Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Democrats are most likely to win Georgia's 13th District by 34 or more points, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The price chart for this market is characterized by a powerful and abrupt upward trend. The market began with the YES probability priced at a low of 2.0% on May 05. It then experienced a massive spike over the next two days, reaching 80.0% and subsequently settling near its current price of 81.0%. This movement indicates a sudden and decisive repricing of the contract, shifting it from being viewed as a low-probability event to one the market sees as highly likely. The price action is almost entirely defined by this initial, sharp re-evaluation rather than a gradual climb.
The context provided notes that research found no specific news catalyst or identifiable driver for the significant price increase that occurred early in the market's history. The jump from 2% to the 80% range appears to be a rapid market correction to align with the district's fundamental political leanings. Total volume is moderate at 722 contracts, but the price spike itself occurred on what the sample data reports as zero volume, suggesting the shift may have been triggered by large orders that were filled instantly. The price has since established a stable new range around 81.0%, which acts as a strong support level. This price stabilization at a high probability indicates a firm market consensus that the Democratic margin of victory will be substantial, a sentiment that aligns with the district's D+21 PVI and the reported 43.6 point margin from the 2024 election.
  • District's D+21 PVI and 2024 Democratic margin suggest a large 2026 victory.
  • Republican candidates currently lack significant campaign funding, aiding Democrats.
  • David Scott's April 22, 2026 death triggered a new House race.
  • Jasmine Clark appears to be the likely Democratic nominee for the seat.
  • July 28, 2026 special election results are not yet available.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Democrats, 37+ pts 78.0% 75.4% Strong Democratic lean (D+21 PVI) and 2024's 43.6-point margin indicate a large Democratic victory.
Democrats, 34+ pts 81.0% 78.6% Strong Democratic lean (D+21 PVI) and 2024's 43.6-point margin indicate a large Democratic victory.
Democrats, 58+ pts 25.0% 23.0% Strong Democratic lean (D+21 PVI) and 2024's 43.6-point margin indicate a large Democratic victory.
Democrats, 55+ pts 24.0% 25.0% Strong Democratic lean (D+21 PVI) and 2024's 43.6-point margin indicate a large Democratic victory.
Democrats, 52+ pts 36.0% 27.0% Strong Democratic lean (D+21 PVI) and 2024's 43.6-point margin indicate a large Democratic victory.

Current Context

Georgia's 13th District is a strongly Democratic-leaning congressional seat. In the 2024 general election, incumbent Democrat David Scott secured a significant victory, receiving 256,902 votes (71.8%) compared to Republican Jonathan Chavez's 100,730 votes (28.2%). This resulted in a margin of 156,172 votes or 43.6 percentage points [1][2]. The district is rated Safe Democratic with a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+21, and Kamala Harris won the district by 43 points in 2024 [3][4]. Scott's death on April 22, 2026, at age 80, created a vacancy, which narrowed the GOP's House majority to 217-212 [5].
A special election is scheduled to fill the vacant Democratic congressional seat. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp has set the special election for July 28, 2026, with the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [6][7][3]. The Democratic primary is slated for May 19, 2026, where Jasmine Clark is favored with 78% support on Polymarket, significantly ahead of Everton Blair Jr. at 17% [8]. Prediction markets indicate a high probability of a Democratic victory in the general election, with Polymarket showing Democrats at 94% to win GA-13 [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 12024 GA General Election Results - U.S. House District 13indystar.com
  2. 2Georgia's 13th Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Georgia's 13th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Georgia's 13th District: Special Election Following David Scott's Deathus.headtopics.com
  5. 5David Scott’s death leaves Georgia’s 13th Congressional District vacant - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp sets special election date for David Scott’s District 13ajc.com
  7. 7Special election set to fill US Rep. David Scott’s 13th district seatatlantanewsfirst.com
  8. 8GA-13 Democratic Primary Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketlmsh7.ggff.net
  9. 9GA-13 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 May 05, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 11.0%

Outcome: Democrats, 43+ pts

What happened: Research found no identifiable primary driver for the reported 10.0 percentage point spike in the "Democrats, 43+ pts" outcome for Georgia's 13th District on May 05, 2026. Available sources indicate no reported election spike or catalyst occurred on that date [1][2][3]. The Democratic primary election for the district, which would inform such margin predictions, is not scheduled until May 19, 2026, with results pending thereafter [4][1][2][3]. Therefore, based on the provided information, social media was irrelevant as no related activity or news was identified for the purported movement.
Sources (4)
  1. 12026 Georgia US House 13 | Live Election Results - DDHQ Votesvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 2Georgia Primary Election Results 2026: NPRapps.npr.org
  3. 32026 Georgia US House 13 | Live Election Results - DDHQ Votesvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4U.S. House District 13: A suddenly wide-open race in metro Atlantaajc.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Georgia's 13th District by a margin of 46 percentage points or more. It resolves to NO if the Democratic Party wins by less than 46 percentage points, ties, or loses the election. The margin is calculated as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus the closest opponent's vote percentage, with no rounding, and verified by official election authorities.

