Kansas's 2nd District margin of victory
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Republicans to win Kansas's 2nd District by 1 or more points, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market experienced a dramatic and immediate upward trend from its opening. The price surged from a starting point of 1.0% to 85.0% within a single day, an exceptionally sharp move. This initial spike appears to be a rapid market correction, aligning the contract's price with the fundamental political landscape of Kansas's 2nd District. The context provided establishes the district as a Republican stronghold, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and ratings of "Solid Republican" from multiple political handicappers. The market's swift repricing from a nominal opening value to a high-probability state reflects an immediate consensus forming around this established political reality.
Since that initial adjustment, the price has stabilized in a high range, fluctuating between 85.0% and a peak of 91.6%. The 85% level appears to have acted as a firm support base following the initial spike. The total volume of 2,397 contracts indicates moderate trading activity over the market's lifespan, though the sample data points show no volume during the most significant price movements, suggesting the initial correction may have occurred on thin trading or been set by a market maker. Overall, the sustained high price, currently at 90.5%, demonstrates strong and stable market sentiment, with participants showing a high degree of confidence in a significant Republican margin of victory, in line with the district's historical performance and expert ratings.
- The district's R+10 Cook PVI suggests a strong Republican advantage.
- Multiple reputable forecasters rate the district as "Solid Republican."
- Incumbent Derek Schmidt appears to have a significant fundraising advantage.
- Republicans secured an 18.8-point margin of victory in 2024.
- Currently, no public polling data exists for the 2026 district race.
- Don Coover presents a strong profile to potentially narrow the margin.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 1+ pts | 90.5% | 89.1% | The R+10 PVI, 'Solid Republican' rating, and 2024's 18.8-point margin suggest a large victory. |
| Republicans, 4+ pts | 82.0% | 79.7% | The R+10 PVI, 'Solid Republican' rating, and 2024's 18.8-point margin suggest a large victory. |
| Republicans, 13+ pts | 49.0% | 40.0% | The R+10 PVI, 'Solid Republican' rating, and 2024's 18.8-point margin suggest a large victory. |
| Republicans, 7+ pts | 70.0% | 67.1% | The R+10 PVI, 'Solid Republican' rating, and 2024's 18.8-point margin suggest a large victory. |
| Republicans, 10+ pts | 0.0% | 46.7% | The R+10 PVI, 'Solid Republican' rating, and 2024's 18.8-point margin suggest a large victory. |
Current Context
Kansas's 2nd Congressional District is a strongly Republican area, with a significant historical margin. The district holds a Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+10, indicating it leans 10 percentage points more Republican than the national average based on recent presidential election results [1][2]. Major political handicappers such as The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the district as "Solid Republican" or "Safe Republican" for the 2026 election [3]. This large district covers a substantial part of eastern Kansas, stretching from Nebraska to Oklahoma, and includes cities like Topeka, Emporia, Junction City, and Pittsburg [4]. In the 2024 election, Republican Derek Schmidt secured approximately 57.1% of the vote [4][5]. Similarly, Republican LaTurner received 134,506 votes (57.64%), while Patrick Schmidt received 98,852 votes (42.36%) [2]. An election model by The Hill and DDHQ in 2024 also predicted Derek Schmidt had a 99% chance of winning the district [2].
The 2026 election features an incumbent Republican and a Democratic primary race. Incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Derek Schmidt has filed for re-election in the 2nd Congressional District [6][1][7]. On the Democratic side, Don Coover and Braeden Curwick are contending in the primary, which does not include an incumbent [3][6][7]. The primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026 [3][8][1][4][9], followed by the general election on November 3, 2026 [3][8][1][4]. Key deadlines for the election cycle include the candidate filing deadline on June 1, 2026 [8][1][10]. For the primary election, the voter registration deadline is July 14, 2026, with advance voting commencing on July 15, 2026 [3][10]. For the general election, the voter registration deadline is October 13, 2026, and advance voting starts October 14, 2026 [10]. In-person advance voting must be available in all counties by October 27, 2026 [10].
Market predictions indicate a high probability of a substantial Republican victory in the district. The market currently shows probabilities for a Republican win by 10 or more percentage points at 57%, by 13 or more percentage points at 49%, and by 16 or more percentage points at 33% [11].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Kansas's 2nd District by 13 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to No. The margin of victory is calculated as the Republican Party's vote percentage minus that of the closest competing party, without rounding, and results are verified by official election authorities. The market closes and payouts occur shortly after certified election results are published, or by November 3, 2027, at the latest.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 1+ pts | $0.91 | $0.10 | 91% |
| Republicans, 4+ pts | $0.82 | $0.19 | 82% |
| Republicans, 7+ pts | $0.70 | $0.31 | 70% |
| Republicans, 13+ pts | $0.49 | $0.52 | 49% |
| Republicans, 10+ pts | $0.58 | $0.43 | 0% |
| Republicans, 16+ pts | $0.34 | $0.67 | 0% |
| Republicans, 19+ pts | $0.27 | $0.74 | 0% |
| Republicans, 22+ pts | $0.18 | $0.83 | 0% |
| Republicans, 25+ pts | $0.11 | $0.90 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Kansas's 2nd District has a strong Republican lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10, and the Republican candidate won 57.64% of the vote in 2022; redistricting has further solidified this trend [1]. Incumbent Derek Schmidt (R) is running for re-election in the primary scheduled for August 4, 2026, against Democratic primary candidates Don Coover and Braeden Curwick [1]. A prediction market currently assesses a 33% likelihood for a Republican win exceeding 16 percentage points [2].
