Yes
Market Model 9.2% 6.9%
Trump Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (3)
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2029 | 9.2% | 6.9% | Med | 78 | Refresh |
 2026: Trump's dream year? Yes refers to: Yes | 6.0% | 8.7% | Med | 60 | Refresh |
 Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 15.0% | 9.8% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (5)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 96.2% 96.2%
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
No new person
Market Model 55.0% 42.2%
Alina Habba
Market Model 20.0% 11.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | 77 | ||
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes refers to: Yes | 96.2% | 96.2% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | 71 | ||
| — | — | High | 78 | ||
| Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? Top outcome: No new person | 55.0% | 42.2% | High | — |
