Georgia Governor margin of victory
Short Answer
Keisha Lance Bottoms secured a victory margin of 8.6 percentage points in the 2026 Georgia Governor race, confirming she won by at least 2 percentage points (99.1%).
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's decisive 67.8 point move on November 4 was a direct repricing based on the election result. The Associated Press called the Georgia governor's race for Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms on the evening of November 3, collapsing the contract's uncertainty. The final, reported results showed Bottoms winning by an 8.6-point margin, confirming the market's spike to near 100%.
An earlier price spike of 10.0 points on October 23 was linked to a specific model forecast that diverged from public polling. The Des Dorsey Friday Wrap reported on a DDHQ model indicating a higher probability of a significant Bottoms victory than contemporaneous polls, which showed her opponent Rick Jackson with a slight lead. This suggests traders priced in the model's alternative forecast over the polling averages at that time.
- Keisha Lance Bottoms secured victory by 8.6 percentage points.
- The contentious Republican primary fractured the GOP, aiding Bottoms's decisive win.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bottoms, 5+ pts | 98.8% | 100.0% | Keisha Lance Bottoms secured an 8.6 percentage point margin of victory. |
| Bottoms, 2+ pts | 99.1% | 100.0% | Keisha Lance Bottoms secured an 8.6 percentage point margin of victory. |
| Bottoms, 3+ pts | 98.9% | 100.0% | Keisha Lance Bottoms secured an 8.6 percentage point margin of victory. |
| Bottoms, 1+ pts | 99.0% | 100.0% | Keisha Lance Bottoms secured an 8.6 percentage point margin of victory. |
| Bottoms, 4+ pts | 98.9% | 100.0% | Keisha Lance Bottoms secured an 8.6 percentage point margin of victory. |
Current Context
Keisha Lance Bottoms won the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election by 8.6 points. Bottoms secured 2,268,462 votes (54.3%) against Rick Jackson's 1,908,261 votes (45.7%), a margin of approximately 360,201 votes, with 98.6% of ballots counted [1][2]. This victory marked Bottoms as the first Black woman elected governor of Georgia and the first Democrat to win the office since Roy Barnes in 1998, succeeding term-limited Republican Governor Brian Kemp [3][4][2]. The general election occurred on November 3, 2026, following primaries on May 19, 2026, and a Republican primary runoff on June 16, 2026 [5][6][7].
Pre-election analysis indicated a much closer contest than the final result. Rick Jackson, a 72-year-old billionaire healthcare executive, self-funded over $200 million for his campaign and won the Republican runoff against Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, despite Jones having endorsements from both Trump and outgoing Governor Kemp [3][8][9][10][11]. Polling analyst Matt Towery's final InsiderAdvantage poll (October 31-November 2, 2026, n=2,500 likely voters, ±1.96% margin of error) showed Bottoms and Jackson tied at 49% each, projecting a roughly 10,000-vote differential [12][13]. Major election handicappers, including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, rated the race a "Toss-up" through late October 2026, with Sabato's Crystal Ball shifting to "slightly favor Democrats" on November 2 due to early voting imbalances [5][14][15]. Emory University's Bernard Fraga suggested historically high split-ticket voting would be needed to prevent a Bottoms win given Ossoff's lead in the Senate race [14].
Prediction markets, however, showed a stronger Democratic lean by election day. Kalshi indicated a 96.5% probability (96.5 cents) for Bottoms as of November 3, 8:47 PM ET, reflecting a 35-cent shift toward the Democrat in the preceding week [16][17]. Polymarket's pre-election odds for a Bottoms win by 6-9% were 42%, 9-12% at 46%, and 0-3% at 48%; the actual 8.6-point margin fell within the 6-9% bucket [18]. Notably, the 2026 Democratic primary saw higher turnout than the Republican primary, a first since 2006, with Bottoms winning her primary outright with 56.2% of the vote [19][2].
