Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Democrats to win Indiana's 7th District by a margin of 34 points or more, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price action is defined by a single, decisive movement. The price began at a floor of 1.0% before experiencing a dramatic upward surge. Following the primary election on May 5, 2026, the probability jumped from 1.0% to over 92% in a very short period. This massive repricing was a direct reaction to the news that incumbent André Carson secured the Democratic nomination. In a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21, the market clearly interpreted the primary victory as the most significant hurdle, effectively settling the likely outcome of the general election months in advance.
After this initial spike, the price has remained stable, establishing a new key level in the 92.6% to 92.7% range. The total volume of 820 contracts indicates a moderate level of trading activity over the life of the market, though the provided sample data points show zero volume during the price consolidation phase. This stability at such a high probability suggests a strong market consensus and unwavering conviction among participants. The chart indicates that market sentiment shifted from uncertainty before the primary to overwhelming confidence in a large Democratic margin of victory in the general election, treating the primary as the de facto deciding event.
  • Recent election results indicate a widening Democratic victory margin.
  • Incumbent Andre Carson shows strong fundraising and primary performance.
  • Indiana's 7th District is considered a safely Democratic area.
  • The 2024 general election showed a 39.3-point Democratic victory.
  • Future statewide races may impact IN-07 voter turnout dynamics.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Democrats, 34+ pts 92.6% 95.0% Incumbent Andre Carson's decisive primary victory and strong fundraising suggest robust performance in this safely Democratic district.
Democrats, 58+ pts 8.6% 7.0% Incumbent Andre Carson's decisive primary victory and strong fundraising suggest robust performance in this safely Democratic district.
Democrats, 37+ pts 0.0% 18.7% Incumbent Andre Carson's decisive primary victory and strong fundraising suggest robust performance in this safely Democratic district.
Democrats, 40+ pts 0.0% 18.7% Incumbent Andre Carson's decisive primary victory and strong fundraising suggest robust performance in this safely Democratic district.
Democrats, 43+ pts 0.0% 18.7% Incumbent Andre Carson's decisive primary victory and strong fundraising suggest robust performance in this safely Democratic district.

Current Context

Indiana's 7th Congressional District is a significant Democratic stronghold. The district, which covers much of Indianapolis, has long been considered a Democratic bastion [1][2]. This is further underscored by its Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of D+21, calculated from the 2020 and 2024 presidential election results [3]. In the 2024 general election, incumbent Democrat Andre Carson secured a commanding victory, receiving 68.3% of the vote (185,733 votes) compared to Republican Schmitz's 29.0% (78,707 votes), resulting in a difference of 39.3 percentage points, or 107,026 votes [4][5][6].
Andre Carson is favored to retain his seat in 2026. Carson, who has served as the district's representative since 2008, will face Republican challenger Patrick McAuley in the upcoming general election [7][8]. In the primaries, Carson received approximately 64% of the vote, defeating Wells who garnered around 22%, while McAuley won the Republican nomination by defeating Rios [7][1]. Current prediction market odds indicate a high probability, with Democrats holding a 92% chance of retaining Indiana's 7th District in the 2026 general election [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Indiana incumbents fend off primary election challengers in congressional races | Journal Reviewjournalreview.com
  2. 2Indiana IN-07 House: 2024 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  3. 3Indiana's 7th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 42024 IN General Election Results - U.S. House District 7indystar.com
  5. 5Indiana U.S. House - District 7 Election Results | Knoxville News Sentineleu.knoxnews.com
  6. 6Indiana's 7th Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7Carson Wins Democratic Nomination in Indiana’s 7th Districtwibc.com
  8. 8Patrick McAuley wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Indiana's 7th Congressional District | Nation/World | gazettextra.comgazettextra.com
  9. 9IN-07 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 May 05, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 9.0%

