Illinois's 1st District margin of victory
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Democrats will win Illinois's 1st District by 26 or more points, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This prediction market shows a dramatic and sustained upward price trend. The market opened at a nominal 1.0% probability before experiencing a massive spike to 90.0%. This sharp repricing appears directly linked to the market absorbing information about the district's political landscape, particularly the results of the 2024 election. In that race, Jonathan Jackson won by a significant margin of 31.8 percentage points. This decisive victory likely established a strong baseline expectation for future elections, causing traders to rapidly bid up the probability of a similarly large margin of victory for the Democratic party in the next contest. The price has since stabilized in the low 90s, suggesting the market's initial, aggressive adjustment has found a consensus.
The trading volume provides strong confirmation of this market conviction. A significant volume of 1,002 contracts was traded during the sharp price increase, indicating that the move from 1.0% to 90.0% was driven by substantial trading activity rather than a few small trades. Since that initial surge, volume has been minimal, which suggests that the market has reached a stable equilibrium with little disagreement among participants. The 90% level, where the price first landed after its major spike, now serves as a key support level. The current price of 92.1% reflects an overwhelming market sentiment that the Democratic candidate is highly likely to win Illinois's 1st District by a substantial margin, a sentiment that aligns with external prediction markets cited in the context which give the Democratic Party a similarly high probability of winning the seat.
- Historical election results consistently show a significant Democratic margin of victory.
- The Cook Political Report rates Illinois's 1st District as "Solid Democratic."
- Jonathan Jackson won the 2024 election with a 31.8-point margin.
- Christian Maxwell secured the Republican nomination for IL-01.
- District-level polling data is unavailable for the 2026 election cycle.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, 26+ pts | 92.1% | 90.0% | Historical election results consistently show a significant Democratic margin of victory. |
| Democrats, 44+ pts | 30.0% | 3.1% | The Cook Political Report rates the district Solid Democratic, supporting a wide margin. |
| Democrats, 29+ pts | 85.0% | 80.0% | Past election results indicate a consistent, strong Democratic margin in the district. |
| Democrats, 32+ pts | 0.0% | 43.1% | The district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report supports a large margin. |
| Democrats, 35+ pts | 0.0% | 22.0% | Consistent historical data shows a significant Democratic margin of victory in the district. |
Current Context
Jonathan Jackson secured a significant victory in the 2024 Illinois 1st District election. Jonathan Jackson (D) won Illinois’ 1st Congressional District over Marcus Lewis (R) by a margin of 31.8 percentage points, receiving 65.9% of the vote compared to Lewis’s 34.1% [1]. This translated to 100,334 more votes for Jackson, with 208,398 votes against Lewis’s 108,064 [2]. Looking ahead to the 2026 election, prediction markets indicate a strong likelihood for the Democratic Party to retain the seat. Polymarket’s "IL-01 House Election Winner" shows the Democratic Party with an implied probability of approximately 92-93%, while the Republican Party is at about 5-6% [3][4]. This outlook is consistent with race ratings, as Ballotpedia’s 2026 Illinois’ 1st Congressional District general election ratings include a "Solid Democratic" designation from the Cook Political Report, with other outlets showing similar "Solid/Safe" positioning [5].
The 2026 election cycle includes a Democratic primary challenge. Key dates for Illinois’ 1st Congressional District are the Democratic primary on March 17, 2026, and the general election on November 3, 2026 [6][7]. The Democratic primary currently lists incumbent Jonathan Jackson against Jerico Brown [6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Illinois' 1st Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 22024 IL General Election Results - U.S. House District 1elpasotimes.com
- 3IL-01 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 4IL-01 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 5Illinois' 1st Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 6Illinois' 1st Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 7Illinois' 1st Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A YES resolution occurs if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Illinois's 1st District by 38 percentage points or more. The margin is calculated as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus the next closest candidate's percentage, with no rounding, meaning a margin of exactly 38% or higher is required for YES. A NO resolution occurs if the Democratic Party's margin of victory is less than 38 percentage points, they lose, or tie, with the outcome verified by the official election authority. The market closes upon certified election results or by November 3, 2027, with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, 26+ pts | $0.92 | $0.08 | 92% |
| Democrats, 29+ pts | $0.85 | $0.16 | 85% |
| Democrats, 44+ pts | $0.30 | $0.71 | 30% |
| Democrats, 32+ pts | $0.76 | $0.25 | 0% |
| Democrats, 35+ pts | $0.65 | $0.36 | 0% |
| Democrats, 38+ pts | $0.51 | $0.50 | 0% |
| Democrats, 41+ pts | $0.39 | $0.62 | 0% |
| Democrats, 47+ pts | $0.21 | $0.80 | 0% |
| Democrats, 50+ pts | $0.15 | $0.86 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Current odds suggest a 64% chance that the Democratic candidate will win by 35 percentage points or more, a 50% chance of a victory by 38 percentage points or more, and a 38% probability of winning by 41 percentage points or more [1]. Illinois's 1st Congressional District is strongly Democratic, having favored Joe Biden (D) by a margin of 70.5% to 28.1% in the 2020 presidential election [2]. The incumbent Democrat, Jonathan Jackson, who secured 67.0% of the vote in 2022 [3], will be challenged by Republican Christian Maxwell in the 2026 general election [4].
