Arizona's 9th District margin of victory
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Republicans to win Arizona's 9th District by 9+ points, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's price action is defined by a single, dramatic upward movement. The price began at a low of 2.0% probability before experiencing a massive spike of approximately 82 percentage points between May 5 and May 7, jumping to a high of 88.0%. Since this peak, the price has slightly settled to its current level of 87.0%. The provided context does not offer a clear catalyst for this specific price spike on May 6; news of the incumbent's win relates to a past election cycle, not a new development corresponding to the chart's timeline.
The total volume of 2,904 contracts suggests moderate trading activity over the market's life, but the sample data points show zero volume during the period of the most significant price change. This indicates the sharp repricing may have occurred on very thin trading volume or was the result of a single large trade moving the market, rather than a broad consensus built through active trading. The price appears to have found a resistance level at 88.0% and is currently consolidating just below it, suggesting this high-80s range is the new perceived value. The overall chart shows an extremely strong market sentiment, reflecting a near-certainty (87.0% probability) that the Republican margin of victory in Arizona's 9th District will be nine points or more.
- Incumbent Republican won 2024 election by a significant 30.6-point margin. Arizona's 9th District holds an R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index. Prediction markets estimate a 30+ point Republican win for 2026. A Republican primary challenge poses the greatest threat to the margin. * Danielle Sterbinsky leads Democratic fundraising; other candidates lack detailed platforms.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 9+ pts | 87.0% | 88.0% | The incumbent Republican won the 2024 election by 30.6 points, confirming a strong district advantage. |
| Republicans, 15+ pts | 73.0% | 74.9% | The incumbent Republican won the 2024 election by 30.6 points, confirming a strong district advantage. |
| Republicans, 12+ pts | 80.0% | 81.5% | The incumbent Republican won the 2024 election by 30.6 points, confirming a strong district advantage. |
| Republicans, 18+ pts | 60.0% | 62.9% | The incumbent Republican won the 2024 election by 30.6 points, confirming a strong district advantage. |
| Republicans, 21+ pts | 51.0% | 54.6% | The incumbent Republican won the 2024 election by 30.6 points, confirming a strong district advantage. |
Current Context
Congressman Paul Gosar secured his 2024 win in a strongly Republican district. While specific vote totals for the exact margin of victory in 2024 are not yet available, Gosar's re-election was confirmed by multiple news outlets [1][2][3][4][5]. This follows his 2022 re-election, where he ran effectively unopposed in the newly redrawn district after no Democratic candidate advanced from the primary, resulting in an unusually high 97.8% reported Republican winning percentage [2][3][6][7][8]. The district's partisan lean, according to the Cook Partisan Voter Index, is R+15, indicating it is 15 percentage points more Republican than the national average in presidential elections [8].
The 2026 elections feature a defined timeline and new candidates for the district. The general election for Arizona's 9th Congressional District is scheduled for November 3, 2026, coinciding with the nationwide midterm elections where all 435 U.S. House seats and 35 U.S. Senate seats will be contested [2][3][4][8]. National primary elections will occur between March 3 and September 15, 2026, with Arizona's 9th District primaries specifically set for July 21, 2026 [2][3][4][8][9]. On the Democratic ballot for the primary are Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward [3][4][8]. Following the general election, the post-election period from November 4, 2026, to January 3, 2027, is designated for certification and transition activities, with the 120th Congress convening on or after January 3, 2027 [2].
Prediction markets favor a Republican victory in the 2026 election. These markets serve as platforms where users can wager money on political outcomes, offering a probability-based forecast that some believe aggregates information more effectively than traditional polling methods [7]. Current prediction markets indicate an 89% implied probability of a Republican candidate winning the 2026 Arizona 9th District general election, reflecting the district's significant Republican lean [9]. However, the use of prediction markets has also drawn scrutiny concerning potential conflicts of interest and issues related to election integrity [7].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Republicans, 18+ pts
📉 May 08, 2026: 29.0pp drop
Price decreased from 89.0% to 60.0%
What happened: Available sources do not document a 29.0 percentage point drop in the "Republicans, 18+ pts" outcome for Arizona's 9th District on May 08, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Consequently, there is no information regarding any social media activity, traditional news, or other market factors that could serve as a primary driver for such a price movement [1][2][3][4]. The district is generally rated R+15 and "Solid Republican" [1]. Based on the provided research, the cause of this specific market movement cannot be determined. Social media activity could not be identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or noise, due to the absence of documented information for this event.
Outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts
📈 May 06, 2026: 82.0pp spike
Price increased from 3.0% to 85.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not confirm an 82.0 percentage point price spike in the "Arizona's 9th District margin of victory" prediction market for "Republicans, 9+ pts" on May 06, 2026 [4]. No sources were found stating this specific market movement or any associated social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that would explain it [4]. Therefore, without evidence of the reported price movement, a primary driver cannot be identified. Social media activity could not be assessed as a driver, accelerant, or noise, given the lack of confirmation for the event itself.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 9th District by 21 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The margin of victory is calculated as the Republican vote percentage minus the runner-up's percentage, with no rounding, and verified by the official election authority responsible for certifying results. The market opens on May 5, 2026, and closes after certified election results are published, or by November 3, 2027, at the latest.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 9+ pts | $0.88 | $0.13 | 87% |
| Republicans, 12+ pts | $0.80 | $0.21 | 80% |
| Republicans, 15+ pts | $0.76 | $0.29 | 73% |
| Republicans, 18+ pts | $0.61 | $0.41 | 60% |
| Republicans, 21+ pts | $0.51 | $0.53 | 51% |
| Republicans, 24+ pts | $0.36 | $0.65 | 36% |
| Republicans, 27+ pts | $0.27 | $0.74 | 27% |
| Republicans, 30+ pts | $0.19 | $0.82 | 0% |
| Republicans, 33+ pts | $0.12 | $0.89 | 0% |
Market Discussion
In the 2024 Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, Republican Paul Gosar won with 65.3% of the vote against Democrat Quacy Smith's 34.7%, a margin of +30.6 percentage points [1]. Prediction markets currently show an 88% implied probability for the Republican candidate to win this race [2]. However, the availability of public discussion content from traders for Arizona prediction markets may be constrained due to ongoing legal challenges, including a judge blocking Arizona's prediction markets gambling case and a district court confirming CFTC authority over derivatives [3].
5. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score95Strong
Trade quality20% of score65Caution
Trust score88Strong
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Market integrity95
Structural prior — no screens applyStrong
Info fairness95
Structural prior — no screens applyStrong
Trade quality65
Order book is thinCaution
6. What do recent polling and fundraising data indicate about Paul Gosar's approval and voter enthusiasm within Arizona's 9th District ahead of the 2026 election?
| Gosar Campaign Cash on Hand | $173,000 (March 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| AZ-09 Cook PVI | R+15 [1][3] |
| 2026 GOP Win Probability (AZ-09) | 88% [2] |
Paul Gosar's approval in his district lacks specific polling data. Current assessments of his approval and voter enthusiasm within Arizona's 9th District are hindered by an absence of specific local polling information [4]. While national favorability reports indicate 10% for Gosar, this figure does not necessarily reflect the sentiment among voters in his home district [4]. Financially, Gosar maintains a significant advantage, with his campaign reporting $173,000 cash on hand as of March 2026, substantially more than the leading Democratic challenger's $67,500 in late 2025 [1][2].
Arizona's 9th District is highly Republican, making it favorable for Gosar. The district is classified as R+15 by Cook PVI, identifying it as the most Republican district in Arizona [1][3]. This strong partisan lean is consistent with Gosar's past electoral success, as he secured 65.3% of the vote in the 2024 general election [5][2]. Prediction markets currently estimate an 88% probability for a Republican victory in AZ-09 in the upcoming 2026 election [2].
