren Boebert (R) secured the victory [2][6]. Boebert defeated Democrat Trisha Calvarese with an 11.6 percentage point margin, receiving 53.6% of the vote compared to Calvarese's 42.0% [14][6][15]. Prior to the election, models had predicted a high likelihood of Boebert's success, indicating she had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Colorado 4th District general election [4].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 May 06, 2026: 57.0pp spike
Price increased from 3.0% to 60.0%
Outcome: Republicans, 2+ pts
What happened: No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified that would explain the 57.0 percentage point spike for "Republicans, 2+ pts" in Colorado's 4th District. While news on May 5-6, 2026, reported a group tied to Democratic leadership was funding a Colorado redistricting effort, the provided information explicitly states this does not connect to a pro-Republican margin spike [1]. Such an initiative would generally seek to benefit Democrats, making it an unlikely driver for a significant Republican surge. Consequently, a primary driver for this market movement is not evident from the available sources, and social media activity appears irrelevant.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A YES resolution occurs if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Colorado's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The margin of victory is calculated without rounding, based on vote percentages, and verified by official election authorities. The market will close after certified election results are published or by November 3, 2027, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 11+ pts | $0.21 | $0.82 | 21% |
| Republicans, 14+ pts | $0.08 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Republicans, 2+ pts | $0.62 | $0.45 | 0% |
| Republicans, 5+ pts | $0.50 | $0.57 | 0% |
| Republicans, 8+ pts | $0.37 | $0.70 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Prediction market analysis for Colorado's 4th District indicated a Republican victory, with Polymarket traders showing a consensus around 65.5-66% for the Republican winner [1]. Although Kalshi offers a dedicated market for CO-04 margin of victory based on thresholds like "Republicans, 5+ pts," detailed trader discussions or explicit predictions regarding the specific margin were sparse in retrieved sources [2]. The actual election results, reported on November 5, 2024, showed Lauren Boebert (R) winning with 53.6% to Trisha Calvarese (D) with 42.0%, a margin of +11.6 percentage points for the Republican candidate [3].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score86Strong
Trade quality20% of score36High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score76Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How did Lauren Boebert’s 2024 victory margin compare to historical Republican performance in Colorado's 4th District?
| Lauren Boebert 2024 Margin | +11.6 percentage points (R) [1] |
|---|---|
| Ken Buck 2022 Margin | +24.3 percentage points (R) [2] |
| Ken Buck 2020 Margin | +23.5 percentage points (R) [3][4] |
Lauren Boebert's 2024 victory margin was notably narrower than recent historical performance. Boebert won Colorado's 4th Congressional District with 53.6% of the vote, defeating Trisha Calvarese (D), who received 42.0% [1]. This resulted in a Republican margin of +11.6 percentage points [1]. This outcome represents a significant decrease in the Republican advantage compared to previous cycles; specifically, the 2024 margin was approximately 11.9 points narrower than the 2020 margin and about 12.7 points narrower than the 2022 margin in the district [1][3][2].
Previous elections saw Republican candidates secure significantly wider victory margins. In 2022, Ken Buck (R) won the district with 60.9% of the vote against Ike McCorkle (D), who received 36.6%, yielding a +24.3-point Republican margin [2]. Similarly, in 2020, Ken Buck (R) also achieved a substantial lead, securing 60.1% of the vote compared to Ike McCorkle (D)'s 36.6%, which translated to a +23.5-point Republican margin [3][4].
Sources (4)
- 1Colorado's 4th Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Colorado U.S. House - District 4 Election Results | Fort Collins Coloradoancoloradoan.com
- 3Colorado's 4th Congressional District election, 2020 - Ballotpediadocker.ballotpedia.org
- 4Colorado U.S. House - District 4 Election Results | Tallahassee Democrattallahassee.com
7. What is the profile of a potential 2026 Democratic challenger who could narrow the typical Republican margin?
| Nominee Status | Uncontested Democratic nominee for CO-04 (2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Total Fundraising | Nearly $8.5 million since announcing [2] |
| District PVI | R+9 (Cook Partisan Voter Index) [3] |
Eileen Laubacher is positioned as a strong Democratic challenger for Colorado’s 4th District. She is confirmed as the Democrats’ uncontested nominee in the primary, setting her to challenge incumbent Rep. Lauren Boebert in the 2026 election [1]. Laubacher brings a robust professional background, having served 34 years in the U.S. Navy and held the role of Senior Director for South Asia on the National Security Council, where she was also a Special Assistant to the President [4][5]. She retired in October 2024 before returning to Colorado [4][5].
