220-224
Market Model 3.9% 2.8%
205-209
Market Model 11.1% 13.6%
Trump Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (7)
Yes
Market Model 96.2% 96.2%
54
Market Model 4.1% 3.0%
52
Market Model 12.7% 11.7%
Yes
Market Model 9.2% 6.9%
2026: Trump's dream year? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model 6.0% 8.7%
No new person
Market Model 55.0% 42.2%
Alina Habba
Market Model 20.0% 11.9%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 9.8%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 220-224 | 3.9% | 2.8% | High | 71 | Refresh |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes refers to: Yes | 96.2% | 96.2% | Med | 80 | Refresh |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 54 | 4.1% | 3.0% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2029 | 9.2% | 6.9% | Med | 76 | Refresh |
| 2026: Trump's dream year? Yes refers to: Yes | 6.0% | 8.7% | Med | 61 | Refresh |
| Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? Top outcome: No new person | 55.0% | 42.2% | High | 65 | Refresh |
| Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 15.0% | 9.8% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Polymarket
Extended & Democratic Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Extended & Republican Party
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? Top outcome: Extended & Democratic Party | 0.0% | 0.0% | High | 77 |
