Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Democrats to win Illinois's 2nd District by 28 or more points, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market experienced a dramatic upward price movement early in its history, jumping from an initial price of 1.0% to a high of 96.1%. This immediate and significant repricing suggests the market quickly corrected to reflect the fundamental political landscape of Illinois's 2nd District. The provided context indicates the district has a strong Democratic lean, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+18 or D+19. This is further supported by recent election results where the Democratic candidate reportedly secured a victory with 67.6% of the vote. The initial low price was likely a placeholder before traders priced in this widely known information, causing the near-instantaneous surge to a high probability.
Since that initial spike, the price has stabilized and entered a tight trading range, with recent data points showing prices between 95.1% and 96.1%. These levels appear to be acting as short-term support and resistance, respectively. The total traded volume of 2,002 contracts suggests moderate engagement, but the price stability indicates a strong consensus has been reached. The market sentiment is unequivocally confident in a large Democratic margin of victory, with the current price of 95.1% reflecting a deeply entrenched belief among participants that the election outcome is not in doubt, aligning perfectly with the district's historical voting patterns.
  • The district maintains a D+18/19 PVI, suggesting a strong Democratic lean.
  • Official data indicates a high probability for a large Democratic margin.
  • Non-partisan forecasters overwhelmingly favor Democrats for the 2026 race.
  • The 2024 election secured a 35.2-point Democratic margin of victory.
  • National or local events before November 2026 could shift the margin.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Democrats, 28+ pts 95.1% 95.0% Official data indicates a large Democratic margin is likely in the strongly Democratic D+18/19 district.
Democrats, 52+ pts 11.0% 20.0% Official data indicates a large Democratic margin is likely in the strongly Democratic D+18/19 district.
Democrats, 31+ pts 0.0% 28.6% Official data indicates a large Democratic margin is likely in the strongly Democratic D+18/19 district.
Democrats, 34+ pts 0.0% 28.6% Official data indicates a large Democratic margin is likely in the strongly Democratic D+18/19 district.
Democrats, 37+ pts 0.0% 28.6% Official data indicates a large Democratic margin is likely in the strongly Democratic D+18/19 district.

Current Context

Illinois's 2nd District strongly favors Democrats, evidenced by past results. The district consistently demonstrates a strong Democratic preference, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index (PVI) rating of D+18 or D+19 [1][2][3]. In the 2024 general election, the Democratic candidate secured a significant victory, receiving 195,777 votes (67.6%) compared to the Republican candidate's 94,004 votes (32.4%) [4][5][1]. This resulted in a substantial winning margin of 101,773 votes, equating to 35.2% [4][5][1].
The 2026 election features new candidates and strong Democratic projections. Primaries for the upcoming election were held on March 17, 2026, with the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [2][6]. The Democratic nominee is Donna Miller, a Cook County Commissioner, who will challenge Republican Mike Noack, identified as a trucker [6][7][8][9]. Current market predictions and expert analyses project a strong likelihood of a Democratic win; Polymarket shows a 93% probability for the Democratic candidate, and experts rate the race as "Solid D" [6][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 (March 17 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Illinois' 2nd Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 42024 IL General Election Results - U.S. House District 2sj-r.com
  5. 5Illinois 2nd District election results 2024 live updates | The Washington Postwashingtonpost.com
  6. 6Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7Democrat Donna Miller to face Republican Mike Noack in 2nd Congressional District racedigital-release.wgntv.com
  8. 8A Voice For Working Families in IL-2 - Mike Noack For Congressnoack4congress.com
  9. 9Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller projected to win Illinois 2nd Congressional District primary, ending Jesse Jackson Jr. comeback bid - CBS Chicagocbsnews.com
  10. 10IL-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Illinois's 2nd District by 40 percentage points or more. Conversely, it resolves to NO if the Democratic Party wins by less than 40 percentage points, loses, or ties.

The margin is calculated as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the next highest candidate, with no rounding applied. Resolution is verified by the official election authority, and the market closes after the outcome occurs, potentially early with certified results, or by November 3, 2027, at the latest.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Democrats, 28+ pts $0.95 $0.05 95%
Democrats, 52+ pts $0.11 $0.90 11%
Democrats, 31+ pts $0.87 $0.14 0%
Democrats, 34+ pts $0.75 $0.26 0%
Democrats, 37+ pts $0.65 $0.36 0%
Democrats, 40+ pts $0.55 $0.46 0%
Democrats, 43+ pts $0.44 $0.57 0%
Democrats, 46+ pts $0.33 $0.68 0%
Democrats, 49+ pts $0.22 $0.79 0%

Market Discussion

Donna Miller (D) won the Democratic primary on March 17, 2026, and is widely expected to secure the general election against unopposed Republican Mike Noack [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Prediction markets give Democrats a 92.5-94% chance of winning [4][5][6][7][8], with historical margins of 25-40+ points and market activity on a 40+ point Democratic victory suggesting expectations of a wide win for Miller [4][9][7][10][11].

