Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Democrats, 2+ pts, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The price for "Democrats, 2+ pts" in Florida's 13th District has shown a significant upward trend, rising from a low of 2.0% to a current high of 25.0%. The market's defining movement was a dramatic 13.0 percentage point spike on May 06, 2026, where the price surged from 10.0% to 23.0%. This single event fundamentally shifted the contract's valuation, moving it from a low-probability outcome to one with a more notable chance of occurring. Following this spike, the price has continued to climb modestly, consolidating near its peak.
The specific catalyst for the sharp price increase on May 06, 2026, is not explained by the available information. While the district has a history of competitive races and has undergone recent redistricting, no specific news or event on that date is provided to account for the sudden re-evaluation by traders. The market has seen a total volume of 2,746 contracts traded. The sample data shows periods of zero volume, including around the time of the major price shift, which may suggest that significant price changes can occur without broad market participation. The current price of 25.0% acts as a resistance level, being the highest point reached so far, while the area around 23.0% has become a new support level. Overall, the chart indicates a strong and rapid shift in market sentiment, with traders now pricing in a much higher probability of a competitive race than they did initially.
  • FL-13 holds an R+5 PVI and "Likely Republican" rating.
  • Incumbent Luna previously won district elections by 8-10 points.
  • Recent Florida special elections showed strong Republican margins over 10 points.
  • Leela Gray reported significant contributions in early 2026 for her campaign.
  • Primary election is August 18, 2026; general election is November 3, 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Democrats, 2+ pts 25.0% 19.2% The R+5 PVI, 'Likely Republican' rating, and incumbent's past wins make a Democratic margin challenging.
Democrats, 5+ pts 7.3% 5.7% A Democratic 5+ point win is challenging given the R+5 PVI and strong recent Republican performance.

Current Context

Florida's 13th District has a history of close races and recent boundary shifts. Incumbent Anna Paulina Luna (R) secured a win in 2024 with an increased margin compared to her 2022 victory, where she defeated Eric Lynn (D) by 8.0 points (53.1% to 45.1%). [1] Prior to Luna's wins, Democrat Charlie Crist held the district, winning in 2020 by 6.0 points against Luna (53.0% to 47.0%) and in 2018 by 9.4 points (54.7% to 45.3%) under different district boundaries. [1][2] Recent redistricting efforts have reshaped the district, with challenger Leela Gray's campaign alleging the changes were designed to protect Luna by removing some Democratic-leaning areas of southern Pinellas County, though the district also gained some Democratic voters from Florida's 14th Congressional District. [3] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has designated FL-13 as a key target, including it in its "Red to Blue" initiative, highlighting its status as one of only two potentially competitive congressional districts in Florida for the 2026 cycle. [4][1] The Cook Political Report rates the race as "Likely Republican" with a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+5, an assessment echoed by Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball. [4][5][6][7][8]
Despite Republican leanings, experts see the 2026 FL-13 race as potentially close. Experts observe that while Luna benefits from incumbency and a Republican-leaning district, she underperformed Donald Trump in her district in 2024, and Democratic challenger Leela Gray is considered a strong contender. [4] Broader trends from early 2026 state legislative special elections across the country show Democrats outperforming their 2024 presidential performance by an average of 11.5 points, though such margins often moderate closer to general elections. [9] Democratic-aligned polls in Florida for 2026 suggest tight races, although Republicans have dismissed these findings as partisan. [10] Other prediction markets offer more granular predictions, such as a Republican win by 7 percentage points or more. [11] Key dates for the 2026 election include a filing deadline of June 12, 2026, the primary election on August 18, 2026, and the general election on November 3, 2026. [5] The market for the FL-13 House winner is set to resolve on November 4, 2026, following the general election. [4]
Sources (11)
  1. 1ballotpedia.org
  2. 2ballotpedia.org
  3. 3floridapolitics.com
  4. 4lines.com
  5. 5ballotpedia.org
  6. 6cookpolitical.com
  7. 7ballotpedia.org
  8. 8ballotpedia.org
  9. 9multistate.us
  10. 10youtube.com
  11. 11kalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 May 06, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 10.0% to 23.0%

Outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts

What happened: The provided web research lacks specific details about any social media activity, news events, or market structure factors that occurred on or immediately prior to May 06, 2026, which could explain a 13.0 percentage point spike for "Democrats, 2+ pts" in the Florida's 13th District prediction market. While the district is rated "Likely Republican" with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5 [1], and Democratic challengers have launched campaigns [2], no information available ties these or other potential drivers directly to the date of the market movement. Therefore, based on the given sources, a primary driver for this specific price movement cannot be identified.
Sources (2)
  1. 1cookpolitical.com
  2. 2iheart.comwsrz.iheart.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 13th District by 2 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to "No". The market, which opened May 5, 2026, will close after the official results for the November 3, 2026 election are published, with a projected payout 30 minutes later. The margin is calculated as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus that of the closest competing candidate, with no rounding, and the market can close early if certified results become available, but no later than November 3, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Democrats, 2+ pts $0.25 $0.76 25%
Democrats, 5+ pts $0.07 $0.95 7%

Market Discussion

In the 2024 election, Florida's 13th Congressional District was won by the Republican candidate with a margin of 9.6% [1][2][3]. For the 2026 election, prediction markets indicate Republicans are favored to win [4], although Democratic candidate Karla Kemp is campaigning to flip the district [5]. A March-April 2026 poll suggested a tight statewide generic congressional ballot, with Democrats at 46% and Republicans at 45% [6].

Sources (6)
  1. 12024 Election Results for Florida -- RightDataUSA.comrightdatausa.com
  2. 2Florida's 13th Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Florida's 13th Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4FL-13 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5Karla Kemp for Congress (@karlakempforcongress) • Threads, Say morethreads.com
  6. 6NEW: Generic congressional ballot - Florida</p><p>🔵Democratic: 46% 🔴Republican: 45%</p><p>MDW/Edge Communications poll | 3/27-4/3 LV (Florida surveyed, 2026 races)threads.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 79 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score95Strong
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score79Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity95
Structural prior — no screens applyStrong
Info fairness95
Structural prior — no screens applyStrong
Trade quality31
Order book is critically thinHigh Risk
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Trade quality
31High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

Move quality avg 62 across 1 legs

$100 order: 14.2c slippage (~65% of a 22c contract)

$1,000 order: 49.2c slippage (~224% of a 22c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Gray, 2+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Gray, 5+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality62Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
62 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

6. How do Anna Paulina Luna's and Leela Gray's fundraising totals and sources of funding compare for the 2026 election cycle?

Leela Gray Total Receipts (Feb 1-Mar 31, 2026)$564,999.77 [1]
Anna Paulina Luna Total Donations (Q1 2026)Nearly $549,000 [2]
Leela Gray Individual Contributions (Feb 1-Mar 31, 2026)$534,999.77 [1]
For the 2026 election cycle, Leela Gray reported over $560,000 in early 2026 contributions. Between February 1 and March 31, 2026, Gray's campaign accumulated total receipts of $564,999.77 [1]. The vast majority, $534,999.77, originated from individual contributions, comprising $475,290 in itemized donations and $59,709.77 in unitemized donations. An additional $23,000 was received from other committees, and $7,000 came from loans. Notably, her campaign did not receive any funding from party committees or candidate contributions during this period [1].
Anna Paulina Luna raised nearly $550,000, but detailed comparisons are difficult. For the first quarter of 2026, Luna's campaign brought in nearly $549,000 in new donations [2]. Her receipts included a transfer of over $252,000 from the APL Victory Fund, with individual contributions also forming a significant portion of her funding. However, a complete Federal Election Commission (FEC)-style breakdown of Luna's 2026 sources of funding is not provided, which makes a direct comparison of detailed funding sources between the two candidates challenging based on the available information [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1GRAY, LEELA J - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
  2. 2Anna Paulina Luna piles up another $550K for re-election run in 2026floridapolitics.com

7. What evidence from Florida's 2025-2026 special elections indicates whether Democrats are outperforming their 2024 presidential election benchmarks in districts similar to FL-13?

