Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Democrats to win Michigan's 11th District by 11 or more points, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price chart shows a dramatic upward movement. The probability started at an extremely low 1.0% on May 5 before abruptly spiking to 93.8% two days later, where it has remained stable. This significant repricing likely reflects an initial correction based on the fundamental political landscape of Michigan's 11th District. The provided context establishes the district as heavily favoring Democrats, with a D+9 Cook Partisan Voting Index and a recent 18.6-point victory margin for the Democratic candidate in 2024. The sharp increase from 1.0% to 93.8% suggests the market's opening price was an outlier that was quickly adjusted to align with the strong historical and partisan data indicating a high probability of another significant Democratic win.
A critical aspect of this chart is the trading volume, which is zero. The absence of any traded contracts indicates that the price movement is not the result of buying and selling activity among traders. Instead, the price likely reflects an automated market maker's calculation or an initial estimate that was corrected. Because there has been no trading, there are no meaningful support or resistance levels to analyze. The chart's price points of 1.0% and 93.8% are the only notable levels, representing the anomalous start and the corrected, stable state.
The market sentiment, as represented by the 93.8% price, is one of extremely high confidence in a large Democratic margin of victory. However, this sentiment is not backed by market conviction, as evidenced by the complete lack of trading volume. The price reflects the underlying data that the district is a safe Democratic seat, but without any trading activity, it's an untested theoretical probability rather than a consensus formed through active participation.
  • Qualified Republicans show $0 receipts, likely reducing their competitiveness.
  • Michigan's 11th District has a consistent D+9 Partisan Voter Index.
  • MI-11 appears a strong Democratic stronghold with past large victories.
  • Haley Stevens running for Senate creates an open seat in MI-11.
  • The 2026 gubernatorial race is expected to be a close contest.
  • Jeremy Moss's 2026 fundraising trails previous Democratic nominee's performance.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Democrats, 35+ pts 10.0% 2.0% Republican candidates' $0 in Q1 2026 receipts suggests a wide Democratic margin for the district.
Democrats, 11+ pts 0.0% 10.0% Republican candidates' $0 in Q1 2026 receipts suggests a wide Democratic margin for the district.
Democrats, 14+ pts 0.0% 9.0% Republican candidates' $0 in Q1 2026 receipts suggests a wide Democratic margin for the district.
Democrats, 17+ pts 0.0% 8.0% Republican candidates' $0 in Q1 2026 receipts suggests a wide Democratic margin for the district.
Democrats, 20+ pts 0.0% 7.0% Republican candidates' $0 in Q1 2026 receipts suggests a wide Democratic margin for the district.

Current Context

Michigan's 11th District consistently favors Democrats by a wide margin. In the 2024 election, Democratic candidate Haley Stevens secured 58.2% of the vote (260,780 votes), defeating Republican Nick Somberg, who received 39.6% (177,432 votes), resulting in an 18.6-point victory margin [1][2][3]. The district's partisan lean is further supported by a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of D+9, based on the 2024/2020 presidential election results, which showed Harris receiving 57% of the vote and Trump 41% within the district [4].
The 2026 election cycle is underway with a clear Democratic primary frontrunner. The primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026, with the general election following on November 3, 2026; the filing deadline for candidates passed on April 21, 2026 [4]. In the Democratic primary, Jeremy Moss is currently favored, holding 79% support on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Lines.com, buoyed by strong endorsements and $627,000 in funds raised [5][6][7].
Democrats are heavily favored to retain the seat in the general election. Prediction markets indicate a high probability of a Democratic victory, with Polymarket showing Democrats at 91%, and Kalshi implying greater than 95% odds for a safe Democratic hold, according to 270toWin [3][7]. Major race handicappers also concur, with the Cook Political Report rating the district as "Solid Democratic" and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying it as "Safe Democratic" as of May 2026 [4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Michigan's 11th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Michigan's 11th congressional districten.wikipedia.org
  3. 32026 Michigan House Election Map - 270toWin270towin.com
  4. 4Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Will Jeremy Moss Win the MI-11 Democratic Primary?lines.com
  6. 6MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  7. 7MI-11 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Michigan's 11th District by a margin of 23 percentage points or more, as verified by official election authorities. It resolves to NO if they win by less than 23 points, lose, or tie.