Sources (2)
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Market integrity is low (68), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score73Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. What national trends or Kansas-specific issues could significantly alter Derek Schmidt's expected margin of victory by November 2026?
| KS-02 Cook PVI | R+10 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Kansas redistricting votes short | ~20 votes [4] |
| USPollingData 2026 Dem House gains forecast | 15–25 seats [5] |
Derek Schmidt’s expected margin of victory in Kansas’s 2nd District by November 2026 could be significantly altered despite the district’s baseline Cook PVI R+10 rating and inherent Republican structural advantage [1][2][3]. Potential redistricting changes represent a key factor. Republican efforts in 2026 to redraw congressional maps were reportedly about 20 votes short of passage and faced a vowed veto from Governor Laura Kelly [4]. An unexpected procedural change, court ruling, or veto override could directly alter the district-level electoral environment, although Schmidt indicated he was unaware of developments on proposed legislation to redraw the four U.S. House districts to make it easier to defeat Sharice Davids [6][4].
State fiscal challenges and legislative outcomes could also influence voter sentiment. Kansas revenue forecasters reported sliding income tax collections and budget shortfalls, which could heighten the salience of tax policy [7]. If voters perceive this fiscal stress as linked to the GOP agenda, or if enacted property-tax relief and other legislative priorities from the 2026 session are viewed as unfair or burdensome, it could narrow margins in districts such as KS-02 [7][8][9].
National political shifts and Schmidt’s federal voting record could reduce his margin. National trends and federal policy could also play a role in the election outcome. A USPollingData 2026 forecast projects Democrats likely gaining 15–25 House seats nationally, suggesting a stronger-than-expected national Democratic performance or successful national messaging could compress Republican margins [5]. Locally, Schmidt’s vote on a federal budget bill that included tax breaks endorsed by President Donald Trump while reducing health care and food assistance could become a dominant campaign narrative, potentially reducing his margin [10].
Sources (10)
- 1KS-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 2Kansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 (August 4 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas's_2nd_congressional_districten.wikipedia.org
- 4Kansas Republicans don't have enough votes for redistricting in 2026 | KCUR - Kansas City news and NPRkcur.org
- 52026 Comprehensive Forecast: Democrats Likely Gain 15–25 House Seats, 50/50 Senate | USPollingData.comuspollingdata.com
- 6Republican congressman files for reelection in Kansas' 2nd District • Kansas Reflectorkansasreflector.com
- 7Kansas revenue forecast shows sliding income tax collections and budget shortfalls • Kansas Reflectorkansasreflector.com
- 8Kansas Legislature Wraps Up 2026 Sessionkla.org
- 9KARA | 2026 Kansas Capitol Review – Week Oneksagretailers.org
- 10U.S. House delegation from Kansas votes along party lines on federal budget bill • Kansas Reflectorkansasreflector.com
6. How do historical election margins in Kansas's 2nd District since the 2022 cycle compare to the current 'Solid Republican' rating from forecasters?
| Republican Margin of Victory (2024) | 15.2 percentage points [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Chance of Winning for Derek Schmidt | 99% [2] |
| Votes for Derek Schmidt (2024) | 172,847 [3] |
Kansas's 2nd District race was a decisive Republican victory in 2024. In the 2024 United States House of Representatives elections, Republican Derek Schmidt secured a significant win in Kansas's 2nd District, achieving a 15.2 percentage point margin over his Democratic opponent [1][2]. Specifically, Schmidt received 172,847 votes, while Democrat Nancy Boyda garnered 115,685 votes, and John Hauer received 14,229 votes [3]. This outcome aligns with current forecasters' ratings, which consistently classified the district as "Solid Republican," with The Hill and DDHQ predicting a 99% chance of victory for Schmidt [2].
The "Solid Republican" rating reflects strong partisan advantage and high accuracy. This designation is utilized by various forecasters, including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill, to indicate a clear and uncompetitive advantage for one party, typically signifying over a 95% chance of winning for the favored candidate [4]. Historically, races rated as "Solid Republican" or "Solid Democratic" have been won by the predicted party 99.8% of the time, reinforcing the reliability of this assessment [5]. The district's political leanings are further illustrated by its Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+10.8 [2].