Sources (11)
  1. 1IL-02 Democratic Primary Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  2. 2Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 (March 17 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Who is running for the U.S. House in Illinois' 2nd Congressional District? - CBS Chicagocbsnews.com
  4. 4Will Democrats Win the IL-02 House Race in 2026?lines.com
  5. 5IL-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  6. 6IL-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  7. 7IL-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  8. 8IL-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketbase.polymarket.com
  9. 9Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 (March 17 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  10. 10Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11Illinois's 2nd District margin of victory Odds & Predictionskalshi.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 82 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score94Strong
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score82Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
39Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

3 contracts · worst first · 6 below the volume floor — not scored

Miller, 52+ pts39
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Miller, 28+ pts—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Miller, 40+ pts—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

3 contracts · worst first · 6 below the volume floor — not scored

Miller, 28+ pts—
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Miller, 40+ pts—
No significant move (4d)

Price was stable over the last 4 days.

Miller, 52+ pts—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

3 contracts · worst first · 6 below the volume floor — not scored

Miller, 28+ pts100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Miller, 40+ pts100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Miller, 52+ pts100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
31High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 39 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 2.8c slippage (~3% of a 95.7c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

6 below the volume floor — not scored

Miller, 28+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Miller, 40+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (4d)

Price was stable over the last 4 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Miller, 52+ pts39Market scoreLiquidity39Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 39
Liquidity
39 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 25, 2026

5. How do historical election results in Illinois's 2nd District, particularly the 2024 margin, inform the baseline expectation for the 2026 general election?

Cook Partisan Voter IndexD+18 or D+19 (18 to 19 percentage points more Democratic than national average) [1][2]
2024 Democratic Margin63.8 percentage points [3]
2022 Democratic Margin36.6 percentage points [4]
Illinois's 2nd District consistently elects Democrats by significant margins. The district has reliably elected Democratic representatives, establishing a robust baseline for future elections. Its Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+18 or D+19 signifies it performs 18 to 19 percentage points more Democratic than the national average in presidential contests, underscoring the district's strong Democratic leaning [1][2][4].
Recent elections demonstrate overwhelming Democratic performance and widening margins. General election outcomes further illustrate this dominance. In 2020, the Democratic candidate secured a 57.62 percentage point margin [3]. This was followed by a 36.6 percentage point margin in 2022 [4]. The 2024 election solidified this trend, with incumbent Democrat Robin Kelly receiving 81.9% of the vote against Republican Ashley Ramos's 18.1%, resulting in an even larger margin of 63.8 percentage points [3].
Despite incumbent departure, 2026 baseline remains a strong Democratic victory. For the 2026 election, even with the departure of long-time incumbent Robin Kelly, who is not seeking re-election to pursue a Senate campaign, a substantial Democratic victory is anticipated [4][2]. Given the consistent and significant Democratic margins in prior elections, particularly the 63.8 percentage point margin in 2024, a strong Democratic win remains the expectation for the 2026 general election [1][2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1ballotpedia.org
  2. 2wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3cbsnews.com
  4. 4ballotpedia.org

6. What is the fundraising gap between Donna Miller and Mike Noack according to the latest 2026 FEC filings, and how does it compare to previous cycles in this district?

Donna Miller Total Receipts$1,971,084.99 (07/01/2025–02/25/2026) [1]
Donna Miller Total Disbursements$1,505,780.49 (07/01/2025–02/25/2026) [1]
Mike Noack FEC DataNot found [1][2]
Donna Miller's 2026 FEC filings report significant campaign receipts and disbursements. For her campaign in Illinois's 2nd Congressional District, Miller reported total receipts of $1,971,084.99 and total disbursements amounting to $1,505,780.49. These figures cover the period from July 1, 2025, through February 25, 2026 [1].
A direct fundraising gap between candidates cannot be determined currently. Specifically, the latest 2026 FEC candidate summary and receipts for Mike Noack were not identified in the available research [1][2]. Consequently, a definitive fundraising gap between Donna Miller and Mike Noack cannot be calculated based on the available FEC receipts [1][2]. Furthermore, numerical comparisons of current fundraising data to previous election cycles in this district, based on FEC filings, are not available [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1MILLER, DONNA - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
  2. 2Mike Noack - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 32026 Election United States House - Illinois - District 02 | FECfec.gov

7. What potential national or local events before November 2026 could cause the final margin to deviate significantly from the district's D+19 PVI rating?