Laubacher demonstrates strong financial capability despite the district’s Republican lean. Her campaign has shown significant financial capacity, raising over $2.1 million in the first three months leading up to March 31, 2026, and accumulating nearly $8.5 million in total since announcing her candidacy [2]. This impressive fundraising indicates her ability to compete financially in what is typically a challenging district for Democrats [2]. Colorado’s 4th District holds a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, underscoring its strong Republican inclination [3].
Sources (5)
- 1Laubacher will run uncontested in Democratic primary looking to unseat Boebert | Colorado Newslinecoloradonewsline.com
- 2Boebert challenger Eileen Laubacher, Republican Gabe Evans lead Colorado’s quarterly House fundraisingcoloradopolitics.com
- 3Colorado's 4th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4Rear Admiral Eileen Laubachernavy.mil
- 5About — Rear Admiral Eileen Laubacher | Democrat for Congresseileenforcolorado.com
8. How do Lauren Boebert's policy positions align with the key voter demographics of the 4th District?
| Cook Partisan Voting Index CO-04 | R+9 [1] |
|---|---|
| CO-04 Population White | 75.8% [1] |
| CO-04 Population Hispanic | 13.6% [1] |
Lauren Boebert strategically moved to Colorado's 4th District, aligning with its conservative base. This decision was a calculated effort to secure her reelection by leveraging the district's deeply conservative voter demographic [2][3][4][1]. Recognized as Colorado's most Republican district, it holds a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+9 [1]. Its population is predominantly White (75.8%) and includes 13.6% Hispanic residents, covering the rural Eastern Plains and portions of the Colorado Front Range, notably the highly Republican Douglas County [1]. Boebert's established far-right policy positions are expected to resonate strongly with these conservative voters [1][2].
Boebert's conservative platform addresses gun rights, fiscal policy, energy, and border security. She is a staunch advocate for gun rights, co-chairing the Second Amendment Caucus and opposing measures such as red flag laws and expanded background checks [4][5][3]. On fiscal matters, she promotes reduced government regulation, advocates for spending cuts to combat inflation, supports small businesses, and aims to decrease federal bureaucracy [5]. Her energy stance backs an "all-of-the-above" domestic energy strategy and opposes a transition to green energy, which aligns with rural interests concerned about federal overreach [5][4]. Additionally, Boebert is a vocal proponent of robust border security, endorsing the construction of a border wall, ending "catch and release" policies, increasing deportations, and has introduced legislation like the "Build the Wall and Deport Them All Act" [3][6].
Her social stances and Trump allegiance resonate with the district's voters. Boebert holds strong anti-abortion views, believing life begins at conception and supporting legislation such as the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act [4][7][5][3]. She also opposes gender-affirming surgery for minors and same-sex marriage, and has expressed strong anti-LGBTQ sentiments, positions that generally align with socially conservative voters, despite her stated support for states making their own decisions on abortion rights [4][7][3]. Furthermore, she is a strong ally and supporter of Donald Trump, having supported his claims regarding the 2020 election, and her emphasis on "free and fair elections that are secure, lawful, and constitutional" appeals to voters concerned about election integrity [4][7][5].
9. What public polling data is available for the 2026 CO-4 race, and how accurate were 2024 forecasts?
| 2026 CO-4 Race Ratings (as of 2026-05-10) | Solid Republican / Safe Republican (The Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball) [1] |
|---|---|
| 2024 CO-4 Predicted Winner Chance (The Hill + DDHQ) | >99% chance for Lauren Boebert [2] |
| 2024 CO-4 Actual Margin of Victory | 11.6 percentage points (Lauren Boebert 53.6% vs. Trisha Calvarese 42.0%) [3][4] |
Public polling data for the 2026 CO-4 race remains limited. Beyond general race ratings, specific public polling data for the 2026 Colorado's 4th Congressional District election is not readily available. As of May 10, 2026, Ballotpedia displayed "Solid Republican" or "Safe Republican" ratings for the district from several outlets, including The Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball [1]. The Hill/DDHQ’s entry for 2026 was marked as “Pending,” indicating no published district poll or trend table was available at that time [1]. Kalshi also maintains separate market contracts related to the 2026 Colorado's 4th District margin of victory [5][6].
