Short Answer

Beau Bayh is likely to win the Indiana Secretary of State election in 2026, with the market pricing this outcome at 95.0%, significantly above the model's 76.6% probability.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The primary price move in this market, a 17.0 percentage point drop on August 31, does not coincide with any specific reported news or development. Research into the shift from 46.0% to 29.0% found no credible driver to explain the repricing.
This move occurred on zero reported volume. The market's overall trajectory has been downward since opening at 49.0%, with total traded volume at a low 221 contracts. The lack of volume accompanying the main price shift suggests it may not reflect a change in active trader sentiment based on new information. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
  • Since last update (~124d): Beau Bayh's market probability surged +27.0pp, flipping the edge as the market led the move.
  • Max Engling's model probability increased +4.9pp, compressing the edge as our model led this shift.
  • Our confidence decreased by 3.0pp, and the overall edge shifted -19.1pp.
  • Beau Bayh maintains a significant financial advantage over Max Engling.
  • Bayh entered the final phase with $2 million cash on hand.
  • Market probability for Bayh spiked 40.0pp on August 31, 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Max Engling 29.0% 23.4% Max Engling, a relatively unknown challenger, faces an uphill battle due to limited financial resources and grassroots support.
Beau Bayh 95.0% 76.6% Beau Bayh benefits from strong name recognition, a fundraising advantage, and robust Democratic party organization.

Current Context

The general election for Indiana Secretary of State is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Voter registration closes on October 5, 2026. Early voting for the election runs from October 6 to November 2, 2026 [5][6].
Max Engling secured the Republican nomination at the June 20, 2026 convention. Engling defeated incumbent Diego Morales, Jamie Reitenour, and David Shelton at the Republican state convention [1][3][2][7][8]. The confirmed candidates for the general election are Max Engling (R), Beau Bayh (D), Lauri Shillings (L), Greg Ballard (Independent/Lincoln Party), and Andrew Delano (write-in) [1][5][3][4][9].
Prediction markets indicate an open contest following the nomination change. As of August 2026, political analysis and prediction markets describe the Indiana Secretary of State election as an open contest [10][11]. Candidates are engaged in debates on issues including voting rules and office audits [5].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Open general election contest for Indiana Secretary of State after Republican incumbent defeated at convention - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  2. 2Indiana Secretary of State election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  3. 32026 Indiana Secretary of State electionen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Indiana state executive official elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Indiana secretary of state hopefuls clash over voting rules, office auditwfyi.org
  6. 6Indiana 2026 Elections: Races, Ballot Measures, and Pollingwhatsonmyballot.info
  7. 7Indiana Secretary of State election, 2026 (June 20...ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Banks-endorsed adviser wins Republican nomination for Indiana Secretary of State at party convention - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Indiana elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  10. 10Indiana Secretary of State winner? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  11. 112026 Indiana Secretary of State Winner by Party | Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 31, 2026: 40.0pp spike

Price increased from 55.0% to 95.0%

Outcome: Beau Bayh

What happened: Research indicates there is no credible reporting or evidence of a 40.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price for Beau Bayh on August 31, 2026, for the "Indiana Secretary of State winner?" market [1]. Given the absence of evidence for such a price movement, no primary driver, including social media activity, can be identified [1]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with Beau Bayh as the Democratic nominee [2][3][1]. Based on the available information, social media activity is irrelevant as a driver for this unconfirmed price spike.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Open general election contest for Indiana Secretary of State after Republican incumbent defeated at convention - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 Indiana Secretary of State electionen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Indiana Secretary of State - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market asks about the winner of the Indiana Secretary of State election. A "Yes" contract for a specific candidate resolves positively if that candidate wins the election, and a "No" contract resolves positively if they do not. The market event begins on November 3, 8:00 AM EST, with resolutions determined by the officially declared winning party.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Beau Bayh $0.89 $0.47 95%
Max Engling $0.47 $0.70 29%

Market Discussion

The 2026 Indiana Secretary of State general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and no winner has been determined as of August 31, 2026 [1][2]. Max Engling won the Republican nomination at the state convention on June 20, 2026, defeating incumbent Diego Morales [1][2][3][4], while Beau Bayh secured the Democratic nomination on June 6, 2026 [1][5]. As of late August 2026, prediction markets indicate a highly competitive race, with Beau Bayh and Max Engling showing comparable odds, around 54% and 51% respectively [6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1Indiana Secretary of State - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 Indiana Secretary of State electionen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Open general election contest for Indiana Secretary of State after Republican incumbent defeated at convention - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Banks-endorsed adviser wins Republican nomination for Indiana Secretary of State at party convention - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Indiana Secretary of State election, 2026 (June 6...ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Indiana Secretary of State winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 79 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score54Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 85% of the price to slippage.