Sources (5)
- 1Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2026 (July 21 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2AZ-09 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 3Arizona's 9th congressional districten.wikipedia.org
- 4Paul Gosar popularity & fame | YouGovtoday.yougov.com
- 5AZ-09 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
7. How do the 2026 Democratic primary candidates—Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward—compare on fundraising, policy platforms, and potential to narrow the margin in a heavily Republican district?
| Danielle Sterbinsky Fundraising | Raised $129,443 with $67,000 cash on hand (as of December 2025) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| District Political Lean | R+15 Cook PVI, rated Solid R [3][4] |
| Expected Republican Margin | 30+ points (Polymarket) [5] |
Danielle Sterbinsky leads in fundraising; other candidates lack detailed platforms. As of December 2025, Danielle Sterbinsky stands as the leading Democratic primary candidate in Arizona's 9th District concerning fundraising, having raised $129,443 and possessing $67,000 cash on hand [1][2]. In contrast, neither Keith Lara nor Camelia Ward have reported any fundraising, showing $0 in receipts, and their comprehensive policy platforms are not detailed in the available facts for this early 2026 race [2][6]. Sterbinsky's stated platform focuses on affordable healthcare, the economy, schools, and accountability [1].
Arizona's 9th District is heavily Republican, making a Democratic victory challenging. Arizona's 9th Congressional District is a heavily Republican stronghold, holding a Cook PVI of R+15 and designated as a 'Solid R' district [3][4]. A Republican victory is widely anticipated in the upcoming election, with Polymarket estimating an expected margin exceeding 30 points [5]. The provided research does not include specific comparisons of individual Democratic candidates' potential to narrow this significant Republican advantage [5].
Sources (6)
- 1Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2026 (July 21 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 22026 U.S. House elections in Arizona district 9 - All politics is local!opencampaign.com
- 3Arizona's 9th congressional districten.wikipedia.org
- 4Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 5AZ-09 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 6Gosar's Gotta Go!cameliaforcongress.com
8. Which potential catalysts, such as a primary upset or a significant policy shift by Paul Gosar, pose the greatest threat to the consensus R+15 margin forecast for the November 2026 election?
| AZ-9 Cook PVI | R+15 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Primary Election Date | July 21, 2026 [1][4][2][3] |
| Incumbent Primary Upset Rate | 2.8% since 1970 [5] |
A Republican primary challenge poses the primary threat to the R+15 margin. Arizona's 9th District, the state's most Republican with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, faces a potential upset to its consensus R+15 margin forecast for the November 2026 election [1][2][3]. Incumbent Paul Gosar is being challenged by Teresa Volesky in the primary scheduled for July 21, 2026 [1][4][2][3]. While a primary upset is a tangible threat, such events have historically been low-probability, occurring in only 2.8% of cases for incumbents since 1970 [5]. Currently, details regarding Volesky's campaign strength, platform, or FEC filings for the 2026 cycle are not publicly available [1][6].
Incumbent Paul Gosar's controversial history creates significant vulnerability. Gosar's past controversial stances and actions represent a key vulnerability that a challenger could leverage during the primary [7][8]. He was censured by the House in 2021 for posting a violent animated video and has been associated with far-right figures and conspiracy theories [7][8][9][10]. These issues could be used to portray him as ineffective or too extreme for the primary electorate [7][8]. Incumbents can become vulnerable if perceived as out of touch, or if demographic shifts occur [11][12]. Furthermore, his history of extreme rhetoric, such as past support for "terminating" the U.S. Constitution, which he later deleted, highlights positions that could cause backlash if amplified [13].
9. What do historical election results from 2020 and 2022 for Arizona's 9th District reveal about baseline voter turnout and partisan performance, excluding the uncontested 2022 general election?
| 2020 Democratic Vote Share | 61.6% (217,094 votes) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| 2022 Republican Primary Votes | 102,162 total votes [3][4] |
| 2022 Democratic Primary Votes | 1,815 total votes [3][4] |
Arizona's 9th District showed a significant Democratic advantage in 2020. In the 2020 general election, Democrats secured a notable lead in Arizona's 9th Congressional District. Of the 352,274 total votes cast, Democrats garnered 217,094 votes, representing 61.6% of the total, while Republicans received 135,180 votes, or 38.4% [1][2]. This resulted in a substantial partisan gap of +23.2 points and an 81,914-vote margin in favor of Democrats [1][2].
