Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 74.0% 71.2%
Republicans, 29+ pts
Market Model 73.0% 70.2%
Topic tracker · Elections
Midterm margin of victory
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 71 so far (68 live, 3 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Midterm margin of victory markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated May 10, 2026
Live markets
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 7.3% 5.7%
Republicans, 30+ pts
Market Model 31.0% 27.0%
Republicans, 12+ pts
Market Model 79.0% 79.2%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 16.0% 16.3%
Democrats, 1+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 72.3%
Republicans, 10+ pts
Market Model 9.0% 5.2%
Republicans, 7+ pts
Market Model 8.9% 5.2%
Republicans, 11+ pts
Market Model 21.0% 28.2%
Republicans, 14+ pts
Market Model 8.4% 18.6%
Democrats, 58+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Democrats, 52+ pts
Market Model 35.0% 28.0%
Democrats, 9+ pts
Market Model 7.9% 5.0%
Democrats, 6+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 8.0%
Democrats, 51+ pts
Market Model 46.0% 30.0%
Democrats, 39+ pts
Market Model 98.6% 98.0%
Democrats, 25+ pts
Market Model 14.0% 14.3%
Democrats, 4+ pts
Market Model 90.5% 89.1%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 57.9%
Democrats, 14+ pts
Market Model 7.9% 4.6%
Republicans, 23+ pts
Market Model 30.0% 32.7%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 80.0% 80.2%
Democrats, 22+ pts
Market Model 92.2% 86.2%
Democrats, 31+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 38.6%
Democrats, 13+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 39.6%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 65.0% 50.3%
Republicans, 16+ pts
Market Model 55.0% 55.0%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 68.0% 69.5%
Republicans, 23+ pts
Market Model 59.0% 44.2%
Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 56.0% 41.4%
Democrats, 8+ pts
Market Model 8.4% 8.6%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 18.0% 17.9%
Democrats, 56+ pts
Market Model 89.0% 89.0%
Democrats, 80+ pts
Market Model 13.0% 2.0%
Democrats, 37+ pts
Market Model 83.0% 80.8%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 92.1% 90.9%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 61.0% 58.1%
Democrats, 13+ pts
Market Model 31.0% 30.2%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 10.4%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 22.0% 21.9%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 16.0% 8.0%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 9.8% 4.9%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 92.6% 95.0%
Democrats, 58+ pts
Market Model 8.6% 7.0%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 89.0% 81.1%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 5.0%
Democrats, 37+ pts
Market Model 78.0% 75.4%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 81.0% 78.6%
Democrats, 35+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 2.0%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 10.0%
Republicans, 22+ pts
Market Model 48.0% 35.9%
Republicans, 28+ pts
Market Model 38.0% 25.0%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 43.0% 41.1%
Democrats, 3+ pts
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Democrats, 6+ pts
Market Model 14.0% 10.8%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 57.9%
Republicans, 6+ pts
Market Model 62.0% 43.2%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 44.0% 24.6%
Republicans, 2+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 32.2%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 87.0% 88.0%
Republicans, 15+ pts
Market Model 73.0% 74.9%
Democrats, 9+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 6.4%
Democrats, 3+ pts
Market Model 35.0% 21.2%
Democrats, 18+ pts
Market Model 88.0% 91.4%
Democrats, 21+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 81.4%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 88.0% 100.0%
Republicans, 37+ pts
Market Model 9.9% 0.0%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 28.0% 16.6%
Republicans, 6+ pts
Market Model 19.0% 11.1%
Democrats, 38+ pts
Market Model 8.3% 10.1%
Democrats, 20+ pts
Market Model 61.0% 62.0%
Democrats, 38+ pts
Market Model 27.0% 17.9%
Democrats, 26+ pts
Market Model 46.0% 29.2%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 26.0% 20.0%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 9.3% 7.3%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 48.0% 38.0%
Republicans, 15+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 7.8%
Democrats, 19+ pts
Market Model 12.0% 8.7%
Democrats, 22+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 8.7%
Republicans, 10+ pts
Market Model 90.0% 93.0%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 23.0% 17.7%
Republicans, 14+ pts
Market Model 51.0% 54.6%
Republicans, 60+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 20.6%
Republicans, 36+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 20.6%
Yes
Market Model 7.1% 5.3%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 7.8% 6.1%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 7.0% 5.5%
Democrats, 30+ pts
Market Model 90.4% 87.3%
Democrats, 33+ pts
Market Model 86.0% 81.8%
Democrats, 1+ pts
Market Model 76.0% 59.2%
Democrats, 7+ pts
Market Model 51.0% 32.5%
Democrats, 1+ pts
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Democrats, 4+ pts
Market Model 7.6% 5.9%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 10.5%
Democrats, 31+ pts
Market Model 91.0% 91.7%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 84.0% 85.2%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 7.4% 4.9%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 4.9% 3.2%
Yes
Market Model 8.9% 6.1%
Democrats, 4+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 11.4%
Democrats, 7+ pts
Market Model 4.0% 4.3%
Democrats, 28+ pts
Market Model 95.1% 95.0%
Democrats, 52+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 20.0%
Democrats, 14+ pts
Market Model 39.0% 73.1%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 90.0% 95.0%
Democrats, 27+ pts
Market Model 91.4% 90.1%
Democrats, 51+ pts
Market Model 9.0% 10.0%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 12.0%
Democrats, 26+ pts
Market Model 92.1% 90.0%
Democrats, 44+ pts
Market Model 30.0% 3.1%
Republicans, 1+ pts
Market Model 90.5% 89.1%
Republicans, 4+ pts
Market Model 82.0% 79.7%
Republicans, 11+ pts
Market Model 50.0% 58.0%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 61.0% 68.0%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 44.0% 38.2%
Republicans, 1+ pts
Market Model 80.0% 74.6%
Democrats, 4+ pts
Market Model 17.0% 9.9%
Democrats, 1+ pts
Market Model 32.0% 19.2%
Republicans, 18+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 11.4%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 43.0% 41.1%
Republicans, 7+ pts
Market Model 12.0% 7.0%
Republicans, 4+ pts
Market Model 18.0% 10.5%
Republicans, 1+ pts
Market Model 85.0% 75.1%
Republicans, 4+ pts
Market Model 77.0% 64.2%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 80.0% 85.3%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 65.0% 73.3%
Republicans, 10+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 0.1%
Republicans, 12+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 0.1%
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Governor Primary margin of victory | November 3, 2027 | 13.5% vs 23.0% | Report → |
| California Governor Primary margin of victory | November 3, 2027 | 21.9% vs 36.0% | Report → |
| California Governor Primary margin of victory | November 3, 2027 | 12.3% vs 0.0% | Report → |