The market opens May 5, 2026, and will close early upon the publication of certified election results, otherwise by November 3, 2027. The margin is calculated without rounding as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus the next highest candidate's, or 100 percentage points if the race is uncontested.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Democrats, 35+ pts $0.10 $0.90 10%
Democrats, 11+ pts $0.94 $0.06 0%
Democrats, 14+ pts $0.84 $0.17 0%
Democrats, 17+ pts $0.76 $0.25 0%
Democrats, 20+ pts $0.62 $0.39 0%
Democrats, 23+ pts $0.53 $0.48 0%
Democrats, 26+ pts $0.42 $0.59 0%
Democrats, 29+ pts $0.32 $0.69 0%
Democrats, 32+ pts $0.21 $0.80 0%

Market Discussion

Michigan's 11th Congressional District, rated "Solid D" with a D+9 PVI, saw the Democratic candidate win the 2024 general election by 18.6 percentage points [1]. For 2026, prediction markets heavily favor Democrats (91%) to win the open seat, with one market offering odds on a Democratic victory by 23+ percentage points, supported by the likely Democratic nominee's significant fundraising advantage over the GOP [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1Michigan House District 11 Election 2024 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
  2. 2MI-11 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com

4. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Sep 22, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 74 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score91Strong
Trade quality20% of score5Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score74Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
87Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 8 below the volume floor — not scored

Moss, 35+ pts—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 8 below the volume floor — not scored

Moss, 35+ pts—
No trading in 6d

No trades in the last 6d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 8 below the volume floor — not scored

Moss, 35+ pts100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
5Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 16.8c slippage (~165% of a 10.2c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

8 below the volume floor — not scored

Moss, 35+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 6d

No trades in the last 6d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 22, 2026

5. How did other Michigan congressional districts with a similar Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+7 to D+11 perform in the 2024 and 2022 elections?

MI-11 Partisan Voter Index (PVI)D+7 (2024 Ballotpedia) to D+9 (2025 Cook via Wikipedia) [1][2][3][4][5]
MI-11 2024 Democratic Margin+18.6 points [5][6][7]
Other MI Districts (D+7 to D+11 PVI)None found [1][4][5]
No other Michigan congressional districts share a similar PVI range. No other congressional districts in Michigan have a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) between D+7 and D+11, which is the range similar to Michigan's 11th District (MI-11), identified as D+7 by Ballotpedia for 2024 and D+9 by Cook via Wikipedia for 2025 [1][2][3][4][5]. Consequently, no information is available from the provided facts regarding how other districts within this specific PVI range performed in the 2024 and 2022 elections [1][4][5].
Michigan's 11th District showed strong Democratic performance in 2024. Representative Stevens, a Democrat, secured a significant victory in MI-11 in 2024, winning by a margin of +18.6 points [5][6][7]. Stevens garnered 58.2% of the votes, while her opponent received 39.6% [5][6][7].
Other Michigan districts with different PVIs showed varied 2024 performances. While no other districts fall within the D+7 to D+11 PVI range, other Michigan congressional districts with different PVIs displayed diverse outcomes in the 2024 elections [1][4][5]. For example, MI-6 (with a D+12 PVI) saw a Democratic margin of +27 points, and MI-3 (with a D+4 PVI) had a Democratic margin of +10 points [1][4][5]. Conversely, MI-7 (with an EVEN PVI) experienced a Republican gain of +3.7 points, and MI-8 (with an R+1 PVI) resulted in a Democratic hold with a +6.6 point margin [5]. The provided facts do not contain specific performance data for Michigan congressional districts for the 2022 election cycle [1][2][3][5][6][7][4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Cook Partisan Voting Indexen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Michigan's 11th congressional districten.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Michigan's congressional districtsen.wikipedia.org
  5. 52024 United States House of Representatives elections in Michiganen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6Michigan House District 11 Election 2024 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
  7. 7Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

6. What do the Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) and recent presidential election results in Michigan's 11th District indicate about the baseline Democratic margin for 2026?

Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI)D+9 (2025 edition) [1][2][3]
2024 Presidential Election MarginD+16.1 percentage points (Harris 57.0%, Trump 40.9%) [4]
2020 Presidential Election MarginD+19.9 percentage points (Biden 59.3%, Trump 39.4%) [5]
Michigan's 11th District shows a consistent strong Democratic preference. The district holds a Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+9, derived from the 2025 edition and reflecting the outcomes of the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections [1][2][3]. Recent presidential contests illustrate this Democratic lean, with the 2024 election showing Kamala Harris receiving 57.0% of the vote against Donald Trump's 40.9%, creating a Democratic margin of 16.1 percentage points [4]. Similarly, the 2020 presidential election saw Joe Biden secure 59.3% to Trump's 39.4%, a substantial difference of 19.9 percentage points [5].
The district is rated Solid/Safe Democratic for 2026 by political handicappers. Major election analysts, including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, have unanimously rated Michigan's 11th District as Solid/Safe Democratic for the upcoming 2026 election cycle [1]. Further reinforcing this assessment, the 2024 House election results indicated Congresswoman Haley Stevens (D) winning with 58.2% of the vote over Republican nominee Marcus Somberg (R), who received 39.6%, establishing a Democratic margin of 18.6 percentage points [6]. These consistent electoral performances across various cycles firmly establish a strong Democratic baseline for the district.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2026 (August 4 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Cook Partisan Voting Indexen.wikipedia.org
  4. 42024 Election Results for Michigan -- RightDataUSA.comrightdatausa.com
  5. 5Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 62024 Election Results for Michigan -- RightDataUSA.comrightdatausa.com

7. What are the early forecasts for Michigan's 2026 gubernatorial race, and how might the top of the ticket impact Democratic turnout in Oakland County for the MI-11 race?

Gubernatorial Poll AveragesBenson 34%, James 30%, Duggan 24% (early 2026) [1]
MI-11 Cook Partisan Voting IndexD+9 (2020 and 2024 presidential results) [2]
MI-11 Democratic Win Probability93% (Polymarket prediction) [3]
Michigan's 2026 gubernatorial election is currently anticipated as a close contest. Early 2026 polls indicate a tight race, with Benson averaging 34%, James 30%, and Duggan 24% among leading contenders [1]. MLive characterized the race as a toss-up in February 2026, also noting the potential for a Democratic wave in midterms against a Trump administration [4]. The primaries are scheduled for August 4, 2026, and the general election is set for November 3, 2026 [5].
Gubernatorial race dynamics could influence the solidly Democratic MI-11 district. A potential "Duggan split" might divide voters in Oakland and Detroit, possibly favoring a Republican gubernatorial victory [6]. Michigan's 11th Congressional District (MI-11) holds a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9 based on 2020 and 2024 presidential results, earning a Solid Dem rating as of May 2026 [2]. Polymarket projects a 93% probability of a Democratic win in MI-11, where the leading candidate shows an incumbent-like lead of over 20 points in polls [3]. The Democratic primary for MI-11 includes candidates Farooqi, Moss, Torres, and Ufford [5]. However, the research does not specify the precise impact of the top of the ticket on Democratic turnout in Oakland County for the MI-11 race beyond this general dynamic [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 12026 Polls: Michigan Governor - 270toWin270towin.com
  2. 2Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3MI-11 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketworldcoin.polymarket.com
  4. 4The Michigan governor’s race is a toss-up. These three things could decide the outcome. - mlive.commlive.com
  5. 5Michigan gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 62026 Michigan Political Predictions — Insights — Truscott Rossmantruscottrossman.com

8. Which Republican candidates have filed for the August 2026 primary, and do any have the fundraising or profile to potentially narrow the general election margin?