Trust score79Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
70Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first

Max Engling70
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 44% vs realized 2%
Beau Bayh—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
70Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

2 contracts · worst first

Beau Bayh70
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 7d

Max Engling—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Beau Bayh95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Max Engling95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
54Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 70 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 22.4c slippage (~42% of a 53c contract)

$1,000 order: 34.4c slippage (~65% of a 53c contract)

$10,000 order: 45.3c slippage (~85% of a 53c contract)

Beau Bayh–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality70Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
70 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 7d

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Max Engling70Market scoreLiquidity70Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 70
Liquidity
70 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 44% vs realized 2%
Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 22, 2026

6. How do Max Engling's and Beau Bayh's stated policies on voting regulations and election integrity compare ahead of the 2026 election?

Engling's Audit PledgeHas not pledged to perform an independent audit of the Secretary of State's office [1][2][3]
Bayh's Audit PledgePledged to conduct an independent audit of the Secretary of State's office [1][2][3]
Engling's Election FocusStrengthening "election integrity" through various reforms [1]
Republican candidate Max Engling and Democratic candidate Beau Bayh hold significantly different perspectives on voting regulations and election integrity ahead of the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election. Engling primarily focuses on reinforcing "election integrity" through various reforms, while Bayh emphasizes increasing voter turnout and upholding the overall security of existing electoral systems [1].
Max Engling advocates for several conservative election reforms to enhance what he terms "election integrity." His proposals include stringent voter roll maintenance, robust identification requirements, and supporting federal initiatives like the SAVE Act to prevent non-citizen voting [1]. Engling also suggests restricting voting exclusively to citizens, closing primaries to prevent crossover voting, enhancing oversight of business fraud, and establishing a transparency portal for election-related issues [1][4]. A key differentiator is that Engling is the sole candidate who has not committed to an independent audit of the Secretary of State's office [1][2][3].
Beau Bayh's platform emphasizes boosting voter turnout and safeguarding existing electoral system security. Bayh's proposals include safeguarding early voting options and implementing citizen-led ballot initiatives [1]. He asserts that Indiana's current electoral systems are generally secure and dismisses claims of widespread fraud as unfounded [1]. Bayh, along with other candidates, has pledged to conduct an independent audit of the Secretary of State's office to address concerns regarding past corruption and inefficient spending [1][2][3]. He has also framed the incumbent's and Republican platform, which Engling aligns with, as representing corruption and a misuse of taxpayer funds, positioning himself in opposition to the prevailing Republican approach to voting laws [1][4][2][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Indiana secretary of state hopefuls clash over voting rules...indianacapitalchronicle.com
  2. 2INCREASED VISIBILITY: 4 candidates share viewpoints at public forum in once-overlooked SOS race - THE INDIANA CITIZENindianacitizen.org
  3. 3Democrats select their secretary of state nominee this weekend. Here who's runningbluewaterhealthyliving.com
  4. 4Open general election contest for Indiana Secretary of...news.ballotpedia.org

7. What does historical election data for Indiana's Secretary of State office suggest about the general election prospects for a non-incumbent Republican like Max Engling?