The market opened on May 5, 2026, and will close after the election outcome occurs, or by November 3, 2027. It can close early if certified election results are published, with projected payouts occurring 30 minutes after closing.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Democrats, 34+ pts $0.82 $0.19 81%
Democrats, 37+ pts $0.76 $0.25 78%
Democrats, 52+ pts $0.33 $0.68 36%
Democrats, 58+ pts $0.26 $0.75 25%
Democrats, 55+ pts $0.26 $0.75 24%
Democrats, 40+ pts $0.76 $0.25 0%
Democrats, 43+ pts $0.65 $0.36 0%
Democrats, 46+ pts $0.54 $0.47 0%
Democrats, 49+ pts $0.43 $0.58 0%

Market Discussion

In the 2024 election, Georgia's 13th Congressional District saw Democrat David Scott win by a 43.6 percentage point margin, securing 71.8% of the vote [1][2][3]. For 2026, prediction markets indicate a high likelihood of a Democratic Party victory in the GA-13 House seat, with one platform showing 94% odds [4][5]. Another prediction market offers options for the Democratic margin of victory, including a scenario of 34 or more points [6].

Sources (6)
  1. 12024 GA General Election Results - U.S. House District 13indystar.com
  2. 2Georgia's 13th Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Georgia U.S. House - District 13 Election Results | The Palm Beach Posteu.palmbeachpost.com
  4. 4GA-13 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5Will the Democratic Party win the GA-13 House seat? — 94% Prediction Market Odds 2026 | Polymarket | SimpleFunctionssimplefunctions.dev
  6. 6Georgia's 13th District margin of victory Odds & Predictionskalshi.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 85 Strong

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score94Strong
Trade quality20% of score49High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score85Strong

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
62Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first · 7 below the volume floor — not scored

Clark, 37+ pts62
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Clark, 34+ pts—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
61Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

2 contracts · worst first · 7 below the volume floor — not scored

Clark, 34+ pts61
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Clark, 37+ pts—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first · 7 below the volume floor — not scored

Clark, 34+ pts100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Clark, 37+ pts100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
49High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 62 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: book too thin to fill

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

7 below the volume floor — not scored

Clark, 34+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality61Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
61 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Clark, 37+ pts62Market scoreLiquidity62Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 62
Liquidity
62 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

6. How does the profile of the 2026 Democratic nominee compare to former Rep. David Scott's, and how might this shift the 43.6-point margin from 2024?

Democratic Probability (2026)94% [1]
Jasmine Clark Q1 2026 FundraisingOver $1 million [2][3]
Cook PVID+17 [4][5]
Jasmine Clark is the likely Democratic nominee for the special election. A 43-year-old current House Representative for District 108 since 2019 and an Emory University PhD holder, she is the anticipated Democratic nominee for the 2026 special election [6]. She leads the primary market with a 78% probability and has demonstrated strong financial backing, having raised over $1 million in Q1 2026 [2][3]. The primary for this special election is scheduled for May 19, with the potential general election date set for July 28 [5][7].
The district is a reliably Democratic seat with high win probability. Georgia's 13th Congressional District maintains its status as a Solid/Safe Democratic seat for the 2026 general election, underscored by a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of D+17 [4][5]. This strong Democratic lean is further supported by market predictions, with a 94% probability indicated for the Democratic Party winning the 2026 GA-13 House election [1].
Impact on the 2024 margin is uncertain, but success expected. While the specific impact of the nominee's profile shift on the 43.6-point margin from the 2024 election remains unspecified [8][4], the district's consistent and strong Democratic lean suggests a continuation of the party's success in the upcoming election.
Sources (8)
  1. 1GA-13 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  2. 2GA-13 Democratic Primary Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketlmsh7.ggff.net
  3. 3House incumbents lead in Georgia — with one exceptionajc.com
  4. 4Georgia's 13th Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Georgia's 13th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Jasmine Clarken.wikipedia.org
  7. 72026 Georgia's 13th congressional district special electionen.wikipedia.org
  8. 82024 GA General Election Results - U.S. House District 13indystar.com

7. What do the results of the July 28, 2026 special election signal for the Democratic margin of victory in the November 3 general election?