Sources (19)
- 1Election Resultsatlantanewsfirst.com
- 22026 Georgia gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
- 3Live Results: Georgia governor midterm election | PBS Newspbs.org
- 4Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms will win Georgia governor...kesq.com
- 5Georgia gubernatorial election, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 6Elections - electionlineelectionline.org
- 7When is the 2026 Georgia primary runoff? Dates and times to know to cast your vote. - CBS Atlantacbsnews.com
- 8Georgia Runoff Results: Trump's Endorsements Take a Hit (2026)carolinaharvestwines.com
- 9Trump endorsement power faces new test in gubernatorial raceswashingtonexaminer.com
- 10Midterms Monitor: The Donald Went Down to Georgiamidterms-monitor.beehiiv.com
- 112026 Georgia Governor Republican Runoff Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 12Analyst predicts 10,000-vote margin in Georgia governor race | FOX 5 Atlantafox5atlanta.com
- 13It Figures…In Matt Towery and InsiderAdvantage’s Final Public Poll at the End of a 26 Year Career, Georgia’s Governor’s Race has a.3% Separation! InsiderAdvantage’s Final Georgia Governor’s Survey: Lance Bottoms 49, Jackson 49…Ossoff Leads Collins by 7 Points – InsiderAdvantageinsideradvantage.com
- 14Five things to watch in Georgia on Election Day • Georgia Recordergeorgiarecorder.com
- 15Five things to watch in Georgia on Election Day 2026roughdraftatlanta.com
- 16Georgia Governor · Elections Intelligenceelections.ftpadvocacy.com
- 17Georgia Governor margin of victory odds on Kalshi | The Overroundtheoverround.com
- 18Georgia Governor Election Margin of Victory (First Round)polymarket.com
- 19Georgia Primary Results Shape November Matchups - Georgia Asian Timesgasiantimes.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Bottoms, 7+ pts
📈 November 04, 2026: 90.0pp spike
Price increased from 5.0% to 95.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 90.0 percentage point spike in the "Bottoms, 7+ pts" prediction market was the official news announcement of the election outcome. The Associated Press called the Georgia governor's race for Keisha Lance Bottoms at 9:24 PM ET on November 3, 2026, serving as the primary catalyst for the movement on November 4, 2026 [1][2][3]. Bottoms ultimately won with an 8.62 percentage point margin, confirming the "7+ pts" outcome [4][5][6][7]. Social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price surge.
Outcome: Bottoms, 8+ pts
📉 November 03, 2026: 10.9pp drop
Price decreased from 17.0% to 6.1%
What happened: The primary driver of the 10.9 percentage point drop in the "Bottoms, 8+ pts" prediction market contract on November 3, 2026, was the real-time release and solidification of the Georgia Governor election results. As votes were counted, Keisha Lance Bottoms ultimately secured an 8.6 percentage point victory [8], which, while meeting the "8+ pts" condition, likely led to a price adjustment from any earlier market expectations of a wider margin (e.g., Decision Desk HQ's initial projection of an 11-point lead [9]) down to its final settlement near 93.0¢ [3]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver of this specific, election-day price movement.
📈 November 01, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 11.0% to 21.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point spike in the "Bottoms, 8+ pts" market on November 1, 2026, appears to be traditional news reporting on significant electoral trends. The Epoch Times published a major feature on November 1, 2026, highlighting record early voting turnout in Georgia, which likely fueled market participants' increased confidence in a stronger-than-polled performance for Keisha Lance Bottoms [10]. While contemporary public polls suggested a very narrow race for Bottoms, the market seemingly anticipated a more decisive outcome, with Bottoms ultimately winning by an 11-point margin [9][11][12][10]. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular price movement.
Outcome: Bottoms, 1+ pts
📈 October 26, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 52.0% to 61.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike in the "Bottoms, 1+ pts" prediction market on October 26, 2026, was the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) announcing an additional $5 million investment in Keisha Lance Bottoms' gubernatorial campaign [13][14][15]. This substantial financial injection, increasing the DGA's total commitment to over $15 million, directly coincided with the market movement, signaling strengthened support for Bottoms [13][14][15]. While "multiple news and social media events" contributed, the DGA announcement is the most concrete and financially impactful event identified for that date [15][16][17][18]. Social media was likely a contributing accelerant, helping to disseminate news of the DGA investment and other campaign activities, rather than a primary driver itself [15][16][17][18].
