Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Republicans to win Maine's 2nd District by 3 or more points, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market experienced a dramatic upward price movement, indicating a significant shift in trader sentiment. The probability started at a negligible 1.0% before surging to a high of 45.0%. This rapid repricing likely reflects the market's reaction to the extremely narrow 2024 election results. The provided context shows that the Democratic candidate secured victory by a margin of only 0.5% in a district that has a Republican lean and where Donald Trump reportedly won by 9.5%. Traders appear to have interpreted this close call as a strong signal that a Republican victory is a very plausible outcome in a future election, causing the market's probability estimate to jump substantially.
The price action was supported by a significant burst of trading volume, with 143 contracts traded during the sharp increase to 45.0%. This concentration of volume suggests strong conviction behind the initial re-evaluation of the race. Since reaching that peak, the price has settled slightly to 43.0%, establishing a potential resistance level at 45.0%. The current price suggests the market views the race as highly competitive, nearly a toss-up. Overall, the chart reflects a sentiment that has moved from dismissing the possibility of a Republican win to viewing it as a substantial likelihood, based almost entirely on the razor-thin margin of the preceding election cycle.
  • Maine's 2nd District exhibits a clear Republican electoral advantage.
  • Paul LePage appears to hold a narrow lead in recent polling data.
  • LePage also reported strong fundraising totals and cash on hand.
  • President Trump's low approval may limit the Republican margin.
  • Ranked-Choice Voting could activate if no candidate reaches 50%.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Republicans, 9+ pts 20.0% 20.1% The strong Republican lean and candidate advantages suggest a substantial margin of victory.
Republicans, 3+ pts 43.0% 41.1% Polling data shows the Republican candidate with a narrow lead, suggesting a margin of 3+ points.
Republicans, 6+ pts 32.0% 31.1% The district's Republican lean and candidate advantages support a significant margin of victory.
Republicans, 12+ pts 0.0% 0.7% Narrow polling leads and Trump's low approval ratings make very wide Republican margins less certain.

Current Context

Maine's 2nd Congressional District narrowly favored Democrats in 2024. In 2024, Representative Golden secured victory with 197,151 votes (50.2%) against Theriault's 194,445 votes (49.7%), a difference of 2,706 votes after ranked-choice voting [1][2]. This outcome occurred in a district with a Republican+4 Partisan Voting Index (PVI), where Donald Trump won by 9.5% in 2024 [3][4].
The 2026 primaries are shaping up with distinct leading candidates. On the Democratic side, Joe Baldacci is emerging as a frontrunner, receiving 36% in early polling and securing backing from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) amidst a field including Dunlap (14%), Wood (12%), and Loud [5][6][7]. For Republicans, former Governor Paul LePage is strongly favored, commanding 92% on prediction markets compared to Clark's 8%, and has received a Trump endorsement [8][9].
Early polling and prediction markets suggest a Republican advantage for 2026. A University of New Hampshire poll from February 2026 indicates LePage holds a slight lead over all potential Democratic candidates, ranging from 1 to 4 percentage points within the margin of error [10][11]. Prediction markets, such as Manifold, currently show a 73% probability that Republicans will gain Maine's 2nd Congressional District in November 2026 [4].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Theriault ends recount, confirming Golden’s win in Maine’s 2nd Congressional Districtmainemorningstar.com
  2. 2Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Will the Republicans Gain Maine´s 2nd Congressional District in 2026 | Manifoldmanifold.markets
  5. 5Joe Baldacci wins backing of national Democratic committee in 2nd District primarymainepublic.org
  6. 6National Democrats back Joe Baldacci in crowded Maine 2nd District primarybangordailynews.com
  7. 7Baldacci leads Democratic contenders in 2nd CD racespectrumlocalnews.com
  8. 8Will Paul LePage Win the ME-02 Republican Primary?lines.com
  9. 9ME-02 Republican Primary Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketbase.polymarket.com
  10. 10Poll shows LePage with slight edge in race for Maine's 2nd Congressional Districtwgme.com
  11. 112026 Polls: Maine House District 2 - 270toWin270towin.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Maine's 2nd District by 3 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on May 5, 2026, and closes after the outcome occurs, with a final deadline of November 3, 2027, if certified election results are not published earlier. The margin of victory is calculated as the difference in vote percentages without rounding, and the outcome is verified by the official election authority.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Republicans, 3+ pts $0.44 $0.57 43%
Republicans, 6+ pts $0.33 $0.68 32%
Republicans, 9+ pts $0.21 $0.80 20%
Republicans, 12+ pts $0.12 $0.89 0%