Indiana Political LeanReliably Republican in statewide elections [1]
SOS Office Republican ControlSince 1994 [2][3]
Max Engling StatusNon-incumbent, defeated incumbent on June 20, 2026 [4][5][6][7][2][8]
Max Engling benefits from Indiana's strong Republican alignment and history. As the Republican nominee for Indiana Secretary of State in 2026, Engling benefits from Indiana's historical status as a reliably Republican-leaning state in statewide elections [1][9][10]. The Republican Party has continuously held the Secretary of State office since 1994 [1][2][3]. Indiana consistently votes Republican in statewide races, having supported Republican presidential candidates in 26 out of 31 elections since 1900, including the last three [9][10]. This strong partisan alignment benefits Engling in what is considered a solidly red state [11]. Engling secured the Republican nomination for the 2026 election after defeating the incumbent at a party convention on June 20, 2026, campaigning on a platform of "election integrity," conservative values, and transparency [7][2][8][4][12][6].
Despite Republican strength, Engling faces an open race as a non-incumbent. Historical Indiana election data highlights incumbency as a significant advantage [11]. However, Engling is a non-incumbent, having defeated the incumbent at the Republican State Convention [4][5][6][7][2][8]. The 2026 race is described as an open general election contest, featuring candidates Beau Bayh (D), Max Engling (R), Greg Ballard (I), and Lauri Shillings (L) [2]. Media attention and fundraising leadership are split among Bayh, Engling, and Ballard [2].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Indiana — Elections 1892–2024 — Akashicakashic.app
  2. 2Open general election contest for Indiana Secretary of...news.ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Indiana Secretary of State election, 2022ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Republicans choose Max Engling in upset for secretary of...wfyi.org
  5. 5Meet the Secretary of State Candidate: Max Englingwlfi.com
  6. 6Q&A: Max Engling's top campaign priority is 'election integrity'bluewaterhealthyliving.com
  7. 7Indiana Secretary of State election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Banks-endorsed adviser wins Republican nomination for...news.ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Indiana Secretary of Stateballotpedia.org
  10. 10Indiana Secretary of State election, 2022 (June 18 Republican convention) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11INDIANA 1998 ELECTIONSdev.followthemoney.org
  12. 12Indiana secretary of state hopefuls clash over voting rules...indianacapitalchronicle.com

8. Which key endorsements from state and federal officials could most impact the race between Beau Bayh and Max Engling before November 2026?

Senator Banks' EndorsementMax Engling (U.S. Senator Jim Banks) [1][2][3]
U.S. Rep. EndorsementsMax Engling (Erin Houchin, Victoria Spartz, Jim Baird) [1][2]
Bayh EndorsementsNo specific high-profile state or federal official endorsements identified [4]
High-profile endorsements have not decisively shifted the Bayh-Engling race. As of August 31, 2026, no specific high-profile state or federal official endorsements have been widely identified as decisively altering the momentum of the contest between Beau Bayh and Max Engling [4]. The available information does not specify any high-profile state or federal official endorsements for Beau Bayh. The race has, however, garnered attention for its focus on election integrity and partisan control [4].
Max Engling has secured notable federal official endorsements. U.S. Senator Jim Banks has endorsed Engling, withdrawing his support for the incumbent and presenting Engling as a more viable candidate to beat Democrat Beau Bayh [1][2][3]. Additionally, several U.S. Representatives, including Erin Houchin, Victoria Spartz, and Jim Baird, have publicly endorsed Max Engling for Indiana Secretary of State [1][2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Indiana Republican Secretary of State Race 2026fox59.com
  2. 2Indiana Republicans split over SOS candidatesindianacitizen.org
  3. 3Indiana GOP delegates often defy kingmakers | Journal Reviewjournalreview.com
  4. 4Open general election contest for Indiana Secretary of...news.ballotpedia.org

9. What do the latest campaign finance reports reveal about the fundraising strength and donor bases of Max Engling and Beau Bayh?

Beau Bayh Cash on Hand$2.3 million as of June 30, 2026 [1][2][3]
Max Engling Cash on Hand$150,000 as of June 30, 2026 [1][2][3]
Robert Johnson Contribution to Bayh$300,000 [1]
Democrat Beau Bayh maintains a significant financial advantage over Max Engling. Bayh entered the final phase of the campaign with approximately $2.3 million in cash on hand as of June 30, 2026, in contrast to Max Engling's reported $150,000 for the same period [1][2][3]. Bayh's donor base includes substantial individual contributions, such as Robert Johnson's $300,000, and $100,000 each from Andy Bursky, Cynthia Simon Skjodt, and Dan Webb [1]. Additionally, Bayh has received support from labor organizations, including Ironworkers Local 395 [1].
Max Engling's campaign faced scrutiny regarding a large, subsequently returned contribution. Engling's campaign attracted attention for receiving a $60,000 donation from a dark money group associated with U.S. Sen. Jim Banks, which exceeded Indiana's $5,000 corporate contribution limit [4][5][6]. His campaign stated that these funds were returned [4][5][6]. Engling secured the Republican nomination at the June 20, 2026, convention, having received backing from high-profile Republicans, including U.S. Sen. Jim Banks and Attorney General Todd Rokita [7][8]. Beyond these details, specific, detailed campaign finance dollar figures or comprehensive breakdowns of donor bases for these 2026 candidates are not available in the existing research [7].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Beau Bayh - Indiana Candidatetransparencyusa.org
  2. 2Independent tops spring secretary of state fundraising...indianacapitalchronicle.com
  3. 3Democrat Beau Bayh's campaign ended the second...facebook.com
  4. 4Engling campaign says it returned $60K donation from...indianacapitalchronicle.com
  5. 5'Baseless': GOP Secretary of State candidate responds to...indianapublicradio.org
  6. 6Why GOP Secretary of State Candidate Max Engling Returned a $60K Campaign Donation - WIBC 9AM-Noon Podcast on Tapesearchtapesearch.com
  7. 7Open general election contest for Indiana Secretary of...news.ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Banks-endorsed adviser wins Republican nomination for...news.ballotpedia.org

10. What does the defeat of incumbent Diego Morales at the GOP convention indicate about party unity for Max Engling heading into the general election?