GA-13 District RatingSolid Democratic (Cook Political Report) [1][2]
2024 Democratic Margin of Victory43.6 points (David Scott D) [3]
2026 Democratic Win Probability94% (Polymarket) [4]
The special election results are not yet available. The death of David Scott (D) on April 22, 2026, initiated a special election for Georgia's 13th District, scheduled for July 28, 2026. This nonpartisan election, which may include a runoff, features candidates such as Democrats Emanuel Jones and Marcye Scott [1]. Given that the district is consistently rated as Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report, the results of this special election, once available, will inform further analysis [1][2]. However, as of now, the outcomes are not public, meaning there are no direct implications for the Democratic margin of victory in the November 3, 2026, general election [1].
Democrats are strongly favored in the November general election. Despite the ongoing special election, the Democratic Party's prospects for the November 3, 2026, general election in GA-13 remain robust. Polymarket indicates a 94% probability of a Democratic victory in the district [4]. This strong outlook is consistent with historical performance; in the 2024 general election, David Scott (D) secured a substantial 43.6-point margin, capturing 71.8% of the vote against Jonathan Chavez (R) [3]. A Kalshi market is available to predict the precise margin of victory for the upcoming general election [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 12026 Georgia's 13th congressional district special electionen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Georgia's 13th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Georgia's 13th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4GA-13 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5Georgia's 13th District margin of victory Odds & Predictionskalshi.com

8. What do historical results from comparable open-seat U.S. House elections in 'Safe Democratic' districts suggest for a baseline margin of victory in GA-13?

GA-13 Cook PVID+21 [1]
GA-13 2002 Open-Seat Margin19.3-point Democratic victory [2]
Competitive Open Races D+20+ PVINone found recently [3][4]
Georgia's 13th District is a strongly Democratic stronghold. This congressional district (GA-13) is classified as a Safe Democratic district, holding a D+21 Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) based on 2020 and 2024 presidential election results, which places it as the 50th most Democratic district nationally [1]. Recent election margins in GA-13 highlight its strong Democratic lean, including an estimated 72-28 split in 2024, a 63.6-point Democratic margin in 2022, and a 71.5-point Democratic margin in 2020 [1][2].
The 2002 open-seat election in GA-13 showed a substantial Democratic win. This contest, which occurred when the district was newly established, represents the closest historical comparison for an open-seat election in GA-13. In that race, the Democratic candidate secured 59.6% of the vote against the Republican's 40.4%, resulting in a 19.3-point Democratic margin of victory [2]. This outcome aligns with the broader trend indicating that open seats in Safe Democratic districts typically lead to significant Democratic wins [5].
Open-seat elections in very safe Democratic districts are rarely competitive. Further research into comparable open-seat U.S. House elections in districts with a D+20 or higher PVI has identified no recent instances of competitive races [3][4]. Even in a district considered less safe, such as NJ-11, a special open-seat election still resulted in a substantial 21-point Democratic victory [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Georgia's 13th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Georgia's 13th congressional districten.wikipedia.org
  3. 3A Flood of Open House Seats—But Not Competitive Open Seats - Sabato's Crystal Ballcenterforpolitics.org
  4. 4Candidate Recruitment 2026: DCCC vs. NRCC, Retirement Wave, and Open Seats | USPollingData.comuspollingdata.com
  5. 5Here are the final results in the NJ-11 special election - New Jersey Globenewjerseyglobe.com

9. What public polling data is available for the GA-13 special or general election for the period between the May 2026 primary and the November 2026 election?

Special Election Call DateMay 1, 2026 [1][2][3]
Special Election DateJuly 28, 2026 [1][2][3]
Primary Election DateMay 19, 2026 [4][5][6]
A special election is set for Georgia's 13th Congressional District. This election was announced on May 1, 2026, following the passing of Representative David Scott (D) on April 22, 2026. The special election is scheduled for July 28, 2026, and will be nonpartisan, with the possibility of a runoff vote [1][2][3].
Regular election primaries are scheduled with key candidates. Both the Democratic and Republican primaries for the general election are slated for May 19, 2026. Notable candidates in the Democratic primary include Jasmine Clark, Everton Blair Jr., and Emanuel Jones. Jonathan Chavez is one of the candidates participating in the Republican primary [4][5][6].
No recent public polling data exists for GA-13 elections. As of the current research, no public polling data specifically dated after May 19, 2026, has been identified for either the special or general election in Georgia's 13th Congressional District. Public polling efforts have primarily focused on primary elections and other statewide contests, such as the U.S. Senate race [7][8][9][10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 12026 Georgia's 13th congressional district special electionen.wikipedia.org
  2. 22026 Georgia's 13th congressional district special electionen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp sets special election date for David Scott’s District 13ajc.com
  4. 4Georgia's 13th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Georgia's 13th Congressional District election, 2026 (May 19 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Georgia's 13th district: 6 challengers seek to fill now-vacant seatatlpresscollective.com
  7. 7Georgia 13th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls - ny timesnytimes.com
  8. 8Georgia 2026: What the polls say about the U.S. Senate raceajc.com
  9. 9AJC Poll: Democrats high on Ossoff heading into tough electionajc.com
  10. 10Georgia 2026 Poll: Senator Ossoff Starts Re-Election Near 50% and Outpaces GOP Field - Emerson Pollingclick-em.ajc.com
  11. 112026 Georgia Governor - Democratic Primary | RealClearPollingrealclearpolling.com