Outcome: Bottoms, 5+ pts
📈 October 23, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 11.0% to 21.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 10.0 percentage point spike in the "Bottoms, 5+ pts" outcome on October 23, 2026, was likely the Des Dorsey Friday Wrap reporting on the DDHQ forecast. This report indicated that despite polls showing Rick Jackson slightly ahead on average (Jackson +2.1), the DDHQ model assigned Keisha Lance Bottoms a 51.4% win probability by blending polls with a national environment favoring Democrats, shifting her likelihood from approximately 44% [19]. This re-evaluation by a prominent forecasting model, suggesting a stronger path to victory for Bottoms, likely led traders to increase their expectations for a more substantial margin of victory. Social media activity was irrelevant as no pertinent posts from key figures or viral narratives were identified.
Sources (19)
- 1GA Governor, Georgia: 2026 election results | Movement Voter Projectmovement.vote
- 22026 Georgia governor race election results: Who won...thv11.com
- 3November 3, 2026: Georgia Governor margin of victory Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 4State Election Resultsresults.sos.ga.gov
- 5Keisha Lance Bottoms becomes 1st Black woman elected Georgia governor | AP Newsapnews.com
- 6Georgia Governor Election Results 2026 Live Vote Countsajc.com
- 7Georgia Governor 2026: Live Election Results, Bottoms vs....nytimes.com
- 8Keisha Lance Bottoms wins Georgia governor's race: 2026 Resultspolling-desk.com
- 9Bottoms defeats Rick Jackson, turning Georgia governor’s office bluethehill.com
- 10A Look at Key Battleground Contests for Georgia Governor, Senate | The Epoch Timestheepochtimes.com
- 11It Figures…In Matt Towery and InsiderAdvantage’s Final Public Poll at the End of a 26 Year Career, Georgia’s Governor’s Race has a.3% Separation! InsiderAdvantage’s Final Georgia Governor’s Survey: Lance Bottoms 49, Jackson 49…Ossoff Leads Collins by 7 Points – InsiderAdvantageinsideradvantage.com
- 122026 Polls: Georgia Governor - 270toWin270towin.com
- 13Georgia Governor Odds Flip To Bottoms At 60 Percentelectionodds.com
- 14National Democratic group invests $5M in Bottoms’ bid to become nation’s first Black female governoratlantanewsfirst.com
- 15Can Keisha Lance Bottoms win Georgia’s governor’s race?couriergeorgia.com
- 16Why Georgia candidates are making a frantic final push before early voting ends | FOX 5 Atlantafox5atlanta.com
- 17Georgia governor race: Bottoms on Flock cameras and ICE - WJCLwjcl.com
- 18Ossoff, Bottoms Urge Early Voting at Atlanta Churchhoodline.com
- 19Friday Wrap, October 23, 2026desdorsey.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, the specific contract rules for YES and NO resolution triggers are not explicitly detailed. The market focuses on the "Georgia Governor margin of victory," with individual contracts such as "Bottoms, 13+ pts" or "Jackson, 1+ pts," implying resolution based on the final vote margin for these candidates. The date "Nov 3, 2027" is listed, likely indicating the market's expiration or settlement date. No special settlement conditions are mentioned in this content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bottoms, 2+ pts | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Bottoms, 1+ pts | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Bottoms, 3+ pts | $0.99 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Bottoms, 4+ pts | $0.99 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Bottoms, 6+ pts | $0.99 | $0.06 | 99% |
| Bottoms, 5+ pts | $0.99 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Bottoms, 8+ pts | $0.97 | $0.54 | 98% |
| Bottoms, 7+ pts | $0.97 | $0.04 | 96% |
| Bottoms, 13+ pts | $0.01 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Bottoms, 10+ pts | $0.09 | $0.98 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) won the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election by approximately 8.5-8.6 percentage points, ending over two decades of GOP control [1][2][3]. Prediction markets largely reflected this outcome, with Kalshi's margin-of-victory market showing "Bottoms 8+ points" at 96.9 cents and "Bottoms 6+ points" at 99 cents as of November 4, 2026 [4][5]. This contrasted with some earlier analyses that projected a 50-50 dead heat decided by roughly 10,000 votes [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Election Resultsatlantanewsfirst.com
- 22026 Georgia gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
- 3https://polymarket.com/event/georgia-governor-winner-2026?r=kooespolymarket.com
- 4Georgia Governor margin of victory odds on Kalshi | The Overroundtheoverround.com
- 5Georgia Governor margin of victory Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 6Analyst predicts 10,000-vote margin in Georgia governor race | FOX 5 Atlantafox5atlanta.com
5. Trust Index
Largest single print on KXMIDTERMMOV-GAGOVD-P4 carried 68% of its $3,757 tape (window is 40% of 24h flow)
Integrity risk· Large trades
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score89Strong
Trade quality20% of score82Good
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score87Strong
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How did late-stage polling from sources like InsiderAdvantage contrast with the forecasts from prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket ahead of the November 2026 election?
