Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for Trump's next Press Secretary: 'No new person' is at 42.2% model versus 55.0% market, suggesting the market may be overstating the likelihood of no new appointment.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This analysis covers the prediction market for a single, unnamed candidate to be Trump's next Press Secretary. The market shows a distinct and rapid downward trend over the period documented. The implied probability for this candidate began at 30% on April 13, 2026, before declining sharply over the next two weeks. The price fell to 26% by April 18 and then settled at its current level of 20% by April 27. The initial price of 30% acted as a resistance level that was not retested, while the current 20% price has established itself as a new support level where the market has found stability.
The provided context includes no specific news or developments that would explain this significant drop in perceived probability. Therefore, the cause of the price decline cannot be attributed to a particular external event based on the available information. The trading volume provides some insight into market conviction. While the total volume is 316 contracts, the sample data points corresponding to the price drop show zero volume. This suggests the price change may have occurred on very low liquidity or was driven by market maker adjustments rather than a wave of active trading, indicating a potential lack of broad market conviction or participation during this re-pricing event.
Overall, the price action reflects a clear negative shift in market sentiment regarding this candidate's chances. The market's assessment of their probability has decreased by a third, from 30% to 20%. The stabilization at the 20% level suggests traders have reached a new, lower consensus on this candidate's prospects, at least for the time being. The downward movement without significant corresponding volume during the sampled period points to a sentiment shift that was not necessarily driven by a high-conviction, high-activity trading event.
- Donald Trump named Karoline Leavitt as transition White House Press Secretary. Trump consistently prioritizes loyalists from his campaign for key messaging roles. Recent reports confirm Alina Habba is not considering the Press Secretary role. Alina Habba primarily functions as Trump's legal defender and public warrior. * There is no direct information linking Scott Jennings to the Press Secretary role.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| No new person | 55.0% | 42.2% | Market higher by 12.8pp |
| Alina Habba | 20.0% | 11.9% | Market higher by 8.1pp |
| Scott Jennings | 47.0% | 36.6% | Market higher by 10.4pp |
| Sage Steele | 1.0% | 1.1% | Model higher by 0.1pp |
| Kari Lake | 1.0% | 1.1% | Model higher by 0.1pp |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 27, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 38.0% to 47.0%
Outcome: Scott Jennings
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 15, 2026: 8.8pp spike
Price increased from 1.1% to 9.9%
Outcome: Scott Jennings
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "No new person" market, a "Yes" resolution occurs if no new White House Press Secretary is appointed or if the current one continues through the expiration date, at which point all markets for named individuals resolve to "No." For named individuals, a "Yes" resolution is triggered if they formally assume the office of White House Press Secretary.
Acting or interim appointments count if formally assumed, with The New York Times verifying the outcome. The market closes early upon a new appointment, or by January 21, 2029, 10:00 AM EST, with payouts expected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| No new person | $0.54 | $0.60 | 55% |
| Scott Jennings | $0.01 | $1.00 | 47% |
| Alina Habba | $0.26 | $0.80 | 20% |
| Jason Miller | $0.07 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Kari Lake | $0.12 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Sage Steele | $0.16 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Steven Cheung | $0.07 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Tucker Carlson | $0.06 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score73Good
Resolution quality is low (65), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score39High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score66Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How Does Scott Jennings Demonstrate Televised Combativeness Pre-Election?
| Primary Role on CNN | CNN's "go-to GOP pundit" and "pugilist" (Sept 2024-election) [1] |
|---|---|
| Question Redirection Success | Effectively "scolding" and "breaking" CNN panels [2] |
| Frequency of Appearances | Highly frequent on adversarial networks (Sept 2024-election) [1] |
Scott Jennings frequently appears on adversarial networks, particularly CNN, during the pre-election period. Between September 2024 and the election, Jennings has been a highly consistent presence, especially on CNN, where he is regularly described as the network's "go-to GOP pundit" and a "pugilist," highlighting his regular and combative role. News reports from October and November 2024 further emphasize his sustained visibility during this crucial timeframe [1].
Jennings effectively redirects hostile questions into attacks on media or political opponents. He demonstrates a high success rate in this regard, with sources detailing instances where he "scolded" CNN panels. He has been observed challenging narratives by citing CNN's own reports as his source [2]. Furthermore, Jennings has been noted for "shock[ing] panel[s]" by defending fiery interviews with political figures and has reportedly "completely BREAK CNN Panel[s], Multiple Meltdowns Ensue" through his combative style, successfully challenging the network's established narratives [3].
7. Who Did Trump Campaign Leadership Prefer For White House Press Secretary?
| Campaign Leadership | Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita (Senior Advisors, Co-Campaign Managers) [1] |
|---|---|
| White House Press Secretary | Karoline Leavitt (Appointed Nov 15, 2024, after active campaign role) [2] |
| Top Surrogate | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Late Oct 2024, campaigned in battleground state) [3] |
Core campaign leadership showed clear preference for Karoline Leavitt. Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, serving as senior advisors and co-campaign managers for the 2024 Trump campaign, played a crucial role in strategic decisions, including the assignment of surrogate positions [1]. Karoline Leavitt's significant involvement, described as working "in the heart of the Trump campaign" [4], directly preceded her appointment as White House Press Secretary on November 15, 2024. This selection strongly indicates the core campaign leadership's implied preference for her in that specific role [2].