Forecasts accurately predicted the winner of the 2024 CO-4 race. For the 2024 CO-4 election, forecasts correctly identified the winning candidate. The Hill + DDHQ’s archived forecast assigned Lauren Boebert a ">99% chance of winning," categorizing the district as safe Republican [2]. Lauren Boebert ultimately won the 2024 election with 53.6% of the vote, defeating Trisha Calvarese, who received 42.0%, resulting in an 11.6 percentage-point margin of victory [3][4]. However, the research does not specify the predicted margin of victory from The Hill + DDHQ’s 2024 forecast or The Economist’s model for direct comparison to the actual margin [7].
Sources (7)
- 1Colorado's 4th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Who will win Colorado 4? | The Hill and DDHQelections2024.thehill.com
- 3Colorado House District 4 Election 2024 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
- 42024 Election Results for Colorado -- RightDataUSA.comrightdatausa.com
- 5Colorado's 4th District margin of victory Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
- 6Colorado's 4th District margin of victory Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
- 7Colorado's 4th districteconomist.com
10. What do recent voter registration trends suggest about the partisan lean of Colorado's 4th District?
| CO-04 Unaffiliated Voters | 46% (Apr 1, 2024) [1] |
|---|---|
| CO-04 Republican Voters | 35% (Apr 1, 2024) [1] |
| Trump Support in CO-04 | nearly 60% (2024 election) [2] |
Colorado's 4th Congressional District (CO-04) demonstrates a strong Republican lean despite a significant unaffiliated voter base. As of April 1, 2024, unaffiliated voters constitute a plurality of the electorate at 46%. However, Republicans form the largest partisan bloc at 35%, considerably outnumbering Democrats, who comprise 17% [1]. This composition indicates a Republican partisan advantage within the district, even with a substantial number of unaligned voters [1]. Further analysis highlights CO-04 as the most Republican district in Colorado, with nearly 60% of district voters supporting Donald Trump in the 2024 election, compared to a statewide average of 43% [2].
Statewide trends show increasing unaffiliated voters, impacting future partisan margins. Broader Colorado-wide voter registration data since 2024 indicates that the growth of unaffiliated voters is outpacing losses for both major parties. Republicans have experienced an approximate total decline of 1.7% statewide and a 16% drop among 18–24 year olds, while Democrats have seen a decline of about 3.7% [3]. These statewide shifts suggest that CO-04's established Republican lean may not directly translate into larger two-party margins as the electorate increasingly consists of unaffiliated voters [3].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
A key catalyst for the Colorado’s 4th District election cycle is the scheduled election timeline. Colorado’s 4th District does not have a U.S. House election scheduled for 2027-11-03 in the sourced materials; 2027 U.S. elections are described as largely held on Nov 2, 2027, while CO-04’s next scheduled House general election in sources is Nov 3, 2026 [1][2]. Key CO-04 election dates in the sourced materials are primaries on June 30, 2026 and the general election on Nov 3, 2026 [2][3].
Market probabilities show volatility, as related Polymarket “CO-04 House Election Winner” odds are shown as either near-even (Democratic 51% vs Republican 50%) on one Polymarket listing or Republican-favored (Republican ~66% vs Democratic ~25%) on another listing; this suggests volatile, information-sensitive pricing rather than a single steady outlook [4][5]. While prediction-market endpoints exist for “Colorado’s 4th District margin of victory” on Kalshi and Octagon AI, the retrieved snippets do not expose a current numeric margin bucket price; therefore a precise current margin-of-victory “bullish/bearish” line cannot be stated from the retrieved evidence alone [6][7].
A specific CO-04 fundraising catalyst is evidenced by a Colorado Politics report (Apr 23, 2026) stating that Boebert challenger Eileen Laubacher (Dem) and Republican Gabe Evans lead Colorado’s quarterly House fundraising, implying competitiveness and re-pricing pressure in the cycle [8].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (8)
- 12027 United States electionsen.wikipedia.org
- 2Colorado's 4th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3Colorado's 4th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4CO-04 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketworldcoin.polymarket.com
- 5CO-04 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 6Colorado's 4th District margin of victory Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
- 7Colorado's 4th District margin of victory Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
- 8Boebert challenger Eileen Laubacher, Republican Gabe Evans lead Colorado’s quarterly House fundraisingcoloradopolitics.com