Outcome: Democrats, 34+ pts

What happened: The primary driver for the 8.0 percentage point spike on May 5, 2026, was the outcome of Indiana's 7th Congressional District Democratic primary election. On this date, Representative André Carson secured the Democratic nomination with a victory margin of approximately 36 to 40 percentage points [1][2], significantly exceeding the prediction market's "34+ pts" outcome. This official result, coupled with Democratic primary voter turnout eclipsing previous totals [2], likely signaled strong support for a substantial Democratic general election margin. No specific social media activity was identified as a primary or contributing driver based on the available information.
Sources (2)
  1. 1indianacitizen.org
  2. 2courthousenews.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Indiana's 7th District by 46 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes upon the publication of certified election results, or by November 3, 2027, 11:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. The margin of victory is calculated as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the next highest candidate, with no rounding, and verified by the official election authority.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Democrats, 34+ pts $0.93 $0.07 93%
Democrats, 58+ pts $0.09 $0.92 9%
Democrats, 37+ pts $0.86 $0.15 0%
Democrats, 40+ pts $0.76 $0.25 0%
Democrats, 43+ pts $0.65 $0.36 0%
Democrats, 46+ pts $0.53 $0.48 0%
Democrats, 49+ pts $0.40 $0.61 0%
Democrats, 52+ pts $0.30 $0.71 0%
Democrats, 55+ pts $0.21 $0.80 0%

Market Discussion

Indiana's 7th Congressional District is a strongly Democratic district, with a D+21 Cook Partisan Voter Index [1], and Representative Carson secured over two-thirds of the vote in both the 2022 and 2024 general elections [2][3]. While Carson won the May 2026 Democratic primary with approximately 60% amidst competitive challengers, prediction markets reflect the district's strong Democratic lean, with one platform showing a 64% chance of a Democratic victory by 43 percentage points or more in the 2026 U.S. House election [4][5][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1ballotpedia.org
  2. 2thehill.comelections2024.thehill.com
  3. 3indianapolisrecorder.com
  4. 4indianacitizen.org
  5. 5kalshi.com
  6. 6kalshi.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 72 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score95Strong
Trade quality20% of score5Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score72Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity95
Structural prior — no screens applyStrong
Info fairness95
Structural prior — no screens applyStrong
Trade quality5
Order book is critically thinAvoid
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Trade quality
5Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 3.5c slippage (~4% of a 95.6c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Carson, 34+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Carson, 58+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 6d

No trades in the last 6d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

6. What do historical election results since the 2020 redistricting indicate for a baseline victory margin in Indiana's 7th District?

2020 Democratic Margin24.8 points (62.4% vs 37.6%) [1]
2022 Democratic Margin33.4 points (67.0% vs 53.6%) [2][3]
2024 Democratic Margin39.3 points (68.3% vs 29.0%) [4]
Historical data suggests a strong Democratic baseline in Indiana's 7th District. Post-2020 redistricting election performance indicates a plausible baseline Democratic victory margin in this district of approximately the high-20s to low-30s percentage points [1][2][3][4]. In 2020, prior to the full impact of the new map, the Democratic candidate secured a 24.8-point margin over the Republican candidate, with votes split 62.4% for the Democrat versus 37.6% for the Republican [1].
The 2022 election showed a significant increase in the Democratic margin. Following the enactment of the post-2020 map, the Democratic margin in 2022 increased to 33.4 points, reflecting 67.0% versus 53.6% in a two-candidate comparison [2][3]. Depending on the handling of third-party votes, another calculation for 2022 yields a 36.3-point two-party margin, with the Democratic candidate receiving 66.9% and the Republican candidate 30.6% [2][3].
This widening Democratic lead continued into the 2024 election. The trend of an increasing Democratic margin persisted, reaching 39.3 points in 2024 [4]. Election results for 2024 showed the Democratic candidate securing 68.3% of the vote compared to 29.0% for the Republican candidate [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Indiana's 7th Congressional District election, 2020 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Indiana's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Indiana U.S. House - District 7 Election Results | The Indianapolis Stareu.indystar.com
  4. 42024 IN General Election Results - U.S. House District 7indystar.com

7. How does Patrick McAuley's candidate profile compare to that of Phillip Schmitz, the 2024 Republican nominee in IN-07?