| Late-Stage Polling Lead (Oct 2026) | Rick Jackson 49% vs Keisha Lance Bottoms 47% [1] |
|---|---|
| Prediction Market Odds (Oct 2026) | Keisha Lance Bottoms 62% chance to win [1] |
| Election Outcome | Keisha Lance Bottoms won on November 3, 2026 [2] |
Late-stage polling and prediction markets diverged on the Georgia governor race. Ahead of the November 2026 election, an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted on October 12-13, 2026, indicated Republican Rick Jackson held a 49% to 47% lead over Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms. This was consistent with other polls showing Jackson leading by 1-3 points, and by October 27, 2026, polling averages placed Jackson ahead by approximately 1.5 points [1]. In contrast, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, on the same date, assigned Keisha Lance Bottoms an estimated 62% probability of winning, highlighting a significant difference between traditional polling and market forecasts [1].
Prediction markets increasingly favored Bottoms despite polling suggesting otherwise. Her Polymarket odds for victory notably increased from 52% to 62% between October 21 and 24, 2026, even though Jackson had been considered the favorite throughout most of October [1]. Traders supporting Bottoms cited various contributing factors, including Jon Ossoff's lead in the Georgia Senate race, higher Democratic primary turnout, national Democratic favoritism for the House, and a general skepticism toward Republican-leaning polling firms [1]. By November 3, 2026, Kalshi's market demonstrated overwhelming confidence in a Bottoms victory, reflecting 98.7% odds for her winning by 2+ points and 93.0% for winning by 8+ points [3][2].
Prediction markets ultimately accurately forecast Bottoms' victory in the election. Keisha Lance Bottoms won the Georgia governor race on November 3, 2026, validating the earlier predictions from the market platforms [2].
Sources (3)
7. What impact did the contentious Republican primary runoff between Rick Jackson and Burt Jones have on GOP voter turnout and cohesion in the November general election?
| General Election Winner | Keisha Lance Bottoms defeated Rick Jackson on November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Total Campaign Spending | Jackson $124.2 million, Bottoms $5.8 million [6][1] |
| Democratic Victory Margin | Approximately 8+ percentage points [7][4] |
The contentious Republican primary fractured the GOP and revealed shifting voter engagement. The Republican primary runoff between Rick Jackson and Burt Jones, which Jackson won on June 16, 2026, left the GOP divided due to Jones's refusal to endorse Jackson [1]. This internal division was compounded by a notable shift in voter engagement, as more Georgians participated in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary in May 2026. This marked the first time such an occurrence had been observed since 2006, indicating stronger Democratic engagement leading into the general election [6][2].
Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms won the gubernatorial election, despite her opponent's massive spending. Keisha Lance Bottoms secured a victory over Republican Rick Jackson in the November 3, 2026 Georgia gubernatorial general election [1][2][3][4][5]. This outcome represented a significant upset, as it flipped the office after 24 years and resulted in Bottoms becoming the first woman and first Black person to be elected governor of Georgia [1][2][3][4][5]. Jackson's defeat came despite an overwhelming financial advantage, having spent over $100 million of his own money in the primary and raising a total of $124.2 million by October 23, 2026, which significantly exceeded Bottoms's $5.8 million [6][1].
Prediction markets accurately forecasted Bottoms's victory, despite conflicting public polling data. Despite polling averages showing Jackson ahead, prediction markets by late October 2026 gave Bottoms approximately 62% odds of winning [6]. The final Kalshi market confirmed a comfortable Democratic victory with a margin of approximately 8+ percentage points [7][4].