Engling Delegate Vote53% [1][2][3]
Convention DateJune 20, 2026 [1][4][5][2]
Nomination BallotSecond ballot [1][2][3]
Incumbent Diego Morales's defeat indicates strong party unity for Max Engling. Morales was defeated at the GOP convention, a shift driven by top party leaders, including Attorney General Todd Rokita and U.S. Senator Jim Banks, who consolidated their support behind Engling [1][5][2][6][4]. This move stemmed from concerns about Morales’s electability in the November 3 general election following multiple controversies [7].
Max Engling secured the nomination on the second ballot with 53% of the delegate vote. Engling, a former staffer for U.S. Sen. Jim Banks, achieved this victory during the June 20, 2026, Indiana Republican State Convention [1][2][3]. His campaign prioritized election integrity and professionalism. Morales’s tenure was characterized by controversies, including scrutiny over office spending, hiring practices, and no-bid contracts, which contributed to his convention defeat [7].
Engling is positioned as the clear favorite for the general election. This unified backing from influential party figures, replacing an incumbent deemed controversial and less electable, strengthens Engling's prospects against Democratic nominee Beau Bayh, Libertarian Lauri Shillings, and independent candidate Greg Ballard [7]. According to prediction markets and political analysts as of August 2026, Engling is expected to win [8][9]. The party's decision demonstrates a strategic consolidation to enhance their chances in a race that has gained increased prominence due to its focus on voting laws and election integrity [7].
Sources (9)
  1. 1ENGLING NOMINATED: Republican convention delegates...indianacitizen.org
  2. 2Republicans choose Max Engling in upset for secretary of...wfyi.org
  3. 3Q&A: Max Engling's top campaign priority is 'election integrity'bluewaterhealthyliving.com
  4. 4Engling captures Republican bid for Indiana secretary of...indianacapitalchronicle.com
  5. 5Indiana Republicans nominate Max Engling for secretary of state at GOP Convention in Fort Wayne | WANE 15wane.com
  6. 6Banks-endorsed adviser wins Republican nomination for...news.ballotpedia.org
  7. 7Open general election contest for Indiana Secretary of...news.ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Indiana Secretary of State winner? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  9. 92026 Indiana Secretary of State Election: Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, features four primary candidates: Max Engling (Republican), Beau Bayh (Democratic), Greg Ballard (Independent), and Lauri Shillings (Libertarian) [1][2][3][4]. This contest is open, as the Republican incumbent, Diego Morales, was defeated by Max Engling at the June 20, 2026, Republican convention [1][2]. The general election has not yet occurred as of August 31, 2026 [5][1][3][6].
Broader factors affecting prediction markets for the 2026 US midterm elections, including the Indiana Secretary of State race, encompass presidential approval ratings, generic ballot polling, fundraising metrics, economic indicators such as inflation and unemployment, and unforeseen political events [7][8][9]. Current market forecasts as of late August 2026 generally indicate a divided Congress, with Democrats often favored in the House and Republicans expected to retain the Senate, though specific prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket show variations [10][9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (10)
  1. 1Open general election contest for Indiana Secretary of State after Republican incumbent defeated at convention - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 Indiana Secretary of State electionen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Indiana state executive official elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Indiana secretary of state hopefuls clash over voting rules, office auditwfyi.org
  5. 5Indiana Secretary of State election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Indiana Secretary of State - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 72026 Midterm Prediction Markets: What lessons can we take from 2024 election?ipredicta.co
  8. 82026 Midterm Prediction Markets: Senate, House, and Gove… | Alphascopealphascope.app
  9. 9Same Midterm Question. 8-Point Gap. | Predictions.iopredictions.io
  10. 102026 US Midterms: Prediction Markets Price the Senate | Duel Duckduelduck.com

13. Related News

+40.0pp
Last updated: August 31, 2026, 12:27 UTC

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