District PVI RatingD+19 [1][2]
Event TimelineBefore November 2026 [1]
Primary Deviation DriversNational shocks, policy changes, or local controversies [1][2]
The IL-2 district's strong Democratic lean could shift before November 2026. The final margin in Illinois' 2nd congressional district could significantly deviate from its D+19 PVI rating due to potential national or local events occurring before the November 2026 election [1][2]. Given the district's inherent Democratic lean, substantial deviations are most likely to stem from incidents that foster candidate-specific distrust, modify voter turnout, or cause a sharp shift in the national political environment against the Democratic Party [3][4][5].
National developments could significantly alter 2026 midterm expectations and district outcomes. Major national "game-changing" events, such as significant policy and economic developments or broader shocks, have the potential to move the IL-2 margin away from its PVI handicap [1]. These could include shifts in economic factors like inflation, tariffs, labor markets, or home prices, or the timing of Medicaid cuts, all of which can collectively impact voter sentiment [1]. Additionally, a Supreme Court decision affecting legal-redistricting could reshape competitive landscapes nationally and indirectly influence district-level margins in 2026 [6].
Local controversies, like endorsement withdrawals, can profoundly impact district margins. The IL-2 district has already experienced political controversy, notably when Rep. Jan Schakowsky withdrew her endorsement of Democratic nominee Donna Miller due to alleged AIPAC-linked support and super PAC activity [2]. If ongoing allegations concerning perceived AIPAC or affiliated funding and outside influence within the IL-2 cycle escalate, they could widen the general-election margin deviation from D+19 [2]. Such localized issues have the capacity to generate candidate-specific distrust or alter effective turnout, leading to significant deviations from the district’s strong Democratic lean [3][4][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1What history tells us about the 2026 midterm elections | Brookingsbrookings.edu
  2. 2Schakowsky withdraws Donna Miller endorsement in 2nd Congressional District over AIPAC support - Chicago Sun-Timeschicago.suntimes.com
  3. 3IL-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 4Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Illinois' 2nd Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Supreme Court decision alters 2026 midterm election outlook | Brookingsbrookings.edu

8. Are there any public, district-level polls for the IL-02 2026 general election, and what do voter registration trends indicate about the electorate's composition?

IL-02 2026 Cook Political Report RatingSolid Democratic [1]
Cook Partisan Voting IndexD+18 [2]
Polymarket Democratic Implied Probability93.5% [3]
No public district-level polls or voter registration data are currently available. While a New York Times polling tracker page for Illinois' 2nd Congressional District was updated on May 8, 2026, specific district-general poll numbers were not retrieved from the surfaced snippets [4]. Information regarding voter registration trends for the district also remains unavailable.
The IL-02 district is a strong Democratic stronghold. The Cook Political Report rates the Illinois 2nd Congressional District as a Solid Democratic seat for the 2026 election cycle [1]. Ballotpedia further indicates the district's strong Democratic lean, listing its Cook Partisan Voting Index as D+18 heading into the 2026 elections [2]. Predictions on Polymarket also heavily favor a Democratic outcome, showing an implied probability of approximately 93.5% for the Democratic side [3].
The 2026 IL-02 election will feature an open seat. The general election for Illinois' 2nd Congressional District is scheduled for November 3, 2026. The Democratic primary, which will determine candidates for the open seat following Robin Kelly's Senate bid, is slated for March 17, 2026 [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1IL-02 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  2. 2Illinois' 2nd Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3IL-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 4Illinois Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  5. 5Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

9. How do non-partisan election forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball currently rate the competitiveness of the IL-02 2026 race?

Cook Political Report RatingSolid Democratic [1]
Sabato's Crystal Ball RatingSafe Democratic [2]
Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI)D+18 [3]
Non-partisan forecasters overwhelmingly favor Democrats in IL-02 2026. Non-partisan election forecasters, including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, currently rate the Illinois 2nd Congressional District race for 2026 as overwhelmingly favorable to Democrats. The Cook Political Report designates the district as "Solid Democratic" [1], while Sabato's Crystal Ball similarly rates it as "Safe Democratic" [2]. This strong Democratic preference is supported by the district's history, as it has not elected a Republican to Congress since the 1950s [4].
Strong Democratic leanings are evident in district metrics. The Cook Partisan Voter Index for IL-02 is D+18, indicating its presidential election results are 18 percentage points more Democratic than the national average [3]. Further projections, as of May 5, 2026, show a 64% chance that Democrats will win by 37 or more percentage points, and a 54% chance they will win by 40 or more percentage points [5]. The general election will feature Democrat Donna Miller, the projected winner of the primary, against Republican Mike Noack [4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1ballotpedia.org
  2. 2ballotpedia.org
  3. 3ballotpedia.org
  4. 4cbsnews.com
  5. 5kalshi.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Democratic Party is currently favored with a 94% probability to win the IL-02 House Election, compared to 6% for the Republican Party, according to Polymarket [1]. This strong position is built on the 2024 election results, where Robin Kelly (D) secured 67.6% of the vote against Ashley Ramos (R)'s 32.4%, representing a 35.2 percentage-point margin of victory [2][3].
Key catalysts that could shift market probabilities include a potential nominee-level scandal on the Democratic side, which is identified as the single highest-impact risk [4]. For the Republican Party, their “path to YES” is described as narrow and extraordinary [4]. Bullish pressure for the Democratic Party is driven by post-primary Democratic unity and stable approval/fundamentals [4]. The next scheduled election dates are the Democratic primary on March 17, 2026, and the general election on November 3, 2026 [5][6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1IL-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  2. 22024 IL General Election Results - U.S. House District 2sj-r.com
  3. 3Illinois 2nd District election results 2024 live updates | The Washington Postwashingtonpost.com
  4. 4Will Democrats Win the IL-02 House Race in 2026?lines.com
  5. 5Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Schedule of Elections - Revised.xlsxelections.il.gov