Other prominent figures served as surrogates; frequency data is limited. During the final two months of the campaign, Sarah Huckabee Sanders was recognized as a "top surrogate" for Trump, actively campaigning in a key battleground state in late October 2024 [3]. Similarly, Kellyanne Conway appeared on the high-profile Guy Benson Show to discuss a presidential debate on September 10, 2024 [5]. While comprehensive frequency data for all potential candidates is not available, Leavitt's ultimate selection for Press Secretary following her active campaign role remains the most definitive indicator of the campaign leadership's preference for her in that capacity [2].
Sources (5)
- 1Who are Trump's top presidential campaign aides?reuters.com
- 2Karoline Leavitt, youngest White House press secretary, takes to the podiumthin.npr.org
- 3Gov Sanders hits campaign trail as top surrogate for Trump in key battleground state: 'Going full-speed ahead'foxnews.com
- 4Karoline Leavitt: Working in the Heart Of The Trump Campaign | The Untold Storyradio.foxnews.com
- 5Kellyanne Conway on Tonight’s Presidential Debate: “The Stakes Are Very High… Debates Are Part of the Lifeblood of Our Democracy” | Guy Bensonradio.foxnews.com
8. How Does Donald Trump Prioritize Loyalty in Personnel Selection?
| Personnel Priority | Loyalty above all else [1] |
|---|---|
| Press Secretary Background | Internal campaign or RNC communicators [2] |
| Desired Staff Profile | Unequivocal "MAGA loyalists" [3] |
Donald Trump consistently prioritizes loyalty, especially for roles demanding strict message adherence. This principle is paramount for staffing a potential second administration, aiming to avoid conflicts experienced during his first term [1]. Anticipated appointments are expected to be "MAGA loyalists" who unequivocally support his objectives [3].
Trump's past Press Secretary selections demonstrate a pattern of elevating proven loyalists. His first Press Secretary, Sean Spicer, previously served as the Republican National Committee's communications director [2]. Kayleigh McEnany, another Press Secretary, was a former Trump campaign spokesperson and a recognized loyalist [2]. More recently, Karoline Leavitt, a campaign spokesperson, was nominated for the Press Secretary role in a prospective second Trump administration [4]. These choices highlight a clear preference for individuals from within his existing campaign or closely aligned communication structure with a demonstrated history of fidelity.
Internal campaign loyalists are favored over high-profile external personalities for messaging roles. Individuals like Steven Cheung or Jason Miller, who are deeply integrated into the campaign's communications and have a history of consistent messaging, align with Trump's preferences for roles requiring the sublimation of a personal brand to the President's messaging. This approach diverges from selecting high-profile external figures such as Kari Lake or Tucker Carlson. While potentially loyal, these individuals might possess strong personal brands that could overshadow or deviate from the President's precise message, a dynamic Trump has historically sought to avoid by surrounding himself with dedicated loyalists [1].
9. Is Alina Habba Being Considered for White House Press Secretary?
| Primary Role | Trump's aggressive legal defender and public voice [1] |
|---|---|
| Media Profile | High due to defense attorney role [1] |
| Press Secretary Role | Not considering or in the running [2] |
Alina Habba primarily functions as Trump's legal warrior and public defender. She is widely perceived as an aggressive defender, often serving as Donald Trump's voice both within and outside the courtroom, specifically defending him in various legal battles, including civil lawsuits and criminal investigations [1]. Her role consistently involves a high degree of media visibility, where she articulates Trump's legal positions and engages with the press in that capacity [1].
Speculation about Habba becoming Press Secretary has recently been dismissed. While her media visibility is undeniable due to her extensive legal work [1], recent reports from November 2024 indicate she is not pursuing or is no longer being considered for the position [2]. Though she was at one point identified as a frontrunner for Trump's White House Press Secretary [3], more current information states she is not in the running for it [4]. A transition to a purely communications-focused role like Press Secretary would represent a significant shift from her established and active primary legal skillset [1]. However, the latest available information points away from such a move, confirming she is not a current prospect for the position [2].
Sources (4)
- 1Who is Alina Habba? Defense attorney is Trump's voice in and out of court - ABC Newsabcnews.com
- 2Trump attorney Alina Habba not considering press secretary role | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
- 3Alina Habba Emerges as Frontrunner for Trump’s White House Press Secretarythedailybeast.com
- 4Alina Habba not in running for Donald Trump's White House press secretarythehill.com
10. Who did Donald Trump select as White House Press Secretary?
| Selected Individual | Karoline Leavitt [1] |
|---|---|
| Designated Role | White House Press Secretary [2] |
| Announcement Source | Donald Trump, via Trump-Vance Transition Press Release [1] |
Donald Trump named Karoline Leavitt as his White House Press Secretary, an announcement made public through a Trump-Vance Transition Press Release [1]. This selection indicates she will oversee press and communications operations for the official presidential transition team immediately following the election [2]. Leavitt’s appointment to this transitional role is considered a strong leading indicator for her potential permanent appointment as White House Press Secretary [1].
Leavitt previously served as a campaign aide and spokesperson for Donald Trump [3]. The formal announcement of her new role as White House Press Secretary was widely reported by numerous news outlets [2]. This strategic decision positions Leavitt to effectively manage communications during the critical post-election transition period leading up to the new administration [1].
Sources (3)
- 1Trump-Vance Transition Press Release - President Trump Announces Karoline Leavitt as White House Press Secretary | The American Presidency Projectpresidency.ucsb.edu
- 2Trump taps Karoline Leavitt for White House press secretarynbcnews.com
- 3Trump picks campaign aide Karoline Leavitt for White House press secretaryreuters.com