The 2022 primary cycle featured highly asymmetric partisan engagement. The Republican primary recorded substantial participation with 102,162 total votes, from which Paul Gosar secured 67,340 votes [3][4]. In contrast, the Democratic primary saw extremely low engagement, with only 1,815 total votes, all of which were write-ins [3][4]. This significant disparity in primary turnout led to Democrats not fielding an advancing candidate and establishing a very low engagement baseline for the general election [3][4]. Consequently, any general-election 'margin of victory' was primarily influenced by this mobilization imbalance rather than competitive two-party voting [3][4].
Sources (4)
- 1Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2020 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Arizona U.S. House - District 9 Election Results | Record Searchlightredding.com
- 3Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
10. How have demographic shifts and new voter registrations since the 2022 midterms affected the Cook Partisan Voter Index's R+15 rating for Arizona's 9th District?
| AZ-9 Cook PVI (2025 update) | R+15 (based on 2020/2024 results) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| AZ-9 Cook PVI (previous) | R+16 (based on 2016/2020 results) [1][2][3] |
| District Population (2024) | 916,000 [4][5] |
Arizona's 9th District's PVI recently shifted to R+15. The Cook Partisan Voter Index for Arizona's 9th District was updated in 2025, moving from R+16 (based on 2016/2020 presidential election results) to R+15 (reflecting 2020/2024 outcomes) [1][2][3]. This calculation relies solely on presidential election results and does not directly incorporate voter registration or demographic data [6].
Statewide voter registration trends show significant shifts post-2020. Between 2020 and 2025, Arizona experienced a statewide increase of 94,000 Republican registrations, a decrease of 108,000 Democratic registrations, and a substantial rise of 190,000 Independent registrations [7]. However, the available research does not provide specific data for these voter registration changes within Arizona's 9th District itself.
Demographic data for Arizona's 9th District is available. The district's estimated population for 2024 is 916,000, with a median age of 42.2 and a median income of $80,000 [4][5]. Its demographic makeup includes 57.5% White and 29.9% Hispanic residents [4][5]. The research does not indicate how demographic shifts since the 2022 midterms might have specifically influenced the R+15 PVI rating for Arizona's 9th District.
Sources (7)
- 1AZ-09 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
- 2Arizona's 9th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3Arizona AZ-09 House: 2022 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
- 4Arizona's 9th congressional districten.wikipedia.org
- 5Congressional District 9, AZ - Profile data - Census Reportercensusreporter.org
- 6The Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠) | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
- 7Democrats will pursue new voter registration strategy in Arizona - AZPMnews.azpm.org
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Arizona 9th Congressional District has historically demonstrated a strong Republican lean, with Paul Gosar winning the 2024 election by a ~30.6-point margin, securing 249,583 votes (65.3%) against Quacy Smith's 132,640 votes (34.7%) [1]. This aligns with the district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 for the 2026 cycle, indicating it is 15 points more Republican than the national average [2]. Current probabilities on the "AZ-09 House Election Winner" market show the GOP at 88% and Democrats at 11% [3].
Upcoming key dates for the 2026 election include a filing deadline on March 23, 2026, a primary election on July 21, 2026, and the general election on November 3, 2026 [4][5]. A federal court preliminary decision, reported on May 8, 2026, blocks Arizona from enforcing state gambling laws against prediction markets, citing the CFTC’s authority, which may affect market availability and participation [6].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (6)
- 1Arizona's 9th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Arizona's 9th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3AZ-09 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 4Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 5Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2026 (July 21 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6Federal Court Blocks Arizona From Enforcing Gambling Laws Against Prediction Marketsnatlawreview.com