10. How could the profile and campaign strength of the 2026 Republican nominee for GA-13 affect the final Democratic margin of victory?

Cook PVID+21 (50th most Democratic district) [1][2]
2024 Democratic Margin of Victory43.6% [3]
Polymarket Democratic Win Probability94% [4]
GA-13 is a reliably Democratic district, strongly favoring a Democratic victory. This district holds a D+21 Cook PVI, ranking it as the 50th most Democratic district in the nation [1][2]. In the 2024 election cycle, the Democratic candidate secured a substantial 43.6% margin of victory [3]. Although the incumbent's passing in April 2026 created an open seat and a crowded Democratic primary where Jasmine Clark is favored, Polymarket forecasts a 94% probability of a Democratic win for the district in 2026 [4][5][6].
Republican candidates for GA-13 currently show no significant campaign strength. The 2026 Republican primary includes Jonathan Chavez, a previous nominee and likely frontrunner, alongside Peter Bourne and Simeon Nunnally [7][8]. However, Federal Election Commission (FEC) data indicates that all listed Republican candidates have reported $0 in both contributions and expenditures [9][10]. This present lack of financial campaigning, combined with the district's strong Democratic lean, suggests that the Republican nominee's profile or campaign strength is unlikely to significantly reduce the anticipated large Democratic margin of victory in this D+21 district [1][2][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Georgia's 13th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Georgia's 13th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Georgia U.S. House - District 13 Election Results | The Palm Beach Posteu.palmbeachpost.com
  4. 4GA-13 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5Georgia's 13th district: 6 challengers seek to fill now-vacant seatatlpresscollective.com
  6. 6GA-13 Democratic Primary Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketlmsh7.ggff.net
  7. 7Georgia's 13th Congressional District election, 2026 (May 19 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 82026 Georgia Primary Candidates – WABEwabe.org
  9. 9Peter Bourneballotpedia.org
  10. 10Simeon Nunnally - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The sudden death of David Scott on April 22, 2026, after he had filed for re-election, has triggered a new race for the Georgia’s 13th Congressional District House seat [1][2][3]. The district is strongly Democratic, identified as the 50th most Democratic nationally, with CM Predictions indicating a Solid D and 100% Democratic probability [4][5]. Prediction markets reflect this lean, with Polymarket showing Democrats at 94% and Republicans at 4% for the GA-13 House Winner as of May 2026 [6]. Kalshi markets also predict a Democratic margin of victory of 34+ points and a Democratic House winner [7][8], consistent with a past median margin of victory of 43.4 points [1][2][3].
The Democratic primary is a key event in this race, with Polymarket indicating Jasmine Clark at 78% and Everton Blair Jr. at 17% in the GA-13 Democratic Primary [9]. Primary elections are scheduled for May 19 and June 16, 2026, followed by a special election on July 28, and the general election on November 3 [10][11][1]. A potential redistricting catalyst post-SCOTUS VRA ruling was noted, though Governor Kemp has deferred action on this [11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (11)
  1. 1Georgia's 13th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Rep. David Scott’s death triggers new race for his District 13 House seatajc.com
  3. 3David Scott’s death leaves Georgia’s 13th Congressional District vacant - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Georgia's 13th District - GA-13 - CM Election Predictionscmelectionpredictions.com
  5. 5Georgia's 13th district: 6 challengers seek to fill now-vacant seatatlpresscollective.com
  6. 6GA-13 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  7. 7Georgia's 13th District margin of victory Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  8. 8GA-13 House winner? Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
  9. 9GA-13 Democratic Primary Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketlmsh7.ggff.net
  10. 10Georgia's 13th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11Metro Atlanta’s 13th District voters will be at the polls a lot in 2026atlantanewsfirst.com