Patrick McAuley's ProfessionCommercial real estate (development) [1][2]
Patrick McAuley's Political RoleMarion County precinct committeeman [1][2]
John P. Schmitz's ProfessionDecades-long masonry/construction business ownership [3][4][5][6]
Patrick McAuley and John P. Schmitz present distinct candidate profiles. McAuley, a prospective 2026 IN-07 Republican candidate, emphasizes commercial real estate development and grassroots civic engagement, with a campaign focused on policy issues [1][2]. In contrast, the 2024 IN-07 Republican nominee, John P. Schmitz, highlights his extensive background in masonry and construction business ownership, along with previous political campaigns [3][4][5][6].
Patrick McAuley's profile centers on real estate and local grassroots efforts. His background includes involvement in commercial real estate development and active participation as a Marion County precinct committeeman [1]. His campaign strategy emphasizes specific policy areas, such as affordability, public safety, housing, and career pathways [2].
John P. Schmitz's profile highlights his business and political experience. As the 2024 IN-07 Republican nominee, his professional background is rooted in decades of owning masonry and construction businesses [3][4][5][6]. Additionally, Schmitz has prior political campaign experience, having run for Indianapolis mayor and Indiana House District 97 [3][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Patrick McAuley | Focused on commercial real estate development and local grassroots politics.linkedin.com
  2. 2McAuley for the 7thmcauleyforthe7th.com
  3. 3Extended interview: John Schmitz, Republican candidate for U.S. House District 7wfyi.org
  4. 4John Schmitz to face André Carson for District 7 seat in Congressprogress-index.com
  5. 5John P. Schmitz | BallotReadyballotready.org
  6. 6Vote Smart - Facts For Alljustfacts.votesmart.org

8. What impact might Indiana's 2026 statewide races have on voter turnout dynamics for the IN-07 congressional election?

IN-07 Cook PVID+21 (Cook PVI) [1][2]
Marion County May 2026 Primary Turnout15.8% (May 2026 Primary) [3]
Marion County Dem Vote Share (May 2026 Primary)80% (May 2026 Primary) [4]
Indiana's 2026 statewide races will likely impact IN-07's victory margin. These races are expected to influence voter turnout intensity for the IN-07 congressional election, primarily affecting the margin of victory rather than the overall outcome. Given that IN-07 is rated Cook PVI D+21, a Democratic victory is anticipated, a sentiment also reflected in polling and trader expectations [1][2].
May 2026 primary data indicates potential for amplified Democratic turnout. Evidence from the primary shows that Marion County recorded a 15.8% turnout, representing the highest midterm primary turnout since at least 2010 [3]. Democrats accounted for approximately 80% of votes cast in Marion County, a substantial increase from about 60% in both 2018 and 2022, suggesting a highly motivated electorate that could significantly benefit IN-07's Democratic Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts in November [4]. Additionally, the primaries saw a record number of Republican state senators lose, including six who had opposed mid-decade redistricting, pointing to high intraparty conflict within the Republican party [5]. The primaries were also characterized as a referendum on a redistricting 'payback' strategy, which could intensify political mobilization and campaign spending due to widespread statewide political conflict [6][7].
Statewide turnout surges could enhance IN-07's Democratic margins. While congressional races at the top of the ballot typically tend to decrease turnout, if statewide-driven turnout surges occur, and Democratic GOTV efforts are effective, these surges could lead to larger IN-07 margins [8]. This potential is particularly relevant considering a consistent pattern of congressional underperformance at the township level relative to other races [8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Indiana's 7th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2IN-07 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  3. 3Indiana elections 2026: Indianapolis sees higher voter turnoutmirrorindy.org
  4. 4Indianapolis primary voter turnout tops last 4 midterms - The Indiana Commonstheindianacommons.com
  5. 5Record high number of Republican senators lose Indiana primaries - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  6. 6How did Indiana redistricting affect Tuesday primaries?alltoc.com
  7. 7Inside the Indiana GOP's unprecedented 'civil war' over the electioneu.indystar.com
  8. 8From the Top of the Ballot - by Destiny Wellstgfight.substack.com