7. How does incumbent Derek Schmidt's fundraising compare to that of Democratic challengers Don Coover and Braeden Curwick, according to the latest FEC filings?
| Derek Schmidt Receipts | $989,112.11 (01/01/2025201303/31/2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Don Coover Receipts | $299,679 (as of 12/31/2025) [2][3] |
| Braeden Curwick Receipts | $0 (2026 cycle) [4][3] |
Incumbent Derek Schmidt significantly leads Democratic challengers in fundraising. According to recent Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, Schmidt's campaign reported total receipts of $989,112.11. This amount was accumulated over the period from January 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026 [1].
Democratic challengers trail far behind Schmidt in fundraising efforts. Don Coover, one of the Democratic challengers, reported total receipts of $299,679 as of December 31, 2025 [2][3]. The other Democratic challenger, Braeden Curwick, has not reported any receipts for the 2026 election cycle [4][3]. This places Schmidt's reported receipts at approximately 3.3 times that of Coover's, and an infinitely greater amount compared to Curwick's reported receipts [1][3].
8. What public polling data is available for the 2026 Kansas 2nd District race, and what margin does it suggest?
| General Election Date | Nov. 3, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| District Partisan Lean | Cook PVI R+10 [1] |
| Polling Data Availability | Not available for KS-2 2026 race [2] |
No public polling data currently exists for the 2026 Kansas 2nd District race. Available sources do not provide specific polling data, making it impossible to suggest a margin of victory from such information. Ballotpedia lists the general election date for Kansas's 2nd Congressional District as November 3, 2026, and notes the district's partisan lean as Cook PVI R+10 [1]. A polling page from Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections shows no aggregate polling data for the 2026 Kansas Senate race, thereby indicating no readily indexed polling data specifically for the 2026 Kansas 2nd District [2].
Prediction markets do not currently provide a specific numerical margin of victory. While a market exists on Kalshi specifically for the "Kansas’s 2nd District margin of victory" (KS-02), the retrieved content does not display the current best-priced margin bucket [3]. Consequently, the information at hand does not allow for computing a specific numerical margin of victory from this source either [3].
9. Which Democratic primary candidate, Don Coover or Braeden Curwick, has a stronger electoral profile to potentially narrow the margin against Derek Schmidt in the general election?
| Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) | R+10 (2nd Congressional District) [1] |
|---|---|
| Derek Schmidt's 2024 Election Result | Defeated Democratic challenger by a double-digit percentage [2] |
| Braeden Curwick Age | 27 years old [3] |
Don Coover presents a strong profile with broad appeal in a conservative district. His background as a rancher, veterinarian, and U.S. Army veteran, including graduating from West Point and serving as a Captain, offers a wide range of appeal [4][5][6]. Coover's rural upbringing, family history in farming, and his father's profession as a union truck driver allow him to connect with both rural and working-class voters [4]. His emphasis on fixing "broken politics" and uniting people could also attract moderate and independent voters seeking less partisan representation [4].
Braeden Curwick's progressive platform may face challenges against a strong incumbent. At 27 years old, Curwick advocates for younger representation with an explicitly progressive platform, including a $25/hour minimum wage and universal single-payer healthcare [3]. Although he has grassroots political involvement as an elected Shawnee County Democrat Precinct Committee Person and is a member of Teamster Local 696 (on hold) [3][7], his progressive stance may face difficulties in the 2nd Congressional District, which holds a strong Republican lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+10 [1]. Derek Schmidt, the incumbent U.S. Representative who took office in January 2025, is a formidable figure with extensive political experience [8][9][10][11][1]. In the November 2024 general election, Schmidt defeated his Democratic challenger by a double-digit percentage and significantly outraised her campaign [2].
Coover's broader appeal suggests a stronger position to narrow the margin. Given the district's strong Republican lean and the incumbent's proven strength, a candidate with broader appeal, like Coover, appears better positioned to potentially narrow the margin against Schmidt compared to a candidate with a more niche progressive platform.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Republican candidate is currently leading at 87% (implied) against the Democratic candidate at 13% for the KS-02 House election winner on Polymarket, with resolution on or around Nov 3, 2026 [1][2]. This follows the 2024 KS-02 general election, where Derek Schmidt (R) secured 57.1% of the vote compared to Nancy Boyda (D) with 38.3%, resulting in a margin of +18.8 percentage points [3][4]. The general election is scheduled for Nov 3, 2026, with a primary on Aug 4, 2026, and a filing deadline of June 1, 2026 [5][6].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (8)
- 1KS-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 2KS-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 32024 KS U.S. House General Election Resultsaugustachronicle.com
- 4Kansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2024ballotpedia.org
- 5Kansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6Kansas' 2nd Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 72026 Midterms: Polymarket's Election Analysisactionnetwork.com
- 8Republican congressman files for reelection in Kansas' 2nd District • Kansas Reflectorkansasreflector.com