Market Discussion

Former Governor Paul LePage is the presumptive Republican nominee for Maine's 2nd District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+4 that former President Donald Trump carried by a 9.5 percentage point margin in 2024 [1][2]. While political forecasters currently rate the 2026 general election as "Likely Republican" or "Lean Republican," the outgoing Democratic incumbent narrowly won re-election in 2024 by less than one percent [3][4][1][2][5]. A hypothetical poll from December 2025 showed a contest within the margin of error, suggesting the race could be close despite expectations of a Republican victory [6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2ellisinsight.com
  3. 3cookpolitical.com
  4. 4ballotpedia.org
  5. 5kalshi.com
  6. 6punchbowl.news

4. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Sep 22, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 58 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score77Good

Market integrity is low (59), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score0Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score58Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity59
Outcome can be influencedCaution
Info fairness95
Structural prior — no screens applyStrong
Trade quality0
Order book is critically thinAvoid
Market integrity
59Caution

Outcome can be influenced

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“KXMIDTERMMOV ME02R P12” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Trade quality
0Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 5.0c slippage (~11% of a 45c contract)

$1,000 order: 36.7c slippage (~82% of a 45c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

LePage, 3+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
LePage, 6+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
LePage, 9+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 22, 2026

5. How do Paul LePage's and Joe Baldacci's post-primary fundraising totals and sources of funding compare for the 2026 general election?

Paul LePage Quarterly Fundraising$643,443 (as of March 31, 2026) [1][2]
Paul LePage Cash On Hand$1,335,520 (as of March 31, 2026) [1][2]
Joe Baldacci Quarterly Fundraising$317,060 (as of March 31, 2026) [2][3]
Paul LePage reported strong fundraising totals and substantial cash on hand. As of March 31, 2026, LePage, who announced his campaign in May 2025 and is unopposed in the Republican primary, raised $643,443 for the quarter and had $1,335,520 in cash on hand [1][2]. His campaign highlighted significant in-state support, with over 80% of his funding originating from within Maine [4][2][5]. Individual contributions represented 51.15% of his quarterly fundraising [4][2][5].
Joe Baldacci raised less, but his campaign relied heavily on individual contributions. Baldacci, who began his campaign in January 2026, reported quarterly committee fundraising of $317,060 and $148,940 cash on hand as of March 31, 2026 [2][3]. His campaign noted raising over $150,000 in the initial weeks of his candidacy [1]. Individual contributions made up a large majority of his quarterly fundraising at 97.35% [2]. Baldacci's fundraising totals also include a $35,500 loan he made to his own campaign, and these figures are from before the conclusion of the Democratic primary [6][1][2][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1pressherald.com
  2. 2quiverquant.com
  3. 3newscentermaine.com
  4. 4themainewire.com
  5. 5newscentermaine.com
  6. 6bangordailynews.com
  7. 7bangordailynews.com
  8. 8lines.com

6. What margin of victory do non-partisan election forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball project for Republicans in Maine's 2nd District for 2026?