9. What do the latest FEC filings show about the fundraising and cash-on-hand for Andre Carson versus Patrick McAuley?

André Carson Q4 New Funds$156,400 (as of February 3, 2026) [1][2][3]
André Carson Q4 Cash on Hand$646,300 (as of February 3, 2026) [1][2][3]
Patrick McAuley Fundraising DataNot available from latest FEC filings [4]
Andre Carson's campaign reported significant financial activity in recent disclosures. The incumbent's latest Q4 FEC filing on February 3, 2026, revealed $156,400 in new funds raised and $646,300 in cash on hand as of that date [1][2][3]. This robust financial standing follows an earlier Q3 disclosure from October 15, 2025, which indicated $126,700 in fundraising and $627,100 in cash on hand [5].
In contrast, Patrick McAuley's campaign financial data is largely unavailable. Detailed fundraising and cash-on-hand figures for the Republican nominee are not yet accessible from recent FEC filings [4]. While a "MCAULEY FOR CONGRESS" committee did file a Statement of Organization on April 22, 2026, the FEC website notes that data for 2025-2026 may still be processing or no such activity has been filed for McAuley [4][6]. Andre Carson secured the Democratic primary in May 2026 and previously won the 2024 general election with 68% of the vote [7][8][9], further solidifying his position in Indiana's 7th District, which is rated "Solid D" [2][3].
Sources (9)
  1. 1quiverquant.com
  2. 2quiverquant.com
  3. 3quiverquant.com
  4. 4fec.gov
  5. 5quiverquant.com
  6. 6fec.govdocquery.fec.gov
  7. 7ballotpedia.org
  8. 8wfyi.org
  9. 9mirrorindy.org

10. What does Andre Carson's 2026 primary performance against Jennifer Wells suggest about his current standing with Democratic voters?

Andre Carson 2026 Primary Vote65% (against three challengers) [1][2]
Destiny Wells 2026 Primary Vote22% (runner-up) [1][2]
Info for Jennifer WellsNot available in research [1][2][3]
Information regarding Jennifer Wells' performance against Andre Carson is unavailable. The research does not contain specific details on a 2026 primary matchup between Andre Carson and Jennifer Wells [1][2][3]. However, the available information outlines Carson's primary results against other named challengers, including Destiny Wells. In his 2026 primary, Andre Carson secured approximately 65% of the vote while facing three challengers, with Destiny Wells emerging as the distant runner-up, receiving roughly 22% of the vote [1][2].
The 2026 primary was Carson's most challenging election to date. This election was characterized as Carson's "toughest primary to date," with opponents claiming he was "out of touch" [1][4][5][3]. Despite facing a more competitive field and more credible challenges than in past elections, Carson's decisive victory demonstrates his continued significant support among the Democratic electorate in his district [1][3][6].
Carson's decisive victory affirms his strong support among Democrats. His ability to secure a commanding win despite increased opposition suggests his standing with Democratic voters remains robust.
Sources (6)
  1. 1ground.news
  2. 2wibc.com
  3. 3mirrorindy.org
  4. 4wfyi.org
  5. 5mirrorindy.org
  6. 6substack.comalmanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2024 IN-07 general election results showed André Carson (D) receiving 68.3% of the vote against John Schmitz (R) with 29.0%, resulting in a margin of 39.3 percentage points [1]. Current market probabilities on Polymarket's "IN-07 House Election Winner" event price Democrats at 92% and Republicans at 8% [2]. Kalshi's dedicated IN-07 margin-of-victory market includes a rule tranche requiring a Democratic win by 46+ points for that contract to resolve [3].
Key upcoming dates for the 2026 IN-07 election include the filing deadline on Feb 6, 2026, the primary on May 5, 2026, and the general election on Nov 3, 2026 [4]. Polymarket's resolution for this event is stated to be on or around Nov 3, 2026 [2]. André Carson won the Democratic nomination in the May 5, 2026 primary and is set to face the GOP nominee in November [5][6][4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1Indiana's 7th congressional district - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2IN-07 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  3. 3Indiana's 7th District margin of victory Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
  4. 4Indiana's 7th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Indiana 7th District: André Carson wins Democratic nominationmirrorindy.org
  6. 6Carson Wins Democratic Nomination in Indiana’s 7th Districtwibc.com