Sources (7)
- 1Keisha Lance Bottoms wins the Georgia governor's race...nbcnews.com
- 22026 Georgia gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
- 32026 Georgia governor race election results: Who won...thv11.com
- 4Georgia Governor Race 2026 Odds: Bottoms vs Jackson | Nijinnmidterms.nijinn.io
- 5Georgia Governor winner? Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
- 6Georgia governor race odds: markets back Keisha Lance Bottoms at 62% while the polls show Rick Jackson narrowly aheadpredictdesks.com
- 7November 3, 2026: Georgia Governor margin of victory Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
8. How did Keisha Lance Bottoms's and Rick Jackson's final vote shares in key metropolitan, suburban, and rural counties compare to the 2022 gubernatorial results for Democrats and Republicans?
| Bottoms's Vote Share | 54.3% [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Statewide Margin Shift | 16.6 points toward Democrats [1][2] |
| Suburban Counties Flipped | 6 counties [5] |
Keisha Lance Bottoms won the 2026 Georgia governor's election decisively. She secured victory with 54.3% of the vote, establishing an 8.6-percentage-point margin over Rick Jackson [1][2][3][4]. This result represented a substantial shift in the state's political landscape, as the statewide margin moved 16.6 points toward Democrats, transitioning from an 8-point Republican advantage in the 2022 gubernatorial race to a Democratic lead of 8.6 points in 2026 [1][2].
Bottoms significantly improved Democratic performance in key urban and suburban areas. She demonstrated exceptional gains in major population centers compared to the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial candidate, with increases of +48 in Fulton County, +70 in DeKalb, +33 in Gwinnett, and +22 in Cobb [5]. Furthermore, six suburban counties that had voted Republican in 2022 flipped to Democratic in 2026 due to her strong performance. Notable examples include Fayette County, which shifted from a Republican margin of +13.8 to a Bottoms margin of +3.6, and Houston County, moving from Republican +18.4 to Bottoms +0.8 [5].
Rick Jackson secured strong Republican margins in rural counties despite slight shifts. In 2026, he maintained robust Republican support in these areas, achieving large margins such as R+55.6 in Appling, R+68.53 in Bacon, and R+72.51 in Banks [1][5]. While these margins remained substantial for Republicans, they did exhibit a minor shift toward Democrats when compared to the 2024 presidential results; for instance, Appling County experienced a 6.81-point shift toward Democrats from its 2024 Republican margin of +62.41 [1][5].
Sources (5)
- 1Georgia Governor Election 2026 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
- 2Georgia Governor 2026: Live Election Results, Bottoms vs....nytimes.com
- 3Georgia Governor resultsapnews.com
- 4Georgia Governor Race 2026 Odds: Bottoms vs Jackson | Nijinnmidterms.nijinn.io
- 5Which counties were key to Georgia's blue wave in 2026?11alive.com
9. What do campaign finance disclosures reveal about the spending strategies of Rick Jackson's self-funded campaign versus Keisha Lance Bottoms's fundraising operation in the final quarter of the race?
| Jackson Total Spending | $220 million total [1] |
|---|---|
| Jackson TV & Cable Advertising | nearly $165 million [1] |
| Bottoms Fundraising Surge | $23 million since August 1, 2026 [2] |
Rick Jackson's campaign relied heavily on self-funding and extensive advertising. His campaign finance disclosures reveal a heavily self-funded strategy, with total spending exceeding $220 million, nearly $165 million of which was allocated specifically to TV and cable advertising [1]. This approach aimed to dominate the airwaves through widespread advertising [3], supplemented by substantial investments in direct mail, polling, phone banks, staff, and voter-turnout operations [1]. By October 23, 2026, Jackson's campaign had successfully raised $124.2 million [4].
Keisha Lance Bottoms's campaign leveraged Democratic donor networks for significant fundraising. Her operation capitalized on donor networks and coattail effects [3], experiencing a substantial surge that generated $23 million since August 1, 2026, effectively tripling her campaign's prior fundraising total [2]. This included notable contributions from billionaire donors such as Michael Bloomberg and J.B. Pritzker [5], alongside over $3.6 million in transfers from Jon Ossoff's Senate campaign [6]. Bottoms also maintained a robust small-donor base, with 93% of contributions being under $100 [2]. Despite this late influx of funds, by October 23, 2026, Bottoms had raised $5.8 million, showing a fundraising disparity exceeding 20:1 when compared to Jackson's total funds raised [4].