District StatusOpen seat (following Rep. Jared Golden's retirement) [1][2][3]
Cook PVIR+4 [1][2][3]
Trump 2024 ME-02 Win Margin9.5% [2]
Maine's 2nd District exhibits a clear Republican electoral advantage. The 2026 election for Maine's 2nd Congressional District (ME-02) is projected to feature an open seat due to the retirement of incumbent Representative Jared Golden (D) [1][2][3]. This district demonstrates a Republican lean, evidenced by its Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+4 [1][2][3]. Further illustrating its political inclination, reports from 2024 indicate that Donald Trump secured a 9.5% victory margin in ME-02 [2].
Forecasters do not provide exact numerical victory margins for Republicans. Non-partisan election forecasting organizations, including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, have not published explicit numerical projections for a Republican margin of victory in Maine's 2nd District for 2026 [4][5][6][1]. These forecasters instead categorize the district as having a Republican lean, refraining from specifying a quantified victory margin [4][5][6][1].
Sources (6)
  1. 1ME-02 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  2. 2Will the Republicans Gain Maine´s 2nd Congressional District in 2026 | Manifoldmanifold.markets
  3. 3Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Golden’s Exit Moves ME-02 from Toss Up to Likely Republican | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  5. 52026 Rating Changes - Sabato's Crystal Ballcenterforpolitics.org
  6. 6Sabato's Crystal Ball 2026 House Ratings - 270toWin270towin.com

7. How might President Trump's national approval ratings in late 2026 impact Paul LePage's performance in a district Trump won by 9.5% in 2024?

Trump National Approval43% approval, 55% disapproval (April 2026) [1]
Trump Maine Approval38% (April 2026) [2]
LePage Poll Numbers47-48% vs Democrats 44-47% (February 2026) [3]
President Trump's low national and Maine approval ratings pose challenges for Maine Republicans. In April 2026, President Trump's national approval rating stood at 43% with 55% disapproval, and independent voters approved at 38% [1]. His approval in Maine was 38% during the same period, which has been cited as creating headwinds for Republicans in the state, potentially affecting Paul LePage's performance in Maine's 2nd Congressional District [1][2].
Despite these broader political headwinds, Paul LePage holds an early lead in a Republican-leaning district. An earlier February 2026 poll indicated LePage held a slight advantage in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, polling at 47-48% against Democrats at 44-47% [3]. This district has a history of leaning Republican, having voted Republican by 9.5 points in the 2024 cycle, aligning with Trump's 2024 margin of +9.5% [4][5]. The district is further characterized by a Cook PVI of R+4 and is currently an open seat rated Likely Republican, considered a top GOP pickup opportunity [6][7][4][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Trump Approval Rating 2026 — Monthly Tracker & Historical Comparison | USPollingData.comuspollingdata.com
  2. 2Donald Trump’s low Maine approval is making things hard for Susan Collinsbangordailynews.com
  3. 3Poll shows LePage with slight edge in race for Maine's 2nd Congressional Districtwgme.com
  4. 4Will the Republicans Gain Maine´s 2nd Congressional District in 2026 | Manifoldmanifold.markets
  5. 52026 United States House of Representatives elections in Maineen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 (June 9 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7Maine's 2nd congressional districten.wikipedia.org
  8. 8Golden’s Exit Moves ME-02 from Toss Up to Likely Republican | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com

8. What public polling data is available for the Maine's 2nd District 2026 House race, and how frequently are polls typically released for this district?

LePage vs. Baldacci (Feb 2026)LePage 48%, Baldacci 47% [1]
Democratic Primary (March 2026)Baldacci 36% [1]
LePage vs. Baldacci (Nov-Dec 2025)LePage 44%, Baldacci 43% [2]
Recent polls indicate a closely contested general election for Maine's 2nd District. Polling data for Maine's 2nd Congressional District's 2026 House race suggests a tight contest. A University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll conducted on February 24, 2026, among 522 likely voters, showed Republican LePage with a narrow lead over Democratic candidate Baldacci, 48% to 47%. The same poll also placed LePage ahead of Wood (D) 48% to 44%, and Dunlap (D) 48% to 46% [1]. An earlier Pan Atlantic omnibus poll, conducted from November 29 to December 7, 2025, similarly indicated a close race, with LePage at 44% and Baldacci at 43% among 387 likely voters [2]. These polls suggest releases are infrequent, with approximately three months separating the two general election surveys.
Democratic primary polling shows a frontrunner amidst an open seat context. In the Democratic primary, a Pan Atlantic Research poll from March 4, 2026, identified Baldacci as the frontrunner, securing 36% support among 144 likely voters. Dunlap followed with 14%, and Wood garnered 12% [1]. The primaries are scheduled for June 9, 2026, with the general election on November 3, 2026. This race is for an open seat, following the retirement of Jared Golden, and is currently rated as Likely/Lean Republican [3][4][5]. The available polling for both the primary and general elections appears limited in frequency, with polls typically released several months apart.
Sources (5)
  1. 12026 Polls: Maine House District 2 - 270toWin270towin.com
  2. 2https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/baldacci-poll.pdfpunchbowl.news
  3. 3Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 (June 9 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4ME-02 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  5. 5Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