FL-6 Special Election MarginR+13.95% (April 1, 2025) [1]
FL-1 Special Election MarginR+14.6% (April 1, 2025) [2]
FL-13 2020 Presidential Vote52.9% Trump, 46.1% Biden (on 2024 district lines) [3]
No direct evidence confirms Democrats are outperforming FL-13's 2024 benchmarks. There is no direct evidence from Florida's 2025-2026 special elections indicating whether Democrats are outperforming Florida's 13th Congressional District's (FL-13) 2024 presidential election benchmarks in comparable districts [4]. The Polymarket query for “FL-13 House Election Winner” resolves for the 2026 general election, thus not providing a realized 2025–2026 special-election performance metric [4].
Key 2025 congressional special elections demonstrated continued Republican strength. Florida's 2025 congressional special elections, considered the most comparable nationalizing contests, remained Republican. The April 1, 2025 special election for Florida's 6th Congressional District (FL-6) saw Republican Randy Fine win with 56.66% against Democrat Josh Weil's 42.71%, resulting in an R+13.95 margin [1]. Similarly, in the April 1, 2025 special election for Florida's 1st Congressional District (FL-1), Republican Jimmy Patronis secured 56.9% of the vote while Democrat Gay Valimont received 42.28%, a roughly R+14.6 margin [2]. These results indicate Republicans winning by double digits, not Democrats outperforming 2024 presidential benchmarks with competitive winning margins in similar patterns.
Broader legislative special elections also show Republican resilience. Broader Florida legislative special elections held on June 10, 2025, further evidenced Republican resilience rather than Democratic overperformance against benchmarks. Republicans won State Senate District 19 (54.4% Republican vs 45.6% Democrat), House District 3 (67.1% Republican vs 32.9% Democrat), and House District 32 (55.3% Republican vs 44.7% Democrat) [5]. While MCI Maps reported Democratic "over-performance" in Florida’s 2025 specials, noting an average swing to the left of 17% and overperformance ranging from 7% to 15%, the reviewed sources do not establish that this translates to outperforming FL-13’s 2024 presidential benchmark in comparable FL-13-like districts [6]. FL-13’s 2024 presidential benchmark is based on its 2020 vote of 46.1% for Biden and 52.9% for Trump on the 2024 district lines, and it was R+6 relative to the national average in both 2016 and 2020 [3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Florida's_6th_congressional_district_special_electionen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Florida's 1st Congressional District special election, 2025 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Florida's 13th Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4FL-13 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5June 10, 2025 Special Election<BR>State Senate 19, House 3 & 32results.elections.myflorida.com
  6. 6Looking back at Democratic Swings in Florida’s 2025 Special Elections - MCI Maps | Election Data Analyst | Election Targeting | FLmcimaps.com

8. How might President Biden's national approval ratings and Governor DeSantis's state-level approval influence the generic ballot environment for the FL-13 race in Fall 2026?

Generic Congressional BallotD+6.1 (as of May 8, 2026) [1]
Gov. DeSantis Approval (FL)52% approval vs 42% disapproval [2]
FL-13 Prediction Market68% probability for Republican win [3]
President Biden's national approval ratings are a plausible contributor to margin movement in the FL-13 race, shaping "presidential approval-driven generic forces" [4]. As of May 8, 2026, the national generic congressional ballot average stands at D+6.1, indicating a Democratic advantage [1]. However, Governor DeSantis maintains majority approval within Florida, with a 2026 University of North Florida poll showing 52% approval against 42% disapproval [2]. This state-level popularity may reduce the typical magnitude of presidential coattails working against Republican candidates in FL-13 [2].
Florida's 13th Congressional District presents as a competitive contest with conflicting partisan indicators. USPollingData's composite rates FL-13 as a "Toss-up" with a D+1 lean, recognizing its structurally Democratic-leaning geography [4]. Conversely, Ballotpedia reports the Cook Partisan Voter Index for the district as R+5, based on 2020 and 2024 presidential election results [5]. Consequently, even with a nationally Democratic-leaning generic ballot environment, significant anti-Republican or pro-Democratic coattails or turnout shifts are likely required to alter the district's margin [5].
Prediction markets currently indicate a Republican victory in FL-13, suggesting the seat's resilience. A FL-13 prediction market (Polymarket) presently assigns the Republican Party a 68% probability of being the leading resolution outcome [3]. This outlook suggests that markets anticipate the Republican-held FL-13 seat will withstand the national Democratic generic environment. This expectation is consistent with the potential insulating effect of Governor DeSantis's state-level popularity or the district's underlying structural composition [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Generic Congressional Ballot: Latest Polls | Silver Bulletinnatesilver.net
  2. 2Poll: Almost across the board, Ron DeSantis is more popular than Donald Trump in Floridafloridapolitics.com
  3. 3FL-13 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 4Florida's Competitive House Seats 2026: FL-13 and FL-27 Under the Microscope | USPollingData | USPollingData.comuspollingdata.com
  5. 5Florida's 13th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