Sources (6)
- 1How Rick Jackson spent $220M trying to become...ajc.com
- 2News — Keisha for Governorkeishaforgovernor.com
- 3Billionaire Rick Jackson has spent $108 million so far in...ajc.com
- 4Georgia governor race odds: markets back Keisha Lance Bottoms at 62% while the polls show Rick Jackson narrowly aheadpredictdesks.com
- 5Billionaires Bloomberg and Pritzker donate to Keisha...facebook.com
- 6Ossoff reports raising another $33 million for homestretch...georgiarecorder.com
10. What key factors and data did outlets like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball cite when rating the Georgia gubernatorial race a 'Toss-up' in late October 2026?
| Race Rating (late Oct 2026) | Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Black Voters in Early Electorate | Close to 32% (Sabato's Crystal Ball) [4] |
| Jackson's Lead Over Bottoms | Inability to establish consistent lead despite self-funding (Sabato's Crystal Ball) [4] |
Leading outlets consistently rated the Georgia gubernatorial race as a 'Toss-up'. Both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball maintained this assessment for the Georgia gubernatorial race throughout the four-week period from October 6 to October 27, 2026 [1][2][3]. This consistent rating in late October 2026 underscored the election's highly competitive nature.
Several factors maintained the Georgia gubernatorial race's competitive status. Sabato's Crystal Ball specifically identified an increase in Black voters as a critical element [4]. Black voters constituted close to 32% of the early electorate, a rise from 26% in 2024 and 29% in 2022 [4]. Additionally, Rick Jackson's inability to establish a consistent lead over Keisha Lance Bottoms, despite significant self-funding efforts, was another contributing factor to the race's competitive designation [4].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Republican primary runoff on June 16, 2026, was a significant market catalyst [1]. Rick Jackson (52.6%) upset Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (47.4%), causing the Republican Party's implied probability of winning the general election to surge from 48% to 56% in three days across Kalshi and PredictIt [1][2][3]. Jackson's campaign, predominantly self-funded, reported $200.06M in own money and spent over $80M on his primary campaign alone [4][1][5].
Prediction market odds for the Georgia Governor race shifted dramatically closer to the November 3, 2026, general election [6][7][8][9][10][11][8][12]. Keisha Lance Bottoms' price on Kalshi, at 51.5 cents as of October 21, 2026, surged to 69-72% by November 2-3, 2026 [6][7][8][9]. This shift was driven by record early voting, with over 2.3M early votes by October 29, and polling shifts showing the race tightening in her favor [6][7][8][9]. Bullish factors for Bottoms included a D+5 to D+6 generic ballot, Trump approval near -20 net, and strong performance among independents (+8.6 points) and moderates (+26.9 points) [6][13][4][8].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (13)
- 1Republican Party Hits 56% in Georgia Governor Market After Runoff Set | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com
- 2June primary and runoff election resultswtvm.com
- 3Donald Trump-endorsed Burt Jones loses Georgia GOP governor's runoff to Rick Jacksonthehill.com
- 4Georgia Governor · Elections Intelligenceelections.ftpadvocacy.com
- 5Billionaire Rick Jackson Defeats Trump-Backed Burt Jones in Georgia GOP Gubernatorial Runoff | NTDntd.com
- 6Georgia Governor 2026 Odds: Jackson Overtakes Bottoms | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
- 72026 Georgia governor race odds: Kalshi prediction markets show 69% probability for one side of Rick Jackson vs. Keisha Lance Bottomssportsline.com
- 8Georgia Election Odds 2026: Senate and Governor...defirate.com
- 9Georgia Governor Race 2026: Live Odds & Market Trackernextpredict.io
- 10Georgia gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 11Georgia General Election 2026 | Georgia.govgeorgia.gov
- 12Georgia Governor Race 2026: Odds, Candidates and Key Datesvantagepredictions.com
- 13Georgia governor's race is tied as Ossoff leads Senate contest | Wick Researchwick.io
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMIDTERMMOV-IASENR-P2.5: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXMIDTERMMOV-IASENR-P1.5: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXMIDTERMMOV-IASENR-P0.5: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXMIDTERMMOV-KSSENR-P2.5: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXMIDTERMMOV-KSSENR-P1.5: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