9. What scenarios involving third-party candidates could trigger a Ranked-Choice Voting tabulation, and how did RCV impact the final margin in the 2024 ME-02 election?

Initial Lead (2024 ME-02)+2,159 votes (0.54%) [1][2][3]
Final Lead After RCV (2024 ME-02)+2,706 votes (0.70%) [1][2][3]
Minimum Vote to Trigger RCV0.1% (420 votes) [1][4][3][5]
Ranked-Choice Voting activates when no candidate secures 50% of votes. In Maine, Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV) tabulation is initiated in multi-candidate races if no single candidate obtains more than 50% of the total votes cast [6][5]. This threshold can be affected by the presence of third-party or write-in candidates, even if their vote share is as low as 0.1% (approximately 420 votes). When these smaller vote totals are combined with blank ballots, they can collectively prevent any candidate from achieving the necessary 50% majority, thereby triggering an RCV tabulation [1][4][3][5].
The 2024 ME-02 election demonstrates RCV's impact on final margins. This election served as an example where the RCV process significantly altered the final outcome. Prior to the RCV tabulation, the candidate who eventually won held an initial lead of 2,159 votes, which constituted 0.54% of the total votes [1][2][3]. Following the RCV process, which involved redistributing voter preferences from eliminated candidates, this lead expanded to 2,706 votes, increasing the final margin to 0.70% [1][2][3]. Blank first-choice ballots also played a role in the ultimate vote count for this election, as historically 6-9% of such ballots are found to have valid second preferences that contribute to the final tally [1].
Sources (6)
  1. 1FairVote analysis of ranked choice voting count in Maine’s 2nd congressional district - FairVotefairvote.org
  2. 2Golden wins ranked-choice runoff in Maine's 2nd Congressional District | Maine Publicmainepublic.org
  3. 3Ranked-Choice Voting Tabulation Announced for Maine Congressional District 2 | SOSmaine.gov
  4. 4Maine 2nd Congressional District election results: 2024 breakdownwmtw.com
  5. 5What to know about the ranked-choice tabulation for Maine’s 2nd Congressional race • Maine Morning Starmainemorningstar.com
  6. 6Ranked-Choice Voting Frequently Asked Questions | SOSmaine.gov

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The open seat for Maine's 2nd Congressional District (ME-02) is currently rated Likely R by Cook/Inside as of Mar 2026 and Lean R by Sabato [1][2]. Prediction markets reflect this outlook, with Manifold showing a 73% chance that Republicans will gain the seat [3]. This aligns with the district's characteristics, where Trump won by +9.5% in 2024 and the PVI is R+4, though Golden won by <1% [3].
Paul LePage (R) is expected to win the GOP primary, with a 92% chance on Polymarket [4]. The primary elections for the district are scheduled for June 9, 2026, followed by the general election on November 3, 2026, both using Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV) [3][5]. Active markets on Kalshi are also tracking the ME-02 party win and margin equal to or greater than 3% [6][7][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (8)
  1. 1ME-02 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  2. 2Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Will the Republicans Gain Maine´s 2nd Congressional District in 2026 | Manifoldmanifold.markets
  4. 4ME-02 Republican Primary Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketbase.polymarket.com
  5. 5Maine's 2nd Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Maine's 2nd District margin of victory Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
  7. 7Maine's 2nd District margin of victory Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  8. 8Which party will win the House race for ME-02? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com