9. What public, non-partisan polling data is available for the Florida's 13th District race for the 2026 cycle, and how does it compare to internal or partisan polls?

Republican Probability68.5% (Lines.com) [1]
Cook PVIR+5 (Cook Political Report) [1][2][3]
Expert RatingLikely Republican [2][4][5]
There is currently no public, non-partisan polling data available for Florida's 13th District race for the 2026 cycle. However, prediction markets suggest a clear Republican advantage. Lines.com assesses the Republican probability of winning at 68.5%, with the Democratic probability at 31.5% [1]. Furthermore, Kalshi.com indicates that Republicans have a 58% chance of securing victory by 4 or more percentage points, a 51% chance by 7 or more percentage points, and a 42% chance by 10 or more percentage points, as of May 5, 2026 [6].
Expert analyses consistently rate Florida's 13th District as "Likely Republican." This assessment is shared by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball [2][4][5]. The Cook Political Report further assigns the district a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+5, underscoring its Republican leaning [1][2][3]. The incumbent, Representative Anna Paulina Luna (R), won her 2024 reelection bid with approximately 55% of the vote [1].
Sources (6)
  1. 1lines.com
  2. 2ballotpedia.org
  3. 3cookpolitical.com
  4. 4ballotpedia.org
  5. 5ballotpedia.org
  6. 6kalshi.com

10. What voter registration and demographic trends in FL-13 support or challenge its 'Likely Republican' rating from outlets like the Cook Political Report?

Cook Political Report RatingLikely R [1][2]
Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI)R+5 [3]
Incumbent's Last Election Win54.8% [2]
FL-13 holds a "Likely Republican" rating for the 2026 House race. The Cook Political Report assigned this rating, though it also identifies the district as a potential Democratic target for an upset [1][2]. This assessment is consistent with the district's Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+5 for 2026, which is calculated from the 2020 and 2024 presidential election results [3]. Further demonstrating Republican strength, the incumbent GOP candidate Anna Paulina Luna secured her last general election victory with 54.8% of the vote [2].
Demographic factors and statewide trends bolster the district's Republican lean. The district has a population of approximately 762,930, with about 8.7% (around 56,849 individuals) identified as veterans [4]. This demographic often correlates with Republican support in right-leaning districts. Statewide, Florida's active registered voters as of March 31, 2026, demonstrate a clear Republican advantage, with 5,545,284 Republican registrants compared to 4,052,862 Democratic registrants [5]. However, the absence of specific district-level voter registration data precludes a direct assessment of local party trends that might impact the district's 'Likely R' rating or its potential as a Democratic pickup [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1FL-13 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  2. 2FL-13 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  3. 3Florida's 13th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Congressional District 13, FL - Profile data - Census Reportercensusreporter.org
  5. 5Voter Registration - By County and Party - Division of Elections - Florida Department of Statedos.fl.gov

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Significant catalysts for the Florida's 13th congressional district market include the upcoming election dates. Ballotpedia lists the primary election for August 18, 2026, and the general election for November 3, 2026 [1]. These events will directly impact the expected Republican versus Democratic vote spread, which is tradable on markets like Kalshi's "midterm margin of victory" offering [2].
The current base case, as observed on Polymarket's "FL-13 House Election Winner" listing captured on 2025-12-16, assigns the Republican Party a 68% probability and the Democratic Party 27% [3]. Any developments that shift this Republican-leaning base case, which typically translates to a higher expected GOP margin, would act as a key catalyst for the margin-of-victory market [3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (3)
  1. 1Florida's 13th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Florida's 13th District margin of victory Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  3. 3FL-13 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com