Qualified MI-11 Republican CandidatesEthan Baker and Anthony Paesano [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]
Qualified R Candidate Receipts (Q1 2026)$0 for Baker and Paesano [5][9][10]
MI-11 Partisan Voter Index (PVI)D+9, Solid D [3][11]
Two Republicans have qualified for the August 2026 MI-11 primary election. As of the current records, Ethan Baker, the Mayor of Troy and an attorney, along with Anthony Paesano, a business attorney and former Michigan House candidate, are the only qualified Republican candidates for the August 4, 2026 primary election [1]. The deadline for filing for this primary election is April 21, 2026 [3].
Neither qualified candidate has demonstrated significant fundraising ability thus far. As of Q1 2026, FEC and Ballotpedia records indicate that both Ethan Baker and Anthony Paesano have reported $0 in campaign receipts [5]. While Mike Steger was noted with $27,000 in total receipts by one tracker, he did not qualify for the primary election [5].
The district's strong Democratic lean makes a Republican victory unlikely. Michigan's 11th Congressional District is considered strongly Democratic, holding a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+9 and a "Solid D" rating [3]. This indicates no viability for Republican candidates in the general election, and prediction markets anticipate a significant Democratic win in this district [3].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Page.request.domi-boe.entellitrak.com
  2. 2Michigan's 11th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2026 (August 4 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Republican Party primaries in Michigan, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1952100docquery.fec.gov
  7. 7Ethan Baker | Mayor/Attorneylinkedin.com
  8. 8Anthony Paesano | Co Managing Partner @ Paesano Akkashian, PC | Attorney And Counselorlinkedin.com
  9. 92026 U.S. House elections in Michigan district 11 - All politics is local!opencampaign.com
  10. 10Anthony Paesano - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11Fundraising in Michigan's 11th Congressional District | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com

9. How does likely Democratic nominee Jeremy Moss's fundraising and polling in 2026 compare to Haley Stevens's performance at the same point in the 2024 cycle?

Jeremy Moss 2026 Fundraising$781K raised, $510K cash on hand (as of December 31, 2025) [1][2]
Haley Stevens 2024 Fundraising$2.66M raised, $754K cash on hand (as of December 31, 2024) [3][4]
Jeremy Moss Primary Win Probability79% [5][6]
Jeremy Moss's 2026 fundraising trails Haley Stevens's 2024 cycle performance at a comparable point. As of December 31, 2025, Moss's campaign for the 2026 cycle had raised $781,000 and held $510,000 cash on hand [1][2]. This is significantly less than Haley Stevens's fundraising by December 31, 2024, for her 2024 cycle, which showed $2.66 million raised and $754,000 cash on hand [3][4].
Despite lower overall fundraising, Moss shows strong primary and general election prospects for Michigan's 11th Congressional District. He leads the field in primary fundraising within the district [1] and holds a strong primary win probability of 79% [5][6]. His Democratic General Election win probability is even higher, at 91% [7]. In comparison, Haley Stevens secured her primary win in the 2024 cycle with a substantial margin of 74% to 20% [3][4][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Jeremy Moss Leads the Field in MI-11 with Fundraising and Cash Advantage | Jeremy Moss for Congressvotejeremymoss.com
  2. 2Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2026 (August 4 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Haley Stevens For Congress 2024 cycle | FEC Itemizer - ProPublicaprojects.propublica.org
  4. 4Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  6. 6Will Jeremy Moss Win the MI-11 Democratic Primary?lines.com
  7. 7MI-11 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  8. 8Haley Stevens – US Congress – Summary – OpenSecretsopensecrets.org
  9. 9STEVENS, HALEY - Campaign Finance | Who Funds Congresswhofundscongress.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The primary catalyst shaping the MI-11 market is the open seat resulting from Haley Stevens (D) running for Senate [1][2]. Despite this opening, the district is a strong Democratic stronghold, evidenced by its Cook PVI of D+9, a past Biden +20-point victory, and a decade of Democratic holds [3]. Current forecasts from Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections uniformly classify the district as Solid/Safe Democratic [1][3], with Polymarket indicating a 91-93% probability of a Democratic general win [4]. Furthermore, Kalshi margin markets anticipate a Democratic victory by over 23 points [5][6].
Key future events that could solidify or shift probabilities include the Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, and the general election on November 3, 2026 [7][3]. Jeremy Moss appears to be a leading candidate in the Democratic primary, having raised $982K and polling 25-30 points ahead of his competitors [8][9]. Polymarket currently assigns him a 79% chance of winning the Democratic primary [10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (10)
  1. 1MI-11 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  2. 2Michigan U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls - ny timesnytimes.com
  3. 3Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4MI-11 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5Michigan's 11th District margin of victory Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  6. 6Michigan's 11th District margin of victory Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
  7. 7Will Democrats Win the MI-11 House Race in 2026?lines.com
  8. 82026 U.S. House elections in Michigan district 11 - All politics is local!opencampaign.com
  9. 9MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  10. 10MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com