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score94Strong
Trade quality20% of score42High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score84Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. What is the consensus from non-partisan rating outlets like The Cook Political Report regarding the competitiveness of the IL-01 2026 general election?
| Cook Political Report Rating | Solid Democratic (IL-01) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Implied Competitiveness | Low competitive threat from Republicans [1][2] |
| Polymarket Democratic Share Price | ~92% (IL-01) [3] |
Non-partisan outlets predict a non-competitive IL-01 election. The Cook Political Report has rated Illinois’ 1st District (IL-01) as “Solid Democratic” for the 2026 House general election, a classification reported by Ballotpedia [1][2]. This assessment signifies that Republican candidates are expected to pose a minimal competitive threat in the district, indicating a largely non-competitive race [1][2].
Prediction markets confirm a strong Democratic advantage in IL-01. This perspective on IL-01’s competitiveness is consistent with insights from prediction markets, such as Polymarket, which shows "Democratic Party" shares for IL-01 trading at approximately 92% [3]. This high share price suggests a strong likelihood of a Democratic victory, thereby reinforcing the expectation that the race will not be competitive [3].
6. Which Republican candidates are emerging for the 2026 election, and how might their profiles compare to the 2024 nominee, Marcus Lewis?
| Maxwell's primary vote share | 65% [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Maxwell's cash on hand (post-primary) | $35,000 [5] |
| Lewis's 2024 general election vote share | 33.8% [6] |
Christian Maxwell secured the Republican nomination for Illinois's 1st Congressional District. He defeated Marcus Lewis in the March 17, 2026, primary election, securing 65% of the vote with 8,471 votes, while Lewis received 4,632 votes [1][2][3][4]. The incumbent, Jonathan Jackson (D), will now face Maxwell (R) in the general election on November 3, 2026, for a district characterized by a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of D+18 [1]. Another Republican challenger, Brian Kovaka, also filed but did not advance past the primary [7][8].
Maxwell's professional background and resources distinguish him from Lewis. Maxwell is an e-commerce consultant and a UIC graduate, reporting $35,000 in cash on hand after the primary [5]. This contrasts with Lewis, who is retired and made his ninth run for the office without raising any campaign funds [5][9]. In the 2024 general election, Marcus Lewis previously served as the Republican nominee, losing to Jonathan Jackson (D) after receiving 33.8% of the vote [6].
Sources (9)
- 1Illinois' 1st Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Illinois' 1st Congressional District election, 2026 (March 17 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3Marcus Lewis - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4Christian Maxwell - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 5Christian Maxwell, Republican candidate for Illinois 1st Congressional District - Chicago Sun-Timeschicago.suntimes.com
- 6Marcus Lewis - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 72026 U.S. House elections in Illinois district 1 - All politics is local!opencampaign.com
- 8Brian Kovaka 1 - Running for U.S. House - Challenger - OpenCampaign Politician Profile - All politics is local!opencampaign.com
- 9Marcus Lewis, Republican candidate for Illinois 1st Congressional District - Chicago Sun-Timeschicago.suntimes.com
7. How do incumbent Jonathan Jackson and primary challenger Jerico Brown compare in fundraising and cash-on-hand for the 2026 election cycle?
| Jonathan Jackson General Election Date | November 3, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Jerico Brown Funds Raised | $25,000 by March 31, 2026 [3] |
| Jerico Brown Fundraising Goal Achieved | 33% [3] |
Jonathan Jackson's campaign financials for 2026 lack specific detailed disclosures. Jackson's campaign committee, "JONATHAN JACKSON FOR CONGRESS" (C00802603), reported total receipts and disbursements since January 1, 2025, as of February 25, 2026 [4]. However, specific dollar amounts for these financial activities are not detailed in the publicly available information, with some platforms indicating that FEC filings for Jackson's 2026 campaign may still be processing or are only publicly summarized [5]. Jackson is slated to advance to the general election on November 3, 2026, where he will compete against Christian Maxwell (R) [1][2].
Jerico Brown has reported $25,000 in fundraising for his campaign. In contrast, Jerico Brown's campaign had raised $25,000 by March 31, 2026, representing 33% of his stated fundraising goal [3]. The research findings do not provide any information regarding Jerico Brown's cash-on-hand figures. A direct financial comparison between the two candidates is limited because specific total receipts, disbursements, or cash-on-hand figures for Jonathan Jackson's 2026 election cycle are also not disclosed.
8. Is any district-level polling data available for either the Democratic primary or the general election in Illinois's 1st District for the 2026 cycle?
| IL-01 Polling Data | No district-level polling data found for 2026 cycle [1] |
|---|---|
| Democratic Primary Date | March 17, 2026 [1] |
| General Election Date | November 3, 2026 [1] |
District-level polling data is unavailable for Illinois's 1st Congressional District's 2026 cycle. Research found no district-level polling data for either the Democratic primary or the general election in Illinois's 1st District for the 2026 cycle. The retrieved sources, including pages similar to NPR, 270toWin, and The New York Times election-result trackers, emphasize election outcomes rather than providing district polling with measured margins [2][3][4].
Key election details and a prediction market exist for Illinois's 1st District. While specific polling data is absent, other election information for the district is available. The Illinois's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary was held on March 17, 2026, which advanced Jonathan Jackson. The general election for the district is set for November 3, 2026 [1]. Additionally, a Polymarket prediction market exists for the 'House Election Winner' in IL-01, although a source confirming a distinct 'margin of victory' market for the district was not found [5].
Sources (5)
- 1Illinois' 1st Congressional District election, 2026 (March 17 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Illinois Primary Election Results 2026: NPRapps.npr.org
- 32026 Illinois Primary Live Results - 270toWin270towin.com
- 4Illinois First Congressional District Primary 2026: Live Election Results - The New York Timesnytimes.com
- 5IL-01 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
9. What do historical election results since the 2022 redistricting show for the Democratic margin of victory in Illinois's 1st District?
| 2022 Democratic Margin of Victory | 34 percentage points [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| 2024 General Election Winner | Jonathan Jackson [2][4] |
| 2024 Democratic Margin of Victory | Not specified in provided information [1] |
Jonathan Jackson won the 2024 general election. The incumbent, Jonathan Jackson, secured his win in the 2024 general election for Illinois's 1st Congressional District [2][4]. However, the specific Democratic margin of victory for this 2024 general election was not provided in the research findings.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
A significant catalyst is the strong Democratic baseline, as Jonathan Jackson (D) won the 2024 Illinois 1st District U.S. House election with 65.9% compared to Marcus Lewis (R)'s 34.1%, marking a 31.8-point margin [1]. This aligns with current Polymarket sentiment for the “IL-01 House Election Winner” which shows the Democratic Party at 92% and the Republican Party at 6% in winner-market probabilities, implying bullish odds for Democrats and bearish odds for Republicans [2].
Another catalyst involves the election timeline. The Illinois 1st District U.S. House general election is listed as November 3, 2026, in Ballotpedia and Illinois election calendar sources, indicating a mismatch with any user-specified 2027 date [3][4]. The main election key dates for the 1st District include Democratic and Republican primaries on March 17, 2026, and the general election on November 3, 2026 [5][3]. Polymarket’s winner market is scheduled to resolve on or around November 3, 2026 [2].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (5)
- 12024 IL General Election Results - U.S. House District 1elpasotimes.com
- 2IL-01 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 3Illinois' 1st Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4Sangamon County > Departments > A-C > County Clerk > Elections > Election Information > Future Election Dates & Election Calendarssangamonil.gov
- 5Illinois' 1st Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
